The Ukraine War: Casus Belgorod

[Werthead]

Some indications that Pyatykhatky may have been retaken by Ukraine. That's at the western end of the line near the Dnipro and the nuclear plant. Impressive, if true, that defensive line is very heavily protected and much more formidable than where the Ukrainians have been having their biggest success.

There's some indications that Russia has moved formations to the Bakhmut sector, feeling that Bakhmut being retaken (not that it's even 100% fallen, but whatever) would be a massive propaganda blow to the Russian war narrative.

At the same time they're doing that, heavier Ukrainian formations have been seen near the areas they've had the most success in the last week, suggesting they are mobilising to punch through towards Mariupol and Berdyansk. If that's the main thrust of the counter-offensive, it'd be a huge operation but one within Ukraine's current operational capabilities. If they do that, they'll have to bring down the Kerch Straits bridge, blocking off the entire SW front from receiving resupply (Russia could try to resupply by sea, but that's a huge operation they're not well set-up for at the moment). If Ukraine feels it can attack even across the flooded Dnipro mouth, that puts that Russian sector under immense strain, and could certainly spark mass panic with Russian civilians trying to flee Crimea in unworkable numbers. They'd effectively be trapped, aside from what Russian ships could lift them over the Kerch Straits.

Still a bit optimistic, though. The Ukrainians need to reach main Russian defensive line and then breach it. Once they've done that - and that's not a small order - there's not much behind the lines to stop them.

[Derfel Cadarn]

Horrific

 

[Which Tyler]

Full article: https://archive.is/P9krt

[Werthead]

Absolutely massive explosion in Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast.

A major ammo dump was blown sky high. Some indications it took out an ammo resupply train whilst it was pulled up alongside, and devastated the tracks in either direction.

 

[Wilbur]

It looks like maybe it was a munitions train that happened to be near a grain silo, based on this pictures in this thread.

That's a combustible combination, just add Storm Shadows.

[Maithanet]

The strategy with the kerch bridge is interesting.  Some people think that Ukraine should try and drop it, because it would make holding crimea much harder.  Other people say they shouldn't do it, because it would make leaving crimea much harder.  Regardless, damaging a big bridge like that to the extent that it cannot be used is not easy. The Ukrainians were able to do it on the Antonovsky bridge in kherson, but only with a lot of effort, and that bridge was dramatically closer to the front lines.  

[SeanF]

17 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

The strategy with the kerch bridge is interesting.  Some people think that Ukraine should try and drop it, because it would make holding crimea much harder.  Other people say they shouldn't do it, because it would make leaving crimea much harder.  Regardless, damaging a big bridge like that to the extent that it cannot be used is not easy. The Ukrainians were able to do it on the Antonovsky bridge in kherson, but only with a lot of effort, and that bridge was dramatically closer to the front lines.  

IMHO one should always leave a line of retreat.

[Corvinus85]

3 hours ago, SeanF said:

IMHO one should always leave a line of retreat.

The Russians have ships. They can retreat by sea.

[Makk]

3 hours ago, Maithanet said:

The strategy with the kerch bridge is interesting.  Some people think that Ukraine should try and drop it, because it would make holding crimea much harder.  Other people say they shouldn't do it, because it would make leaving crimea much harder.  Regardless, damaging a big bridge like that to the extent that it cannot be used is not easy. The Ukrainians were able to do it on the Antonovsky bridge in kherson, but only with a lot of effort, and that bridge was dramatically closer to the front lines.  

Depends whether they try to Storm or Siege it. I could buy the argument it may be advantageous if they go in with everything in a blitz. But assuming they do take their time and do it systematically then they should definitely be destroying it (if they can) to make all the attrition count more.

[Werthead]

Amazing what you can accomplish with just slightly longer-range weaponry.

This was almost certainly hit by British-supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles.

Russian units around Kreminna, Lyman and Kupyansk have reportedly undertaken a counter-counter offensive, designed to relieve pressure elsewhere on the line. Unclear how effective this will be.

[Derfel Cadarn]

CW: Russians getting shot

Footage of Ukr special forces storming a Russian trench.

https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1670675546416586755?s=46&t=YQ5EoXBFy9mUDmV3PkLqIg

Edited June 19, 2023 by Derfel Cadarn

[Werthead]

16 minutes ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

Footage of Ukr special forces storming a Russian trench.

https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1670675546416586755?s=46&t=YQ5EoXBFy9mUDmV3PkLqIg

Probably a content warning might be a good idea there.

