US Politics: Shutdown Showdown

[Maithanet]

5 minutes ago, Mindwalker said:

 And I think we can assume his second candidacy might not even have occurred if he had not feared legal actiions.

Strange, I actually think the reverse is more true.  Garland seemed satisfied not to prosecute Trump, but once he declared himself a candidate for President, he appointed Jack Smith, who actually wants to enforce the law.  Trump still would have had the Georgia and New York cases, but those are significantly less threatening. 

[Altherion]

14 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Rep. Talib has been censured. I'm surprised 22 Democrats voted with Republicans to do so.  

At least now we've learned that the lower limit of what it takes to get a mildly bipartisan reprimand in today's House is calling for the complete destruction of an allied country.

[Mindwalker]

Garland, yes. (But Trump didn't necessarily know it or rely on it.) Iow, both may be true.

Edited November 8, 2023 by Mindwalker

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

40 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Because empowering the man who wants to ban Islamic immigration to the US and lord knows what else to Muslim Americans… that’s a good plan?

Upwards of 1% of the population of Gaza killed in 1 month. 'Actual number might be higher, and this thing is still going. For someone who felt genuine solidarity with the people in Gaza, maybe has friends or family there, How convincing do you think, "Please don't burn it down" is?

Besides, they can still vote in the down-ticket races.

[Zorral]

Wonkette headline: "Joe Biden Refuses to Resign after Democrats' Humiliating Night of Wins. "

[TrackerNeil]

41 minutes ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

Gotta love how the GOP respects the will of the people:

 

At least, though, Huffman is acknowledging that the will of the voters matters in some way here. I would have expected him to champion a bunch of TRAP laws, to make this legal procedure practically unavailable. And maybe we'll still see those.

[Zorral]

4 minutes ago, TrackerNeil said:

 I would have expected him to champion a bunch of TRAP laws, to make this legal procedure practically unavailable. And maybe we'll still see those.

Don't concern yourself.  Seeing coverage of many of the fascist ilks today bemoaning that the Constitution doesn't provide enough means to overturn elections, which is why the Constitution must be scrapped.

 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

38 minutes ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

Upwards of 1% of the population of Gaza killed in 1 month. 'Actual number might be higher, and this thing is still going. For someone who felt genuine solidarity with the people in Gaza, maybe has friends or family there, How convincing do you think, "Please don't burn it down" is?

Besides, they can still vote in the down-ticket races.

Because… empowering… the… man… who… wants… to… ban… Islamic… immigration… to … the… US… and… lord… knows… what… else… to… Muslim… Americans… that’s a good plan?

What do they think Trump will do regarding Israel and Gaza?

Edited November 8, 2023 by Ser Scot A Ellison

[Phylum of Alexandria]

1 minute ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Because… empowering… the… man… who… wants… to… ban… Islamic… immigration… to … the… US… and… lord… knows… what… else… to… Muslim… Americans… that’s a good plan?

Yeah, it's not "burning it down" so much as bring in a government that would double or triple down on the things you don't like, not to mention tag you as a target.

[Ser Reptitious]

1 minute ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Because… empowering… the… man… who… wants… to… ban… Islamic… immigration… to … the… US… and… lord… knows… what… else… to… Muslim… Americans… that’s a good plan?

What do they think Trump will do regarding Israel and Gaza?

Cut off your nose to spite your face. 

That said, I can understand that people frustrated with, say, the situation in Gaza wish to use vocally the threat to withhold their vote as the only way they can exercise at least some leverage. Once the rubber hits the road in November 2024 though...

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

7 minutes ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

Yeah, it's not "burning it down" so much as bring in a government that would double or triple down on the things you don't like, not to mention tag you as a target.

Precisely 

[TrackerNeil]

You know, Ohio Republican legislators should look on Issue 1 as a positive, because it gets them off the hook vis a vis anti-abortion legislation. "You know, I'd love to ban abortion after six weeks, but the state constitution and all." 

Issue 1 is like a mini-Roe, that lets the cup pass from them.

[Ormond]

3 hours ago, Maithanet said:

It is absolutely true that Trump has been able to engage a certain segment of voters to turn out for him when he's on the ballot, but they haven't showed up in sufficient numbers in basically every other election since 2016.  2021 is the only exception to that, and that was before Roe got overturned. 

To add another point to that -- I just saw an MSNBC clip on YouTube where Steve Kornacki said there was an exit poll of yesterday's Ohio voters which found that of those that said they voted in the 2020 Presidential election, 2% more voted for Biden than for Trump. That's in a state where the actual 2020 vote was Trump 53.27% vs. Biden 45.24%. So though exit polls probably aren't quite as accurate as some other polling, it does seem that a whole lot more Trump voters in Ohio didn't show up yesterday than was the case for Biden voters. 

