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Tywin Manderly

US Politics: Mad Max Beyond Corona Dome

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2 hours ago, Fez said:

Things may be setting up for a major showdown between Trump and state governors...

 

The Mad King has gone too far this time and the Lords of the realm must band together to stop him from wreaking havoc 

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9 minutes ago, Triskele said:

It's so short-sighted too.  If it leads to an much larger spike in cases you're almost certainly just delaying the economic pain.

If I was Trump, even if I was completely self-interested, I do everything I can to stop the virus as quickly as possible and push for as much federal help on both the supplies issue and the fiscal issue and then hope that everything's looking up by reelection time and he can declare victory in the war on the virus.  

Prolonging the fight against the virus itself would seem like the worst idea for Trump's own interest.  

If you were Trump, you'd be a better president than him.

The US is pretty obviously not doing ENOUGH to suppress the virus.  It is uncertain if the state level lockdowns in a few states and a general recommendation for social distancing (with no enforcement) everywhere else has reduced the R infection rate below 1.  And remember that Corona has a normal R number of ~2.5, hence the exponential growth.  If the measures in WA, CA, NY reduced R to 0.6, then in those states the number of new cases will be going down.  But if all the other states are only at R of 1.5, then as a country the problem is still getting exponentially worse, and we're only buying a little bit of time before our hospitals collapse. 

If Trump were to recommend ending social distancing and everybody going back to work, it could very realistically kill tens, even hundreds of thousands of Americans.  The fact that he is even considering it shows that he is STILL not taking this virus seriously. 

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15 minutes ago, Triskele said:

It's so short-sighted too.  If it leads to an much larger spike in cases you're almost certainly just delaying the economic pain.

If I was Trump, even if I was completely self-interested, I do everything I can to stop the virus as quickly as possible and push for as much federal help on both the supplies issue and the fiscal issue and then hope that everything's looking up by reelection time and he can declare victory in the war on the virus.  

Prolonging the fight against the virus itself would seem like the worst idea for Trump's own interest.  

Well, let us say perversely he wants to make the crisis worse and last longer. How could he do this? Sure, Presidents have some pretty broad powers, but there are also limits. How can he force NY & California to not shut down if they refuse? 

I mean beyond what he is already doing to make the situation worse, like refusing to force companies to make healthcare supplies/gear.

He could open the borders I guess. I'm not sure why he'd do that.

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1 minute ago, Martell Spy said:

Well, let us say perversely he wants to make the crisis worse and last longer. How could he do this? Sure, Presidents have some pretty broad powers, but there are also limits. How can he force NY & California to not shut down if they refuse? 

I mean beyond what he is already doing to make the situation worse, like refusing to force companies to make healthcare supplies/gear.

He could open the borders I guess. I'm not sure why he'd do that.

If he were to make an announcement that social distancing isn't needed and we should all go back to work, it would be a signal to the ~30% of the country that gets their news from him and Fox News that they don't need to be nearly as careful.  Even in WA and NY there are some Trump supporters in this camp, and the Governors can't achieve an effective lockdown if people don't go along with it.  Not to mention the many states who are taking this far less seriously than WA and NY (like say, Florida and Texas).

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2 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

If you were Trump, you'd be a better president than him.

The US is pretty obviously not doing ENOUGH to suppress the virus.  It is uncertain if the state level lockdowns in a few states and a general recommendation for social distancing (with no enforcement) everywhere else has reduced the R infection rate below 1.  And remember that Corona has a normal R number of ~2.5, hence the exponential growth.  If the measures in WA, CA, NY reduced R to 0.6, then in those states the number of new cases will be going down.  But if all the other states are only at R of 1.5, then as a country the problem is still getting exponentially worse, and we're only buying a little bit of time before our hospitals collapse. 

If Trump were to recommend ending social distancing and everybody going back to work, it could very realistically kill tens, even hundreds of thousands of Americans.  The fact that he is even considering it shows that he is STILL not taking this virus seriously. 

Expecting Trump to ever have any long term considerations is to not know him well at all. Everything Trump has done during his entire life has been for short term or immediate gratification. Every business he has run he has run into the ground. Now we are watching him run the United States into the ground.

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2 minutes ago, maarsen said:

Expecting Trump to ever have any long term considerations is to not know him well at all. Everything Trump has done during his entire life has been for short term or immediate gratification. Every business he has run he has run into the ground. Now we are watching him run the United States into the ground.

It is just amazing that his short term thinking doesn't even extend until November.  Virtually everything he's done on Coronavirus has served to make the situation better for maybe a week and make the situation worse for any timescale beyond that. 

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Just now, Maithanet said:

It is just amazing that his short term thinking doesn't even extend until November.  Virtually everything he's done on Coronavirus has served to make the situation better for maybe a week and make the situation worse for any timescale beyond that. 

Not so amazing when you consider that the man is a complete idiot.

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7 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

we will start to see disruption in the supply lines.

The end of coffee = the end of the capitalist world as it has been known, which began, really, in the coffee houses of the 17th and 18th century -- Wall Street's Tontine and Market Coffee House were the center in New Amsterdam and old New York. They also were deeply involved in the slave trade and had a slave market right outside.

In the meantime, imagine how much the markets would rally if saboteur in chief resigned RIGHT NOW!

