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US Politics: Biden our time while Trump's on the stump


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On 7/12/2020 at 3:45 PM, ThinkerX said:

you can thank the republicans for the 'profit based' business bit.  

 

like I said, I have an entirely unfounded suspicion that a number of congress critters are using the USPS pension fund as a personal piggy bank.

 

I've been looking into this since I saw your post, and man, super fucked up. That's got to change. Honestly, no one delivers as consistently and according to specification as the USPS. They're an essential service, and they're the best at providing it even in the free market. (After I had to start having special pharmacy orders shipped to me and in need of remaining cold, the other carriers consistently screwed this up!)

On 7/12/2020 at 6:36 PM, Fury Resurrected said:

The thing is, the only reason it became unprofitable was they passed some insane requirement they fully fund pensions up front for people they’ve essentially not even hired yet (this was by republicans looking for a reason to later sell and privatize the post office). We don’t even need to fund it- we just need to take the boot off of its neck

That makes sense. It seems like some crazy libertarian effort to knock the USPS out of service.

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1 hour ago, Fez said:

Alabama Democrats seem to be going hard on Tuberville's coaching tenure. Which, considering its Alabama, might not be the worst idea:

In national news, no reversion to the mean yet in the latest Q-poll:

Biden+15 seems excessive; but is basically in line with the Monmouth+13 PA poll from this morning.

Give me something to dream about. What would that look like if it held until November? 400+ for Biden? 

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So many troubles for the DNC in terms of the election that they should be paying attention to and figuring out how to deal with.

https://www.npr.org/2020/07/13/889751095/signed-sealed-undelivered-thousands-of-mail-in-ballots-rejected-for-tardiness

New York mail in ballots rejected because of missing post mark.  The post mark is missing because there was a pre-paid envelope with the ballot, thus it wasn't machine franked.

https://gothamist.com/news/heres-what-could-invalidate-your-absentee-ballot-and-its-beyond-your-control

Plus, of course, just this week, the DCC's demands that the USPO slow down the processing and delivery of first class mail.

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Susan Collins is challenging Sara Gideon to 16 (sixteen!) debates in the run-up to the election. Gideon proposed five. 

I've used a lot of words to describe Collins over the years, but I never thought "thirsty" would be one of them.

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A bunch of prominent twitter accounts (IE Bill Gates, Elon Musk, etc) have been hacked for a bitcoin scam, to combat this twitter has stopped verified accounts from tweeting, Trump has a verified account. Anyone think Trump might explode from not being able to tweet?

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1 hour ago, BigFatCoward said:

Give me something to dream about. What would that look like if it held until November? 400+ for Biden? 

The current polling average is Biden +9, that would mean Biden winning all the Clinton states + the six swing states (FL, MI, WI, PA, NC, AZ) and probably splitting the next four reach states (GA, TX, IA, OH).  Assuming GA/OH but not TX/IA would be 369.  

If you're talking about Biden +15 actually happening, then Biden wins GA/TX/IA/OH, but there actually aren't a lot of additional states likely to flip.  Alaska, Montana, Missouri, Indiana and South Carolina are all vaguely possible, but even with Biden +15 I wouldn't count on any of them.  Assuming none of those super duper reach states, that would be Biden 413, Trump 125.

Also, with Biden + 9, I'd expect something like a 52/48 D Senate.  With Biden +15, probably more like 55/45.  

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1 hour ago, Zorral said:

So many troubles for the DNC in terms of the election that they should be paying attention to and figuring out how to deal with.

https://www.npr.org/2020/07/13/889751095/signed-sealed-undelivered-thousands-of-mail-in-ballots-rejected-for-tardiness

New York mail in ballots rejected because of missing post mark.  The post mark is missing because there was a pre-paid envelope with the ballot, thus it wasn't machine franked.

https://gothamist.com/news/heres-what-could-invalidate-your-absentee-ballot-and-its-beyond-your-control

Plus, of course, just this week, the DCC's demands that the USPO slow down the processing and delivery of first class mail.

So, is it likely that there will be challenges to election results in every state? I mean anyplace having a mail in ballot seems to have had disputes. And how long can it go on for or do they just draw a line and say we have to have a result?

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5 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

The current polling average is Biden +9, that would mean Biden winning all the Clinton states + the six swing states (FL, MI, WI, PA, NC, AZ) and probably splitting the next four reach states (GA, TX, IA, OH).  Assuming GA/OH but not TX/IA would be 369.  

