Covid #35: I am the Alpha and the Omega.

[Fez]

With more data coming in from Israel, it looks like vaccine effectiveness against Delta hasn't declined as much as initially reported...

The newer data is much more in line with what's been reported out of the UK about Delta.

[Luzifer's right hand]

People here are looking at the UK and saying that Delta is harmless and that it is just a test pandemic now. I kinda wish they are right but I doubt it. 

[Fragile Bird]

Pfizer reported today that they think they will have enough data by the end of September for vaccinating 5 to 12 year olds. They also say younger people who get a third, booster shot see anti-bodies increase 5x, but older people who get a booster shot see antibodies increase 11x.

[Paladin of Ice]

UK apparently has something weird going on. Case numbers are way down, but deaths and hospitalization are up. There’s likely some disconnect like people with mild symptoms aren’t getting tested, or maybe nobody wants to be quarantined so they’re convincing themselves it’s not COVID and they don’t need to bother getting tested.

Naturally it’s also conspiracy fodder, but I’ll avoid that pile of shit for the time being.

[Heartofice]

5 minutes ago, Paladin of Ice said:

UK apparently has something weird going on. Case numbers are way down, but deaths and hospitalization are up. There’s likely some disconnect like people with mild symptoms aren’t getting tested, or maybe nobody wants to be quarantined so they’re convincing themselves it’s not COVID and they don’t need to bother getting tested.

Naturally it’s also conspiracy fodder, but I’ll avoid that pile of shit for the time being.

There is a lag. There is always a lag

[Maithanet]

5 minutes ago, Paladin of Ice said:

UK apparently has something weird going on. Case numbers are way down, but deaths and hospitalization are up. There’s likely some disconnect like people with mild symptoms aren’t getting tested, or maybe nobody wants to be quarantined so they’re convincing themselves it’s not COVID and they don’t need to bother getting tested.

Naturally it’s also conspiracy fodder, but I’ll avoid that pile of shit for the time being.

Deaths and hospitalizations naturally lag case numbers, so they are more reflective of where cases were a couple weeks ago.  It seems hard to believe that people's willingness to get tested or get quarantined has changed dramatically in just a few weeks.

It is nonetheless interesting and surprising that countries like the UK and the Netherlands are seeing a drop in cases over last week or two.  Virtually everyone thought that the opposite was about to happen, and that Delta would either continue surging or plateau at a relatively high rate.  In addition, there isn't really a good explanation for why this is happening either.  Perhaps Delta isn't as good at reinfection as we'd thought, and thus people with "natural" immunity from OG COVID or Alpha are still relatively safe?  Because all modeling indicates that the current levels of vaccination in the UK is not sufficient to limit the spread of something as transmissible as Delta. 

[Which Tyler]

8 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

There is a lag. There is always a lag

Exactly this - there's always been about a 2 week delay between cases and hospitalisation, and another couple to death

[Heartofice]

1 minute ago, Maithanet said:

Deaths and hospitalizations naturally lag case numbers, so they are more reflective of where cases were a couple weeks ago.  It seems hard to believe that people's willingness to get tested or get quarantined has changed dramatically in just a few weeks.

It is nonetheless interesting and surprising that countries like the UK and the Netherlands are seeing a drop in cases over last week or two.  Virtually everyone thought that the opposite was about to happen, and that Delta would either continue surging or plateau at a relatively high rate.  In addition, there isn't really a good explanation for why this is happening either.  Perhaps Delta isn't as good at reinfection as we'd thought, and thus people with "natural" immunity from OG COVID or Alpha are still relatively safe?  Because all modeling indicates that the current levels of vaccination in the UK is not sufficient to limit the spread of something as transmissible as Delta. 

It’s hard to say whether levels of immunity are affecting the case numbers in that way but if they were I don’t think the drop would be so sudden. 
 

It’s said that something like 90% of adults in the uk have antibodies to Covid now so there might be something in it but the sudden drop for me suggests behavioural change, stemming from end of the football ( Scotland lost earlier and their cases dropped a couple of weeks earlier) , schools closing and maybe a general cautiousness caused by seeing rising case numbers in the news, and the weather of course. 
 

 

[Zorral]

Both governor and mayor are telling us to mask up again in public spaces.  Not just NY state, but NJ too.  Jerkwaddies won't, you know, and I know.  Particularly those who don't live here.  They have also, as mentioned, now mandated vaccination for all public employees or constant testing.  This may be the canary in the mine shaft:

https://gothamist.com/arts-entertainment/nyc-homecoming-concert-2021-lineup

"Here's The Lineup For NYC's "Homecoming" Concert, Vaccine Required To Attend"

Under 40's are deeply disappointed with the acts offered, btw. Honestly, the acts are indeed all old, when not downright elderly. 

[Maithanet]

15 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

It’s hard to say whether levels of immunity are affecting the case numbers in that way but if they were I don’t think the drop would be so sudden. 
 

It’s said that something like 90% of adults in the uk have antibodies to Covid now so there might be something in it but the sudden drop for me suggests behavioural change, stemming from end of the football ( Scotland lost earlier and their cases dropped a couple of weeks earlier) , schools closing and maybe a general cautiousness caused by seeing rising case numbers in the news, and the weather of course.

Well, what I'm theorizing is basically that Delta is rapidly sweeping up everyone who was lucky enough not to have gotten COVID in the past 18 months, and that once that group was exhausted cases are dropping dramatically. 

Obviously there are always lots of factors at play such as the ones that you mentioned, but from what I've read, behavior has changed somewhat, but not dramatically in the past 3 weeks, and yet cases have gone from skyrocketing to dropping.  I'm trying to come up with an explanation for how that is possible.  The list you provided does not strike me as sufficient for such a dramatic change. 

