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Tywin Manderly

Who Pays the Coronaman? - Covid #8

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Nembro, one of the municipalities most affected by Covid-19, should have had - under normal conditions - about 35 deaths. 158 people were registered dead this year by the municipal offices. But the number of deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 is 31

In Nembro the almost deserted streets, the absent traffic, a strange silence is sometimes interrupted by the siren of an ambulance that carries with it the anxiety and worry that fill the hearts of all in these weeks. In Nembro every member of the community continuously receives news that he never wanted to hear, every day we lose people who were part of our lives and our community. Nembro, in the province of Bergamo, is the municipality most affected by Covid-19 in relation to the population. We do not know exactly how many people have been infected, but we know that the number of deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 is 31. We are two physicists: one who became an entrepreneur in the health sector, the other a mayor, in close contact with a very cohesive territory, where we know each other very well. We noticed that something in these official numbers did not come back right, and we decided - together - to check. We looked at the average of the deaths in the municipality of previous years, in the period January - March. Nembro should have had - under normal conditions - about 35 deaths. 158 people were registered dead this year by the municipal offices. That is 123 more than the average. Not 31 more, as it should have been according to the official numbers of the coronavirus epidemic.

https://www.corriere.it/politica/20_marzo_26/the-real-death-toll-for-covid-19-is-at-least-4-times-the-official-numbers-b5af0edc-6eeb-11ea-925b-a0c3cdbe1130.shtml

article from 26.03

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Posted (edited)
42 minutes ago, Mudguard said:

Were the crematoriums put on hold during the duration of the quarantine?  If so, there would be a large backlog of dead to burn once they reopened.  Do you have any citations from a reputable cite that supports this hypothesis?

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/wuhan-deaths-03272020182846.html

Speculative, but a number of Chinese citizens have their names on record sharing information, and there are quotes from (nameless) Wuhan officials. Foreign Policy in early February also seems to mention many local reports about cremations having been ramping up, which doesn't suggest to me the crematoriums were shut down.

I considered this stuff a conspiracy theory as well back in February, but it's getting hard to believe that the numbers in China, at least in Wuhan, are correct seeing the development of this in other countries.

ETA: Have no problem believing that in Italy and France there are excess deaths not being counted as covid because of lack of testing and other factors. Retrospective analysis will clarify this. I don't believe there is any widespread governmental effort at a national evel in those countries to deliberately downplay numbers... well, not in France anyways. :P Regionally, I couldn't say. 

The US will also end up like this, by the by. It will take a year or two for the dust to clear and people to really get a sense of the scale of this.

Edited by Ran

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7 minutes ago, Ran said:

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/wuhan-deaths-03272020182846.html

Speculative, but a number of Chinese citizens have their names on record sharing information, and there are quotes from (nameless) Wuhan officials. Foreign Policy in early February also seems to mention many local reports about cremations having been ramping up, which doesn't suggest to me the crematoriums were shut down.

I considered this stuff a conspiracy theory as well back in February, but it's getting hard to believe that the numbers in China, at least in Wuhan, are correct seeing the development of this in other countries.

ETA: Have no problem believing that in Italy and France there are excess deaths not being counted as covid because of lack of testing and other factors. Retrospective analysis will clarify this. I don't believe there is any widespread governmental effort at a national evel in those countries to deliberately downplay numbers... well, not in France anyways. :P Regionally, I couldn't say. 

The US will also end up like this, by the by. It will take a year or two for the dust to clear and people to really get a sense of the scale of this.

Problem is, politicians will make it „a Numbers‘ Game“ and a „Contest“, at least that’s what I fear. Especially populist politicians. Which Xi is for sure. For Trump goes the same. Remember what he said only 3 weeks ago  „I like the numbers low, I like as they are now.“ something like that. 

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Check this out

Quote

The ambulance, which was transporting a coronavirus patient Terneuzen (NL) via the Antwerp (BE) ring road, was stopped and forced by an operator to pay the €6 toll. 

This story first emerged in the form of a Facebook post by paramedic Martijn Hendriks, one of the personnel aboard the ambulance. In his post, he explains that they had crossed the border without trouble, but around 10km further down the road — by the Liefkenshoektunnel — they were stopped by a barrier.

They reportedly waited around 10 minutes before finally getting through to an operator via the intercom at the barrier, and to be told they would not be able to pass through as expected, but would in fact have to pay the €6 toll fee before preceding. Driving up to the toll booth, matters were further complicated by the operators refusal to accept their 'corona infected [cash] money'.

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Ran said:

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/wuhan-deaths-03272020182846.html

Speculative, but a number of Chinese citizens have their names on record sharing information, and there are quotes from (nameless) Wuhan officials. Foreign Policy in early February also seems to mention many local reports about cremations having been ramping up, which doesn't suggest to me the crematoriums were shut down.

