Covid 19-31 The Mutants Are Coming

[Fragile Bird]

There’s been a series of articles in the WaPo showing how the conversation about the origin of the virus has changed. China must be more transparent.

[Maithanet]

What do you guys think about this theory, which might be called a middle ground between the "animal jumping" and "lab leak" theories. 

China took SARS very seriously. The Wuhan coronavirus lab was one of the results of that.  They were doing research on coronaviruses* and doing things like going into caves across China to find virus samples for that work.  Somehow one of those Wuhan researchers became infected (no system is perfect), but given what we know about COVID-19, they didn't immediately realize it because it was either asymptomatic or mild.  This unnamed researcher is patient zero and they go back to Wuhan and people in Wuhan start getting sick.  This explains why the viruses sequenced in caves around Wuhan don't have signatures similar to COVID-19. 

Now, whether this qualifies as a "lab leak" is kind of debateable, IMO.  But to me IF this really was medical research then there really isn't a lot of blame to go around here. 

 

*Obviously it matters whether this research was purely medical (to be ready for another SARS) vs potentially bioweapon related.  At this time there is no way to know this, but we cannot and should not simply assume the worst. 

[HoodedCrow]

Mistakes are so much more likely than a convoluted bio terrorism plan. Coverup is another issue. Did anyone think, oh, this virus would be ideal for unleashing on the world? More, oops, we have an asymptomatic or mild virus that seems like a flu, and it will be over if we just soldier through. ( where have I heard that?) Then they slowly realize that it’s spreading and actually lethal in severe cases. The horse was already out of the barn. We still don’t know enough about it. 

[Mlle. Zabzie]

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

What do you guys think about this theory, which might be called a middle ground between the "animal jumping" and "lab leak" theories. 

China took SARS very seriously. The Wuhan coronavirus lab was one of the results of that.  They were doing research on coronaviruses* and doing things like going into caves across China to find virus samples for that work.  Somehow one of those Wuhan researchers became infected (no system is perfect), but given what we know about COVID-19, they didn't immediately realize it because it was either asymptomatic or mild.  This unnamed researcher is patient zero and they go back to Wuhan and people in Wuhan start getting sick.  This explains why the viruses sequenced in caves around Wuhan don't have signatures similar to COVID-19. 

Now, whether this qualifies as a "lab leak" is kind of debateable, IMO.  But to me IF this really was medical research then there really isn't a lot of blame to go around here. 

 

*Obviously it matters whether this research was purely medical (to be ready for another SARS) vs potentially bioweapon related.  At this time there is no way to know this, but we cannot and should not simply assume the worst. 

Actually, great hypothesis.  Someone should look into it.

[JoannaL]

2 hours ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

A balanced article (IMO) about the man-made origin theory of COVID-19: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/27/did-covid-come-from-a-wuhan-lab-what-we-know-so-far

tl; dr still not enough clarity, the Chinese government needs to be more open, might be years before we know for sure (for instance, identifying the intermediate animal host that caused the jump to humans could be one way)

Thank you for the interesting article. Yes, china needs to be more open. If the lab leak theory were true (as in accidentally setting free a bat corona virus which was sampled to study against Coronavirus diseases) then there can be not much blame for this. It would be tragic and the scientists or care taker or construction builder or whoever carried it out would be extremely sorry.

BUT what makes me angry is that there is no good investigation into this and it seems that there also will not be one in the future. We NEED to know how this happened. The Wuhan virological institue has level 4 biosecurity level  (the highest securety for the highest risk viruses) there arent that many labs in the world , its the only one in China. But Wuhan is a big city. Is it wise to have these kind of research in big cities? Thats a question the world would discuss today . In Germany e.g. we have an institute for contagious animal diseases on an island (because - you know its to dangerous to have this research around), BUT one of our own level 4 biosecurity institutes is in a city (Marburg, which found and investigated the deadly Marburg virus). If the lab theory were true and if it were proven already,  the scientific community would discuss today how to do this research safer. Perhaps they would decide for stronger safety measures or to not have this kind of research in cities any longer , perhaps also only on islands with quarantine ships for the scientists when they leave. Perhaps if this would be discussed and implemented today, a deadly virus which will escape otherwise next year in a level 4 in Paris or London will then only escape in the arctis? this is what I mean that it is  important for mankind to know.

Same goes for the wet market theory. If it were proven, wet markets around the world could be better monitored or closed.

but the investigations into this are hampered and blocked and for this there should be a LOT of blame.

 

[Fragile Bird]

I saw some video taken in Wuhan and there are a number of research labs within blocks of this level 4 lab. It’s quite the research area.

[RhaenysBee]

All right, I do hope this thing goes through me quickly because damn I feel like shit. And I need to work tomorrow. 

[Week]

We are the dumbest country.

https://www.wsmv.com/news/tennessee/woman-arrested-after-driving-through-east-tennessee-vaccination-site/article_86aaba0e-be46-11eb-a595-1f08e9de0fe8.html

[Frey family reunion]

So, I'm kind of pissed.  I downloaded an app provided by my state, which among other things allows you to get proof of your vaccination on your phone.  Only when I tried to download the proof, nada, nothing.  

