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Catelyn’s sin


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Catelyn apprehended Tyrion for the attempted murder of her son, Brandon Stark. Tywin retaliated by attacking the Riverlands.  
 

Catelyn was at least willing to give Tyrion a fair trial. The raid on innocent villages was over the top reply from Tywin. Sending a learned scholar to the eyrie to advocate for Tyrion was the fair thing.  How should the Lannisters respond? 

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1 hour ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

Catelyn apprehended Tyrion for the attempted murder of her son, Brandon Stark. Tywin retaliated by attacking the Riverlands.  
 

Catelyn was at least willing to give Tyrion a fair trial. The raid on innocent villages was over the top reply from Tywin. Sending a learned scholar to the eyrie to advocate for Tyrion was the fair thing.  How should the Lannisters respond? 

Considering Tywin hates Tyrion, I'm honestly shocked he responded at all. I honestly would expect the guy to simply send a note to Robert demanding he Catelyn release his son and little else. Seems a lot less expensive and risky, than declaring war on everyone.

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1 hour ago, sifth said:

Considering Tywin hates Tyrion, I'm honestly shocked he responded at all. I honestly would expect the guy to simply send a note to Robert demanding he Catelyn release his son and little else. Seems a lot less expensive and risky, than declaring war on everyone.

He had to respond because he took it as a personal insult, and unless he took revenge others would consider him weak. I mean you know how people exploited his father, laughed at him, disobeyed him and he couldn't stand that happening to him, he wants people to fear him.

Edited by ShadowFaction
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27 minutes ago, ShadowFaction said:

He had to respond because he took it as a personal insult, and unless he took revenge others would consider him weak. I mean you know how people exploited his father, laughed at him, disobeyed him and he couldn't stand that happening to him, he wants people to fear him.

Yea, but he should have simply went to Robert about the matter, in place of declaring open war on everyone. The guy hates Tyrion and would be very happy if something happened to him. The guy got beyond lucky that Cersei took out Robert, because no way would Tywin be a match against the power Robert could throw at him.

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25 minutes ago, ShadowFaction said:

He had to respond because he took it as a personal insult, and unless he took revenge others would consider him weak. I mean you know how people exploited his father, laughed at him, disobeyed him and he couldn't stand that happening to him, he wants people to fear him.

This is true but I think his reaction was still way over the top in terms of deliberately going out of his way to slaughter and terrorise innocent civilians. He hired the Brave Companions for this specific purpose. Given that he would've had to ship them from Essos he probably did this well before it became known that Tyrion was kidnapped by Catelyn. So he was likely planning on using them to commit atrocities in the course of any warfare, not just as a specific strategy to avenge a slight.

As others have said I don't believe his response had to be so bloodthirsty. He could have just appealed to the king, he is Robert's father-in-law after all. Instead he chose this strategy which ran the risk of breaking the King's Peace. Which is quite stupid. All because he felt people weren't taking the Lannister name seriously.

Tywin's father was too lenient. Tywin is too harsh in part because he feels he needs to compensate for his father's weakness. But because of his actions the Lannister legacy is in ruins. In this respect I would say he is a worse ruler than Tytos.

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Looking back, I think he intended to entrap Ned Stark.

“People of Sherrer, I cannot give you back your homes or your crops, nor can I restore your dead to life. But perhaps I can give you some small measure of justice, in the name of our king, Robert.”
Every eye in the hall was fixed on him, waiting. Slowly Ned struggled to his feet, pushing himself up from the throne with the strength of his arms, his shattered leg screaming inside its cast. He did his best to ignore the pain; it was no moment to let them see his weakness. “The First Men believed that the judge who called for death should wield the sword, and in the north we hold to that still. I mislike sending another to do my killing... yet it seems I have no choice.” He gestured at his broken leg.

Instead he sent Beric, and you know what happened to him.

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9 hours ago, sifth said:

Yea, but he should have simply went to Robert about the matter, in place of declaring open war on everyone. 

Right. And this is what happened - King Robert ordered Ned to have Tyrion released. Cersei did the persuading, but as she doesn't like Tyrion much, Tywin probably did some prompting too.

2 hours ago, Loose Bolt said:

Someone had just kidnapped goodbrother of king, brother of queen and uncle of next king. So as a loyal subject of a king Tywin had right to start special operation to unnazify Riverlands:rofl:

Nice one.