I considered this stuff a conspiracy theory as well back in February, but it's getting hard to believe that the numbers in China, at least in Wuhan, are correct seeing the development of this in other countries.

ETA: Have no problem believing that in Italy and France there are excess deaths not being counted as covid because of lack of testing and other factors. Retrospective analysis will clarify this. I don't believe there is any widespread governmental effort at a national evel in those countries to deliberately downplay numbers... well, not in France anyways. :P Regionally, I couldn't say. 

The US will also end up like this, by the by. It will take a year or two for the dust to clear and people to really get a sense of the scale of this.

That's essentially the same story as my Time's article and the Newsweek article Trisk shared (both the Newsweek and Times article added the info about the 56,000 deaths in the 4th quarter of 2019), which I read after making my post and I assume is where you initially got your info.

I don't see anything unusual with the numbers.  Why does the author of the Newsweek article cited by Trisk assume that there should be 16000 deaths during the 2.5 month period when there was 56,000 deaths in the 4th quarter of 2019?  56,000*2.5/3 =46,667 deaths expected over a 2.5 month period.  That is in line with the 42,000 urns estimate.

For there to be 30,000 deaths from COVID-19 in Wuhan would mean that there were at least 300K cases in Wuhan alone, if you assume a worse case 10% fatality rate due to an overwhelmed health care system like we are seeing in Italy.  There should have been thousands dying per day during the peak.  Is it possible to hide that many deaths?  I also thought that they were placing all the infected in makeshift camps.  They would have had to build ten times the number of camps to house this many infected.  Something of that magnitude would be visible on satellite.  I'm not sure that it's possible to completely lock down that type of bombshell.

 

Edited by Mudguard

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I just saw an article saying the Chinese are looking at cholesterol levels in Covid-19 patients. Cholesterol levels drop while the patients are first infected then start rising again.

Apparently the role of cholesterol fighting off infections is being investigated everywhere, against Ebola, Rift Valley Fever and other deadly pathogens.

A 1997 Lancet article discussed findings that seniors with high cholesterol are best protected from cancer and infections.

Statins being taken to lower cholesterol interfere with the flu vaccine.

 

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So here's a thought........they're now saying the rona could kill 100-200,000 people, here in the US.  With obesity accounting for roughly 300,000 deaths a year and tobacco killing almost 500,000 people a year in America, why not combat those issues with the daily numbers like they're are with the rona?  People seem to be taking rona seriously, if we were hit with the tobacco and obesity numbers daily maybe they would resonate more?

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So the stricter limitations on moving outside now mean that we are not allowed to leave our communes/municipalities, except for going to work. It is only allowed to go shopping for food, to the pharmacy, to get medical care and some other necessary places. It is necessary to wear gloves and cover your mouth and nose when entering these places.

Also, the vulnerable groups, mainly the elderly, are only allowed to go shopping between 8.00 AM and 10.00 AM, as these hours are reserved for them.

The new (far right) government is now reserving its right to track citizens' movement by their mobile phones or some shit. Most people don't seem to agree with that, as it seems way too invasive of people's privacy.

And yet, building sites and factories are still operating, without much care for the workers' health apparently. I am not sure finishing some new office buildings is now a priority.

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59 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

The Return of the King’s tone and characterization were all wrong.

IT'S BEEN SEVENTEEN YEARS. FOR THE LOVE OF ALL THAT IS HOLY, LET IT GO MAN.

:P

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Tears of Lys said:

So I'm reading this list of how long C-19 germs live on different surfaces, like elevators buttons 2-3 days; wood 4 days; metal 5 days . . .

and I start to think about things not listed, like paper money or coins.  Unless you use charge cards for any purchases, anytime you pay in cash you handle money, right?

Makes you think.

:leaving:

 

The UK has been requiring/encouraging contactless card payments only for a while now for this reason. 

Is chip and Pin still not used widely in the U. S? And do you have contactless card payments? 

6 hours ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

Paying with cards or phones is strongly encouraged here in Austria anyways because it reduces contact between store employees and customers.  They even want to increase the amount you can pay with contactless cards without having to enter you pin code(it is 25 € now). Austria is still a pretty cash heavy country though. 

A plus for the Scandinavian countries I guess.

I know the bank I am with has increased the contactless limit to £45. I didn't properly read the email but it might have said other banks had too. 

Ironically, my card no longer works for contactless payments for some reason. Have sufficient funds and these weren't large payments (ranging from £6-18) so will need to ring the bank to see what's up. 

22 minutes ago, the Greenleif Stark said:

So here's a thought........they're now saying the rona could kill 100-200,000 people, here in the US.  With obesity accounting for roughly 300,000 deaths a year and tobacco killing almost 500,000 people a year in America, why not combat those issues with the daily numbers like they're are with the rona?  People seem to be taking rona seriously, if we were hit with the tobacco and obesity numbers daily maybe they would resonate more?

