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COVID19/4 Keep calm and wash your hands

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6 minutes ago, kairparavel said:

Uh. The This Is Not A Snow Day article at Medium? This guy?

Asaf Bitton MD, MPH, is an assistant professor of medicine at the Division of General Medicine at Brigham and Women's Hospital and assistant professor of health care policy at the Department of Health Care Policy at Harvard Medical School. He is the Executive Director Ariadne Labs, taking over from Dr. Atul Gawande in May 2019.

No, he's called Tomas Pueyo. People posted links to his article a couple of times in the last thread. This appears to be an updated version.

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15 minutes ago, ljkeane said:

No, he's called Tomas Pueyo. People posted links to his article a couple of times in the last thread. This appears to be an updated version.

I did not read the takedown article, but isn’t what he says based on, you know, math?

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1 minute ago, Fragile Bird said:

I did not read the takedown article, but isn’t what he says based on, you know, math?

He's making some pretty significant extrapolations from the limited information that we currently have available. I really have no idea how right or wrong he is but if people with epidemiology and public health expertise are disagreeing with his conclusions I'd take what he's saying with a pinch of salt even if he does have some nice looking graphs.

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1 minute ago, ljkeane said:

He's making some pretty significant extrapolations from the limited information that we currently have available. I really have no idea how right or wrong he is but if people with epidemiology and public health expertise are disagreeing with his conclusions I'd take what he's saying with a pinch of salt even if he does have some nice looking graphs.

There is a substantial body of statistics out there and I don’t thing that you need to be a virologist to see patterns.

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The Dutch government will meet in an emergency session tomorrow (Sunday) to discuss whether to close all schools and educational establishments. Invited to this meeting will be representatives of professional associations of medical specialists, hospitals, and the National Health Institute. 

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181 patients here, around 40 more than yesterday. And the first victim, a man who used to live in a home for the elderly. A few other residents of the same home are also infected.

As far as working exclusively from home is concerned, I do a lot of proofreading, which is always done from home. It is just staring at a computer with a word document open, consulting websites and digital dictionaries and whatnot. And I think I would go crazy within a week if I had to exclusively do this without other assignments and without another job that involves actual human interaction. Working from home is convenient in some ways - no commute, no need for office-appropriate clothing, the ability to set your own schedule in my case - but the isolation would be terrible for most people, I imagine. And I don't even live on my own. Right now it is the sensible thing to do to work from home, but I don't think most people would be able to do it long-term because of the isolation. And also I agree with what was said about not everybody having appropriate space/equipment to work from at home.

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2 minutes ago, Buckwheat said:

. And I think I would go crazy within a week if I had to exclusively do this without other assignments and without another job that involves actual human interaction.

Additionally for most people working at home actually means working in a coffee shop.  And people are doing that; it didn't stop.  So in some ways this closing of offices of certain kinds isn't helping at all, but exposing ever more members of the population.  

It really sux to not know much if anything about this disease, how it operates, time sequences and all the rest!

 

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Second day of isolating at home, with my wife working a 12 hour hospital shift all day again. We needed to be out of the house for two hours because we're trying to sell and our realtor lined up a couple of private showings. Where do you take a five year old when movies, restaurants, and playgrounds are off limits? Seems like a lot of people had the same idea as me, because the beach was relatively busy for mid-March. It was a blustery and raw day and my son called me "selfish" for taking him somewhere he didn't want to go. His mother and I have tried as much as possible to explain that it's not safe to go to playgrounds and other fun places. We left the beach after a few minutes and went to a nature trail my wife and I like. Surprisingly busy there too. But the little guy at least enjoyed it more out there.

We finally came home around lunch time, having successfully avoided other people's germs. And then he saw the business card left by a visiting real estate agent, and stuck it to his mouth. :dunno:

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4 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Additionally for most people working at home actually means working in a coffee shop.  And people are doing that; it didn't stop.  So in some ways this closing of offices of certain kinds isn't helping at all, but exposing ever more members of the population.  

It really sux to not know much if anything about this disease, how it operates, time sequences and all the rest!

Hm, I didn't even think of the possibility more people would work from coffee shops now - I don't see that much here anyway, and I have never tried it. Way too loud there for me, I cannot even work with quiet calm music playing, let along people talking all around.

Our government is discussing shutting down all hospitality establishments now.

I am sure smart people will figure out a lot about it soon. These virologists, biologists, immunologists etc. are clever people.

