Ukraine War: incompetence vs fecklessness

[Kalbear]

9 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I'm fairly sure polishgenius is being sarcastic, and is mocking the idea that we can be cavalier about invading Russian cities. 

Look, I've talked with him a lot and @polishgenius has more experience playing Hearts of Iron IV than Putin or Zelensky. He knows what he's talking about. Let him cook. 

[Werthead]

21 minutes ago, Corvinus85 said:

Napoleon took Moscow and got him nothing. The Nazis besieged it and got nothing. And with crazy dreaming-of-the-glory-days Putin in charge, it would be another history repeat. The guy would nuke Moscow if it fell in enemy hands.

Well, to be fair the Russians knew the French could not hold Moscow for more than a few weeks in the approach of winter. And the Nazis did not besiege Moscow, they barely managed to get a foot in the door and made a last mad dash to get troops in the city before winter killed their advance, but there's no way they could have taken it in that moment (Stalin knew that their momentum was running out and there were substantial reinforcements approaching from the east, which is why he stayed, not because he had balls of steel and all the rest of it).

[Toth]

Let's be serious, any Ukrainian force taking Moscow would stand before the exact same problem Prigozhin faced: Putin would just piss off to St. Petersburg and continue the war from there.

[Bironic]

2 hours ago, Kalbear said:

Look, I've talked with him a lot and @polishgenius has more experience playing Hearts of Iron IV than Putin or Zelensky. He knows what he's talking about. Let him cook. 

Well Putin doesn't use the internet apparently so he probably still plays with tin soldiers

and more sadly with real ones...

[The Dragon Demands]

Seeing a lot of images on social media this week that Ukraine’s mud season has begun in earnest. That should pause any advances on the main front until around the start of May - have there been any solid dates predicted for mud season this year?

[3CityApache]

Not sure how credible this is, but saw this reported in our mainstream media.

[Toth]

4 minutes ago, 3CityApache said:

Not sure how credible this is, but saw this reported in our mainstream media.

Since early morning Reddit is flooded by Russian Liberation Army and civilian footage showing gunfights across Kursk and a couple of armored vehicles crossing the border into Belgorod. I doubt they are really there to hold the towns, but they are certainly intending to embarrass Puting just in time for the election.

Meanwhile in Ivanovo a Russian military cargo plane grounded after loosing an engine during the landing and a couple Kamikaze drones struck more refineries across the country.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Kursk is a long way into Russia…

[Werthead]

Yup, pretty large-scale offensive by the Russian paramilitary forces in Belgorod and Kursk regions, accompanied by large drone attacks. Some border villages taken, others contested. Likely trying to be an embarrassment during the elections, so expect more of this over the week.

An IL-76 and Su-27 reportedly shot down, although the 76 sounds like it might have been a genuine accident (some footage of an engine literally falling off).

Lukoil oil depot in Kstovo, a fuel depot in Oryol destroyed. An oil facility near Moscow attacked but the drone was reportedly shot down.

Another TOS-1A thermobaric missile system destroyed. I think we're coming up on 60% of Russia's entire pre-war reserves of that platform having been eliminated (although "several" new ones have been commissioned since 2022).

2 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Kursk is a long way into Russia…

Kursk is a 3-hour drive from Kharkiv (under normal circumstances, might take longer now), so not really. Kursk Oblast directly borders Ukraine's Kharkiv region.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

15 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Yup, pretty large-scale offensive by the Russian paramilitary forces in Belgorod and Kursk regions, accompanied by large drone attacks. Some border villages taken, others contested. Likely trying to be an embarrassment during the elections, so expect more of this over the week.

An IL-76 and Su-27 reportedly shot down, although the 76 sounds like it might have been a genuine accident (some footage of an engine literally falling off).

Lukoil oil depot in Kstovo, a fuel depot in Oryol destroyed. An oil facility near Moscow attacked but the drone was reportedly shot down.

Another TOS-1A thermobaric missile system destroyed. I think we're coming up on 60% of Russia's entire pre-war reserves of that platform having been eliminated (although "several" new ones have been commissioned since 2022).

Kursk is a 3-hour drive from Kharkiv (under normal circumstances, might take longer now), so not really. Kursk Oblast directly borders Ukraine's Kharkiv region.

It’s quite a bit further than Belogorod.

[Makk]

It's not Kursk city. The incursions are all right next to the border but in three different locations. Just forcing the relocation of troops to stop this is an issue for the Russians although I think it is mainly about the embarrassment and propaganda. Coming just after Navalny's funeral and leading up to the sham elections, this is a good time to be adding to the political instability.

[ThinkerX]

I will refrain from commenting about the cross-border incursions. 

I will note that Team Biden somehow managed to get a 300 million military aid package for Ukraine approved. Not much, but better than nothing.

[Padraig]

This is a good article on views in Europe about Ukraine.

Here is the full article.  Long though.

Probably more pessimistic than I was hoping for but it does play up the (lack of) leadership angle, which is what I have been thinking about.  Here is the conclusion...

Quote

European publics are not feeling particularly heroic. They appear sceptical that Europe’s support alone will be enough to lead to Ukraine’s victory. But they are not inclined to appease Putin either. A plurality of Europeans believe that, in the event of change in the United States’ position, the EU should either maintain or increase its support for Ukraine.

Politicians will not (and should not) design their policies around opinion polls. And it is clear that the EU and member states have an imperative to continue supporting Ukraine. Polls, however, can help to show leaders where things stand with the public, and how politicians can best make the case for the right policies. In this sense, European leaders – who for the last two years have sustained support for Ukraine and who recently adopted a €50 billion aid package for Kyiv – should find our results both sobering and encouraging.

