US Politics: Shutdown Showdown

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

57 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Since I seem to be digging deep into corny cliches, yes, but there are more of us than there are of them. 

So? We're getting closer and closer to half the country living in eight states. 

Quote

b/c they’re willing to break the rules and play dirty. 

Right, that's part of the fascist playbook and too many people think it can't happen here despite all the evidence otherwise.

34 minutes ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

Social media helps it spread, and an airtight scaremongering media bubble helped it spread on the right even before then, but I agree the problem is incipient fascism on the right. But it's mostly even now a problem of the base. Most politicians would go back to politics as usual if the incentives were there. And it will take a while for the fascists to learn their lesson, with some of them never learning it, but once MAGA becomes a political dead end, they will be forced back into the reality of persuasive politics.

Logically speaking MAGA should already be a dead end. That's a large part of the problem. General failure in last few elections hasn't caused the right to move back to a more normal position and disorganization on the left could easily lead to an aggressive minority taking over and when the latter is pretty open about their fascist intentions we should all be alarmed. 

38 minutes ago, Guy Kilmore said:

Nah, things wax and wane.  You're too young to be this cynical.  And post too much to believe that.  And too smart to fall for the powers that want you to believe that. 

I think if you're not cynical about the future you're trying to hide from the most likely outcomes. 

[Phylum of Alexandria]

39 minutes ago, Guy Kilmore said:

Nah, things wax and wane.  You're too young to be this cynical.  And post too much to believe that.  And too smart to fall for the powers that want you to believe that. 

It's because GRRM is only 2/3 of the way through his grim and challenging series. We need the final parts to show us the light that endures throughout the darkness.

So...get to it, George. Let's say June 2024.

[Phylum of Alexandria]

2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Logically speaking MAGA should already be a dead end. That's a large part of the problem. General failure in last few elections hasn't caused the right to move back to a more normal position and disorganization on the left could easily lead to an aggressive minority taking over and when the latter is pretty open about their fascist intentions we should all be alarmed. 

Logically speaking yes, but we need to hammer it into their thick skulls some more until the lesson actually registers. They think they can hold out for a bit more and then score big on their will to power. We need to make them lose hope.

[Guy Kilmore]

7 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

So? We're getting closer and closer to half the country living in eight states. 

Right, that's part of the fascist playbook and too many people think it can't happen here despite all the evidence otherwise.

Logically speaking MAGA should already be a dead end. That's a large part of the problem. General failure in last few elections hasn't caused the right to move back to a more normal position and disorganization on the left could easily lead to an aggressive minority taking over and when the latter is pretty open about their fascist intentions we should all be alarmed. 

I think if you're not cynical about the future you're trying to hide from the most likely outcomes. 

On phone, just replying to the last bit, can't delete the best I think you know me well enough and what I do too know that that is highly unlikely.

[ThinkerX]

3 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

I feel like im watching a slomo trainwreck with 81 y.o. Biden being forced on us as the only alternative to the criminal Trump.

Polling is showing Americans do not want either of these long past thier prime options, yet its becoming clear we will have no other viable choice come next November.

I will not be voting for either shitty choice, sorry just not going to give either option a seal of approval. As much as i despise Republicans, if I even feel this way, im certain there are tens of millions other disaffected moderates, dems and especially younger voters.

This is going to be a historically blunderous dice roll if the Dems think voters are going give them a pass and show up despite crystal clear evidence we dont want this as our choice.

Biden needs to give his LBJ speech, like yesterday.

Not so much a vote for Biden as it is a test of Harris's ability to be POTUS when the time comes.

As to Trump...he is literally a walking billboard for a major 'cardiac event.'

[Phylum of Alexandria]

2 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

As to Trump...he is literally a walking billboard for a major 'cardiac event.'

My grandmother chainsmoked every day of her life but lived into her 80s. Like Trump, she was an evil person, and the hate kept her going.

[Kalbear]

19 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

I wholeheartedly disagree here. I think it may seem that way at times and in certain places, but I doubt it is true.

I guess it very much depends on what you mean by them and us, but in general the amount of fairly die-hard conservatives in the US who will go with authoritarianism is about 25%, and conservatives are 35%. The amount of self-identifying liberals is about 25%.

19 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Maybe, but the point is, the majority in this group will be impacted by many things like cuts in social services, to use one example.

