Jace, Extat Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 1 minute ago, DMC said: When I'm experiencing existential angst I too like to ponder the highest questions - like what is the meaning of life and why do political science departments distribute teaching assignments in such a way? The paradoxes of prescience weigh upon me. To know one's future is to be ensnared by it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said: Political and financial too Send me all your monies and I make number 1 universities in all of US and A!!! (Clearly, I just finished the new Borat.) 1 minute ago, Jace, Basilissa said: The paradoxes of prescience weigh upon me. To know one's future is to be ensnared by it. Well that is your burden Jace. Have no fear, Tom Cruise will protect you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrackerNeil Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 1 hour ago, Jaxom 1974 said: Not terribly trusting of the Lincoln Project's long game...but seeing their lawyers eviscerate Jared and Ivanka tonight over the threat to sue about the giant billboards that got put up in Times Square... *chef's kiss* That's what has made me highly suspicious of the Lincoln Project. I get that they oppose Trump, but if they agree with all of his policies, they are not our allies; we simply have the same enemy. For now. I'll work with them, of course, but I never deceive myself that our common ground will last longer than The Donald. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, DMC said: Send me all your monies and I make number 1 universities in all of US and A!!! (Clearly, I just finished the new Borat.) I mean I'm watching The Craft, so who am I to speak? (I fell asleep to it last night, it was funny every 10 minutes) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varysblackfyre321 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 2 hours ago, IheartIheartTesla said: The partisan lean of a state depends on demographics (for PA it is Northeastern tilt of the state versus Appalachian), and the relation of those demographics to the candidate. For that reason I cant imagine there being significant changes in the former coupled with Biden doing worse compared to Clinton. Note that Biden grew up in Scranton, near some counties that went heavily for Trump in 2016, so that should help him shave some of those margins too. In that sense, we can still somewhat anchor the results of PA to the national lead IMO. Thats a little misleading. He was born there, his family stayed there for a couple years before moving,abd coming back, and finally moving permantely when biden was 10. Also Trump is from New York. I don’t think he’ll be doing better in the state than he did in 2016. And in four years of MAGA, I think it’d be reasonble to expect the trends that crippled Clinton, would continue to elongate the shift. The trends of uneducated whites getting redder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varysblackfyre321 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/10/24/politics/2020-election-young-voters/index.html“Polling data and high levels of voter engagement indicate 2020 may bring out a wave of young voters, experts say.” I’d like to believe this quite frankly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 9 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said: The trends of uneducated whites getting redder. Except Biden is doing significantly better than Hillary among uneducated whites, especially women. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JGP Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 46 minutes ago, TrackerNeil said: That's what has made me highly suspicious of the Lincoln Project. I get that they oppose Trump, but if they agree with all of his policies, they are not our allies; we simply have the same enemy. For now. I'll work with them, of course, but I never deceive myself that our common ground will last longer than The Donald. Mmn. Seems to be about palatability and avoiding long term damage. But, they'll both eat out the ass out of a dead rhino. The Lincoln Project has qualms with Trump's low brow lack of refinement, and that he doesn't use the right cutlery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaxom 1974 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 47 minutes ago, TrackerNeil said: That's what has made me highly suspicious of the Lincoln Project. I get that they oppose Trump, but if they agree with all of his policies, they are not our allies; we simply have the same enemy. For now. I'll work with them, of course, but I never deceive myself that our common ground will last longer than The Donald. Exactly. I know that it's mainly a old school Republican club...but some of the Dems need to see about getting some of their marketing and social media types into their stables to combat what ever the Lincoln Project will be going for, assuming some are mercenary enough to work for the other side... How they react and act the first months into a Biden presidency will say a whole lot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varysblackfyre321 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 Okay this article by Silver had been briefly touched upon the last thread, but I still don’t see hoe his model could just show Biden at 86 at this stage of the election. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-chances-are-dwindling-that-could-make-him-dangerous/ “Furthermore, the mere passage of time helps Biden in our model, because every day that Trump doesn’t gain ground is a day when his fate becomes slightly more sealed. (Lots of people have already voted!) Case in point: In an election held today — Trump has no more time to make up ground — his chances would be 9 percent, not 21 percent, according to our forecast.