[Maithanet]

5 minutes ago, Ormond said:

To add another point to that -- I just saw an MSNBC clip on YouTube where Steve Kornacki said there was an exit poll of yesterday's Ohio voters which found that of those that said they voted in the 2020 Presidential election, 2% more voted for Biden than for Trump. That's in a state where the actual 2020 vote was Trump 53.27% vs. Biden 45.24%. So though exit polls probably aren't quite as accurate as some other polling, it does seem that a whole lot more Trump voters in Ohio didn't show up yesterday than was the case for Biden voters. 

It's possible, but I think it's just as likely that the kind of Ohio voter willing to take an exit poll is more likely to support Biden. 

In general I have a very low opinion of those kind of exit polls. 

[Kalbear]

20 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Because… empowering… the… man… who… wants… to… ban… Islamic… immigration… to … the… US… and… lord… knows… what… else… to… Muslim… Americans… that’s a good plan?

What do they think Trump will do regarding Israel and Gaza?

They're not going to vote for Trump either. They'll vote for RFK Jr. or whatever the next Jill Stein is, and they'll say that at least THEY didn't vote for someone who doesn't share their morals and they can feel okay knowing they didn't support that. They'll say that voting for the lesser evil is still evil, and it's better for them to not do that. 

Note that most of those people aren't going to be very impacted by this policy or by Israel killing a lot of people so it's real easy for them to take the high ground here. 

But again, you know all of this, as this was the same set of arguments you used at the time, too. 

[Zorral]

"This isn't the end": Top Ohio Republican vows effort to undo abortion amendment backed by voters
"It is really just the beginning of a revolving door of ballot campaigns to repeal or replace Issue 1," GOPer says

https://www.salon.com/2023/11/08/this-isnt-the-end-top-ohio-vows-effort-to-undo-abortion-amendment-backed-by/?

Voters aren't fooled by Republican lies on abortion — and Democrats are benefiting at the ballot box
In Ohio, Kentucky, and Virginia, polls showed Americans will turn out to protect reproductive rights

https://www.salon.com/2023/11/08/arent-fooled-by-lies-on-abortion--and-democrats-are-benefiting-at-the-ballot-box/

This reminds me of the period of RvW up at SCOTUS, and some guys here in the US Politics thread, wanting the talk of abortion shut down because abortion wasn't "politics."  

There is nothing that isn't politics now.  Shoot, that was true then and long before.  At least in this country.

 

Edited November 8, 2023 by Zorral

[Phylum of Alexandria]

10 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

They're not going to vote for Trump either. They'll vote for RFK Jr. or whatever the next Jill Stein is, and they'll say that at least THEY didn't vote for someone who doesn't share their morals and they can feel okay knowing they didn't support that. They'll say that voting for the lesser evil is still evil, and it's better for them to not do that. 

Note that most of those people aren't going to be very impacted by this policy or by Israel killing a lot of people so it's real easy for them to take the high ground here. 

But again, you know all of this, as this was the same set of arguments you used at the time, too. 

I do recognize that this line of thinking can exist, even after 4 years of Trump (in Scot's defense, a lot of factors remained untested and unknown in 2016. That is no longer the case). It's for that reason that I'm making a career in Canada a viable option should it come to that. Grief and anger can take you down some dark paths, but if people truly want to burn the country down because of it, I want to make sure that I won't be trapped in the ashes.

[Kalbear]

Just now, Phylum of Alexandria said:

I do recognize that this line of thinking can exist, even after 4 years of Trump (in Scot's defense, a lot of factors remained untested and unknown in 2016. That is no longer the case). It's for that reason that I'm making a career in Canada a viable option should it come to that. Grief and anger can take you down some dark paths, but if people truly want to burn the country down because of it, I want to make sure that I won't be trapped in the ashes.

For some people it's more important that they stick true to their moral code and don't do something directly to contribute to something bad, even if it means their inaction or ineffective action will result in something significantly worse. It sucks, but that's humans for you. 

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

45 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Because… empowering… the… man… who… wants… to… ban… Islamic… immigration… to … the… US… and… lord… knows… what… else… to… Muslim… Americans… that’s a good plan?

What do they think Trump will do regarding Israel and Gaza?

Oh, I understand the argument. This is serious business. And all those ellipses. Breathtaking. 

So Joe better get his sleepy ass in gear and do something about it. 

[Phylum of Alexandria]

1 minute ago, Kalbear said:

For some people it's more important that they stick true to their moral code and don't do something directly to contribute to something bad, even if it means their inaction or ineffective action will result in something significantly worse. It sucks, but that's humans for you.

I understand the rationale, though I disagree with its assumptions. If a person doesn't feel some major guilt in their inaction, then they're not thinking about it very seriously. Not that that was your point. I agree that it's a common way of thinking, something to factor in no matter what we think of it.