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EvanSol919

What was Tywin's original plan?

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So to briefly summarize - Catelyn captures Tyrion, Jaime flees KL after his confrontation with Ned, Tywin attacks the Riverlands and Robert is killed. But what if Robert hadn't died? What was Tywin's plan on how to deal with Robert, who wouldn't be too happy with Tywin's actions? Just have Tyrion released, make the Starks go back North and then return to Casterly Rock?

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Whatever his plan, I always wondered why he was so quick to throw Tyrion under the bus later. Why even allow there to be a trial for Tyrion? If he meant so much that Tywin had to start a war to save him, why is he so quick to get rid of him then?

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Tywin hadn't thought it through all the consequences.  He's smart but he's not super smart.  Smart but emotions won out?  What he did to the River Lands was a reaction to what the Starks did.  Cat and Eddard were more than willing to risk war to find out who tried to kill their son.  Why would you think Tywin would not risk war to get his son back?  You would think surely it would cross Cat's mind the number of people, hundreds of thousands, who might die to learn the truth about what happened to Bran.  It should come to Robb's mind the consequences of shitting on the Freys.  None of that logic kept them from doing what they wanted.  Tywin is of the same class.  He's the same.  Emotions over what he perceived a Stark attack on his house, which it was.  He would risk setting the kingdom on fire to protect his house.

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Tywin didn't give a shit about Tyrion. He only made a big deal about his abduction because it stained the honor of house Lannister. I have a theory about the invasion of the Riverlands really having nothing to do with Tyrion's capture though. Earlier in the book, Ned got reports on Tywin gathering a lot of soilders and sellswords to Casterly Rock for some unknown reason. for the amount of time it would take for a messenger to get from the far side of Westeros, across the narrow sea, and to Qohor to hire The Brave Companions, Tywin would have to already have them at the ready well before Cat kidnaps Tyrion to have them with him. I think he anticipated invading the riverlands and was waiting for an excuse to do so. 

I look forward to finding out what motives Tywin has for his rebellion. He must have been very confident something was gonna go wrong with Ned or had something else in mind for afterwards.

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I think it’s a question of escalation. He began with a raid as a warning. Instead of releasing Tyrion Ned tried to have him declared an outlaw. At this point the Starks are, in Tywins mind, staging a coup. So he would realise war with the Tully’s and Stark’s was coming. At that point he had to invade the Riverlands and destroy the Tully army else they would unite. Also he would be assuming Arryn conspired to join as well. Tyrion was held at the Eyrie. So really in Tyson’s mind he is facing Stark, Tully and Arryn. Which compelled him to either surrender or defeat them in detail. Together he’s the weaker party. So Tywin made a preemptive strike.

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The original basic plan was to get Ned to go West personally, ambush and capture him, and then exchange Ned for Tyrion. Robert would likely be pissed, but he would be unlikely to raise the realm against Tywin in an all out war, and he wants Tyrion released anyway.

Everything other than some limited raiding seems to have been after Robert's death, after which his actions are legitimate(in the eyes of Joffrey supporters).

One thing that seems odd to me is that Tywin never seems to have really had much of a plan for dealing with the South. He had a completely plausible, albeit risky, plan to deal with the Riverlands, Vale and North, by attacking them quickly and not letting them join forces, but he seems to have just resigned himself to the fact that the Stormlands and Reach would inevitably support Renly or Stannis, in the event of a succession crisis. If Renly had wanted to act with haste he could have moved in on King's Landing or invaded the Westerlands from the south whilst Tywin was still bogged down in the Riverlands.

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14 hours ago, EvanSol919 said:

So to briefly summarize - Catelyn captures Tyrion, Jaime flees KL after his confrontation with Ned, Tywin attacks the Riverlands and Robert is killed. But what if Robert hadn't died? What was Tywin's plan on how to deal with Robert, who wouldn't be too happy with Tywin's actions? Just have Tyrion released, make the Starks go back North and then return to Casterly Rock?

Tywin does not strike openly until Robert dies. Before that, he just sent Gregor and his men under cover to sow terror. This way, he can send Catelyn a message that Casterly Rock will not take the kidnapping of a Lannister lying down, and if the river lords respond then they are the ones being aggressive, not Tywin.

