IheartIheartTesla Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 18 hours ago, DMC said: And third, two of the four most recent polls have Cortes Masto leading, whereas Walker is only leading in a poll he sponsored. Not in the ones 538 uses in its models (which is filtered for recency, sample size etc.) : https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/nevada/ which brings Laxalt up slightly more to +1.5. In the case of GA they do still consider the Walker funded poll which is the only one that shows him up ... so I guess that still bolsters my point if you want to ignore it. At any rate I already said it was a gut feeling based in part that Nevada is hard to poll and Ralston has been ringing the alarm bells about D registration falling behind, so I'm comfortable with asserting the polls are underestimating laxalt strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said: Not in the ones 538 uses in its models (which is filtered for recency, sample size etc.) : https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/nevada/ which brings Laxalt up slightly more to +1.5. Yes, in the ones 538 uses for their models. That list is just the polls that have the "biggest impact." Click on the "See all Nevada Senate polls" and you'll get the page I previously linked to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martell Spy Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 Steve Bannon Sentenced To 4 Months In Prison For Defying House Jan. 6 Subpoena https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2022/10/21/steve-bannon-sentenced-to-4-months-in-prison-for-defying-house-jan-6-subpoena/?sh=2a36bc614b84 Quote U.S. District Judge Carl Nichols sentenced Bannon to four months in prison for contempt of Congress, along with a $6,500 fine, multiple outlets report. He also stayed the sentence while Bannon appeals his ruling, however—meaning he won’t go to prison before the appeal plays out—though Politico reports Nichols stressed that appeal must be “timely.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 That an elected Representative can openly declare themselves a fascist is just insane… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThinkerX Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 Couple things caught my eye on the news feeds today... First up, militant extremists in the US are having a really bad week. Patriot Front sued; New Mexico Civil Guard shut down: The week in extremism (msn.com) It was a bad week in court for extremist groups. The Texas-headquartered white supremacist organization Patriot Front has been hit with a lawsuit from the Lawyers' Committee for Civil Rights Under Law. Meanwhile, in New Mexico, a militia group has been ordered to disband and slapped with a fine, and the Oath Keepers Jan. 6 trial continues. Second, some sort of minor furor over voting machines in an eastern state. Pennsylvania alleges Fulton County breached security of voting machines for second time (msn.com) Reuters) - A rural Pennsylvania county violated a court order when it allowed a forensics company to examine voting equipment in July, marking the county's second security breach of the machines, the state's top election official alleged in a court filing. The latest alleged breach came to light last month when Fulton County filed a lawsuit against election equipment maker Dominion Voting Systems, citing purported issues discovered in an examination of the equipment by Speckin Forensics LLC. In a Pennsylvania Supreme Court filing on Tuesday, lawyers for the Secretary of the Commonwealth said the county's move to grant access to the equipment violated the court's Jan. 27 injunction prohibiting third-party access to the machines. "What is certain is that, in allowing Speckin to access and image the electronic voting machines in July 2022, Petitioners openly thumbed their noses at a clear and direct order of this Court," the lawyers wrote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DireWolfSpirit Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 Will noone save our country from this monster? https://www.huffpost.com/entry/china-iran-weapons-trump-mar-a-lago-intelligence_n_63534cdde4b0e376dc17b069 Its obvious to me he was/is attempting to sell State Secrets. State Secrets of the highest and most sensitive nature. The sad part is he has been up to it in broad daylight and has faced no consequences. Will noone save us from this monster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 21 minutes ago, Mindwalker said: No. Wait for "no-one can save you, you just have to vote" in 3...2... Voting against the party that wants to empower the man who steals highly classified documents from the US Government… is a bad idea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teej6 Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 Early voter turnout is very high. NYT is reporting: “More than 5.5 million people have cast ballots in person or by mail. Experts predict high turnout in the midterm elections… Through the first five days of early voting in Georgia, in-person turnout is up 70 percent compared with turnout in the 2018 midterm elections, according to the secretary of state’s office. In North Carolina, absentee ballot requests are up 114 percent compared with requests in 2018, according to the board of elections. And in Florida, the total early vote is up 50 percent compared with the early vote in 2018.” Is this a good sign for the democrats or have elections changed so much in the recent past that nothing is a predictor anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varysblackfyre321 Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 12 minutes ago, teej6 said: Is this a good sign for the democrats or have elections changed so much in the recent past that nothing is a predictor anymore? 