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1 hour ago, ljkeane said:

No, he's called Tomas Pueyo. People posted links to his article a couple of times in the last thread. This appears to be an updated version.

Ah, ok. I missed all that. The Snow Day article is the only widely shared Medium article seen. 

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Just a small anecdote that a grocery store I often go to and went to earlier this week was night and day difference just now.  Frozen section almost entirely empty but still tons of fresh produce.  No dry pasta either.  Tons of booze still.  I chatted with the employees a tad, and they'd heard  that more supplies should be coming no problem and that this was just this initial shock.  Hope that's true.  

Jokes aside about drinking to cope are people drinking less because they're worried it'll make them more vulnerable?  

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2 minutes ago, Triskele said:

Jokes aside about drinking to cope are people drinking less because they're worried it'll make them more vulnerable?  

Or maybe because you’re not supposed to mix alcohol with medications. 

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Wow state of alarm in Spain. More than 6000 cases and we will have restricted freedom of mobility from tomorrow. First day of confinement...

 

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Something beautiful is that we started seeing the first applauses at 10 pm from the balconies dedicated to all the doctors and nurses, something that started happenibg in Italy a few days ago.

I think all the coubtries (UK aside, I hope I am wrong) will start taking the same measures or similar ones. It's like watching the immediate future or immeduate past of what it is essentially the same culture in all the European countries...

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We've got our first case:

COVID-19 reaches N.L. as 1st presumptive case announced

Quote

Newfoundland and Labrador has its first presumptive case of COVID-19, the province's chief medical officer of health Dr. Janice Fitzgerald announced Saturday evening.

Fitzgerald said the woman recently returned from travel on a cruise ship in the Caribbean and is currently self-isolating and contact tracing has begun. She said the person has mild symptoms and is doing well, but could give no further details due to privacy concerns.

"Our public health officials continue to work very hard and are well-prepared," said Fitzgerald.

"We knew our province would eventually get cases and there are plans in place to respond."

While concern about this new virus is understandable, Fitzgerald said, there is no need to panic.

"This is one case. Public health is doing its job … there is not a cause for alarm at this point," she said.

"We're always concerned when we see this type of disease evolving, but our measures are in place and I think we can rely on those measures to find the cases."

Fitzgerald said a total of 144 people in the province have been tested for COVID-19 and 67 have been confirmed negative, and results are forthcoming for the remaining people from the National Microbiology Lab in Manitoba. 

She said 121 people in the province are currently in isolation.

Fitzgerald recommended avoiding all non-essential travel outside of Canada. Any travellers who arrive in the province from outside the country should self-isolate for 14 days.

 

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Closing of schools and universities. Restrictions on Museums, concerts, cinemas, gyms. Closure of them. Closing of restaurants and bars. General panic for fearing we won't have enough food. The particular case of toilet paper...

Closure or quarantene in the frontiers. Not happening in Spain, despite the Autonomous Presidents (in my case the Catalan one) having asked for that.

It's all very similar.

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3 minutes ago, Aemon Stark said:

I happened to catch the press conference from PEI today, announcing their first case as well. Also a woman who had been on a cruise. I am so grateful we never booked one for January, when we have often gone, because we thought prices were ridiculous. Also, we haven't been since Trump first became president, because behaviour was actually becoming more, mmmmm, aggressive, let's say. 

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5 minutes ago, Aemon Stark said:

Hey Aemon - In case you have thoughts:

I have a couple infectious disease doctors at my work that I got a chance to chat with this past week.  They both more-or-less reiterated what generally seems to be out there:  that it's definitely worse than influenza but not Outbreak the film bad, that the elderly are more vulnerable, etc...

One shared an interesting comment though one that I've seen elsewhere which is thinking it's going to be around for a long time.  I feel like that's a part of the discussion that's not been out there too much.  It's like we're talking about the upcoming crisis period but then it'll be fine.  

Could this be like a new flu where it's more manageable as treatment gets better but rears back every year during a peak season for the foreseeable future?  

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Down to our last roll of toilet paper, but luckily found a couple packages left at our local target. Would never have thought that would have been an issue, but we’re closing on our new home Wednesday and the in laws are driving in. Not sure how smart that is, but we can’t bring a one year old to a closing and have no other options.

I almost can’t think of it because closing, moving, in-laws, not working, and finding out we’re having a second, then closing on our old house, all within a couple weeks. Oh, and I’m pretty sure one of my dogs is on her way out :(

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