Remember, Robert had already ordered Tyrion released before he went hunting. It was only after that order was seemingly ignored that Tywin started raiding across the border. If Robert had lived, however, then Tyrion would most likely have been sent to King's Landing to face trial and Tywin would have deescalated  along the west-river border.

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Tywin invaded Riverlands with almost 40.000 men meaning that there could not have been many soldiers left in Westerlands. So he really seemed to accept huge risk that somebody could successfully invade his lands.

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Tywin's ultimate plan in life is to advance the family. I believe this means freeing Jaime from the Kingsguard, making the Lannisters "kings" in all but name (and through marriage by blood), and possibly to return Tywin to his old office as Hand: How? Below:

 

  • Economics: Control of a large amount of the Gold supply. Lending large amounts of gold to the crown to indebt it and to create a depenency.
  • Militarily: Create and equip a military (albeit still a feudal one) with the training and leadership to challenge any (if not outright the most powerful).
  • Politically: Crush any and all opposition within his own region. Marriage into powerful families (hello Cersei, future for Jaime). As a result, the Lannisters rule the realm.

I believe he wanted to capture Ned (as the others have stated) but would force Robert's hand to release Jamie and/or to make him Hand again. Bobby would not live too long...

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12 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

I think it’s a question of escalation. He began with a raid as a warning. Instead of releasing Tyrion Ned tried to have him declared an outlaw. At this point the Starks are, in Tywins mind, staging a coup. So he would realise war with the Tully’s and Stark’s was coming. At that point he had to invade the Riverlands and destroy the Tully army else they would unite. Also he would be assuming Arryn conspired to join as well. Tyrion was held at the Eyrie. So really in Tyson’s mind he is facing Stark, Tully and Arryn. Which compelled him to either surrender or defeat them in detail. Together he’s the weaker party. So Tywin made a preemptive strike.

Bravo.  What Catelyn did was very provocative and effectively declared war on the Lannisters.  Westeros would be so much better off with the Starks and the Lannisters relegated to minor houses.  

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2 hours ago, Andrew Yang for President said:

Bravo.  What Catelyn did was very provocative and effectively declared war on the Lannisters.  Westeros would be so much better off with the Starks and the Lannisters relegated to minor houses.  

And then two other house's would be in the same position and make the same mistakes because thats what power does.

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On 8/6/2019 at 2:38 AM, EvanSol919 said:

So to briefly summarize - Catelyn captures Tyrion, Jaime flees KL after his confrontation with Ned, Tywin attacks the Riverlands and Robert is killed. But what if Robert hadn't died? What was Tywin's plan on how to deal with Robert, who wouldn't be too happy with Tywin's actions? Just have Tyrion released, make the Starks go back North and then return to Casterly Rock?

Robert was never a problem for Tywin.

The best way to predict someone's future behavior is to look at their past behavior, and whenever there has been a conflict between Stark and Lannister, Robert took the Lannister's side or chickened out. There is no reason to think that Robert would not go on the Lannister line this time as well.

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Posted (edited)

Thanks to the stupidity of Jaime and Cersei, there was always going to be a war involving House Lannister.

It was just a matter of who will be fighting the Lannisters.

Jaime and Cersei were very arrogant, very irresponsible and very stupid. Apparently, whenever King Robert and half his court would tour the realm, Jaime and Cersei would have sex frequently in the castles of their lordly hosts. Joffrey was apparently conceived at Greenstone, the home of Robert Baratheon's Estermont cousins.

It's one thing to f--k around and have an illicit, extremely dangerous affair in the home of a minor lord but it's another thing entirely to f--k around and carry on said affair in the home of a great lord and warden. Especially if said great lord is the best friend of the king.

Let's be honest: Jaime and Cersei were carrying on in a way where them getting caught was eventual.

So, the moment Bran walked in on them, they decided that the best thing to do was to try and kill Bran. They should've just left the boy alone. I can think of a dozen different methods off the top of my head that they could've used to silence Bran.

So, from the moment Cersei and Jaime thought it was a good idea to have sex in Eddard Stark's home (which is wildly disrespectful) knowing full well that he has three hyperactive children under the age of 10 that are known to have free reign of the castle, there was always going to be war between the Starks and Lannisters. Especially since Bran was so close to remembering what exactly happened (and now he remembers everything).

It could have easily been Arya, Rickon, Theon or even Catelyn who walked in on the two of them.