Life as they know it not changing too much is probably something that will be more important to older people. There are several surveys out there showing that younger millenials and zoomers are significantly more progressive than even older millenials and gen xers. 

The majority of that group won't be heavily impacted by cuts in social services. They might have some cuts, but it won't be a really painful one. Plus, honestly, that's not what Trumpists are running on. That's what a lot of conservatives would like to do but chances are they won't do it - and that isn't the scary policy anyway. What I'm talking about is gunning down people trying to cross the border, or making sure that black people stay in jail or get killed by cops, or people in poorer communities get poisoned by the environment. For most Trump voters those aren't things that really impact them. 

And the one thing that would impact them heavily - climate change - has been so artfully spun that they are almost certainly not going to be mad at conservatives about it. 

19 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

I'm willing to bet that a good chunk of the diehard Trumpers don't have that many nice things, so it's probably more about not being on the absolute bottom of the socio-economic totem pole. Good government can deal w/ that. It probably won't work in 100% of the people, but it will work on many.  

Repeating something we've said many many times - the average Trump supporter is fairly well-off. The idea that Trump people are poor is something that a lot of very liberal people wish were true but it isn't. 

And here's the cynical part - the 'good government' thing cannot reasonably happen in the US any more. Conservatives get rewarded for having bad government and have all the incentives to make sure that they tie down any and all attempts to make government useful. And thanks to a lot of things about the US political system that isn't going to go away. 

19 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

The immigration issue is slightly different, and a lot of it has a lot to do w/ the fucked up media and several conspiracy theories and dog whistles like the great replacement theory and things like that. The right wing media has been fanning the flames of this stuff for years. This is also something that good government can help with and, from what I hear, the US needs a comprehensive immigration reform. That can't happen unless politicians who are willing to tackle it have majorities in both houses of Congress + the WH. 

Good luck with that!

19 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

They offer fear, which is a horrible emotion to feel, and then they manipulate people and transform this fear into anger and hatred, b/c the latter makes people feel more in charge. Humanity has been through this type of thing before, sadly. But again, I don't believe this is something that you can't bring people back from, except for a minority that are just too far gone. 

Not saying it's easy or quick, only that it can be done

Historically the main way that countries come back from this is from actual revolutions or wars. There are very, VERY few instances where a country goes authoritarian and goes back to a democracy or something like it without massive external pressure. And even with revolutions chances are good you just swing the other way on the political spectrum. 

19 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

It's not about abortion exclusively, it's about losing one's rights. IMO.

Yeah, that doesn't appear to be the case - losing rights doesn't appear to be a major winner. Losing abortion rights does. 

[Kalbear]

4 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

I feel like im watching a slomo trainwreck with 81 y.o. Biden being forced on us as the only alternative to the criminal Trump.

Polling is showing Americans do not want either of these long past thier prime options, yet its becoming clear we will have no other viable choice come next November.

I will not be voting for either shitty choice, sorry just not going to give either option a seal of approval. As much as i despise Republicans, if I even feel this way, im certain there are tens of millions other disaffected moderates, dems and especially younger voters.

This is going to be a historically blunderous dice roll if the Dems think voters are going give them a pass and show up despite crystal clear evidence we dont want this as our choice.

Biden needs to give his LBJ speech, like yesterday.

https://mstdn.social/@lowqualityfacts/111303553779385435

 

[kissdbyfire]

1 hour ago, Kalbear said:

Yeah, that doesn't appear to be the case - losing rights doesn't appear to be a major winner. Losing abortion rights does. 

Sorry, I hate typing on my phone so a proper reply will have to wait. 

But I did want to comment on this bit here quickly. 

Just to stay within the realm of  reproductive rights, I bet a whole lot of "pro-life" (yes, quotation marks b/c fuck these people for using the tactics of coopting words like pro-life, patriotic, etc) women will be mightily pissed off when they can't buy contraceptives anymore. 

[ThinkerX]

1 hour ago, Kalbear said:

Repeating something we've said many many times - the average Trump supporter is fairly well-off. The idea that Trump people are poor is something that a lot of very liberal people wish were true but it isn't. 

And here's the cynical part - the 'good government' thing cannot reasonably happen in the US any more. Conservatives get rewarded for having bad government and have all the incentives to make sure that they tie down any and all attempts to make government useful. And thanks to a lot of things about the US political system that isn't going to go away. 

