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US Politics: The Copper, Silver, and Peach hangover


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5 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

Just a fantastically stupid idea.  It is also illegal (the VP cannot just be replaced by the president).  But for a party campaigning on "we care about democracy" appointing a random dude nobody ever voted for sounds like a great formula for a wipeout. 

Not to mention that Newsome kinda sucks.  If we're looking for a dream candidate, he is not your man.

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1 minute ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

I'm not Wasserman, but I've seen enough.

I..wouldn't call a race based on union outreach to ensure cured ballots are counted.  That's at least a couple levels of assumptions.  Let's just see how the standard votes turn out tonight first.

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Also, even if this was a good idea (which it isn't), Newsom is an awful choice. He isn't that charismatic, he looks like an '80s movie villain, and he runs slightly behind a generic Democrat in his California elections. Whitmer seems pretty clearly to me to be the best Dem governor waiting in the wings (Polis is number 2; by 2028 Shapiro may be up there too).

But, unless Biden's health declines dramatically, he seems certain to run for re-election. And I think probably is the strongest candidate Democrats could put forward in 2024 anyway.

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2 minutes ago, Fez said:

Newsom is an awful choice. He isn't that charismatic, he looks like an '80s movie villain, and he runs slightly behind a generic Democrat in his California elections.

I'm biased because I've at least had a distaste for Newsom for 20 years now - back when he was married to Kimberly Guilfoyle - but I've always thought he's John Edwards all over again.  He's matured since then, to be fair, but yeah he still is a non-starter as a presidential candidate for me.  Moreover, he IS fairly close to Harris and has been for a long time.  He's almost certainly not going to challenge her, let alone the horseshit in that article.

Anyway, agreed, in terms of governors Whitmer is the most promising.  And rather obviously.  Polis is an interesting VP option, as is Roy Cooper.  Shapiro does have a huge opportunity to distinguish himself, but I wouldn't jump the gun on that just yet.

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1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

Just a fantastically stupid idea.  It is also illegal (the VP cannot just be replaced by the president).  But for a party campaigning on "we care about democracy" appointing a random dude nobody ever voted for sounds like a great formula for a wipeout. 

Not to mention that Newsome kinda sucks.  If we're looking for a dream candidate, he is not your man.

He does. He's one of these phony guys the media loves, but nobody else does.

As for Biden... I'm not sure he's the strongest candidate, but my guess is that this ... well, not exactly victory, more like lack of bloodbath... will encourage him to run again (unless he doesn't really want to).

ETA: Former guy sues against his Jan 6 subpoena. Yawn.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/11/trump-sues-to-block-subpoena-from-house-jan-6-committee-00066606

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I think we all have to accept that Biden is almost as certain to run as Trump at this point.  He clearly intimated it at his first presser after Tuesday - more so than ever before.  And while I really don't want him to, I can't really blame him.  You have to remember that this is a guy that was tacitly told not to run by his President/boss in 2016 even though he was a great VP for a generally successful two-term presidency.  It's hard to not feel he deserves it.

That being said, if we're doing hypotheticals, the idea that Harris wouldn't be the best nominee if he doesn't run is interminably stupid.

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How I see it...

Biden vs Trump = nailbiter (more of a mess than this election)

Harris vs Trump = nailbiter, but leaning Trump

Biden vs DeSantis = DeSantis wins. A narrow win, but still...

Harris vs DeSantis = DeSantis wins easily

Only bright spot is that a DeSantis administration would be so completely corrupt that impeachment is at least possible. 

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Just now, ThinkerX said:

Biden vs Trump = nailbiter (more of a mess than this election)

Harris vs Trump = nailbiter, but leaning Trump

Biden vs DeSantis = DeSantis wins. A narrow win, but still...

Harris vs DeSantis = DeSantis wins easily

Sure, this is the conventional wisdom.  As the last week reminded us, the conventional wisdom is almost always stupid and wrong.

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Not to mention we have over a year until then.

A lot of crazy things can happen in a year.

I mean, in less than a year Russia invaded Ukraine, and then proceeded to get the shit slapped out of themselves. 
 

Did anyone honestly see that happening in November of 2021?

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4 hours ago, Myshkin said:

Conservative Reddit seems to have turned on The Donald. The Trumpites have very quickly become DeSantinistas.

They jumped to the new marching orders fast then.

I do wonder if the rank and file will do the same or if they're sneering at the Fox talking heads badmouthing Trump and talking up DeSantis right now.

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1 minute ago, Paladin of Ice said:

They jumped to the new marching orders fast then.

Democrats should encourage the infighting where they can.

Concern troll on how odd it is how every pro-trump candidate in areas controlled by the corporate gop just floundered, while Trump’s main rival coincidentally did great.

If trump loses the primary, likely he takes a large part of the gop with him.

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I really wish we'd stop thinking Trump's base is going to abandon him after a historically horrible election result just because of reddit posts.  These people didn't abandon him when he galvanized a mob that attacked the Capitol and tried to hang his own Vice President.

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