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The Ukraine War: Casus Belgorod


Kalbear
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5 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Musk shutting down twitter for Putin or something else?

No, local administrators using emergency powers to simply shut off the Internet. It's not entirely working, too many people have satellite Internet because the domestic service is pretty shit.

Bridges being closed in Moscow, makeshift checkpoints have gone up. The routes to the presidential residence have been sealed off.

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Prigozhin's latest statement is the Russian Air Force pilots were ordered to attack Wagner forces on Russian soil, but they refused, citing the danger of civilian casualties. No evidence presented for this.

So far, not one video or photograph of the so-called Wagner column advancing ominously towards Moscow.

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40 minutes ago, Werthead said:

This is a one-shot power run at Moscow. It might not pay off but maybe it has a 30% chance of succeeding, not the 5% some people are thinking.

Also this was now or never for him. 

Putin told him to hand over his toy (Wagner mercs) to Shoigu (MoD) by the end of the month. Thus his window of opportunity was closing. 

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I don't think I want Prigozhin in charge of Russia. He's built and led an army of rabid dogs that have pillaged their way across parts of Ukraine and have done the same everywhere in the world where they were deployed. 

My hope is that this rebellion, civil war or whatever we call it weakens Russia militarily to the point that Ukraine makes massive gains, the DPR and LPR realize that after so many losses that they've been fucked over by Russia and decide to come to the table with Ukraine's government, and then hopefully Russia pulls out of whatever else they hold. Add in a few more good strikes against the Black Sea Fleet and maybe the Russians decide it's not worth even holding on to Crimea. 

Edited by Corvinus85
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10 hours ago, Corvinus85 said:

I don't think Prigozhin in charge of Russia. He's built and led an army of rabid dogs that have pillaged their way across parts of Ukraine and have done the same everywhere in the world where they were deployed. 

My hope is that this rebellion, civil war or whatever we call it weakens Russia militarily to the point that Ukraine makes massive gains, the DPR and LPR realize that after so many losses that they've been fucked over by Russia and decide to come to the table with Ukraine's government, and then hopefully Russia pulls out of whatever else they hold. Add in a few more good strikes against the Black Sea Fleet and maybe the Russians decide it's not worth even holding on to Crimea. 

Optimistic, I think. More likely Russia pulls its forces out of Ukraine to deal with a massive internal struggle/coup/civil war in Russia, perhaps thinking to "finish them off" later on, by which time it'll be too late and Ukraine will be firmly in NATO and Russia either commits suicide or comes to some peace deal.

Most likely I think is that a lot of people wait to see how this "massive Wagner column" (still not photographed or on video yet) thing pans out and throw their lot in with the winner. Although if things are really kicking off in Russia, I can see the soldiers on the front in Ukraine going, "Well, why the fuck are we here and not at home?"

The US has now chimed in to say its intelligence forces agree that Wagner units do seem to be on the move on a relatively large scale in both the Rostov and Belgorod regions.

Edited by Werthead
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Among reasons for me, at least, to remain without going rah rah rah, is Prigozhin,is the guy who ran a lot of the troll farms that sowed havoc in the 2016 US election. 

Ya. this is making it about the USA, I know.

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There is finally some (limited) videos out showing flashes and gunshots around Rostov.  This is alleged to be the contribution between Wagner and rosgvardia.  Nothing definitive, but it is more evidence that this is actually happening and not just a coup of words.

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Too early to say for sure, and seizing the southern military district headquarters is not the same thing as seizing all of the southern military district's bases, but...

Wagner may become nuclear-armed in the very near future.

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2 minutes ago, Fez said:

Too early to say for sure, and seizing the southern military district headquarters is not the same thing as seizing all of the southern military district's bases, but...

Wagner may become nuclear-armed in the very near future.

That’s frightening.  Then again we have no idea how well maintain the Russian nuclear arsenal actually is.

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President Egghead?

Still no selfie from Kadyrov?

Wrt Lukashenko getting the hell out of Dodge. Kinda on brand for Russia, to transfer nuclear weapons to country and then thei puppet to run away within a fortnight. Even with nukes involved, you still kinda have to laugh at the timeline.

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Looking at the other kids toys, no way Drumpf didnt have  a stupendously envious toddler shitfit down in his Mar-a-Lago sandbox.

—-

This is all just crazy.

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1 hour ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Hum, I dunno. I just assume an account named catturd is making fun Dilbert and Scott Adams.

Catbert, catturd. I mean the white fur cat with glasses already looks very Dilbert like. 

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