DireWolfSpirit Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 The Clark County "Blue Machine" will chew Laxalt to dust and an ignominious defeat. Just wait for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mindwalker Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 Mallory tells it like it is, and MSNBC is trying to make "DJT" a thing (stop it!). McConnell parachutes in with big bucks, strikes deal with Kemp to take Georgia Senate seat McConnell has figured out a devious plan to unite his dark money arm, that Senate Leadership Fund Super PAC, with the get-out-the-vote machine of Georgia’s Republican Gov. Brian Kemp. The two inked the deal on Thursday. Never mind that McConnell is supposed to have nothing at all to do with the operations of the PAC because there is supposed to be a firewall between elected officials and the running of their affiliated PACs. Like McConnell is going to be bothered by legalities.... The PAC will be funding the $2 million-plus campaign, while Kemp will transfer the whole of his GOTV operation—canvassing, data crunching, phone-banking, and micro-targeting—to McConnell’s PAC. Kemp’s team will also be taking over and running the whole field operation. “Gov. Kemp wrote the playbook for how to win big in Georgia, and we are thrilled to partner with his top-notch team to elect Herschel Walker to the Senate,” said Steven Law, the Senate Leadership Fund president. “As we learned in 2020, Republican turnout is essential for victory in a runoff election, and we are leaving no stone unturned—preparing a ground assault to partner with the coming air war.” https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/11/2135386/-McConnell-parachutes-in-with-big-bucks-strikes-deal-with-Kemp-to-take-Georgia-Senate-seat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IheartIheartTesla Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 Based on the trends, even if we call if 4-2 for the Republicans, it will end up being 221-214, which I guess we can all live with. I think there is enough attrition in a 430 odd seat body that things can look very different even a year down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 17 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said: Based on the trends, even if we call if 4-2 for the Republicans, it will end up being 221-214, which I guess we can all live with. My bet is is those tossups go 3 to 3. I'm also so tired of Valadao's seat (CA-22) being one of the last ones to be called. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 19 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said: Based on the trends, even if we call if 4-2 for the Republicans, it will end up being 221-214, which I guess we can all live with. I think there is enough attrition in a 430 odd seat body that things can look very different even a year down the road. Smaller would be nicer. 221 is tight, but not absolute chaos. It's when it gets down to 219 or 218 that I think McCarthy truly wouldn't be able to accomplish anything, including getting himself elected Speaker. I don't know enough about the CA toss-up seats to make any informed guesses there, but I can certainly see Dems taking the two AZs and WA-03. Absolutely no guarantee of anything though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IheartIheartTesla Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 Yeah, 3-3 may be the most likely. As to whether its workable or not for McCarthy, who knows? Also, since we are in the part of the program where everyone is making projections, check out this table for the Nevada Senate race: Based on this CCM squeaks through with 780 votes. It may be lowballing it a bit, but still too close for comfort. Laxalt can pay for a recount if the margin is less than 1% if he wishes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 11 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said: Yeah, 3-3 may be the most likely. As to whether its workable or not for McCarthy, who knows? Also, since we are in the part of the program where everyone is making projections, check out this table for the Nevada Senate race: Based on this CCM squeaks through with 780 votes. It may be lowballing it a bit, but still too close for comfort. Laxalt can pay for a recount if the margin is less than 1% if he wishes. That table seems to assume that the remaining Clark ballots have the same margin as the county average. However, so far the mail ballots have been substantially to the left of that average. If that continues to hold true, CCM should net quite a few more votes. It does give me a bit of pause that the Washoe margin wasn't great last night; but even that vote dump was still to the left of it's county average as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 35 minutes ago, Fez said: That table seems to assume that the remaining Clark ballots have the same margin as the county average. That's exactly what it is. They are taking the current overall vote for each county and assuming that will be the margins for the remaining vote. It's essentially copying and pasting, not analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IheartIheartTesla Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 All that's true, and as I alluded to, that is a reasonable estimate for a lower bound of what CCM's eventual margin will be. People have to do something while waiting for the next Nevada dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IheartIheartTesla Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 Also looking at the Cook House vote tracker, which currently has R 51.9 to D46.7 in the national vote so far of the 100M votes officially tabulated, Will have to wait and see what the final numbers end up at, but that differential is a bit higher than what I'd have expected for a 205/211 seat split. Assuming the same vote split and 'un-gerrymandered' seats would have made Republican gains much higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 