Edited by Zorral

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Hate to go back to stupid horse race shit but the media is certainly not making it easy.  This is not a good look:

Also, this may be in conspiracy theory land, but leftist Twitter has been raging about the exit polling showing Sanders about 15% higher than reported results almost everywhere since Super Tuesday.  @DMC, please tell me there's a reasonable explanation for this?

Edited by larrytheimp
ETA: the ABC graphic in the link also shows some kind of value for Sanders in superdelegates...just seems like theres been an issue with this before

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2 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

@DMC, please tell me there's a reasonable explanation for this?

Well, exit polls are often fairly inaccurate.  Some of this is inherent - it's difficult to get a random (i.e. representative) sample simply by asking as many people as possible when they're leaving the precinct.  But, yeah, a 15% error seems a little much.  I'd need more information - although one thing to keep in mind is the 3 contests last Tuesday weren't even traditional exit polls, so even that large of an error wouldn't surprise me with them.

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2 hours ago, Maithanet said:

If you were Trump, you'd be a better president than him.

The US is pretty obviously not doing ENOUGH to suppress the virus.  It is uncertain if the state level lockdowns in a few states and a general recommendation for social distancing (with no enforcement) everywhere else has reduced the R infection rate below 1.  And remember that Corona has a normal R number of ~2.5, hence the exponential growth.  If the measures in WA, CA, NY reduced R to 0.6, then in those states the number of new cases will be going down.  But if all the other states are only at R of 1.5, then as a country the problem is still getting exponentially worse, and we're only buying a little bit of time before our hospitals collapse. 

If Trump were to recommend ending social distancing and everybody going back to work, it could very realistically kill tens, even hundreds of thousands of Americans.  The fact that he is even considering it shows that he is STILL not taking this virus seriously. 

Without a nationally coordinated response (i.e., a national lockdown), it's hard for me to see how this ends well.  Even if the states that have enacted quarantines can get control of the disease in the next 2 to 3 months, the states that haven't enacted quarantines will be spiraling out of control by then (or earlier), and unless the states start trying to block travel to and from each other, we will just have waves of infection being spread internally within our country.  It's going to be a nightmare for a long, long time.

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18 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

Hate to go back to stupid horse race shit but the media is certainly not making it easy.  This is not a good look:

Also, this may be in conspiracy theory land, but leftist Twitter has been raging about the exit polling showing Sanders about 15% higher than reported results almost everywhere since Super Tuesday.  @DMC, please tell me there's a reasonable explanation for this?

To be really clear the 1145 number is the number of pledged delegates and has nothing to do with super ones. The shaded thing is pretty stupid. Sanders is still in a crazy big hole. 

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5 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

To be really clear the 1145 number is the number of pledged delegates and has nothing to do with super ones. The shaded thing is pretty stupid. Sanders is still in a crazy big hole. 

Totally, and the screenshot admittedly makes it look worse by hovering the cursor over Biden to only show the superdelegates count for him, I'm more just wondering why they'd even bother with superdelegates at all, especially given the past issues with this.

 

As far as the exit polls stuff goes, seems to be mostly about Michigan, and most of it seems to go back to some poll by tmds research, but there is a suspicious lack of other info from or on them.  None of the other exit polls have as big a discrepancy.  I'd also heard California and Texas mentioned this way but obviously CA has its own unique and normal trickle of results.  Was wondering if I was missing something because so much shit is paywalled and I am limited to browsing from my phone rn.  

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11 minutes ago, Paladin of Ice said:

It seems like an immediate factor, depending on which race it was, would be accounting for early or mail-in voting too.

Yeah I thought about that.  There's been a lot of analysis trying to determine if there's a difference between early voters and those that vote on election day, and most I've seen show they're remarkably similar.  However, IIRC, that's almost always looking at general elections.  It is possible the primary electorate has significant variations - as in Biden's advantage with older voters means he has disproportionate margins with the early vote because older voters are more habitual and thus significantly likely to vote early.

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I think the immediate result of this crisis, is that we're going to finally see the passage of universal health care in the US.  Certainly if a Democrat is elected, and it may get such a demand from those about to join the high rate of unemployment we're about to see that even Trump will promise some form of it as well.  Hopefully that will correspond with a commitment to increase the domestic manufacturing infrastructure for essential goods, like medicine. 

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The Euro is about to blow up the EU. Any moment now, folks. Hope you're on the edge of your seats, holding your breath! Blink and you'll  miss it!

(Just kidding. The EU finance ministers have agreed to do the sensible, expected thing and suspend its budget rules so that Italy and Spain and so on can borrow what they need.)

Edited by Ran

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We desperately need a national draft, to put to work all those out of work, to do productive and utterly necessary work.  To ramp up manufacture of PPE and medical supplies, to organize distribution, particularly to the over 70's who are prohibited to go out even for essentials without a mask and official permission.  What masks? What permission? From whom? How is it obtained?

ZOOM faculty, staff, admin and student conference meeting.  Well attended, though there are no answers.  However, this is the point, made over and over, that the programs such as media studies, film, music and television production, have ramped up over all faster and with more talent than many other programs, which makes sense considering what these people do.  But elderly people who may not even own a computer or a smart phone?  

Thus, we need a national draft.  Maybe even to start with, a state-wide one.  Of course this is a vain hope of Zorral with leadership is bored with the virus and is determined to re-open everything, and let genocide be the means to deal.  In the meantime Florida got all the PPE and medical supplies it requested from federal stockpiles.

 

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