“ It seems to me if Silver is right his model should show biden in the 90s. @DMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varysblackfyre321 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foxnews.com/politics/kelly-deny-arizona-senate-adolf-hitler-photo.amp“Mark Kelly's campaign vehemently denied uncorroborated claims that photos, recently published by a conservative news site, show the former NASA astronaut dressing up for Halloween as Nazi dictator Adolf Hitler.” I’m going to point to this whenever a conservstive cries that liberals and leftists ard to quick to yell racist without evidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martell Spy Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 Lou Dobbs goes after Lindsey Graham: 'I don't know why anyone' would vote for him https://thehill.com/homenews/media/522567-lou-dobbs-goes-after-lindsey-graham-i-dont-know-why-anyone-would-vote-for-him Quote Fox Business host Lou Dobbs on Friday went after Sen. Lindsey Graham (S.C.), asking why anyone would vote for the Republican lawmaker just weeks before his hotly contested election. Dobbs lashed out at the Senate Judiciary Committee chairman for “not subpoenaing the left-wing heads of the censorships Twitter and Facebook until after the election.” “I don’t know why anyone in the great state of South Carolina would ever vote for Lindsey Graham. It’s just outrageous,” Dobbs said. “This is the guy who keeps saying, ‘Stay tuned.’ He said he would get to the bottom of Obamagate with the Judiciary Committee, which has been a year and a half, actually longer, of absolute inert response to these pressing issues of our day.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 15 hours ago, Gaston de Foix said: I believe Trump was actually considering doing a rally for Graham in SC. But this is exactly what Harrison needs, so bless you Dobbs. Please keep eating your own. Call him Grahamnesty a few more times on Fox. He brings higher COVID numbers with him everywhere he goes. He’s fucking Typhoid Mary. I hope he stays well away from South Carolina... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castellan Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 I'm getting nervous. "closing the gap in battleground states" the headlines say. Two weeks seems like a log time when that is happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaston de Foix Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 10 hours ago, Jaxom 1974 said: Not terribly trusting of the Lincoln Project's long game...but seeing their lawyers eviscerate Jared and Ivanka tonight over the threat to sue about the giant billboards that got put up in Times Square... *chef's kiss* Yup, it's funny. They obliterated Kasowitz's letter in their response. Yet more evidence these people care more about their personal profiles than anything else. I distinguish between those who were Never Trumpers from the start and those who joined after Trump's term started (the George Conways). The former may be men of principle such as George Will, but those who knew who Trump was and supported him anyway, not really sure why they went through such a Damascene conversion. Anyway, my sense is the Lincoln project is a way for the ad makers to raise a lot of dough and make fat consulting fees, keep high public profiles, keep themselves in the game, and troll Trump. I find it amusing, but I'm not wasting my hard earned dollars on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ran Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 What I love best about the billboard stunt from the Lincoln Project is that you know Kushner and Trump imagine they'll just be able to waltz right back into NYC's liberal high society, and visual reminders of their association with this shambles of a presidency will, hopefully, help to make it that much harder. I think someone remarked that this sort of thing wouldn't really bother someone like Don Jr., because he's never really been part of that set and seems more comfortable with his self-image as a rugged outdoor sportsman guy, but for sure Jared and Ivanka have been working over time to try and spin things as positively as possible for their images because they do care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 7 hours ago, Martell Spy said: Lou Dobbs goes after Lindsey Graham: 'I don't know why anyone' would vote for him https://thehill.com/homenews/media/522567-lou-dobbs-goes-after-lindsey-graham-i-dont-know-why-anyone-would-vote-for-him The snake keeps eating its own tail..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 36 minutes ago, Ran said: What I love best about the billboard stunt from the Lincoln Project is that you know Kushner and Trump imagine they'll just be able to waltz right back into NYC's liberal high society, and visual reminders of their association with this shambles of a presidency will, hopefully, help to make it that much harder. I think someone remarked that this sort of thing wouldn't really bother someone like Don Jr., because he's never really been part of that set and seems more comfortable with his self-image as a rugged outdoor sportsman guy, but for sure Jared and Ivanka have been working over time to try and spin things as positively as possible for their images because they do care. The ironic thing is all Trump ever wanted is to be accepted by NYC's high society in Manhattan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IheartIheartTesla Posted October 25, 2020 Author Share Posted October 25, 2020 There haven't been any quality polls out of SC regarding the Senate race since NYT/Siena came up with theirs on Oct 15 (+6 Graham), although Morning Consult did put Harrison up +2 a week later. Regarding the gap narrowing in battleground states, it depends on your definition of battleground, I guess. From here on it depends on a large extent to how Republican turnout will be on election day. Eventually, PA (to give an example) will have the Democrats with a 1 million vote lead once all mail-in ballots are counted. Iowa, like was mentioned before, requires high turnout from the GoP to compensate as well. Other states are similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaston de Foix Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 Interesting article about Florida: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/24/republicans-florida-early-vote-democrats-432135 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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