If you're talking about Biden +15 actually happening, then Biden wins GA/TX/IA/OH, but there actually aren't a lot of additional states likely to flip.  Alaska, Montana, Missouri, Indiana and South Carolina are all vaguely possible, but even with Biden +15 I wouldn't count on any of them.  Assuming none of those super duper reach states, that would be Biden 413, Trump 125.

Also, with Biden + 9, I'd expect something like a 52/48 D Senate.  With Biden +15, probably more like 55/45.  

That lopsided an outcome, I could see Mississippi flipping too. The state is too polarized for Democrats to usually ever win. But the floor there is high enough (Obama got 43% in 2008, Clinton still got 40% in 2016), that if Republican turnout craters (which I think is one of the requirements for Biden to actually get to +15) I could see Biden getting a weird, random win there.

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Jesus Christ, Dr. Fauci is like a goddamn real, true-blue American hero. I mean, I knew about his role in the AIDS crisis, but the guy was fighting on the front lines during Ebola to show his troops he had their backs.

At 74!

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1 hour ago, TrueMetis said:

A bunch of prominent twitter accounts (IE Bill Gates, Elon Musk, etc) have been hacked for a bitcoin scam, to combat this twitter has stopped verified accounts from tweeting, Trump has a verified account. Anyone think Trump might explode from not being able to tweet?

Very weird -- so far, all that is currently known is that those accounts posted a bitcoin scam (which somehow people paid into -- /facepalm). At this point, the potential scam victims have given over around $200k ... which is ... not a lot for such a significant, public breach. I've heard suggestions that all DMs of verified accounts could be scraped or this was a warning to twitter (imagine this on election night). Definitely will be more to come from this one.

 

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Ha! Brad Parscale is out as Trump's campaign manager. I guess that fiasco in Oklahoma turned out to be taken more seriously by Trump than the WH would admit. He will remain head of data and digital services.

Presumably Kellyanne Conway steps up again?

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Jesus, this is going on in Portland right now. Apparently it is a patchwork of U.S. Marshals, Federal Protective Service, Customs & Border Protection & Homeland Security Investigations. How long is it going to take until they start actually disappearing people if they aren't already.

 

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8 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Somebody named Bill Stepien has taken over the role of campaign manager. Did Conway's husband tell her he'd divorce her if she did?

Huh. That's the guy who used to be Chris Christie's campaign manager and was implicated in the bridge closure scandal.

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4 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said:

Huh. That's the guy who used to be Chris Christie's campaign manager and was implicated in the bridge closure scandal.

So we're going from the Lewandowski period of very boisterous stupid person failing upward to the openly criminal Manafort clone. I really wish the plot points weren't so recycled.

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Not sure if this was shared already, but this is a chilling look into the poultry industry, examining this one chicken oligarch behind Mt Air chicken.  He's a major Trump donor and hardcore rightwing christianist behind the Jesus Fund.  He's like the rightwing equivalent of what the altright thinks George Soros is.  

And it's all through the lens of the Trump administration gutting worker protections and labor standards (including advancing the timeline a union gets to establish itself before it can be decertified) and how out of 6000 Covid related, labor-filed OSHA complaints only one resulted in a citation since this all began.  Covers the executive order establishing the meat industry as "essential" and how the Delaware governor declined to even get involved.  

I haven't read this yet I just listened to an interview with the journalist on fresh air on a long drive home.  Absolutely nuts.  The company isn't publicly traded, and is keeping workers on the dark about Covid in the workplace.  

I'd heard horror stories of how the meat industry treats workers but this shook me on a "not eating chicken I haven't killed myself" level.

One worker cut himself and was sent to the company health center.  They told him to go back to work, he asked to go to the ER, they said just go back to work.  He stuck it out for 9 days and then went to the ER.  He had a fucking open fracture.

And then you've got the OSHA and NLRB stuff which is just straight up regulatory capture.  Sorry is this is so rambling but it was draining to listen to and I'd encourage y'all tonchekc it out of you haven't already, either on Fresh Air or the New Yorker piece.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/07/20/how-trump-is-helping-tycoons-exploit-the-pandemic/amp

https://www.npr.org/programs/fresh-air/

It's the episode from today, the 15th

 

TLDR: The feds are helping greedy corporations prioritze profits over human life, as usual, news at 11, except this is super flagrant on all levels

 

 

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2 hours ago, The Great Unwashed said:

Jesus Christ, Dr. Fauci is like a goddamn real, true-blue American hero. I mean, I knew about his role in the AIDS crisis, but the guy was fighting on the front lines during Ebola to show his troops he had their backs.

At 74!

Also during the AIDS crisis in the 80s, he was one of the few people inside the big federal medical groups that showed much interest in actively working with the LGBTQ+ community and was considered an ally.

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