That is true hereabouts in the now frozen north. Many of my neighbors and much of my family are Trump fans and are firmly in the middle class. They do seem oddly clueless about certain things.

It was a major shock to the one neighbor when I told him about the CHIP act, which received zero coverage in his circles. When I told him about that, he gave it about five seconds of thought and declared it a 'no brainer.' (Compliment and insult both to Biden). That the Infrastructure Act passed at all, and the bulk of the money was actually being spent on, well, needed infrastructure, also baffled him. 

Then there was the guy I walked through step by step about my experiences at USPS as a result of Trump appointing DeJoy to hinder mail in voting. I told him how DeJoy's first edict was to try to cancel overtime - which stopped a *LOT* of mail dead on the road, and about how carriers were forced to leave their routes uncompleted, causing complaints to multiply at a time when the system was already stressed. I told him about having to deal with eight or ten irate phone calls before heading out on the route each morning - 'Where are my pills? Where is my check? They're always here by this time of the month!' As many were Trump supporters, they didn't want to connect the dots. So, I ran all this by the guy. He looks at me and goes - 'Who cares? Nobody uses the mail anymore.'

 

 

[Kalbear]

3 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Sorry, I hate typing on my phone so a proper reply will have to wait. 

But I did want to comment on this bit here quickly. 

Just to stay within the realm of  reproductive rights, I bet a whole lot of "pro-life" (yes, quotation marks b/c fuck these people for using the tactics of coopting words like pro-life, patriotic, etc) women will be mightily pissed off when they can't buy contraceptives anymore. 

Yeah, they will be!

And they'll vote for that via some amendment or bill, and still vote for Trump and his ilk. 

[TrackerNeil]

7 hours ago, horangi said:

Is there a particular issue that has you fed up?  Biden was my third from last choice in 2020 (ahead of Harris and Sanders), but I think he's done a fairly good job given the cards dealt.  Yes, I wish we had someone younger, but frankly 'we' voted him in as the candidate, he wasn't foisted on us. 

I've always felt that concern about Biden's age is a bit irrational. I mean, it's not as if Biden aged ten years since he was elected. Voters in 2020 knew how old he was and a good majority still voted for him. I can't help but think this kind of worry is media-enhanced.

[DireWolfSpirit]

10 hours ago, Altherion said:

Maybe -- the problem is that there is no obvious replacement

Correct there is no clear alternative. This why Biden should put country before his own ego and pass the baton, stand down while theres still enough time for a replacement candidate to establish her/him self.

10 hours ago, horangi said:

Is there a particular issue that has you fed up? 

What grates me quite a bit is that its clear the Democrats are going to run the guy that they know a significant amount of voters are rejecting in the polls. They are going to give the country a choice of- "Look our guy is less shitty."

Thats not acceptable. Biden needs to pass the torch he is a vulnerable candidate, I think he knows hes vulnerable but too attached to the office to make way for a more fit person. That is selfish on his part and the "our guy is less shitty than thier guy" strategy leaves millions feeling the party takes thier vote for granted. A good way to lose votes.

9 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

There's another thing you should ask yourself: are you prepared to live w/ the consequences of

It sure looks like the DNC is willing to gamble with these consequences. This is the time to hammer into the Presidents head that he needs to give up a 2nd term for the good of the country. Make way for a candidate that motivates voters to turn out and a candidate that actually has voters saying "I want this person as my next President."

Instead of "heres our guy, hes the least worst option."

The thing is the upper echelon DNC types know this is exactly what they are offering us and I just dont see it as a viable get out the vote strategy. It looks like a catastrophe in waiting, this is how we end up with Trump again.

Stand down Mr Biden while theres still time to get a replacement that will motivate turnout.

Any candidate worth thier salt should be up double digits over the criminal Trump. The fact that you cannot even outpoll this disgrace is a call to action to move on from a Biden reelection campaign.

We need a better candidate, this is unacceptable.

Edited November 21, 2023 by DireWolfSpirit

[Phylum of Alexandria]

5 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

Correct there is no clear alternative. This why Biden should put country before his own ego and pass the baton, stand down while theres still enough time for a replacement candidate to establish her/him self.

Maybe this podcast conversation on those polls will make you feel just a tiny bit better, or at least accept that either option (Biden goes vs Biden runs) is rife with risks, and there is no "safe" option. I also enjoyed the conversation because the guest actually talks about polls intelligently rather than the typical horse race BS that's everywhere.

