Ukraine: “I don’t need a ride, I need Ammunition”.

[Werthead]

Reports that Russian forces have broken into Mykolaiv, near the mouth of the Pivdennyi River, NW of Kherson. Russian forces reportedly captured the crossing at Kherson last night, though the status of the rest of the town remains unclear. They seem to have swept around to hit Mykolaiv and secure the Varvarivs Bridge. If they can take that, they can send troops down towards Odesa. Some reports that Ukrainian forces tried to blow the bridge at Kherson but the Russians were able to stop them.

Azerbaijan has agreed to allow free use of its petrol services to Ukrainian emergency services. Azerbaijan has been trying to appease both Russia and Turkey/NATO during the conflict, which feels like a bit of an untenable position.

[Werthead]

Mariupol is still in Ukrainian hands. Ten Greek nationals have been killed in attacks on the city's outskirts.

This is an aggregate of the latest reports. Obviously, a lot of confusion. It looks a missile nearly hit the Paton Bridge in Kyiv but fell short; possible suggestion the Russians want to cut Kyiv in half, although it's unclear why as that would hinder them more than the defenders. It looks like the missile strike on Vasylkiv has been followed up by a Russian ground attack, but so far the town remains in Ukrainian hands. Vasylkiv falling would be a bad sign as it would cut Kyiv off from the south-west and west. Earlier this evening the train lines running from Kyiv towrds Lviv and the far west were still open.

The city of Sumy has come under attack, which it has weathered. A Ukrainian counter-attack then destroyed a Russian fuel convoy and took Russian personnel captive.

In another "what the fuck, this should have been done on Day One," moment, the Russians have again apparently failed to break out from Luhansk into Donetsk, which is where this all kicked off. Bafflingly, there are still Ukrainian forces on the 2014 contact line. Absolutely bananas.

Ah, it looks like the Russians have broken into Kherson and might be on the verge of taking the city, or have already taken it. 

Unconfirmed reports that a Russian Su-30 has been downed over the Black Sea.

[Corvinus85]

54 minutes ago, Lord of Oop North said:

OK, I totally understand there is a difference between carpet bombing the country and strategic bombing.

But why aren't they doing more of the latter? It doesn't necessarily follow that because they aren't doing that, it makes them incompetent. I am sure Russian generals understand the value of air and artillery support.

There's been some mention here that it would be a high monetary cost to deploy and maintain their heavier assets. It may be they don't wish to risk losing the more advanced planes and tanks. Not so easily replaced.

[Werthead]

The Daily Beast has been aggregating the reports that Russian military forces were so overstretched they had to effectively deploy not just conscripts but even 16-year-old trainees to take part in the campaign. In some cases conscripts were beaten and were forced to sign new contracts "volunteering" to take part in the campaign (under Russian law, conscripts of that age cannot be used in offensives unless they volunteer).

3 minutes ago, Corvinus85 said:

There's been some mention here that it would be a high monetary cost to deploy and maintain their heavier assets. It may be they don't wish to risk losing the more advanced planes and tanks. Not so easily replaced.

Yup, Russia needs those to have even a rat's arse's chance against any possible clash with NATO. They're not going to risk losing them in Ukraine.

[Werthead]

 

[Corvinus85]

5 minutes ago, Werthead said:

The Daily Beast has been aggregating the reports that Russian military forces were so overstretched they had to effectively deploy not just conscripts but even 16-year-old trainees to take part in the campaign. In some cases conscripts were beaten and were forced to sign new contracts "volunteering" to take part in the campaign (under Russian law, conscripts of that age cannot be used in offensives unless they volunteer).

It does baffle me some that in terms of just manpower, Russia has the 5th largest military in the world, no? So even if you take away all the support personnel, and take away the entire air and naval manpower except the marines, there should still be a few hundred thousand active service members with at least as many reservists. And they need to force 16 years old kids into this?

[IheartIheartTesla]

Looks like the Ukrainian Minister of Digital Tranformation, Fedorov (also vice PM), has been busy making overtures to tech leaders (you may recall his letter to Tim Cook asking the Apple Store be banned to Russians). Facebook, Instagram, Google, Youtube and Netflix as well, I believe.

He also reached out to evil billionaire and wannabe Lex Luthor Elon Musk asking for Space X's Starlink satellites to be active over Ukraine, which Musk duly complied with. I think this allows for the internet to be maintained in Ukraine, but I'm not sure about that

[The Dragon Demands]

49 minutes ago, House Balstroko said:

Somewhat off-topic

Whats the view in Kazakhstan? They’ve got a large Russian population. A while back, Putin even claimed that Kazakhstan wasn’t a real country. 

 

Funny you mention that. Just today, Kazakhstan said that they won't comply with Russia's request for them to send soldiers to help in Ukraine. This is widespread news, even CNN and MSNBC were remarking on it in their main coverage.

[Fez]

2 minutes ago, Corvinus85 said:

It does baffle me some that in terms of just manpower, Russia has the 5th largest military in the world, no? So even if you take away all the support personnel, and take away the entire air and naval manpower except the marines, there should still be a few hundred thousand active service members with at least as many reservists. And they need to force 16 years old kids into this?

I'm sure there's plenty of regular soldiers on the front lines too. But it's also regular soldiers who are going to be the ones kept back in the barracks just in case a domestic deployment is needed. 

And they'd be the ones doing all the more technical jobs as well I image; manning radar stations, working motor pool, etc.

[Lord of Oop North]

31 minutes ago, Fez said:

The last one is somewhat out of Russian hands, but none of this speaks well of Russian military capabilities. Considering the disparity in Russian and Ukraine military might. even if Kyiv falls tonight this war has broken the illusion that Russia is a major conventional military threat. Poland+the Baltic states alone might be able to defeat them, NATO would crush them. So would China if that conflict somehow came about.

