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COVID19/4 Keep calm and wash your hands


Which Tyler

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Second and third deaths in Sweden, in fairly rapid succession. Both older people with comorbidities, as was the first. More to come in the following days. We also had our second person officially listed as recovered, but haven’t got any information on it.

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I watch the Johns Hopkins tracker fairly closely and the total worldwide is about to jump over the total in China.

I lost my job back in February and had been driving Uber till I found a new one.  I’m scheduled to start work 3/30.  I emailed to confirm that is still the case on Friday and haven’t heard back.

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1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said:

Just heard a new poll says 60% of Americans think the worst has not yet come. It begs the question, what do the other 40% think? Are they just tuned out, or do they think it’s fake news?

And just recently we were discussing the fact that many people live from pay cheque to pay cheque. How are these people going to pay rent and utilities, credit card bills, car payments, mortgage payments etc etc if everything gets shut down? Will landlords evict tenants? You know some will.

Two answers: There’s a guy here at work who thinks this will all be blown over in a month. I don’t share his optimism. 
 

Our gas/electric company is suspending collections for overdue accounts for the undisclosed future. The major internet company is offering free basic service to those below a certain income both so they can get news and so their children can do online schooling,  but as I said before some areas of my county are not wired for cable and have no access to WiFi. 

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36 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

I’m watching CNN and all the Americans were saying they saw restaurants and bars were crowded last night as well. That’s exactly how the virus is going to spread.

It was also pointed out that 300 ICU patients in France are younger than 50.

Thanks to our coronatourism the Netherlands closed all their restaurants and bars. Or maybe the Dutch government preferred to put the blame on the Belgians than to say it was a necessary measure. 

11 toddlers/babies are sick in Belgium.

Belgian prosecutors are now investigating possible fraud by our 'Turkish supplier' of mond masks... Bye, bye delivery :wacko::blink: 

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13 minutes ago, Whitestripe said:

There’s a guy here at work who thinks this will all be blown over in a month. I don’t share his optimism.

There is a strategy where this all blows over in a month, but it has a staggering death toll attached to it.

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16 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I lost my job back in February and had been driving Uber till I found a new one.  I’m scheduled to start work 3/30.  I emailed to confirm that is still the case on Friday and haven’t heard back.

I’m not sure about the US but the U.K. government mentioned they had had talks with Uber and Deliveroo about supplying food from stores to people who were isolating. But to be fair, I strongly suspect the lack of other business will outweigh that.

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Really good presentation here on the outbreak in Wuhan and what worked in the province after the outbreak - some of those graphs after the quarantine was implemented are startling - it also raises the really good point on the issues with self isolation of potential cases, and how the Chinese had a proper system in place.

 

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We are up to 331 confirmed cases here in Greece, and 4 fatalities. As of yesterday they've stopped testing every potential case in public hospitals. People with mild symptoms are asked to stay home and contact their doctors, because only severe respiratory cases and people with covid19 symptoms AND serious preexisting conditions will be tested from now on. So the actual case number is actually a lot higher than that, but not actively recorded. People with mild symptoms can still get tested in private clinics but a prohibitive cost to the average Greek citizen.

The government closed all schools and unis last Wednesday, in an effort to prevent Greece turning into hte next Italy, since we have the second largest elderly population in Europe. Since that day, they've also closed theaters, cinemas, playgrounds, libraries, gyms, museums, archeological sites, malls, salons, cafes, restaurants, public beaches... you name it, it's closed, but for regular stores, pharmacies and supermarkets. Everything has been cancelled. Churches are still open but that's expected to change tomorrow. Supermarkets will only allow a certain amount of people in at the same time, starting tomorrow, to avoid large crowds. There doesn't seem to be a shortage of anything on the shelves, not even toilet paper! Well, except antiseptic wipes and liquids, obviously. We've closed borders with neighboring countries and stopped flights to Italy. And Spain. I think.