27 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said: Also looking at the Cook House vote tracker, which currently has R 51.9 to D46.7 in the national vote so far of the 100M votes officially tabulated, Will have to wait and see what the final numbers end up at, but that differential is a bit higher than what I'd have expected for a 205/211 seat split. Assuming the same vote split and 'un-gerrymandered' seats would have made Republican gains much higher. So… Republican Gerrymandering… hurt them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 41 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said: Also looking at the Cook House vote tracker, which currently has R 51.9 to D46.7 in the national vote so far of the 100M votes officially tabulated You have to take into account that huge chunk of the uncounted vote at this point is from California. Best estimates I've seen is the GOP will win the House popular vote by about a point/point and a half. Which shakes out pretty well to the expected seat makeup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 17 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: So… Republican Gerrymandering… hurt them? Not exactly. It's more likely that if Rs got more votes they got higher turnout in races that didn't matter. Like a lot of Florida for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IheartIheartTesla Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 27 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: So… Republican Gerrymandering… hurt them? Apologies, I meant to say 'un-redistricted' as in pre-2022 maps. Current maps show a stronger correlation between national vote and number of House seats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 20 minutes ago, Kalnestk Oblast said: Not exactly. It's more likely that if Rs got more votes they got higher turnout in races that didn't matter. Like a lot of Florida for example. And not just in the Republican races. Several of the Democratic vote-sink districts (like Bennie Thompson's in Mississippi) seem to have been about 8 points closer than normal. Still blowouts, but not by as much as usual; seemingly because Democratic turnout was lower, rather than any supercharging by Republicans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myshkin Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 Conservative Reddit seems to have turned on The Donald. The Trumpites have very quickly become DeSantinistas. But you know who would never turn on you? Who will always be there to tell you he’s proud of you no matter what? Raphael Warnock, that’s who. Vote Warnock 2022! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varysblackfyre321 Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 23 minutes ago, Myshkin said: Conservative Reddit seems to have turned on The Donald. The Trumpites have very quickly become DeSantinistas. Damn. Trump’s political career is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mindwalker Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 Florida adds more homophobic censorship laws to ‘Don’t Say Gay’ suite of bills On Oct. 19, the Florida Board of Education passed a new set of rules to implement and expand upon controversial laws like the “Don’t Say Gay” and “Stop WOKE” acts, which aim to further censor and punish teachers who instruct on sexual orientation and gender identity. Advocates say the rules are dangerous and still do little to clarify the persistent ambiguity about what constitutes “instruction” on sexual orientation and gender identity, or what burden of proof is necessary to determine when a teacher “espouses, promotes, advances, inculcates, or compels” students to believe certain prohibited concepts.... “[The rule] essentially puts a target on the backs of trans kids, by notifying all of their parents about this,” said Maxx Fenning, the founder and president of PRISM, an organization that works to expand access to LGBTQIA+-inclusive education and sexual health resources for youth in south Florida. ... A second rule includes an expansion of the “Stop WOKE Act,” also known as House Bill 7, by barring “subjecting [students and employees] to training, instruction, or any other required activity that espouses, promotes, advances, inculcates, or compels any of the concepts” related to their administration’s definition of critical race theory. A third rule offers specifications on House Bill 1467, which mandates that elementary school libraries post their educational and reading materials online and make them accessible for parents to search through. Friedman says this will force librarians to reconsider including books with LGBTQIA+ content—eliminating representation that has been crucial for LGBTQIA+ students. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/12/2135153/-Florida-adds-more-homophobic-censorship-laws-to-Don-t-Say-Gay-suite-of-bills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 Partner said: Quote "hearing it wasn't enough. you had to see it. he's a scrawny dude, it wasn't a designated firing range, and he comes across as creepier. He's the mass-murderest of all the candidates they've had yet. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThinkerX Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 Well, I have said for a long while now that Biden 2024 wasn't going to happen. And, unless she gets her act together, Harris 2024 is a sure route to disaster (unless Trump is the candidate, in which case, nail biter.) AOC - too young, too radical (but maybe a possibility after the DeSantis impeachment in 2027. But this scheme seems a little out there. Got me wondering if somebody a D HQ got hold of a really weird batch of drugs. So, would this guy make a viable D candidate for POTUS? Maybe with AOC in the Veep slot? Here’s a game plan: Biden replaces Harris with Newsom and then resigns (msn.com) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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