I think that Robert's death is something that Tywin, Cersei and maybe Jaime had been plotting for a long time. Independently or jointly...it doesn't matter. With Joffrey still basically a child, Stannis ruling Dragonstone as the nation's premier naval commander and Renly being both popular and in his physical prime, a succession crisis and war would have been something that they would've been planning for. That explains why Tywin's army had already been mobilized and why the Bloody Mummers were already in Westeros.

So blaming Catelyn or Eddard is nonsense.

Edited by Jabar of House Titan

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On 8/5/2019 at 9:50 PM, 2uenten said:

Whatever his plan, I always wondered why he was so quick to throw Tyrion under the bus later. Why even allow there to be a trial for Tyrion? If he meant so much that Tywin had to start a war to save him, why is he so quick to get rid of him then?

Tywin doesnt care about Tyrion at all only that Tyrion is a Lannister, Tywin seen the kidnapping of Tyrion as an insult to house Lannister and we all know how Tywin deals with insults to house Lannister......... 

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On 8/8/2019 at 1:17 PM, Stormking902 said:

Tywin doesnt care about Tyrion at all only that Tyrion is a Lannister, Tywin seen the kidnapping of Tyrion as an insult to house Lannister and we all know how Tywin deals with insults to house Lannister......... 

Then why does Tywin forbid Tyrion from going to Essos on a tour of the Free Cities as a kid? I always thought that would have been an opportunity to put Tyrion out of sight, out of mind. And maybe if he happens to have an unfortunate "accident" and never come back, all the better. 

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On 8/7/2019 at 11:44 AM, Lion of the West said:

Robert was never a problem for Tywin.

The best way to predict someone's future behavior is to look at their past behavior, and whenever there has been a conflict between Stark and Lannister, Robert took the Lannister's side or chickened out. There is no reason to think that Robert would not go on the Lannister line this time as well.

Probably.  Tywin was the richest, most powerful guy.  He could stand up to Robert.  

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Twyin could plan to have Robert killed (independently from Cersei) and saw a succesion crisis coming with Ned, Renly and Stannis as the biggest threats. Of course he didnt expect the incest thing to come out, so probably he expected more support from Stormlands. Tyrion is a Lannister so whatever he does or happens to him has an effect on the pride of house Lannister. He had the crown economically dependant on Castrely Rock, he had assembled a huge army, he had arranged to have the Arryn heir as a hostage (this could neutralize Lysa and Hoster). 

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On 8/6/2019 at 7:21 AM, Tyrion1991 said:

I think it’s a question of escalation. He began with a raid as a warning. Instead of releasing Tyrion Ned tried to have him declared an outlaw. At this point the Starks are, in Tywins mind, staging a coup. So he would realise war with the Tully’s and Stark’s was coming. At that point he had to invade the Riverlands and destroy the Tully army else they would unite. Also he would be assuming Arryn conspired to join as well. Tyrion was held at the Eyrie. So really in Tyson’s mind he is facing Stark, Tully and Arryn. Which compelled him to either surrender or defeat them in detail. Together he’s the weaker party. So Tywin made a preemptive strike.

The Starks took what was essentially a family feud and took it up a notch.  Tywin took it up another notch.  Ned could have deescalated the whole thing but didn't.  Perhaps it would not have gone up to war if Robert had lived.  Tywin was retaliating but he didn't think it would go as far as it did.  It shouldn't have with a reasonable king on the throne and Tywin incorrectly assessed Robert capable.

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On ‎8‎/‎6‎/‎2019 at 5:45 PM, Loose Bolt said:

Tywin invaded Riverlands with almost 40.000 men meaning that there could not have been many soldiers left in Westerlands. So he really seemed to accept huge risk that somebody could successfully invade his lands.

Tywin trusted in his reputation for ruthlessness and brutal retribution to deter anyone from invading the westerlands. And it worked pretty well until the invasion by Robb Stark and his nothern cavalry.

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On 8/6/2019 at 1:50 AM, 2uenten said:

Whatever his plan, I always wondered why he was so quick to throw Tyrion under the bus later. Why even allow there to be a trial for Tyrion? If he meant so much that Tywin had to start a war to save him, why is he so quick to get rid of him then?

I don’t think Tywin started the war to save Tyrion, he just viewed as a slight on his family’s honour. Remember, during the Battle of the Green Fork he planned to sacrifice Tyrion and the clansmen.

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