Accepting that every option we might have is risky is not exactly comforting, but perhaps you'll feel more like a beleaguered hero in an existential hero's narrative steeling themself for an unknown moment of truth rather than someone being forced face first into a pit of sinking sand.

Barring his death or some other unforeseen event, Biden will be the option we have to work with, so it's best to steel ourselves, do our absolute best with that option, and hope for the best.

[kissdbyfire]

14 hours ago, Kalbear said:

I guess it very much depends on what you mean by them and us, but in general the amount of fairly die-hard conservatives in the US who will go with authoritarianism is about 25%, and conservatives are 35%. The amount of self-identifying liberals is about 25%.

I was talking about people who don’t want to live in a fascist state, regardless of whether they’re conservatives or liberals or whatever. Like the guy I mentioned here a couple of weeks back. Older man, late 60s-early 70s, voted for Trump twice, identifies as very conservative, doesn’t like the dems and specifically doesn’t like Biden on top of thinking he’s too old to run. When the person conducting the focus group asked him who he’d vote for if the next election is a Biden/Trump rematch, he said he’d vote for Biden even if he were dead. I think there are more people like this man out there…

Irt 25% of people being fine with authoritarianism, that’s definitely a lot but still not enough?

14 hours ago, Kalbear said:

The majority of that group won't be heavily impacted by cuts in social services. They might have some cuts, but it won't be a really painful one. Plus, honestly, that's not what Trumpists are running on. That's what a lot of conservatives would like to do but chances are they won't do it - and that isn't the scary policy anyway. What I'm talking about is gunning down people trying to cross the border, or making sure that black people stay in jail or get killed by cops, or people in poorer communities get poisoned by the environment. For most Trump voters those aren't things that really impact them. 
 

Yeah, it’s all very scary. I suppose I like to think there are some magas who would not be willing to cross certain lines regarding these blatantly horrific policies, but maybe I’m just being irrationally optimistic about this. In 2015 I was dead certain Trump wouldn’t win, despite what everyone was telling me. 

14 hours ago, Kalbear said:

And the one thing that would impact them heavily - climate change - has been so artfully spun that they are almost certainly not going to be mad at conservatives about it. 
 

Agree.

14 hours ago, Kalbear said:

Repeating something we've said many many times - the average Trump supporter is fairly well-off. The idea that Trump people are poor is something that a lot of very liberal people wish were true but it isn't. 
 

Fair enough. Though now I’m curious whether by “fairly well-off” we’re talking middle class and not really well-off no money concerns whatsoever? 

14 hours ago, Kalbear said:

And here's the cynical part - the 'good government' thing cannot reasonably happen in the US any more. Conservatives get rewarded for having bad government and have all the incentives to make sure that they tie down any and all attempts to make government useful. And thanks to a lot of things about the US political system that isn't going to go away. 
 

Is this really accurate? I mean, you do have democrats being elected and re-elected governors in red states, and democrats winning seats in state legislatures, in some cases even historically flipping state houses or senates or even both. Isn’t that a positive sign? 

 

14 hours ago, Kalbear said:

Good luck with that!

Are you saying it’s undoable? Genuine question…

At any rate I suppose I should be the one wishing you good luck! 

14 hours ago, Kalbear said:

Historically the main way that countries come back from this is from actual revolutions or wars. There are very, VERY few instances where a country goes authoritarian and goes back to a democracy or something like it without massive external pressure. And even with revolutions chances are good you just swing the other way on the political spectrum. 

It's not as hopeless as that, according to professor Staffan Ingemar Lindberg from the  University of Gothenburg. He acknowledges that the world is becoming increasingly authoritarian, but says there is hope. And if several poorer and less powerful countries were able to bounce back from the brink, I don’t see why America can’t. 

Quote

The fact that eight democracies that were in a period of autocratization have stopped that process and “bounced back” is uplifting news for democracy. It is rare to see countries that can make a U-turn. The countries that have succeeded in doing have brought about a pro-democracy mobilization, they have re-established an objective judicial system, deposed authoritarian leaders, introduced free and fair elections, worked to reduce corruption, and rejuvenated civil society”, says Staffan I. Lindberg.