2020 and Virginia’s governor race where high turnout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 2 hours ago, Mindwalker said: ...1. *eyeroll* Yes, as my numerous posts have suggested, I'm against voting for Dems. No, but it's a bad idea to suggest that's a substitute for holding him accountable for his crimes, or can help with a corrupt partisan Supreme Court, or... As for the documents, I'm wondering what's even more special about the ones he totally doesn't still have and has hidden in other places. My confusion is why encouraging people to vote would be a bad idea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 1 hour ago, teej6 said: Is this a good sign for the democrats or have elections changed so much in the recent past that nothing is a predictor anymore? High turnout does not necessarily mean Dems will win, no. However, low turnout would invariably be a bad sign for the Dems, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted October 22, 2022 Author Share Posted October 22, 2022 1 hour ago, teej6 said: Early voter turnout is very high. NYT is reporting: “More than 5.5 million people have cast ballots in person or by mail. Experts predict high turnout in the midterm elections… Through the first five days of early voting in Georgia, in-person turnout is up 70 percent compared with turnout in the 2018 midterm elections, according to the secretary of state’s office. In North Carolina, absentee ballot requests are up 114 percent compared with requests in 2018, according to the board of elections. And in Florida, the total early vote is up 50 percent compared with the early vote in 2018.” Is this a good sign for the democrats or have elections changed so much in the recent past that nothing is a predictor anymore? I plan to vote the first day of early voting, which here is the 29th. Not there's much to vote for, maybe two candidates, mostly voting against as with governor. Again, I'm being forced by the Dems to vote for a non-entity at best, just to keep the reichlicans from getting it -- if indeed they don't get it. They might, since the nonentity incumbent Dem isn't firing up anybody, anybody at all. But I vote in all elections and always have, so no indicator of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teej6 Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 22 minutes ago, Zorral said: I plan to vote the first day of early voting, which here is the 29th. Not there's much to vote for, maybe two candidates, mostly voting against as with governor. Again, I'm being forced by the Dems to vote for a non-entity at best, just to keep the reichlicans from getting it -- if indeed they don't get it. They might, since the nonentity incumbent Dem isn't firing up anybody, anybody at all. But I vote in all elections and always have, so no indicator of anything. Ha! I vote in NYC as well. No choice but to vote for Nadler and Schumer. As for governor, I’m not sure how I feel about Hochul but will be voting for her nevertheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted October 22, 2022 Author Share Posted October 22, 2022 29 minutes ago, teej6 said: Ha! I vote in NYC as well. No choice but to vote for Nadler and Schumer. As for governor, I’m not sure how I feel about Hochul but will be voting for her nevertheless. I know, ya know? At least we have ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
La Grande Mademoiselle Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 1 hour ago, Zorral said: I plan to vote the first day of early voting, which here is the 29th. Not there's much to vote for, maybe two candidates, mostly voting against as with governor. Again, I'm being forced by the Dems to vote for a non-entity at best, just to keep the reichlicans from getting it -- if indeed they don't get it. They might, since the nonentity incumbent Dem isn't firing up anybody, anybody at all. But I vote in all elections and always have, so no indicator of anything. I’m traveling for work that weekend/week so have requested, received, and mailed my absentee ballot. I was not happy with my choices for either house of Congress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThinkerX Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 Bizarre claim that a certain Iowa senator might actually be in danger of losing his seat in this election. Is this even somewhat credible? Or is this poll a fluke? I also have to wonder how many other supposedly 'safe' seats - especially on the House side - are actually not so safe after all. I don't expect any to actually flip, but several far closer than expected contests doesn't seem out of the question. Iowa Poll shows Mike Franken within striking distance of Sen. Chuck Grassley. Could he really win? (msn.com) ----- Mike Franken has less than three weeks to do what no one has been able to accomplish in 64 years: defeat Chuck Grassley. A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows he’s within striking distance. Grassley leads by 3 percentage points among likely voters. Start the day smarter. Get all the news you need in your inbox each morning. “We are right on the cusp, and he knows that,” Franken said of his opponent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 25 minutes ago, ThinkerX said: Bizarre claim that a certain Iowa senator might actually be in danger of losing his seat in this election. Is this even somewhat credible? Or is this poll a fluke? Well, the poll is certainly credible, and not even a fluke. This is the third poll this month that shows Franken down by 3. So..it seems as if he has a good chance to only lose by three. In terms of chances to win, I'd say these polls drop Grassley from, like, 99% to 90%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 On 10/18/2022 at 4:48 PM, Ser Scot A Ellison said: Trumpanistas are the “Know Nothings” of the 1850s… resurgent. It could be worse. Some of the racist politicians of the past, like Governor Talmadge, or Senator Bilbo, were quite vile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 5 hours ago, teej6 said: Early voter turnout is very high. NYT is reporting: “More than 5.5 million people have cast ballots in person or by mail. Experts predict high turnout in the midterm elections… Through the first five days of early voting in Georgia, in-person turnout is up 70 percent compared with turnout in the 2018 midterm elections, according to the secretary of state’s office. In North Carolina, absentee ballot requests are up 114 percent compared with requests in 2018, according to the board of elections. And in Florida, the total early vote is up 50 percent compared with the early vote in 2018.” Is this a good sign for the democrats or have elections changed so much in the recent past that nothing is a predictor anymore? In North Carolina, (I don’t know about other states) they give the party affiliation of early voters, and in that State, a high turnout of early voters is not helping the Democrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRider Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 Nevada early voting starts today, and the SOS office will post ballot totals daily. 2022 Election Information | Nevada Secretary of State (nvsos.gov) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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