[Derfel Cadarn]

26 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Probably a content warning might be a good idea there.

Now added. Though I assumed the description was cw enough, unless R/U had decided to resolve thr fight with paint guns

[Wilbur]

Well, it looks like an important open source will no longer operate in the same manner.

 

[Maithanet]

Seems that the Ukrainians have shifted from targeting command posts to targeting ammo dumps with thier best weapons.  There have been several big ones that have gone up on the past few days.  Supplying the troops in Zaporihzhya is much harder than the Donbas, and the supply lines are under increasing pressure.  Could see an ammo shortage impacting the fighting soon.

Edited June 20, 2023 by Maithanet

[Werthead]

Very desperate Russian tactics around Marinka, where they've been rolling trucks filled with IEDs towards Ukrainian lines. The Ukrainians have been blowing them up rather easily, but the Russians seem to be out of better ideas or hardware in that area.

7 hours ago, Maithanet said:

Seems that the Ukrainians have shifted from targeting command posts to targeting ammo dumps with thier best weapons.  There have been several big ones that have gone up on the past few days.  Supplying the troops in Zaporihzhya is much harder than the Donbas, and the supply lines are under increasing pressure.  Could see an ammo shortage impacting the fighting soon.

The arrival of Storm Shadow and (rumoured) GLDSB means that they can hit Russian arms depots that were deliberately moved further out of range of HIMARS. And once ATACMS come in, they'll have to move further back still. At a certain point, they'll be so far back and the intervening roads under so much loitering munition fire that supplying the front will become untenable.

Edited June 20, 2023 by Werthead

[Maithanet]

24 minutes ago, Werthead said:

The arrival of Storm Shadow and (rumoured) GLDSB means that they can hit Russian arms depots that were deliberately moved further out of range of HIMARS. And once ATACMS come in, they'll have to move further back still. At a certain point, they'll be so far back and the intervening roads under so much loitering munition fire that supplying the front will become untenable.

In many ways the Russians selected the Donbas as the location of their '22 summer offensive (and their '23 winter offensive) the same way the Germans selected Verdun in WW1 - it is the location on the front that is very easily supplied by rail, the supply lines are less favorable for the enemy, and this can further increase the advantage in local artillery.

The supply lines in Zaporihzhya are not like that, and already fairly tenuous.  The further Ukraine advances, the more pressure they can put on Russian supplies, and if they can cut the main rail line then the supply situation will get dramatically worse for all of occupied Zaporihzhya, Kherson and Crimea oblasts. 

We are already hearing reports that the Ukrainians are near artillery parity on much of the front, which is great news because most Ukrainian artillery is much more accurate thanks to drone spotting, better crews and newer barrels.  Massed artillery superiority is probably the biggest pillar of Russian military strength in this war.  If that cannot be relied upon (even locally) then it becomes mostly just a matter of time before a breakthrough is achieved.  Although there will still be a steep cost to storm and break those prepared Russian lines. 

[Corvinus85]

This is the way!

 

[Werthead]

Ukraine has deployed a new, home-developed fixed-wing, higher-speed UAV "bomber". The impressive thing about this model is its high accuracy despite delivering relatively small munitions against small targets at speed.

Ukraine has been testing them against Russian positions along the Dnipro.

Interesting commentary by a Russian milblogger:

The Russians are taking very heavy losses in this offensive but we're not seeing the losses that Ukraine is taking. Ukraine's losses may become unsustainable and the offensive culminates without a major breakthrough; or Russia's losses might become unsustainable in one sector, resulting in a serious breakthrough and major strategic gain for Ukraine.

One interesting comment floating around is how they expected to see much more Russian conscripts fighting, but actual Russian military units seem to be suffering attrition or going into action already, rather than on the third line of trenches. The conscripts may be in other sectors or Russia sustained such heavy losses they pulled them out for regeneration.

[Maithanet]

I'm sure that the Ukrainians are taking casualties, but one thing we do know is that most of the new brigades formed with western equipment have not been deployed yet.  Many are still training.  So the culmination point for Ukraine is probably still a long ways off.