They used to call it casus beli, but all it means is we're looking at the match, not the firework.

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14 hours ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

Catelyn apprehended Tyrion for the attempted murder of her son, Brandon Stark. Tywin retaliated by attacking the Riverlands.  
 

Catelyn was at least willing to give Tyrion a fair trial. The raid on innocent villages was over the top reply from Tywin. Sending a learned scholar to the eyrie to advocate for Tyrion was the fair thing.  How should the Lannisters respond? 

Well in Tywin's mind he would have to demonstrate some power at least by marching army's near or in the Riverlands, at the same time asking Robert to deal with this or the return of all the loans would make sure Tyrion was returned quickly. The army would be a show of force proving that the Lannister would go to war even for the less respected of them all, but he would not break the Kings peace.

Because I completely agree taht breaking the Kings peace by attacking the Riverlands is utterly stupid since both the North and Vale would likely come to aid, Tywin was lucky that Robert die and Lysa was completely out of her mind because he would have been crushed other wise.

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You don't assemble an army of tens of thousands of men in a matter of days.  Tywin must have planning for war, for a long time.

Bear in mind that the Lannisters are dominant at court, but that dominance is resented by many people, such as Stannis, Renly, and the Tyrells, and Littlefinger has been stirring the pot for a while.  Then, you have Arya overhearing Varys and Illyrio discussing the likelihood for war.

Tywin has his finger on the pulse, and knows that war is coming.  So (given the speed with which they put huge armies into the field) do the lords of the Reach. So, among other things, Tywin was getting his retaliation in first.

Yes, the arrest of Tyrion was the spark, but the bonfire had been constructed over many years.  Think of it as being like the assassination of Franz Ferdinand.

Edited by SeanF
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20 hours ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

Catelyn apprehended Tyrion for the attempted murder of her son, Brandon Stark. Tywin retaliated by attacking the Riverlands.  
 

Catelyn was at least willing to give Tyrion a fair trial. The raid on innocent villages was over the top reply from Tywin. Sending a learned scholar to the eyrie to advocate for Tyrion was the fair thing.  How should the Lannisters respond? 

Moral of the story: don't screw with Tywin Lannister. For reference, see Reynes and Tarbecks.

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On 8/10/2022 at 5:39 PM, sifth said:

Yea, but he should have simply went to Robert about the matter, in place of declaring open war on everyone. The guy hates Tyrion and would be very happy if something happened to him. The guy got beyond lucky that Cersei took out Robert, because no way would Tywin be a match against the power Robert could throw at him.

Cat might have gone to Robert instead and pleaded her case. 

Edited by Darth Sidious
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On 8/10/2022 at 10:51 PM, ShadowFaction said:

Looking back, I think he intended to entrap Ned Stark.

This is confirmed later on

A Storm of Swords - Arya III

Only six Winterfell men remained of the twenty her father had sent west with Beric Dondarrion, Harwin told her, and they were scattered. "It was a trap, milady. Lord Tywin sent his Mountain across the Red Fork with fire and sword, hoping to draw your lord father. He planned for Lord Eddard to come west himself to deal with Gregor Clegane. If he had he would have been killed, or taken prisoner and traded for the Imp, who was your lady mother's captive at the time. Only the Kingslayer never knew Lord Tywin's plan, and when he heard about his brother's capture he attacked your father in the streets of King's Landing."
 
It's plausible that Robert would have dressed down both Ned and Tywin for squabbling and breaking the King's Peace but as neither were in rebellion against the crown and both could claim they were protecting their family honour / members he probably would have forgiven both. 
 
Tywin's conduct in the Riverlands is particularly brutal but as his men carried no banners and wore no livery he has plausible denial.
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If Tywin intended to entrap Ned, what would have happened if, say, after Ned is injured by Jaime's men, Jaime tosses Ned on his saddle like a sack of potatoes and brings him to the Westerlands instead of leaving him outside the brothel? It would accomplish the same objective.

Edited by Angel Eyes
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49 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

If Tywin intended to entrap Ned, what would have happened if, say, after Ned is injured by Jaime's men, Jaime tosses Ned on his saddle like a sack of potatoes and brings him to the Westerlands instead of leaving him outside the brothel? It would accomplish the same objective.

