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The Ukraine War: Casus Belgorod


Kalbear
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3 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Well, that's all fun.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's 79th Brigade has apparently repulsed a Russian assault on their positions near Marinka and apparently followed up by capturing the Russian positions from which the attack was launched. These positions are on the other side of the 2014-22 line of contact in Donbas, meaning that Ukraine has simply waltzed over Russian positions that have been heavily fortified since 2014, and are in the city limits of Donetsk City itself. Which is quite amusing. In that sector, the Russians are now worse off than they were on February 22nd last year. Unclear if Ukraine can hold, their forces might be better advised to return to the launching point. Mind you, if the Russian position in the region is as tenuous as Priogzhin suggests (remember: he is full of shit), who knows.

I don't think pulling back is the way to go. This is might be the breach Ukraine hoped for. So retreating and letting Russia reman the fortified positions sounds like a bad idea. I think they will push trhough there.

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Apparently Russia has a civil defence plan codenamed FORTRESS, which just sounds like martial law. Rostov has reportedly enacted it, and preparations for it to be enacted in Moscow are being made, which is nuts (Moscow is a thousand kilometres north of Rostov).

Watch carefully the reaction from Chechnya. So far they are loudly proclaiming support for Putin, but it does not sound like Kadyrov has marshalled any of his own troops. He'll likely bide his time to see which way the wind is blowing.

3 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

I don't think pulling back is the way to go. This is might be the breach Ukraine hoped for. So retreating and letting Russia reman the fortified positions sounds like a bad idea. I think they will push trhough there.

This isn't near the main area of contention where the fighting has been for the last week (which is further west), this is right at the far SE end of the line where it intersects Donetsk City and then swings northwards (Bakhmut is not huge far to the north). An opportunist moment that Ukraine has made full advantage of, but I'm not sure they can reinforce massively into the breach.

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4 minutes ago, Werthead said:

This isn't near the main area of contention where the fighting has been for the last week (which is further west), this is right at the far SE end of the line where it intersects Donetsk City and then swings northwards (Bakhmut is not huge far to the north). An opportunist moment that Ukraine has made full advantage of, but I'm not sure they can reinforce massively into the breach.

If they can bypass and take some of the fortified Russian positions in the rear. I'd think the calculus has to be, if they can get enough men and material through that breach. 

 

If anybody know the Russian translation to alea iacta est...

We at least now know the Russian equivalent to Rubicon. So let's see how our would be Cesar does.

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The US is strongly considering a bipartisan resolution that would treat the destruction of the Ukrainian nuclear plant or the detonation of a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine as an Article V matter.

They are saying explicitly in public what they told Russia in no uncertain terms last year: any nuclear attack or "accident" in Ukraine will result in NATO's conventional forces obliterating Russia's military in Ukraine with such severity that they will never recover from it.

Meanwhile:

 

 

Edited by Werthead
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5 minutes ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

Wagner apparently nownattacking Russian forces holding Bakhmut. Some parts of Russian mikitry switxhing sides maybe

Gosh, sounds like the magarat US House of Representatives!  Purge Marjory Taylor Green!

Or -- this being the twitbase, are these twits from AI manufacture?  :dunno:

Edited by Zorral
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There is shit going down in Bakhmut, but unclear how extensive. Also, Ukraine has been launching small attacks around the fringes of the city for weeks, they might be amping that up as well.

One of the anti-Putin Russian patriot brigades raiding Belgorod has praised Prigozhin and called him a patriot, and offered to cut a deal so they can work together.

Sounds like Shoigu had ordered a bunch of extra troops to Rostov, but then turned around and ordered some of them to Belgorod, apparently not sure where the real threat was coming from.

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This made me laff.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/23/wagner-chief-accuses-russias-military-of-attack-and-says-evil-leadership-must-be-stopped

Quote

.... Amid rumours that columns of Wagner fighters were already on the move, General Sergei Surovikin, the deputy commander of Russia’s Ukraine campaign, released a video address ordering the mercenaries to remain loyal to Putin. ....

Checking history.  Yes,  Many a commander has said that. 

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