People are asked to stay in, especially the elderly and all people with children. Work from home if possible. In my case, the school system was in no way prepared for online teaching and they are now scrambling to set something up, with dubious possible results. So for now, I'm sitting here minding the boys and trying not to get cabin fever already. I've been running an actual low grade fever for 3 days -probably random FirstGrader Germs. DalThor has switched both the lessons he's attending and the ones he's teaching to skype and zoom and he is fine.

We are hoping that getting such strict measures so early on will hopefully help the county avoid the worst, but it's going to be hell on the economy. Right as things were finally getting a bit better too, damn it. But it can't be helped. The State has various measures in place to help with the situation, from special paid leave for the people who have to stay home and mind their kids to a special benefit to the people who just found themselves unemployed, because their businesses had to close etc

Not everyone seems to be taking this seriously enough. The day after schools closed, playgrounds were full. After they closed the playgrounds, people flocked to parks and beaches and cafes and restaurants... so they all had to close, to help contain this. Stay home, they keep telling us. There's a hashtag and everything...  We'll see how the next week or two play out.
 

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11 minutes ago, mashiara said:

Not everyone seems to be taking this seriously enough. The day after schools closed, playgrounds were full. After they closed the playgrounds, people flocked to parks and beaches and cafes and restaurants... so they all had to close, to help contain this. Stay home, they keep telling us. There's a hashtag and everything...  We'll see how the next week or two play out.

Same situation as in Belgium. 

They closed now the 'coffeeshops' in the Netherlands - shops where they sell weed, not coffee :P - big rows of Dutch people wanting to buy their last weed.

I think they already bought their storage of toilet paper.

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Just heard another survey on CNN: 86% of Democrats are worried a family member could get infected with Covid-19, only 53% of Republicans have concerns.

Folks on their panel were saying Congress members told them they were getting angry phone calls from voters about the attention the virus was getting, when the President said the news reports were overblown and everything was under control.

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37 minutes ago, ljkeane said:

Sorry to hear about your job Scot. I hope it goes ok over the next few months.

I echo ljkeane, Scott.

~~~~~~~~~~~

Dr William Hanage is a professor of the evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease at Harvard.

"I’m an epidemiologist. When I heard about Britain’s ‘herd immunity’ coronavirus plan, I thought it was satire"

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/epidemiologist-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19

 

Quote

 

....We talk about vaccines generating herd immunity, so why is this different? Because this is not a vaccine. This is an actual pandemic that will make a very large number of people sick, and some of them will die. Even though the mortality rate is likely quite low, a small fraction of a very large number is still a large number. And the mortality rate will climb when the NHS is overwhelmed. This would be expected to happen, even if we make the generous assumption that the government were entirely successful in restricting the virus to the low-risk population, at the peak of the outbreak the numbers requiring critical care would be greater than the number of beds available. This is made worse by the fact that people who are badly ill tend to remain so for a long time, which increases the burden.

And of course you can’t restrict it to this age group. Think of all the people aged between 20 and 40 who work in healthcare, or old people’s homes. You don’t need many introductions into settings like these for what we might coyly call “severe outcomes”. In Washington State, nearly all the deaths reported so far have been associated with nursing homes. Is everyone in a high-risk group supposed to withdraw themselves from society for six months until they can emerge once the (so far entirely imaginary) second wave has been averted?

About that second wave: let me be clear. Second waves are real things, and we have seen them in flu pandemics. This is not a flu pandemic. Flu rules do not apply. There might well be a second wave, I honestly don’t know. But vulnerable people should not be exposed to a virus right now in the service of a hypothetical future.... [more information follows about symptoms and incubation and timelins of the virus]

 

 

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FFS, scot.  much sympathy.  gonna hang out your shingle and do the small firm thing?

 

Private rental agreements are going to be killer though, but if the problem becomes widespread it may not be practical for landlords to evict tenants en mass

there're reasonable ways to handle this.  district court in new orleans has supended all eviction hearings until late april. our water board has also suspended disconnections.

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