The map of public opinion shows that many people in Europe believe that the war in Ukraine is a European war and that Europeans will be mostly responsible for its outcome.

When the war started, the major clash in Europe was between those who believed that Ukraine should win (the ‘justice camp’) and those who preferred the war to end as quickly as possible, no matter the cost for Ukraine (the ‘peace camp’).

But now a different division may be emerging around the idea of what achieving peace would mean. That is, many Europeans could now see some form of settlement as peace; others may hold onto the idea that the only peace is a Ukraine with its pre-2014 borders reinstated.

This new dichotomy could be due in part to the prospect of Trump’s return, which is already reshaping the choices that European leaders are facing. The danger is that Trump – and Putin, who has hinted that he is open to negotiations – try to portray Ukraine (and its backers) as the ‘forever war’ party while they claim the mantle of ‘peace’. 

It is crucial for Ukraine and its European backers to do all they can to prevent this distortion of the truth. The challenge is to define what being in favour of ‘peace’ means in practice. European leaders could begin by making a distinction between a ‘durable peace’ and ‘peace on Russian terms’. If people see that a Russian victory would involve stopping Kyiv from fulfilling its European aspirations, they can appreciate that this kind of peace would not just be a defeat for Kyiv but one for Europe too. 

This framing of the argument would put Kyiv in a better place to cope with any moves by Trump – or Putin – to change the debate. Many European leaders realise that Ukrainians will struggle to achieve any meaningful settlement from a position of military weakness. And Europeans will only have the moral right to advise Ukraine on its war aims if they have delivered the money and weapons they promised. What is more, meaningful security guarantees from the West and EU integration are likely to be the only way to convince Ukrainian society to accept any territorial sacrifices.

As Europe and the US enter election season, the quest to define peace will thus be a critical battleground in this war. Leaders will need to find a new language that resonates with the current sentiment if they are to maintain public support for Ukraine.

The best way to mitigate against war fatigue will be to define this idea of ‘durable peace’. Russian victory is not peace. And if the price of ending the war is turning Ukraine into a no man’s land, it will be a defeat not only for Kyiv but for Europe as a whole. In the event of negotiations, it is essential for both Ukrainian and Western publics to know what is on the table and what is not. What is not negotiable is Ukraine’s democratic and pro-Western future.

 

[Werthead]

Ryazan Refinery, the third-largest in Russia, took a pounding in the early hours. It's been hit so bad it's apparently lost 70% of its processing capacity. How long for remains to be seen, but the damage appears substantial. 

Novoshakhtinskiy Refinery near Rostov also took some hits, though not as bad. It will be shut down for two days whilst repair inspections take place.

The Russian Volunteer Corps has said it plans to halt attacks on Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts in Ukraine by targeting military bases inside cities in Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts, and has advised civilians evacuate certain areas.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

I don't think this is about embarassing Putin during his sleepwalk to another election victory.

I'd guess this is about to disrupting Russia's momentum by having them divert men and resources to deal with those incursions. Would be great if it works and takes some pressure off the Ukrainian defenders. But no, RLF are not gonna hold any cities. It's about disruption and causing as much damage as possible with their partisan warfare.

[Makk]

54 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

I don't think this is about embarassing Putin during his sleepwalk to another election victory.

I'd guess this is about to disrupting Russia's momentum by having them divert men and resources to deal with those incursions. Would be great if it works and takes some pressure off the Ukrainian defenders. But no, RLF are not gonna hold any cities. It's about disruption and causing as much damage as possible with their partisan warfare.

You could in theory hold these villages though. I'm not sure how good the supply routes are but they are close enough to Ukraine to be supported by artillery and drones. Start building defenses and if Russia wants to use their usual tactics of destroying every building when they take a settlement, it is Russian buildings they are flattening.

[Kalbear]

1 hour ago, Makk said:

You could in theory hold these villages though. I'm not sure how good the supply routes are but they are close enough to Ukraine to be supported by artillery and drones. Start building defenses and if Russia wants to use their usual tactics of destroying every building when they take a settlement, it is Russian buildings they are flattening.

You really can't because of those supply lines. You're basically betting on being able to hold it with whatever you're carrying. And you're dealing with a fixed position that has no built defenses and is cut off from most of whatever cover and firepower you have. 

Raiding might work, but holding? Not likely.

[Makk]

32 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

You really can't because of those supply lines. You're basically betting on being able to hold it with whatever you're carrying. And you're dealing with a fixed position that has no built defenses and is cut off from most of whatever cover and firepower you have. 

Raiding might work, but holding? Not likely.

I think with Nekhoteyevka the supply lines look very good. It's right next to the border, there is a highway running through, and it is far removed from where the Russian forces are currently positioned. There is really very little difference between holding it and holding the border. 

It would normally have zero strategic value, but politically it would probably require putin to focus on it. Yes defenses would have to be built, but you could quickly scatter mines across the roads and mud season might give you the time. 

Would Russians use glide bombs and other aviation on their own village? I really don't think this is unrealistic. If Russia did assemble a massive force quickly you could pull back but I suspect they would try first with a more moderate level. 

[The Anti-Targ]

Quote

Putin said that Moscow is ready to use nuclear weapons in case of a threat to “the existence of the Russian state, our sovereignty and independence”.

I guess the level of threat this poses depends on how Putin defines Russia's existence. If it extends to Crimea and the more recently annexed parts of Ukraine then there is basically no reassurance at all that nukes won't come into play. 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

State of the German Arm's Industry and why Europe is screwed without the US basically.

German defense capabilities if Trump wins the election (for those who think I am being too negative on that front).

Edited March 14 by A Horse Named Stranger