So I went to my State's department of health website, put in my info, and nada, nothing.  No proof that I've ever been vaccinated.  Now I have the card that I was given when I got vaccinated, but it's kind of disturbing to me that my State's department of health doesn't have any record of my vaccination.  My guess, is that could end up biring me in the ass later on.  

So, has anyone else had this issue, and if so, what did you do about it?  There doesn't seem to be any contact numbers on the State's website for me to call directly, and the other help features on the website have come proven to be of no help.

I guess I'll head to the place I got vaccinated and see what's going on. (Of course that place being a grocery store, with an attached pharmacy, and not exactly the brightest employees in the world, I'm not terribly hopeful)

[rotting sea cow]

1 hour ago, RhaenysBee said:

All right, I do hope this thing goes through me quickly because damn I feel like shit. And I need to work tomorrow. 

Make sure you can take the day off. Didn't you have COVID not long ago? I've read that the recommendation is to wait at least three months after the infection, otherwise side effects tend to be stronger. Which vaccine btw? I number of people I know have taken AZ and well, they have felt pretty bad for few days.

 

[Frey family reunion]

1 minute ago, rotting sea cow said:

Make sure you can take the day off. Didn't you have COVID not long ago? I've read that the recommendation is to wait at least three months after the infection, otherwise side effects tend to be stronger. Which vaccine btw? I number of people I know have taken AZ and well, they have felt pretty bad for few days.

 

I've heard a few horror stories (well mild horror stories) from people who took Moderna as well.  It seems to be worse for women in a certain age group for some reason.  

[rotting sea cow]

4 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

There’s been a series of articles in the WaPo showing how the conversation about the origin of the virus has changed. China must be more transparent.

The lab leak hypothesis has been always something to consider. What changed is that Biden is the president and not Trump, otherwise it might still be conspiracy. It's the way it is, for reasons that I cannot understand, but as soon as Biden was in the WH the story started to gain momentum. I noticed and reported that.

Wuhan labs must come clear, as well as other labs, including one in North Carolina where the only attenuated (live) SARS1 vaccine was being developed.

 

[Frey family reunion]

7 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

The lab leak hypothesis has been always something to consider. What changed is that Biden is the president and not Trump, otherwise it might still be conspiracy. It's the way it is, for reasons that I cannot understand, but as soon as Biden was in the WH the story started to gain momentum. I noticed and reported that.

Wuhan labs must come clear, as well as other labs, including one in North Carolina where the only attenuated (live) SARS1 vaccine was being developed.

 

Well that and and a number of virologists came out quickly to try and dispell the possibility.  The problem of course is a number of these virologists had a vested interest in the research the Wuhan lab, and other labs like it were conducting.

And any scientific push back against their position was probably a bit muted because of Trump's stance.  I think there is a natural repulsion for many rational people to seemingly endorse anything that Trump was championing.

[Zorral]

2 hours ago, RhaenysBee said:

All right, I do hope this thing goes through me quickly because damn I feel like shit. And I need to work tomorrow. 

You should be able to have the day off if your vaccination has given you this kind of reaction.

I guess ... it depends on which state you live?

[Raja]

I'm deeply skeptical of a lab leak theory regarding the origins of the virus, and pretty much completely against an 'engineered virus'. The WSJ article linked earlier talked about staffers being ill in the lab, the link in question then said 'were sick enough to go to hospital' ( paraphrasing), even though within the same article it is mentioned that "It isn’t unusual for people in China to go straight to the hospital when they fall sick"

The WHO's report had the following

Quote

The joint team’s assessment of likelihood of each possible pathway was as follows:
• direct zoonotic spillover is considered to be a possible-to-likely pathway;
• introduction through an intermediate host is considered to be a likely to very likely pathway;
• introduction through cold/ food chain products is considered a possible pathway;
• introduction through a laboratory incident was considered to be an extremely unlikely pathway.

A lot of the furor around this is influenced by the way scientists & health care professionals talk about things such as this, as seen above, it is referred to as 'likely' 'possible', 'extremely unlikely' - this is the way scientists & health care professionals talk and a lot of it is spun to make that 'extremely unlikely' lab incident becoming 'equally likely' to natural origin. I was reading this piece regarding all this, and I think it captures it well

Quote

So, figuring out where this particular virus came from will be a challenge. It can take years, decades, or more to find the source of a virus. Ebola, for instance, was identified in 1976, has caused multiple epidemics, and we still don’t really know what animal it spilled over from. To confirm beyond a reasonable doubt the virus’s origins, we’d have to sample wild animals and sequence the viruses they carry to find a close genetic relative, an astronomical task, haystacks within haystacks. In the absence of a smoking gun, there’s still good research that points in one direction. Take the phylogenetic analysis in preprint this week that, once again, suggests bats as a reservoir for SARS-CoV-2, with pangolins or civets as possible intermediate steps. 

