COVID 46 - Please disperse, nothing to see here!

[Heartofice]

It's hard to say there was ever a case for Ivermectin, the evidence for it has been so continuously weak seemingly forever. 

[Frey family reunion]

56 minutes ago, Week said:

Yup. 

 

It's an odd criticism from a South African doctor considering the US has 65% of it's population fully vaccinated while South Africa's same rate is 30%.  

A lot of these comparisons are total bullshit anyway, because each country has it's own deterination of "death by covid".  I think the proper metric to look at is excess mortality, because it tells a truer picture of what's going on.  

And if you look at the numbers the US is still pretty crappy but by no means the crappiest.  We fall somewhere between the averages of Western Europe and Eastern Europe.  

And South Africa while claiming to have a much lower death rate from Covid than the US oddly enough has a much higher excess mortality rate than the US during the years of the pandemic.  The US is 22% above it's expected mortality while South Africa in the same time period has an increase of 32%.

The final factor that no one is really taking into account is the percentage of the country's population over a certain age.  

 

 

[maarsen]

51 minutes ago, Week said:

Yes, the confluence of the previous three plus capitalism is a particularly caustic witch's brew that we created.

Also, another study on ivermectin:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/02/ivermectin-fails-another-covid-trial-as-study-links-use-to-gop-politics/

@mcbigski -- past time to finally let that one go.

Cheaper and ineffective  seems to trump cheap and effective.

[Zorral]

2 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

Number 4: rampant capitalism 

Number 5 -- the biggest number: the reichlicans made not wearing masks and not getting vaccinated a loyalty oath and a loyalty test, i.e. they made from covid a politicized bioweapon of domestic terrorism.

In the meantime, other vaccine news:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/23/world/covid-19-tests-cases-vaccine

Quote

 

. . . . Two doses of a new Covid vaccine that is based on a conventional approach achieved 100 percent efficacy against severe disease and hospitalizations, and it could be an effective booster after other Covid shots, the vaccine’s manufacturers announced on Wednesday.

The vaccine, made by the Europe-based pharmaceutical companies Sanofi and GSK, is one of four candidates that received billions of dollars for development from Operation Warp Speed, the Trump administration’s program to accelerate vaccines.

The new vaccine had an efficacy of 75 percent against moderate-to-severe disease. It showed 58 percent efficacy against symptomatic disease in its Phase 3 clinical trial. Although that number is lower than was observed for the mRNA vaccines made by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna in their initial trials, it is “in line with expected vaccine effectiveness in today’s environment dominated by variants of concern,” Sanofi and GSK said in a statement. The number of infections observed in the trial was small, however, and the efficacy may have been lower in a bigger trial.

Used as a booster dose after one of the other available coronavirus vaccines, the Sanofi-GSK shot increased antibody levels by 18- to 30-fold. The companies intend to submit the vaccine for authorization to regulatory authorities in the United States and Europe, they said on Wednesday.

Sanofi and GSK were expected to seek authorization for their vaccine last year, but shelved those plans after clinical trials showed disappointing results in older adults. They then developed a stronger version of the vaccine and tested it in new trials.

In laboratory studies, two doses of the Sanofi-GSK vaccine stimulated the production of more neutralizing antibodies than an approved mRNA vaccine, according to the companies. The data have not yet been published. The vaccine was safe and well-tolerated by adults of all ages, the companies said.

The best target for Covid vaccines is a protein called spike that covers the surface of the virus like a crown. While the mRNA vaccines contain the genetic instructions for making the protein, the Sanofi-GSK vaccine uses a slightly modified version of the protein itself to stimulate an immune response.

This is a commonly used approach for vaccines, and so may convince some people who have been hesitant to adopt the newer mRNA technology. Protein-based vaccines are also relatively inexpensive to manufacture and may not require the ultracold storage needed for the mRNA vaccines. Those features make them more likely candidates for rollout in African nations where vaccine coverage is still very low. . . . . 

 

 

[Heartofice]

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/iceland-lift-all-covid-19-restrictions-friday-media-reports-2022-02-23/
 

Iceland lift all restrictions but also says people should catch the virus as that’s the way out of the pandemic

Quote

"Widespread societal resistance to COVID-19 is the main route out of the epidemic," the ministry said in a statement, citing infectious disease authorities.

"To achieve this, as many people as possible need to be infected with the virus as the vaccines are not enough, even though they provide good protection against serious illness," it added.

 

[Frey family reunion]

1 hour ago, Heartofice said:

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/iceland-lift-all-covid-19-restrictions-friday-media-reports-2022-02-23/
 

Iceland lift all restrictions but also says people should catch the virus as that’s the way out of the pandemic

 

Bill Gates has already gone on record in stating that Omicron is in its own way a vaccine and is unfortunately doing a much better jof of reaching people than the vaccines did.

[Kalbear]

12 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Bill Gates has already gone on record in stating that Omicron is in its own way a vaccine and is unfortunately doing a much better jof of reaching people than the vaccines did.

