Ukraine: Ongoing…

[Zorral]

Well, they are planning to leave the ICC so they don't have to abide by its agreements.  So you figure it out.

[Werthead]

5 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Does an ICC warrant override diplomatic immunity? Or does an ICC warrant require a country to deny diplomatic credentials to that person?

Technically, if you're signed up to the ICC you have to arrest the person, no exceptions for diplomatic status.

However, South Africa has just straight-up ignored ICC rulings in the past when hosting the former President of Sudan, so they could just do that again. Also, they did try to leave the ICC in the past but were overridden by the court. Whether that's likely to happen again is unclear.

South Africa is trying to balance what it sees is a route to unprecedented global influence as a member of the BRICS block with its strong economic ties with the EU and not wanting to piss of the US too much, rather like Brazil and India, but whilst India is playing a smarter game of staying neutral but maintaining close ties with Europe and the US, South Africa seems a bit more willing to support the Russian position, though only up to a point.

[The Anti-Targ]

At this point it seems like rather a head scratcher for smaller countries to be hitching even a small wagon to Russia. Even China is playing both sides of this. So if they are hedging then smaller countries have to be crazy to be seen as on Russia's side, even if only up to a point.

[House Balstroko]

2 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

At this point it seems like rather a head scratcher for smaller countries to be hitching even a small wagon to Russia. Even China is playing both sides of this. So if they are hedging then smaller countries have to be crazy to be seen as on Russia's side, even if only up to a point.

Are they betting on BRICS being a bigger deal than it actually is?

 

[Tywin et al.]

Russia is claiming Ukraine attacked the Kremlin in an attempt to kill Putin with...two drones that did nothing.

If I had to bet it sounds more like a lazy false flag attack than an assassination attempt. 

[Maithanet]

17 hours ago, Werthead said:

He may be more on the money. Prigozhin's importance has been downgraded continuously over the last 6-8 months and he's been resorting to increasingly odd PR tactics to make himself seem important and invaluable to the Russian cause. His willingness to recruit criminals and sacrifice scum to achieve objectives, leaving ordinary "proper" Russians unharmed, has helped keep PR discontent over the war at a low ebb (despite some issues, like criminals surviving a tour of duty going home and immediately going on a crime rampage) and has helped Putin's cause. But the fact his new recruits are too shit to actually win major military breakthroughs and just grind forwards with thousands of losses per 1000 square meters of gained territory isn't really accomplishing anything. Russia needs to be able to win large pitched battles and secure large chunks of territory quickly, and his approach is not working (I'm not sure any approach will now work with that goal), otherwise it's going to take over two years just to reach the borders of the Donbas (by Prigozhin's own estimates).

In terms of sustainable casualties, 5:1 is far, far too high. At 3:1 (the base population difference between Russia and Ukraine) the Russians might be able to sell it, but not that high.

As we've both said before, this war will be decided by the destruction and replacements of material, not men.  The loser will be whichever side runs out of equipment or ammunition to the extent that they can no longer sustain an effective fighting force.  That can be brought on in a variety of ways.  Ukraine fears waning international support, whereas Russia/Putin fears economic meltdown, political unrest, and a gradual degradation of military/logistics capabilities such that the front collapses. 

Russia using prisoners as woefully ineffective soldiers helps keep the war going without much economic or political risks.  Russia's theory of victory is basically that if they can not lose the war long enough, eventually they can freeze the conflict and win some real concessions from Ukraine. 

Russia's prison population is nowhere near that of the US, and they are basically out of prison volunteers.  There are already reports of prisoners being forced (beaten, withheld food, etc) to sign up for Wagner.  But those prisoners will be even worse soldiers than the ones who signed up in exchange for a pardon.  And many, many prisoners are simply not fit to be infantrymen (too old, terrible health, etc).  Pirogozhin's plan of extending the war via the blood of prisoners really only works if what Russia needs is low quality conscripts.  Such troops are useful in some military contexts, but an active hinderance in others.  For example, in the event of a Ukrainian breakthrough and Russian retreat, those men would probably prefer to surrender rather than retreat and could be as much a danger to Russian forces as Ukrainian. 

[Derfel Cadarn]

Apparent assassination attempt on Putin with a drone

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-russia-war-latest-putin-assassination-attempt-as-kremlin-residence-attacked-by-drones-moscow-claims-12541713

[Wilbur]

A drone that detonates in a puff of smoke next to the Russian flag flying over the Kremlin seems a lot more like a performative act rather than a serious assassination attempt, particularly given that Putin doesn't actually spend a lot of time in the Kremlin.