If the question is “are both hypotheses possible?” the answer is yes. Both are possible. If the question  is “are they equally likely?” the answer is absolutely not. One hypothesis requires a colossal cover-up and the silent, unswerving, leak-proof compliance of a vast network of scientists, civilians, and government officials for over a year. The other requires only for biology to behave as it always has, for a family of viruses that have done this before to do it again.

The above, coupled with Florian Krammer's comments here regarding how the situation played out with MERS ( below)

Quote

No, not a short period of time. It took a year to make the (pretty obvious) link to camels for MERS CoV. Also, it took years to find the true origin of the H1N1 of 2009. It is still a mystery how the Eurasian avian-swine lineage ever made it to Mexico. 1st MERS case reported: April 2012 Link to camels published August 2013 Sometimes this takes time. While bats are suspected, we still have no confirmation of the reservoir of the Zaire ebolavirus (first case recorded 1976). Not for the lack of trying.

So again, I find it highly unlikely, but I'm totally for the WHO investigating further if it feels the need to.

However, I think we have to keep in mind that China is probably not going to be completely forthcoming regarding *everything* related to sars cov 2. china is an authoritarian state and will likely not be fully transparent - The piece in Science by several health experts called for research laboratories to 'open their records to the public', unfortunately, I just do not think this will happen with China.  I think we sort of have to accept that that is going to happen.

 

[Clueless Northman]

WHO Scientists who went to China were quite vocal once US media misreported on their findings, stating that China was pretty much more open than they actually expected it - as in, they wouldn't have been entirely surprised to be stalled and not to be able to investigate in some places. Though alas, as long as we haven't find an intermediate host, the debate will go on.

About some Wuhan scientists getting sick in some bat caves, I have to wonder what kind of precaution they take when exploring to seek unknown dangerous viruses.

  

1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

I've heard a few horror stories (well mild horror stories) from people who took Moderna as well.  It seems to be worse for women in a certain age group for some reason.  

Moderna 1 gave me a quite sore arm, which quite hurt (definitely more than any previous vaccine, and I had a good deal of them), which began after a few hours and lasted for basically 40 hours, then it came down. Other than that, just a little bit higher temperature and very light lightheadedness (quite normal immune reactions I had a few times with other vaccines). Then a bit less than 48h after the jab, the annoying but not too painful sensation went down in a few hours; the day after, I could punch my upper arm and barely feel a thing.

I hope Moderna 2 won't be worse. I'll get it on my other arm, to limit the hurt to my muscle.

[HoodedCrow]

The late Anthony Bourdain visited a bat cave. He was up for lots of local color, but I understand that he was very upset about how gross and difficult it was. He was also upset when a local group took him on a squid fishing expedition( he gets sea sick) and threw frozen ones into the water. But I think he fired the bat cave producer?

[RhaenysBee]

12 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Make sure you can take the day off. Didn't you have COVID not long ago? I've read that the recommendation is to wait at least three months after the infection, otherwise side effects tend to be stronger. Which vaccine btw? I number of people I know have taken AZ and well, they have felt pretty bad for few days.

 

I work from home anyways, so I’m just checking into a couple calls. But I’ll definitely log out shortly after lunch and sleep. I did, I had it 3 months ago. Told that to the GP and the doctor who administered the vaccine, they said 11 and a half weeks after my original recovery was fine. I got Moderna, a few colleagues claim they also experienced stronger side effects, and someone suggested it may be because Moderna isn’t as diluted as Pfizer? No idea. I feel much better today, I’m just very tired. 

12 hours ago, Zorral said:

You should be able to have the day off if your vaccination has given you this kind of reaction.

I guess ... it depends on which state you live?

I’m sure I could take the day off and write it off as a sick day, but that’s a whole lot of administration for little extra comfort. I’m basically lying down and logging into a couple calls. 
I don’t think vaccination days are “covered” here, though students do get a day off for it. 

[Which Tyler]

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-variants-genomically-confirmed-case-numbers/variants-distribution-of-case-data-27-may-2021

B1.617 has doubled in a week (UK).

Shit!

In better news though: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vaccines-highly-effective-against-b-1-617-2-variant-after-2-doses

Quote

    the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was 88% effective against symptomatic disease from the B.1.617.2 variant 2 weeks after the second dose, compared to 93% effectiveness against the B.1.1.7 variant
    2 doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine were 60% effective against symptomatic disease from the B.1.617.2 variant compared to 66% effectiveness against the B.1.1.7 variant
    both vaccines were 33% effective against symptomatic disease from B.1.617.2, 3 weeks after the first dose compared to around 50% effectiveness against the B.1.1.7 variant

n=1054

[Fragile Bird]

Welcome back to flying!

Unruly passenger incidents are 20 times higher in 5 months this year than they normally have been in an entire average year.

Passengers have a combative attitude when they get on planes, apparently, with attitudes similar to road rage, according to an interview I saw with a representative from the Flight Attendants association. Incidents are usually connected to mask wearing.

Search any topic related to flight incidents, fight on airplane, flight attendant attacked etc. etc., some of the videos are just wild.

Eta: this is in the US, I should have mentioned