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About Ormond

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    Council Member
  • Birthday 07/10/1951

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    Omaha, Nebraska
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    Besides ASOIAF:Given names, their usage and history

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  1. The average number of children American women were having around 1800 was just over seven, so most people are going to have ancestors in the 19th century who had lots of kids -- so most would probably have about as many possible "celebrity connections" as you do, I think.
  2. Here's the link to today's column. I didn't have time to explain in it that the Scandinavian surnames Neilsen and Nilsson are NOT from Neil but are from Scandinavian forms of Nicholas. http://www.omaha.com/living/evans-famous-neils-have-made-giant-leaps-throughout-history/article_655163c1-6279-5c21-a24b-302fe3ca3c41.html
  3. I happen to have been born in 1951 myself. It would be interesting to have a further breakdown by education here -- but my own take on this is that those of us who are college educated in that age range ended up more Democratic than average because of Vietnam. The first draft lottery was on December 1, 1969 and the Kent State shooting was on May 4, 1970. That's five months apart during my freshman year in college. It's also the first year of the Nixon presidency. I suspect that the people born in the late 1940s may skew less Democratic than the early 1950s cohorts because they associate Vietnam more with Lyndon Johnson than we do.
  4. When Prophecy Fails is a classic work in social psychology. One should point out, though, that the researchers sent in eight "observers" (four to each of the two houses where the cult had meetings) and these observers presented themselves as "true believers." Some critics of the study say the group was so small to begin with that the sudden showing up of 8 new people claiming to completely buy into the group's beliefs may have made their commitment stronger than it otherwise would have been. Plus several of the group members had made drastic financial decisions in preparation for their belief in widespread natural disasters occurring soon, so it was a more extreme case than most people's commitment to political parties. I certainly think the concept of cognitive dissonance is relevant in explaining these phenomena -- just wanted to point out that particular book gives a really tiny extreme case.
  5. There is data separating people out by specific year of birth. Here is a 2014 chart from Pew which does that, showing that the Silent Generation is the only group where a majority are Republican or Republican-leaning. Though Boomers are less Democratic than Millennials, on that chart the sharpest generational difference is almost right at the traditional boundary between Silents and Boomers -- actually about a year before, with it looking to me like those born in 1944 average out way more Republican than those born in 1945: http://www.people-press.org/2015/04/30/a-different-look-at-generations-and-partisanship/ And on that chart the second half of the Baby Boom definitely averages out less Democratic than the first half. And here is a report from Gallup in 2014, showing that those born between 1931 and 1945, and between 1957 and 1970, were the two most "Republican" groups --again showing that the later Baby Boomers (and early Gen Xers) are more Republican than the early Baby Boomers: http://news.gallup.com/poll/172439/party-identification-varies-widely-across-age-spectrum.aspx
  6. I haven't seen this in any numbers at all in the USA. I just checked the 1934 Social Security data, the year Joanne was at its height in the USA, and there were 31 girls born that year in the USA named "Johanne", 26 "Johann", and 8 "Johan". So I guess this is a rare variant some parents who wanted an unusual spelling came up with in all English speaking countries, inspired by the spelling of the exclamation "Oh!".
  7. Yes. Joann is also usually pronounced as "Jo-Ann", but there are probably a few exceptions who pronounce it the same as Joan.
  8. "Older people being more conservative" is a complex issue. It depends of course partly on how one defines "conservative." At the moment the elderly in the USA are still predominantly members of the Silent Generation, those born before 1946. From the data I've been able to find, they still voted at a slightly higher percentage in 2016 than Baby Boomers did. And they are the most Republican generation, because they came of "political age" under Eisenhower. Boomers are less Republican than the Silents, especially the first two thirds of the Boomers. Boomers are those born between 1946 and 1964. Boomers born before 1960 tend to have about the same % of Republicans and Democrats as the electorate as a whole, if anything slightly swinging toward the Democrats. Those born in the 1960s are more Republican, having come of political age under the late Carter and early Reagan years. Data on whether people become more "conservative" as they age is mixed and differs from country to country. In the United Kingdom, there does seem to be a trend for people to be more likely to vote for the Conservative Party as they age. In the USA, though, there is a lot of evidence that people are more likely to become more liberal on social issues as they age. The shift in support of same sex marriage, for example, was way too large and too swift to just be the result of older people dying off -- a great many older people changed their minds on that issue. Since statistics still show older people average out more "conservative" than the young on such issues, it masks the fact that as a group they have actually become more "liberal" over their lifetimes. In Canada and the US, data which shows older generations being more "conservative" as they age deals with issues of security and authority. And as I understand it the shift toward conservatism on those issues is not primarily a matter of aging but rather a matter of becoming a parent. Many measures of "conservatism" include questions about whether one should always defer to those who are leaders or authorities -- and becoming a parent tends to make one think "people should defer to authority" sounds like a much better idea. Childless people don't seem to become more "conservative" on those issues as they age. "Millennials" are more "liberal" as a group on social issues, but in terms of party identification and identification with the word "Conservative", there is evidence that a higher percentage of them are on the right than earlier generations. As politics in the USA has become more polarized, that polarization has affected Millennials the most -- what has gone way down in that group compared to previous generations is the percentage who say they are "moderates." More of them actually say they are "conservative" than was the case for earlier groups. The paradox with that is the percentage who say they are "Independents" rather than Democrats or Republicans is way up -- but a lot of those young Independents seem to be identifying as "Conservatives" with a llibertarian bent. http://www.latimes.com/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-millennials-politics-conservative-20160907-snap-story.html
  9. To Fragile Bird: Sorry, I definitely have strong doubts about that. There are a few people on this thread that are always pessimistic about such things --and perhaps they tend to use stronger language to express their opinions -- but in my memory there have been just as many people who disagree with them. And since I am sure neither you nor I have the time to go back and count up all the posts that have been made about this issue "for years", we will just have to agree to disagree on that.
  10. Some people said this, but it was never "everyone." And more to the point, I was replying to a post where it was claimed "everyone" on the thread believed this "over the past year", not back in 2012. People have been developing the arguments you make in the rest of your post over the last year. I've read all of them before myself, with the only recent new factor being the Pennsylvania redistricting.
  11. What? How on earth did you come to the conclusion that is "everyone's opinion"? It certainly hasn't been the opinion of everyone on this thread over the past year. Maybe you are confusing this with some other place on the Internet.
  12. Well, I would assume the woman Terry fantasy author, McGarry, has sold a lot less than Goodkind. (I haven't read any of her books yet and so do not know how she compares in quality with the other three.) https://us.macmillan.com/author/terrymcgarry/
  13. Half of America lives in the suburbs and probably an even bigger proportion of high school age students live there. High schools and universities are two different categories. Shootings at colleges and universities have not been particularly "suburban" -- but probably a higher percentage of colleges and universities are located in either big cities or in smaller college towns instead of "suburbs".
  14. It took me a while to figure this sentence out -- I kept wondering if it was a sentence about it only being a couple of new tariffs. But now I think you meant only a couple of people knew about it.
  15. I just can't fathom why you think something that is "such an obviously bad idea" to you would be at all an obviously bad idea to Donald Trump.