Why? So Kyiv falling in 3 days is still a disaster, really? Even the USA took a month to 'conquer' Iraq. Did that Operation break the illusion of the might of the US military?

I imagine if the Russians are able to take Kyiv without bringing to bear massive airstrikes/rocket attacks and risking all their super expensive hardware, they will consider that a win.

[Fez]

4 minutes ago, Lord of Oop North said:

Why? So Kyiv falling in 3 days is still a disaster, really? Even the USA took a month to 'conquer' Iraq. Did that Operation break the illusion of the might of the US military?

I imagine if the Russians are able to take Kyiv without bringing to bear massive airstrikes/rocket attacks and risking all their super expensive hardware, they will consider that a win.

Yes, taking 3 days to go 50 miles when you committed ground forces on day one is a disaster when the military disparity is so large.

If Russia was following the 2003 US playback of "shock and awe" and a methodical advance that would be one thing. But there's no evidence Russia was trying to do that.

[The Dragon Demands]

Status as of 2:30 AM Ukraine time (12:30 AM UTC):

• North: massive attack on Kiev, including a push on fuel depot to the west, but large number of Ukrainian forces concentrated here. Much hinges on this. Russians were late getting to the city and they had time to prepare.
• East: the entire eastern front from Kharkiv to Donbas has been a debacle for the Russians, an outright debacle, no progress whatsoever.
• South: most Russian success in the south due to naval support from the Russian fleet. They've reached the Dnieper yesterday, secured some crossings, and may have just captured first major city, Kherson, at the mouth of the river. Pushing east towards Mariupol, even though the eastern force in Donbas was originally supposed to capture it (Donbas was supposed to support the southern thrust, not the other way around). Scattered reports that while they're in Kherson they haven't secured it, heavy Ukrainian counter-attacks. After Kherson unclear if they're willing to make the anticipated push on Odessa port to the west. On the one hand it's one of few places they can bring extensive naval advantage to bear, on the other hand, they're stretched thin so badly in Donbas to the east they might not want to overextend themselves even more.

There's five big cities on the Dnieper, from north to south: Kiev, Kremenchuk, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson at the mouth of the river.

Large number of Ukrainian forces are allegedly holding in reserve at Dnipro in the middle, ready to commit to whichever point the Russians get a breakthrough (which is a sound "defense in depth" strategy against a Russian blitzkrieg style offensive). 

Nothing but big flat plains great for tanks between Crimea and Zaporizhzhia, it's just that they've been concentrating on pushing east to Mariupol because the Dunbas offensive got stalled and failed to take it.  The Russians probably could take Zaporizhzhia very quickly with a sudden tank thrust across the plains if they wanted to...but this would mean abandoning their forces in Donbas - and for what?

So basically four key points of engagement now: Kiev, Mariupol, and Kherson are all tense city battles, though the fourth one at Kharkiv, the Russian advance has floundered. 

[S John]

Saw on Reddit earlier that they were going to build a statue for Zelenskyy but there wasn’t enough bronze for his massive balls. 

He’s been very impressive. I honestly would not have expected any government with the ability to get out of town to put their own ass on the line like he has.

[williamjm]

The Guardian live feed has this update on everyone's favourite island defenders:

Quote

 

The Ukrainian soldiers who defended an island in the Black Sea from an air and sea bombardment - reportedly telling an officer on board a Russian navy warship to “go f*** yourself” when asked to surrender, are believed to still be alive according to Ukrainian officials.

There were 13 border guards stationed on Snake Island, a roughly 16-hectare (40-acre) rocky island owned by Ukraine that sits about 186 miles (300km) west of Crimea, when Russian troops bombed the island on Thursday.

All 13 soldiers were believed to have died after refusing to surrender, Ukrainian officials announced.

However, in a recent statement, the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine said:

We [have a] strong belief that all Ukrainian defenders of Zmiinyi (Snake) Island may be alive.

After receiving information about their possible location, the DPSU together with the Armed Forces of Ukraine are conducting work on identifying our soldiers.”

 

 

[A True Kaniggit]

Not that it actually means anything, but I raise a glass to all Ukrainian soldiers and citizens defending their country.

You’re braver than most of the people I know.

Probably braver than me. 

[Ser Drewy]

1 minute ago, A True Kaniggit said:

Not that it actually means anything, but I raise a glass to all Ukrainian soldiers and citizens defending their country.

You’re braver than most of the people I know. 

Yep. Feel the same way.  The whole country is showing incredible resilience, determination and courage from their leaders to the people on the street.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

2 hours ago, Fez said:

So would China if that conflict somehow came about.

Aren’t there a lot of Chinese in Siberia?  Would China be delighted to get access to the resources of the Russian far east?

[briantw]

1 hour ago, Lord of Oop North said:

Why? So Kyiv falling in 3 days is still a disaster, really? Even the USA took a month to 'conquer' Iraq. Did that Operation break the illusion of the might of the US military?

At the rate things are going in Ukraine, Russia will have taken more losses by the end of tomorrow than the US did during the entire war in Iraq.  And the US soldiers didn't have the morale issues that Russia does right now.  

So yeah, I'd say that's a disaster.

[sologdin]

And they need to force 16 years old kids into this?

cf. the vulgar holy war in RSB.

[The Dragon Demands]

Ah I just came here to report on that too:  Washington Post is also saying that the Snake Island 13 may have been captured alive: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukrainian-border-guards-may-have-survived-reported-last-stand-on-snake-island/ar-AAUmj4d?ocid=msedgntp