I bet it doesn't improve Putin's mental health much, though.

On an unrelated topic, RLL has a terrific historical run-down on why Iran has gotten into the Ukrainian invasion act with Russia:

 

Edited May 3, 2023 by Wilbur
RLL video

[Spockydog]

1 hour ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

Apparent assassination attempt on Putin with a drone

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-russia-war-latest-putin-assassination-attempt-as-kremlin-residence-attacked-by-drones-moscow-claims-12541713

Is this some kind of joke? Bizarre stuff. 

Edited May 3, 2023 by Spockydog

[Derfel Cadarn]

Soubds like a false flag to drum up sone outrage. Which is a cheek given Russia sent troops in with orders to kill Zelenskyy

[Maithanet]

It clearly isn't is an assassination attempt.  Those tiny drones were never going to achieve anything, and Putin is rarely even in that building. 

Ukraine hasn't been wasting resources on symbolic targets, they use drone strikes on ships, oil depots, logistics hubs, etc.  A strike like this has no military benefits.  It is more likely to galvanize the Russian populace to continue fighting than to convince them that Russia needs to change its approach.  It just doesn't make a lot of sense. 

By far the most likely thing is that this is a false flag operation.  Declare that the Ukrainians are terrorists and whip up the population to sacrifice more young men. 

[DireWolfSpirit]

Putin has a new conscription tool making options much worse for draftees.

From NPR-

Draftees are banned from leaving the country

On a basic level, the new law makes it very difficult for Russians — mostly men but also women with specialized skills — to avoid being drafted or conscripted.

Until now, military recruitment officers have had to go in person to deliver a paper summons to a draftee's home or workplace."

Now apparently, they have their talons into them as soon as a notice is sent, even just an electronic notice and you are banned from leaving Russia.

The noose tightens on the populace.

 

Edited May 3, 2023 by DireWolfSpirit

[mormont]

2 hours ago, Maithanet said:

It clearly isn't is an assassination attempt.  Those tiny drones were never going to achieve anything, and Putin is rarely even in that building. 

Ukraine hasn't been wasting resources on symbolic targets, they use drone strikes on ships, oil depots, logistics hubs, etc.  A strike like this has no military benefits.  It is more likely to galvanize the Russian populace to continue fighting than to convince them that Russia needs to change its approach.  It just doesn't make a lot of sense. 

By far the most likely thing is that this is a false flag operation.  Declare that the Ukrainians are terrorists and whip up the population to sacrifice more young men. 

I'm usually sceptical of 'false flag' claims but let's face it, Putin has significant history in that area.

[Maithanet]

11 minutes ago, mormont said:

I'm usually sceptical of 'false flag' claims but let's face it, Putin has significant history in that area.

There are several reasons why a false flag is the most likely conclusion:

1.  Russia has a history of false flag attacks.

2. The move makes no sense for Ukraine strategically.  It is counterproductive and contrary to their conduct in the war thus far. 

3. Nobody saw these drones until they appeared over Red Square?  And then they just happen to be shot down directly over Kremlin, with a Russian flag flapping in the same frame? 

4. The two drone attacks were ~ 20 minutes apart (as appears on the clock visible in video footage), and yet the second one was again able to penetrate Red Square?  But there is no significant security presence as a result of the first attack.  As the saying goes, "What Russian Air Defense Doing?"

EDIT: Added 4th point. 

Edited May 3, 2023 by Maithanet
EDIT: Added 4th point.

[Corvinus85]

But even as false flags go, this is pretty weak. Putin wouldn't shy away from killing a few people to really stoke anger.

I think it could just as likely be some of those Russian partisans that have sabotaged some stuff in the past.

[Maithanet]

There has been some speculation that the drone attack was in fact some faction within Russia rather than a planned attempt by the government itself.  Likely a pro-war group trying to whip up hostility.  The main evidence for this is that the clips of the attack actually have not been prominently featured on Russian media, which would be very odd for a false flag attack. 
However, I would call that a distinction without a difference.  It is still a false flag attack, whether it was authorized at the highest levels or not. 

[Derfel Cadarn]

 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

2 hours ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

 

The Russian got exactly what he asked for.  What a shithead.

[The Anti-Targ]

Pathetic childish ways so-called diplomatic representatives behave. No wonder geopolitical relationships are such shit when grown arse adults are behaving like elementary school kids.

[Derfel Cadarn]

Wagner allegedly pulling out of Bakhmut due to ammo shortages. Maybe just a shot across Putin’s bow to get more supplies.