[Padraig]

23 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

It’s said that something like 90% of adults in the uk have antibodies to Covid now so there might be something in it but the sudden drop for me suggests behavioural change, stemming from end of the football ( Scotland lost earlier and their cases dropped a couple of weeks earlier) , schools closing and maybe a general cautiousness caused by seeing rising case numbers in the news, and the weather of course. 

I'd agree with most of that.  COVID has always come in waves.  The case profile in the UK now is similar to the profile last winter (just a little narrower, as it isn't as bad).

The only real difference now is the recent removal of restrictions in the UK but if people don't behave that differently, then perhaps that wouldn't slow down the new positive trend.  And while the UK still has more people fully vaccinated, the Netherlands has marginally more numbers partly vaccinated (as a % of total population).  So its not that surprising that countries are beginning to reach similarly.  The Dutch did reinstate restrictions though, so that helped there.

1 hour ago, Fez said:

With more data coming in from Israel, it looks like vaccine effectiveness against Delta hasn't declined as much as initially reported...

The newer data is much more in line with what's been reported out of the UK about Delta.

That's great.

1 hour ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

People here are looking at the UK and saying that Delta is harmless and that it is just a test pandemic now.

It is harmless because of vaccination?

[Luzifer's right hand]

6 minutes ago, Padraig said:

I'd agree with most of that.  COVID has always come in waves.  The case profile in the UK now is similar to the profile last winter (just a little narrower, as it isn't as bad).

The only real difference now is the recent removal of restrictions in the UK but if people don't behave that differently, then perhaps that wouldn't slow down the new positive trend.  And while the UK still has more people fully vaccinated, the Netherlands has marginally more numbers partly vaccinated (as a % of total population).  So its not that surprising that countries are beginning to reach similarly.  The Dutch did reinstate restrictions though, so that helped there.

That's great.

It is harmless because of vaccination?

It is just harmless. Herd immunity approach works!

[Week]

36 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

Exactly this - there's always been about a 2 week delay between cases and hospitalisation, and another couple to death

Think the lag has been pulled in by at least a week due to Delta -- much larger viral loads lead to people getting sick more quickly and therefore the contagious period that of those that are asymptomatic/have minor symptoms is lessened.

[Padraig]

11 minutes ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

It is just harmless. Herd immunity approach works!

So they can ignore that the UK has 10% more people vaccinated than Austria. 

Wow.

I would never have thought the recently decline in the UK was surprising.  It is certainly better than feared.  But if vaccination work...then it should stop huge increases in cases.

[Kalbear]

1 hour ago, L'oiseau français said:

Pfizer reported today that they think they will have enough data by the end of September for vaccinating 5 to 12 year olds. They also say younger people who get a third, booster shot see anti-bodies increase 5x, but older people who get a booster shot see antibodies increase 11x.

God damnit. 

[DireWolfSpirit]

I seen a headline the other day entitled "Don't punish the Vaccinated".

It's got me thinking about the likely booster shots in the coming months. If 40% of the population is dragging their feet on getting the jab, it shouldn't slow down the process for the millions like me, who will jump at the chance for a booster shot on DAY ONE that it's available.

I think it would be bullsht to ask the willing to linger while the willfully ignorant and stubborn make all their excuses and foot dragging for something they should've taken care of asap.

[ljkeane]

37 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Obviously there are always lots of factors at play such as the ones that you mentioned, but from what I've read, behavior has changed somewhat, but not dramatically in the past 3 weeks, and yet cases have gone from skyrocketing to dropping.  I'm trying to come up with an explanation for how that is possible.  The list you provided does not strike me as sufficient for such a dramatic change. 

I think you’re probably underestimating how big of a factor school closing for the summer is. Unlike the US the UK hasn’t started vaccinating under 18s yet so schools are big pools of unvaccinated people interacting in a largely indoor setting and, from what the teachers I know tell me, largely not bothering with much in the way of social distancing. I think there’s a decent chance it’s the main reason for the change.

[Luzifer's right hand]

44 minutes ago, Padraig said:

So they can ignore that the UK has 10% more people vaccinated than Austria. 

Wow.

I would never have thought the recently decline in the UK was surprising.  It is certainly better than feared.  But if vaccination work...then it should stop huge increases in cases.

It is headline news around here that it is surprising. 

[Heartofice]

43 minutes ago, ljkeane said:

I think you’re probably underestimating how big of a factor school closing for the summer is. Unlike the US the UK hasn’t started vaccinating under 18s yet so schools are big pools of unvaccinated people interacting in a largely indoor setting and, from what the teachers I know tell me, largely not bothering with much in the way of social distancing. I think there’s a decent chance it’s the main reason for the change.

I dunno. Scotland’s cases dropped and I don’t know if schools closed earlier there than in England, and English schools haven’t all closed at the same time either. 
 

It’s one of the factors but I wouldn’t over play it 

[Heartofice]

I'm not sure how unique the UK and Ireland have been in pumping out nutcases in regards to Covid misinformation, but recent protests suggests there are quite a lot in this country. So bottom of the barrel are the anti vax 5G lunatics, but slightly above them are the Lockdown / Covid deniers who have tried to twist every single event since the crisis to suit their narrative that either lockdowns dont work, covid doesn't exist.. its a casedemic etc.

Its been very entertaining watching some of the back and forth between some of their cheerleaders and Christopher Snowden who has taken it upon himself to wreck most of their arguments and spend his day humilating them.

He's written a couple of articles on it, this is the second, more recent update. Its an entertaining read and really highlights how misinformation has been spreading, peoples inability or disinterest in looking deeper at facts and stats

https://quillette.com/2021/07/28/vaccines-and-the-coronavirus-crank-crisis/