Ser Scot A Ellison Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 6 minutes ago, SeanF said: It seems like quite the breakout is taking place. I sincerely hope so… do we have confirmation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted June 11, 2023 Author Share Posted June 11, 2023 Nah. At least ISW is certainly not saying that. Ukraine has been attacking, but Russia has been defending well and under their correct tactical doctrines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 13 minutes ago, Kalnak the Magnificent said: Nah. At least ISW is certainly not saying that. Ukraine has been attacking, but Russia has been defending well and under their correct tactical doctrines. That’s the twitter page I’ve been watching too. They tend to be very careful about declarations of “breakthroughs”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 Ukraine is definitely advancing, but they have not had a breakthrough. There are still well fortified Russian positions in front of them across the entire line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 Ukraine has blown one of the key rail bridges carrying supplies from Crimea. People wondered why they didn't do this ages ago - it's been in HIMARS range for months - but doing it right now prevents reinforcement and resupply to the front for several days to a couple of weeks. JGP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Anti-Targ Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 Saw a video from one Ukrainian Youtuber claiming Russia has blown up a[nother] dam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 42 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said: Saw a video from one Ukrainian Youtuber claiming Russia has blown up a[nother] dam. Again on the Dnipro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Anti-Targ Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 17 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: Again on the Dnipro? No, some relatively small river / dam to the east. Kliuchove village. A small lake and a small dam, but still another piece of locally important infrastructure destroyed by the retreating force to slow the advance of the attacking force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Which Tyler Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 (edited) 8 hours ago, Werthead said: Ukraine has blown one of the key rail bridges carrying supplies from Crimea. People wondered why they didn't do this ages ago - it's been in HIMARS range for months - but doing it right now prevents reinforcement and resupply to the front for several days to a couple of weeks I saw that one yesterday - actually, I thought I saw it on here. It looks like a small road bridge that goes over a railway, rather than a railway bridge itself. Which ought to mean that it's repairable in a matter of days, maybe weeks if there's significant damage to the tracks. Meaning that it'll be more difficult for Russia to supply Melitopol in the short-term, but shouldn't be too damaging to repair post-war. Otherwise, here's a roundup of the last couple of days https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1668034394160873473 Edited June 12, 2023 by Which Tyler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toth Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 (edited) First POV footage of a Leopard in action: Very textbook use of shoot & scoot, making use of the tank's mobility advantage and even using a smokescreen to retreat from a position. We need more of that! Though a little annoyed at the Wehrmacht Balkenkreuz. I know it's probably just soldier's humor, trying to taunt the Russians, but it's still quite tone-deaf. Couldn't a modern Bundeswehr cross be enough to say "Look at our shiny NATO toys coming to get you!"? Edited June 12, 2023 by Toth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 More and more indications that the offensive is just getting started, and that already the Russians are struggling. Most of the new Ukrainian brigades are still waiting to deploy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilbur Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 All the munitions, especially the mines, swept down the Dnipro by the water hammer and set loose at random as a result of the dam's destruction are going to pose a terrible risk to human life and property for the next few decades. Going to the beach is going to be a risky proposition for years to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 This headline is worth parsing a few times. Kalbear, Fez, hauberk and 7 others 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 Good summary from WT's link: Ukraine making progress around the NW approaches to Bakhmut as well as the SW. The Russians appear to be giving ground, and a Russian counterattack at Berkhivka was defeated by Ukrainian forces. The Velyka Novosilka front is where Russian forces have been divided, split apart and driven back, with a whole cluster of small villages liberated. Not a war-winning success, but a huge morale boost and Russia's progress around Bakhmut has been so appalling that Ukraine could shortly have liberated more territory than it lost during Russia's last Donbas offensive. Some interesting signs that Ukraine may have achieved some victories near Vasylivka. That's important because it hinges the far western end of the southern front on the Dnipro. Ukraine pushing forwards there could shortly put them in position of the nuclear plant Russia controls in the area. It looks like Japan is close to agreeing to export military equipment and supplies to Ukraine, whilst South Korea is again strongly considering it under American pressure (South Korea's artillery production capacity is one of the largest in the world, and SK artillery guns and shells could be transferred to Ukraine in vast quantities). