The Ukraine War: Casus Belgorod

[Werthead]

Russian forces bombing the highway between Rostov and Moscow. Totally normal.

Some footage of Wagner troop and tank carriers geolocated to Horse-Kolodezsky, which is north of Voronezh city.

Moscow is 595 miles from Rostov-on-Don, but 307 miles from Voronezh city and 258 miles from Horse-Kolodezsky. Still a while to go but that's very rapid movement.

Some reports that Medvedev has fled the capital, but it's hard to be sure because nobody cares.

 

Edited June 24, 2023 by Werthead

[Toth]

4 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Russian forces bombing the highway between Rostov and Moscow. Totally normal.

Some footage of Wagner troop and tank carriers geolocated to Horse-Kolodezsky, which is north of Voronezh city.

Moscow is 595 miles from Rostov-on-Don, but 307 miles from Voronezh city and 258 miles from Horse-Kolodezsky. Still a while to go but that's very rapid movement.

There's more and more videos trickling in about small arms fire engagements in Voronezh and the Wagner troops in Rostov clearing streets of civilians pretty much immediately after Putin's speech. Shit is about to go down.

Have also spent a bit too much time scrolling through the M-4 on Google Maps. That's one loooooooooong ass road ahead. That is plenty of time for the Russian air force to get their bearings together and intercept them. Wagner is seen hauling two Pantsirs along, but still... I have a hard time believing fighter jets wouldn't be able to blow the motorway up.

And even if they reach Moscow, what then? Putin's National Guard has mobilized and those are on Putin's personal payroll. Will be interesting to see whether they would let Wagner pass like their severely outnumbered and outgunned guys we've seen folding at Rostov. Here the situation would be much the opposite and Wagner should, realistically, get blown to bits. In many ways I'm thinking the Wagner advanced force is a desperate suicide commando, but part of me wonders just how many allies Prigozhin has managed to get at the right places to make the seemingly insane work.

[Werthead]

Some reports of fighting in Rostov, suggesting some regime-loyal forces have arrived and are trying to mount a counter-attack.

Russian military units are reportedly massing in Krasnodar, SE of Rostov.

ETA: Fucking hell.

 

Edited June 24, 2023 by Werthead

[A Horse Named Stranger]

11 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Some reports of fighting in Rostov, suggesting some regime-loyal forces have arrived and are trying to mount a counter-attack.

 

The Chechen selfie-stick?

[Werthead]

This is just east of Voronezh city, a city of over a million people.  No idea where that rocket ended up, but it was headed straight into the city.

 

Putin has spoken to the President of Kazakhstan, who has curtly told him, "this is purely an internal affair of Russia's."

Edited June 24, 2023 by Werthead

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

It sounds like Prigozhin and Wagner seem, to me, to be attempting a modern version of Xenophon’s “March of the Ten Thousand”.  

It feels like the writers of our timeline are afraid our show is going to be cancelled and keep thowing new shit to keep the viewer’s interest.

[Werthead]

Wagner has shot down a heavy transport plane trying to land in Voronezh. Hundreds of Russian military deaths.

Wagner is moving so fast the Russian MoD does not know where the front is.

[Fez]

There are reports of prisoner riots beginning in Moscow. Almost certainly in response to all this, but unknown if it's opportunism or something Wagner actually coordinated. They certainly have plenty of contacts in the penal system.

Overall though, yeah this convey heading to Moscow only succeeds if there's allies ready to join them. So far there hasn't been that much resistance to Wagner, but there hasn't been much evidence of anyone switching sides either. 

[Derfel Cadarn]

21 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

The Chechen selfie-stick?

Dance-off bro!

[Toth]

21 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

It sounds like Prigozhin and Wagner seem, to me, to be attempting a modern version of Xenophon’s “March of the Ten Thousand”.  

It feels like the writers of our timeline are afraid our show is going to be cancelled and keep thowing new shit to keep the viewer’s interest.

Eh, that's unfair, the mercenaries in Anabasis just wanted to get home while stuck in enemy territory. In terms of motivation, this is really a literal crossing of the Rubicon. This is Caesar marching on Rome after the Senate ordered him to disband his army and stand trial for unlawfully waging war in Gaul and Caesar being "Nah, I'm coming home alright, but with my army!"

Edited June 24, 2023 by Toth

[SeanF]

At this point Putin is screaming "Guards, Guards!" out of the window, while elsewhere in the Kremlin, a senior general is saying to his colleagues "Okay boys and girls, it's show time!"

[Werthead]

Massive dump trucks are lining up on the Moscow ring road, dumping sand and then being used to help block the highway.

They fully expect Wagner to not be stopped short of Moscow and then a fight for the capital. Wagner's column seems to be pretty intact with only a couple of vehicles destroyed in that bombing. The column has quite a few T-90s and T-80s attached to it.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

The saying about Strongman looking strongest just before they comes to mind.

Right now, I'd bet on Prigozhin winning this confrontation rather sooner than later.

[Werthead]

5 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

The saying about Strongman looking strongest just before they comes to mind.

Right now, I'd bet on Prigozhin winning this confrontation rather sooner than later.

Yeah, Priogzhin's winning chances are rocketing up the clearer it becomes the Russia really does have jack shit to stop him with.

Military and civil defence units leaving St. Petersburg for Moscow. Reportedly Chechen forces are now headed to Rostov.

Moscow is now formally on a terrorist alert.

Edited June 24, 2023 by Werthead

[Darzin]

I don't think Wagner is doomed without defectors. It depends on the quality of the FSB internal troops and National Guard stationed there. These are green third rate soldiers going against Russia's elite. Plus Wagner is likely pretty motivated if they win they're gonna get a huge payout if they lose their going to be shot. 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

3 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Yeah, Priogzhin's winning chances are rocketing up the clearer it becomes the Russia really does have jack shit to stop him with.

Military and civil defence units leaving St. Petersburg for Moscow. Reportedly Chechen forces are now headed to Rostov.

Moscow is now formally on a terrorist alert.

Any bets, when he will call Zelenskyy begging for help?

I mean he is running out of options rather quick. The Kazakhs tuurned him down, Lukashenko has possibly bailed... Where else could he go? The Chinese will also tell him, that Russia's domestic problems are not theirs.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

8 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Yeah, Priogzhin's winning chances are rocketing up the clearer it becomes the Russia really does have jack shit to stop him with.

Military and civil defence units leaving St. Petersburg for Moscow. Reportedly Chechen forces are now headed to Rostov.

Moscow is now formally on a terrorist alert.

Is the Russian MOD pulling Units from Ukraine to oppose Wagner?

[The Wondering Wolf]

17 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Wagner has shot down a heavy transport plane trying to land in Voronezh. Hundreds of Russian military deaths.

Is this secure knowledge? Haven't seen anything about it so far.

[Toth]

2 minutes ago, The Wondering Wolf said:

Is this secure knowledge? Haven't seen anything about it so far.

Could be this AN-26:

 

Haven't heard anything about confirmed losses either. Could still be "just" used for transporting equipment.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

20 minutes ago, Toth said:

Eh, that's unfair, the mercenaries in Anabasis just wanted to get home while stuck in enemy territory. In terms of motivation, this is really a literal crossing of the Rubicon. This is Caesar marching on Rome after the Senate ordered him to disband his army and stand trial for unlawfully waging war in Gaul and Caesar being "Nah, I'm coming home alright, but with my army!"

I disagree that it is “totally unfair” this still seems like a variation.  But Caesar crossing the Rubicon has appeal too.  That said Rome was still, nominally, a Republic when Caesar did that.  Russia is not that.