 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

44 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

I was talking about people who don’t want to live in a fascist state, regardless of whether they’re conservatives or liberals or whatever. Like the guy I mentioned here a couple of weeks back. Older man, late 60s-early 70s, voted for Trump twice, identifies as very conservative, doesn’t like the dems and specifically doesn’t like Biden on top of thinking he’s too old to run. When the person conducting the focus group asked him who he’d vote for if the next election is a Biden/Trump rematch, he said he’d vote for Biden even if he were dead. I think there are more people like this man out there…

Irt 25% of people being fine with authoritarianism, that’s definitely a lot but still not enough?

Yeah, it’s all very scary. I suppose I like to think there are some magas who would not be willing to cross certain lines regarding these blatantly horrific policies, but maybe I’m just being irrationally optimistic about this. In 2015 I was dead certain Trump wouldn’t win, despite what everyone was telling me. 

Agree.

Fair enough. Though now I’m curious whether by “fairly well-off” we’re talking middle class and not really well-off no money concerns whatsoever? 

Is this really accurate? I mean, you do have democrats being elected and re-elected governors in red states, and democrats winning seats in state legislatures, in some cases even historically flipping state houses or senates or even both. Isn’t that a positive sign? 

 

Are you saying it’s undoable? Genuine question…

At any rate I suppose I should be the one wishing you good luck! 

It's not as hopeless as that, according to professor Staffan Ingemar Lindberg from the  University of Gothenburg. He acknowledges that the world is becoming increasingly authoritarian, but says there is hope. And if several poorer and less powerful countries were able to bounce back from the brink, I don’t see why America can’t. 

 

I think polling is less accurate than it once was… but… we should work to get out the vote as though this was the last election we will ever have… because that is a possibility.

[Phylum of Alexandria]

45 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

It's not as hopeless as that, according to professor Staffan Ingemar Lindberg from the  University of Gothenburg. He acknowledges that the world is becoming increasingly authoritarian, but says there is hope. And if several poorer and less powerful countries were able to bounce back from the brink, I don’t see why America can’t. 

If Trump wins in 2024, it probably would take a war or revolution to fight against the changes he would impose. But yes, at this point, there is still a chance to correct. It's a long slog and it's not fun (and actually implementing good liberal or progressive policies is a completely different matter), but there have been heartening signs. We should not allow ourselves to be defeated by our own sense of defeatism.

[Fez]

15 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Logically speaking MAGA should already be a dead end. That's a large part of the problem. General failure in last few elections hasn't caused the right to move back to a more normal position. 

I disagree. The problem is that Republicans are still in an excellent position to takeover, and hold significant amounts of power as is; especially at the state level. I do think this is despite MAGA, not because of it. But the harms of MAGA to their political aims hasn't been enough to make them risk pissing off their base yet.

The only way I see MAGA starting to break is if Biden wins re-election AND the 2026 midterm resembles the 2022 midterm (especially if Democrats have the senate after 2026, and there are a few decent pick-up opportunities there). I think that, and pretty much only that, would lead to a 2028 Republican primary where MAGA starts getting ditched.

And the problem is, that's a really tall order. Even if Biden wins, I think there's a very strong chance that 2026 is a more regular midterm incumbent bloodbath.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

26 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Irt 25% of people being fine with authoritarianism, that’s definitely a lot but still not enough

In the wrong cycle with a few clueless idiots siding with them it can be. 

[kissdbyfire]

16 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I think polling is less accurate than it once was… but… we should work to get out the vote as though this was the last election we will ever have… because that is a possibility.

This x 1,000. What leaves me scratching my head is that there are people who recognise the risk but are still willing to roll the dice, as in, not voting at all or voting for West or RFK or whoever. Hopefully between now and November 2024 Trump will continue to make disgusting and unhinged statements and that will push people who are still balking at a second Biden presidency into action.

13 minutes ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

If Trump wins in 2024, it probably would take a war or revolution to fight against the changes he would impose.
 

Probably true, and that alone should scare most everyone shitless. 

13 minutes ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

But yes, at this point, there is still a chance to correct. It's a long slog and it's not fun (and actually implementing good liberal or progressive policies is a completely different matter), but there have been heartening signs. We should not allow ourselves to be defeated by our own sense of defeatism.

Yes, that’s my looking-from-the-outside impression as well. 

8 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

In the wrong cycle with a few clueless idiots siding with them it can be. 

Wouldn’t it take more than a few idiots and wouldn’t it depend on this happening in specific states? I’m asking b/c I honestly don’t know. Like, wouldn’t it require this group of MAGAs + idiots managing to win a few states w/ lots of electors?