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 Both sides are trying to get the other side to deploy (more of) their forces, because once deployed they can be destroyed with artillery. So it's a strange poker game between the two sides as Ukraine is trying to push hard enough to demand Russian reinforcements, but with as few of their best units as possible. Ukraine is making the most of its qualitative advantage in artillery to be able to suppress Russian artillery and advance without deploying significant forces. If this first week is anything to go on, this counterattack is going to take many weeks, if not more. But the fact remains that Ukraine is moving forward and is doing so with a significant reserve of troops available to reinforce when the time is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted June 13, 2023 Share Posted June 13, 2023 (edited) Makarivka has been retaken by Ukraine as part of its Zaporizhzhia offensive. The Russians staged a major counterattack there and were beaten back with heavy losses from the sound of it. That might be a sign of what was talked about earlier on, these attacks are trying to get Russia to commit their reserves to zero them and they might have done so there. Over 100 square kilometres has now been retaken in about 36 hours. Not staggering spectacular, but slow and steady progress. One issue the Russians are concerned about on Telegram is that Ukraine has not reached the main defensive line yet, but Russian commanders are ordering troops to leave the line and move forwards to the contact line to try to hold there, which is moronically stupid. Some units seem to be refusing to do that and actually staying in their pre-prepared defensive position. Russia seems to be partially ignoring its own military doctrine, which is weird (but on-brand in this conflict). There's also signs of Russian units leaving the main defensive trenches to take up position in buildings to avoid being zeroed by Ukrainian spotter drones for artillery. A Russian oil facility at Krasnodar has been blown up and is burning like a MFer. That's east of the Kerch Straits Bridge. Not a clear indication on what caused it; if it was HIMARS (possibly firing GLSDB) that's a clear warning to every Russian on the Crimean Peninsula that their evacuation route is now in range and can be destroyed at Ukraine's pleasure. More likely some kind of sabotage though. An industrial facility in St. Petersburg is also on fire. The cause is unknown. Edited June 13, 2023 by Werthead Which Tyler 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted June 13, 2023 Share Posted June 13, 2023 I don't know how seriously to take it, but the war of words between Shoigu and Prigozhin is escalating to dangerous levels. Shoigu and his allies have been making statements that Wagner was receiving illegal quantities of fuel in the war zone, which is seemingly setting the stage to declare Wagner guilty of theft. I haven't heard of any actual fighting beyond the little skirmish last week where Wagner captured and tortured a Russian Lt. Colonel for "shooting at Wagner troops". Shoigu can't easily oust Prigozhin without Putin's go ahead, and Shoigu is not a popular man at the moment. Not clear where this goes from here, but Shoigu has been the consummate survivor in Russian politics, and this kind of conflict (as opposed to the actual battlefield) is where he excels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derfel Cadarn Posted June 13, 2023 Share Posted June 13, 2023 Meanwhile in Putin’s world: “"We are gradually demilitarising Ukraine," he says. "We will have to set up air defence - the task will be fulfilled."” https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-russia-war-latest-dam-flood-counteroffensive-wagner-putin-12541713?postid=6046255#liveblog-body Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted June 13, 2023 Share Posted June 13, 2023 1 hour ago, Derfel Cadarn said: Meanwhile in Putin’s world: “"We are gradually demilitarising Ukraine," he says. "We will have to set up air defence - the task will be fulfilled."” https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-russia-war-latest-dam-flood-counteroffensive-wagner-putin-12541713?postid=6046255#liveblog-body Doesn’t he mean “remilitarising Ukraine?” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted June 13, 2023 Share Posted June 13, 2023 "Dilemma for UK authors as Russia offers huge sums for escapist fiction Writers are receiving enticing bids for foreign rights to their books this spring, but many feel they cannot accept the money while the war continues" https://www.theguardian.com/books/2023/jun/11/dilemma-for-uk-authors-as-russia-offers-huge-sums-for-escapist-fiction Quote .... Stories involving crime and romance, as well as historical sagas, sci-fi and fantasy, are at a premium, with the size of some Russian bids doubling. “Suddenly demand is strong, especially in the more escapist genres,” said Nash, whose company represents a range of popular writers in a couple of the key genres. “The market was depressed after the pandemic and the start of the war, but it is definitely back now.” .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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