drawkcabi Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Hurricane Sandy is still in the Carribean now, and my hopes and best wishes to everyone around it there, and I know storm paths can change drastically in the amount of time I'm talking about - 5 days - but this is interesting especially since current models predict I could be right in the middle of it.http://xfinity.comcast.net/articles/news-general/20121025/US.SCI.Super.Storm/?cid=hero_mediaModels shows Hurricane Sandy merging with a noreaster and cold arctic air coming in from the north. Some models show it hitting up in New York - Maine area but it's now a 70% chance that the remnants of the hurricane part is heading for Deleware and if it does we've got a good chance for snow at the end of this thing...snowI'm like 10 miles south of Deleware on the Delmarva peninsula.Anyway, I don't want to be an alarmist, I'm not really worried or concerned about this - yet - but kind of fascinated by this storm. Another example of changing and crazy weather patterns due to climate change?Also, this is a heads up, even if it is early, for anyone here in the north-atlantic and northeast regions to at least keep an eye on the weather forecasts, starting now, just to keep it in mind. These things have a way of sneaking up on people when a lot of other things are going on and weather isn't getting much consideration. If this does get real we can use this thread for check ins on everybody in the north-east and mid-atlantic.So Happy Halloween from mother nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inigima Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I saw this this morning too. Stay safe everyone.What are things looking like for non-eastern shore MD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ormond Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I know it's difficult for people on both sides of climate change issues to grasp, but you just can't attribute particular weather events to global warming. There is just enough uncertainty and randomness in the system so that any particular event could theoretically happen whether global temperature rise is a reality or not. So no, neither Sandy nor Katrina nor any other particular hurricane or storm by itself is evidence for climate change (or non-change.)It is fascinating, though, that the number of storms in the Atlantic has been so high the last 15 years. Hurricanes began to be named in 1950. In the Atlantic there are six rotating lists of 21 names in alphabetical order that are assigned to tropical storms as they form. The first "N" storm wasn't named until 1990 and the first "O" storm happened in 1995. 1995 actually went up to "T" which was considered amazing at the time; 2005, the year of Katrina, had 27 named storms, the first year even to go beyond the regular list and have storms named with letters of the Greek alphabet. In addition to Sandy, we now have Tony in the middle of the Atlantic so four of the six lists have now had storms up through the letter "T", and all six of the lists have had "P" storms now, when we never even made it to "O" before 1995. This could have to do with a long term oscillation in the Atlantic that would have happened without global climate change, but it's certainly interesting nonetheless. We have a fairly good chance this year of being only the second year to have a "V" storm. ("U" isn't used in the Atlantic.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atreides Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 We had a little snow in MD last Halloween...but this looks to be a little different. Should be fun interesting times next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisterOJ Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Frankenstorm.This is happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drawkcabi Posted October 25, 2012 Author Share Posted October 25, 2012 Frakenstorm, heh, I like that.I know people are saying there was snow in md last Halloween, but that's how bad my memory has gotten, I don't remember a single thing about Halloween 2011, blank slate. That belongs in the aging thread...I know it's difficult for people on both sides of climate change issues to grasp, but you just can't attribute particular weather events to global warming. There is just enough uncertainty and randomness in the system so that any particular event could theoretically happen whether global temperature rise is a reality or not. So no, neither Sandy nor Katrina nor any other particular hurricane or storm by itself is evidence for climate change (or non-change.)It is fascinating, though, that the number of storms in the Atlantic has been so high the last 15 years. Hurricanes began to be named in 1950. In the Atlantic there are six rotating lists of 21 names in alphabetical order that are assigned to tropical storms as they form. The first "N" storm wasn't named until 1990 and the first "O" storm happened in 1995. 1995 actually went up to "T" which was considered amazing at the time; 2005, the year of Katrina, had 27 named storms, the first year even to go beyond the regular list and have storms named with letters of the Greek alphabet. In addition to Sandy, we now have Tony in the middle of the Atlantic so four of the six lists have now had storms up through the letter "T", and all six of the lists have had "P" storms now, when we never even made it to "O" before 1995. This could have to do with a long term oscillation in the Atlantic that would have happened without global climate change, but it's certainly interesting nonetheless. We have a fairly good chance this year of being only the second year to have a "V" storm. ("U" isn't used in the Atlantic.)Yeah, I find it all very interesting, being on watch or warning with a lot of these storms adds to that interest. Of course it's not near as interesting/bad as it is for gulf coast, Florida, and the Carolinas.I know it's not definitely caused by climate change, that's why the "?" at the end of that sentence. Just thought it was "maybe yes", "maybe no" in the grand scheme of this storm, and a question with no conclusive consensus except that it is questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mack Kilimaro Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I'll just go ahead and expect to lose power for two days, because that's what's happened during every other major weather event around here for the past two years, whether it's hurricane or otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mlle. Zabzie Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 We so had snow last year like two days before Halloween. I got stuck in Chicago (which was warm and sunny, go figure). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the maid of woodlynne Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Frankenstorm was the hot topic at work today. I'm just outside of Philadelphia on the NJ side - we're expected to have gale force winds and other assorted end-of-the-world weather. I'm as prepared as I'm gonna be. Sump pump is chugging along and I have a backup pump if that gets overwhelmed. If we lose power, I'll have a foot of water in my cellar, though. Hopefully it won't come to that.Good idea to have a place to check in and let everyone know we're safe. Batten down the hatches, folks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arch-MaesterPhilip Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I'm in a flood zone a mile from the beach on Staten Island, I evacuated for Irene. I'm going to stay put this time. It's scary and exciting at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Winged Shadow Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I know it's difficult for people on both sides of climate change issues to grasp, but you just can't attribute particular weather events to global warming. There is just enough uncertainty and randomness in the system so that any particular event could theoretically happen whether global temperature rise is a reality or not. So no, neither Sandy nor Katrina nor any other particular hurricane or storm by itself is evidence for climate change (or non-change.)This is not entirely correct anymore. Climate science has come a long way and is improving at an impressive rate. There are papers out which take a look at attributing an extreme weather event to climate change through probabilistic methods. While the science isn't advanced enough to say Event X is due to climate change, it seems to be capable of showing that Event X is Y% likelier due to human-induced climate change. And when that Y% is high enough, you can attribute it to climate change.Take a look at this article for a quick snapshot of it, the article also has a link to the actual scientific journal:http://insights.wri.org/news/2012/07/5-takeaways-noaas-new-study-climate-change-and-extreme-events?goback=.gde_3661405_member_135362579 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a wooden chair Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Last year's October power outage has prepared me well. Friendly tip, slip with your next day's clothes layered between your blankets so when you wake up in the morning to a freezing room the clothes nice and warm to put on. This is assuming you have no way to shower before dressing of course.With luck all the trees fell last time, and no more this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfTinyKittens Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The comparison most are making is to the Perfect Storm of 1991, except that this year it's happening in a high-tide situation and in 1991 this wasn't the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greywolf2375 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yeah, this is lining up to be worse than the storm we had in NE last year when people were without power for two weeks, etc. Going to be a run on milk, eggs and bread this weekend because the proper way to deal with an emergency is french toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfTinyKittens Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yep. Preliminary damage estimates top $1B. Hopefully it won't happen that way though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Gotta admit I'm starting to get a little nervous about this one. The latest projections seem to say the "northern mid-Atlantic" will be the hardest hit, but I'm a little unclear on exactly where that is; New Jersey?Gonna go buy a bunch of dry food tonight in case we lose power (although I'm really hoping DC will be far enough south to avoid most of the damage). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edda van Heefmstra Ruston Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Right now NOAA has predicted US landfall in Delaware.http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/153813.shtml?gm_track#contentsHowever, highest predicted rainfall total is there, edging into Maryland, and a little south/southeast.http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/zoom/Rainfall_Days_1-5.gifHowever, these images'll change as NOAA tracks and reruns their models. DC looks like it'll get pretty dumped on, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myrddin Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Gonna go buy a bunch of dry food tonight in case we lose power (although I'm really hoping DC will be far enough south to avoid most of the damage).Don't forget to buy jugs of water. People tend to forget that potable water supplies can get interrupted too.Stay safe everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Don't forget to buy jugs of water. People tend to forget that potable water supplies can get interrupted too.Stay safe everyone!Yeah I was thinking that. I hate buying bottled water, what a racket that is, but gotta have something if the tap goes out/goes bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ferrum Aeternum Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 All you east coasters stock up on goodies and batten down the hatches! Going to be a run on milk, eggs and bread this weekend because the proper way to deal with an emergency is french toast.:lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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