It seems that Jaime didn't think of this option. (I guess as a Kingsguard Jaime himself might have needed permission from the King to leave King's Landing, but he could have sent some Lannister men at least.) Tywin probably didn't want to involve Jaime in this business though.

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On 8/11/2022 at 5:48 PM, Darth Sidious said:

Cat might have gone to Robert instead and pleaded her case. 

That's what she intended to do.

But she needed to a place to hold Tyrion until the time for such trial came.

Going westward towards Riverrun meant that Catelyn would be running into search parties and outriders. She only had Rodrick Cassel with her...he'd be easily overpowered/killed and Catelyn would have lost custody of Tyrion and probably gotten herself taken captive too. It could be done but it was too risky given that it was so predictable.

Going to Winterfell means that Catelyn is making it harder for herself to plead her case to King Robert. It's too far away.

Going directly to King's Landing with Tyrion as a captive without having the king's personal invitation of safe passage is insane. Not an option, never was a option.

Going to the Eyrie was both her best option and a stroke of genius. It's far from Tywin, it's not far from the Crossroads and it's close enough to Robert. It also is a relatively neutral location.

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Tywin horribly misplayed his hand here and it only worked out at all because of a massive stroke of good fortune.

When Catelyn took Tyrion Twyin had a nice safe option of appealing to the king. Appealing about the illegal seizure on spurious grounds of one of the members of their family and demand he be returned. Eventually reports of their arrival at the Eyrie arrive and they are summoned back to King's Landing and both sides have their cases heard and everything ends up working out. Tyrion is released once the falsehood of the evidence is revealed and Catelyn perhaps escapes any serious consequences by playing on female stereotypes in the world of Westeros and Tywin gets to ensure vengeance on the person responsible by having Baelish executed for his role in masterminding the entire thing and maybe gets even more influence by arranging the replacement master of coin. Assuming Joffrey's role in the entire thing doesn't come out the Lannisters have firmly come out on top and can possibly extract a bit of grovelling from the Starks to enhance their prestige. Except they'd have to work through the king and Tywin doesn't really like having to rely on people above him to achieve his goals. It would particularly in this case the limitations of his power and I doubt he could stand that.

Instead he decides to find a plan b which results in one of the many poorly thought out hare brained schemes that dominate most of ASOIAF's plot. He decides to effectively break the King's peace with raiders with only the most basic of steps taken to prevent revealing who was behind it because Tywin clearly thought that people knowing he was behind it was a good idea when it probably wasn't to lure Ned into an ambush. Right and then what? Assuming Robert isn't killed by the boar (Given Cersei was relying on a drunken hunting accident to remove him it easily have gone poorly for her) he's now had his  best friend been kidnapped and held hostage. Good excuse for a war if Robert wanted one and now he can significantly improve the realms finances in one fell swoop. Most of the realm would eagerly side with him in such a war. Tywin has no serious allies to call upon who would actually stick with him and even the lords of the Westerlands might decide not to join him in a suicide conflict.

This of course assumes that he is unaware of Cersei's actions which seems reasonable. If he is aware the plan makes a little more sense as a ruse to cover a military build up which can be legally unleashed once Robert is dead and Cersei is regent. The entire thing does suit Tywin's personality and his desire to send out the right messages from his point of view. A preference for dramatic statements of the risks of opposing Tywin Lannister and his wrath rather than more intelligent displays of cunning and diplomacy would definitely fit him to a tee. Dramatic overreactions to deal with problems in the least efficient way is definitely how he normally deals with most problems.

He got lucky as Robert's death allow him to turn a seemingly inevitable disaster into a fairly advantageous start to the fighting in the Riverlands. If Robert hadn't died he was looking into serious possibilities of major issues in the future as had to figure his way out of the corner he was boxing himself into regardless of how well it was working out for him.

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Tywin's attack on the Riverlands and Cersei taking out Robert, seems to happen a little too close, for my liking and always has. It almost seems perfectly coordinated, to the point you'd think these characters had cellphones. I know Cersei got very lucky in how she took Robert out, but the fact that she was able to do it and at the perfect time has always bothered me. I guess even villains need plot armor at times, lol

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