Because the tobacco and food industry wouldn't want a silly thing like numbers of deaths to interfere with important matters like profits! 

 

Eta - to be more serious, it would be great if this happened, but I can't see a hope in hell that it would because there is too much wealth and profit to be made from these industries

Edited by HelenaExMachina

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3 minutes ago, HelenaExMachina said:

Ironically, my card no longer works for contactless payments for some reason. Have sufficient funds and these weren't large payments (ranging from £6-18) so will need to ring the bank to see what's up. 

I thought my card was the only one with this freakish problem - it still works if I stick the chip into the machine, but the contactless function hasn't been working for months (at first I thought it was only a problem abroad, as I was in Austria most of that time, so I didn't contact the bank about it yet).

And contactless payments have been encouraged for weeks here too. Today is apparently the day when the retired get their pension, so the media are also telling them not to go to the bank today if at all possible to have it paid out in cash - this is otherwise practiced by a lot of the elderly who have grown up without cards, online banking etc.

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Posted (edited)
42 minutes ago, the Greenleif Stark said:

So here's a thought........they're now saying the rona could kill 100-200,000 people, here in the US.  With obesity accounting for roughly 300,000 deaths a year and tobacco killing almost 500,000 people a year in America, why not combat those issues with the daily numbers like they're are with the rona?  People seem to be taking rona seriously, if we were hit with the tobacco and obesity numbers daily maybe they would resonate more?

This logic is not really working. It’s a feature of your system, not a bug. Same with the crazy number of deaths due to the opioid crisis. Or the number of gun deaths. Or the number of alcohol related deaths (in every western country). Companies are making money and deaths are collateral damage. 

Edited by Arakan

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1 hour ago, the Greenleif Stark said:

So here's a thought........they're now saying the rona could kill 100-200,000 people, here in the US.  With obesity accounting for roughly 300,000 deaths a year and tobacco killing almost 500,000 people a year in America, why not combat those issues with the daily numbers like they're are with the rona?  People seem to be taking rona seriously, if we were hit with the tobacco and obesity numbers daily maybe they would resonate more?

It's because those rates are relatively static. We're getting a daily update to show us just how quickly this is expanding. It's not like every three days we double the amount of people that die from cancer, or get in a car crash.

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Ugh, the numbers coming out of Detroit are not good. Haven't seen an update from Chicago, but it can't be good there either. I keep seeing reports that the Midwest is about to take a beating, so I'm sure Minneapolis-St. Paul will start looking bleak soon too.

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20 hours ago, Arakan said:

The official wording by the UK authorities, from today (those cheeky smartasses hahaha, noooooo we don’t lie like those commie Chinese or those Allahu Akbar Iranians...you just have to read carefully). 

As of 5pm on 28 March, of those hospitalised in the UK, 1,228 have sadly died.

They’ve acknowledged this and will be realising a weekly ‘deaths in the community’ figure. It’s really hard to judge how many will be included in this, if they never went to hospital then you’d assume they were never tested? And if they died, did they test posthumously? 
 

Also, not everything is a conspiracy ... they worded it like that because that’s exactly what the figure is.

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, DaveSumm said:

They’ve acknowledged this and will be realising a weekly ‘deaths in the community’ figure. It’s really hard to judge how many will be included in this, if they never went to hospital then you’d assume they were never tested? And if they died, did they test posthumously? 
 

Also, not everything is a conspiracy ... they worded it like that because that’s exactly what the figure is.

We are having about 3x as many sudden deaths as normal.  However the figures are pretty low to start off with so there is not a huge 'saving' in figures. 

We don't have figures on what the increase is from, it might be suicides due to depression, or elderly people dying of neglect due to lack of facilities.  So linked to C19, but not because of. 

Edited by BigFatCoward

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The reports on people who died at home not being counted in the figures are scary. 

The very first death in Nebraska was a man who died at home. And his death was not counted as being COVID-19 until four or five days later -- his family at first attributed it to a heart condition. I suppose that means it was discovered through an autopsy. But Nebraska is still way down on the curve. If Omaha gets like NYC or Detroit, they probably won't have the resources to check out cases like that.

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29 minutes ago, DaveSumm said:

They’ve acknowledged this and will be realising a weekly ‘deaths in the community’ figure. It’s really hard to judge how many will be included in this, if they never went to hospital then you’d assume they were never tested? And if they died, did they test posthumously? 
 

Also, not everything is a conspiracy ... they worded it like that because that’s exactly what the figure is.

Who is talking about conspiracy? Tuning the figures is standard procedure in basically every large organization, be it political, social or economical. It’s basic human nature. The only question is with how much chutzpah, if you make it smart or simply don’t give a shit. In the end, every figure is a matter of how you define your samples ;). No conspiracy needed, just some basic knowledge of human psychology... 

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