Sure, but he's just mad he isn't implanting as many people with microchips

[Zorral]

Except, of course, a lot of people have died from getting omicron, got hospitalized and have severe long term consequences -- even some who are vaccinated, though not as many as those who aren't.

[Tywin et al.]

5 hours ago, Heartofice said:

It's hard to say there was ever a case for Ivermectin, the evidence for it has been so continuously weak seemingly forever. 

The case, at least here in the U.S., was simple to make: Does it piss off liberals and scientists? Yes? Great, full steam ahead!

13 minutes ago, Kalibuster said:

Sure, but he's just mad he isn't implanting as many people with microchips

His mistake was not calling them freedom chips.

[Frey family reunion]

7 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

 

His mistake was not calling them freedom chips.

I prefer freedom fries.

[Padraig]

5 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

It's an odd criticism from a South African doctor considering the US has 65% of it's population fully vaccinated while South Africa's same rate is 30%.  

In fairness to him, he was mainly comparing deaths from Omicron v Delta.

South Africa would have an excuse for having a bad Omicron experience since it was the first country affected.  The US had time to prepare.  The US also had plentiful access to vaccines (especially boosters, which the US have largely ignored).  South Africa, less so.  And the US's messaging is apparently poor regarding COVID.

Despite all that, the US had a bigger Omicron wave than Delta wave.   South Africa (and pretty much every other country in the world) found Delta deadlier.

It is worth noting also that South Africa is much more protected than it seems.  In the same way its excess mortality rate is high, the amount of people in South Africa that have had COVID is supposed to be north of 80%.  That partly compensates for their poor vaccination rate.

Now, I do think that the US was hit by Delta later than most of the rest of the world, so that its Delta wave flowed into its Omicron wave, so it is harder to seperate the two.  But at the same time, he definitely has a point.  Something has gone wrong for it to be such an outlier.

3 hours ago, Heartofice said:

Iceland lift all restrictions but also says people should catch the virus as that’s the way out of the pandemic

Iceland has had 78% of its total population fully vaccinated and 67% boosted.  I'm sure that those over 60 are close to 100% for both measures.  Iceland is not turning anti-vaccine.  It is simply suggesting that most people are very well protected, so getting COVID shouldn't harm them.  And in fact, will likely work as another "booster".

If I was 90 years old, I wouldn't rush off to the nearest nightclub but there is a certain amount of logic to what he said for other parts of the population.

4 hours ago, Zorral said:

In the meantime, other vaccine news:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/23/world/covid-19-tests-cases-vaccine

Interesting.  Its very similar to the Novavax vaccine, which is a little ahead of Sanofi/GSK.  So a lot of its advantages are already covered.  Novavax applied for approval in the US at the end of Jan and it has started deliveries in Europe this week (finally).

The one advantage Sanofi/GSK may have is manufacturing capability.  Novavax, which has never had an approved vaccine, has struggled with manufacturing in bulk.  Sanofi/GSK is huge and should be more capable from the start.  Although Novavax is relying (right now) on Indian manufacturers, who are well used to manufacturing vaccines.

The numbers seem fine for Sanofi at least.  Except for one thing.

Quote

The companies said early data indicated that their recombinant protein-based vaccine is 77% effective against symptomatic disease caused by the Delta variant. However, no specific data on the Omicron variant, the current dominant strain, was provided.

Details: The vaccine was found to be 75% effective against moderate infection and 57.9% effective against any symptomatic disease, according to the companies.

If it is 77% effective against Delta and 58% effective overall, something pushes that average down a lot. Now admittedly, no vaccine seems to be particularly good against Omicron after only 2 doses.  The third is the real test.

https://www.axios.com/sanofi-covid-vaccine-severe-disease-omicron-f7839845-584c-4458-92a0-20177ed02125.html

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

 

[The Anti-Targ]

16 hours ago, Week said:

Yes, the confluence of the previous three plus capitalism is a particularly caustic witch's brew that we created.

Also, another study on ivermectin:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/02/ivermectin-fails-another-covid-trial-as-study-links-use-to-gop-politics/

@mcbigski -- past time to finally let that one go.

I have to admit that it is not really much of a left/right thing here. We have covidiots of all stripes who buy into the ivermectin hype. The anti-mandate protest here is a mish mash of all sorts united by only one thing: being lead down the garden path into believing lies about the pandemic, vaccines and epidemiological measures that help to save lives.

While the polarisation is real, the partisanship has been mostly avoided because no political party has gone balls to the wall crazy about any of the fundamentals: get vaccinated, wear a mask, isolate if you have the infection. Oh, and COVID-19 exists and it kinda doesn't really matter at this point if it came from a lab or bats at a wet market, but it will important later on, when it's all under control, to learn some lessons about how to avoid a pandemic from this particular source.

[rotting sea cow]

13 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Bill Gates has already gone on record in stating that Omicron is in its own way a vaccine and is unfortunately doing a much better jof of reaching people than the vaccines did.

That guy is partially responsible of the problem due to his IP fanaticism. His foundation convinced Oxford to not make their vaccine open source and instead give the rights to selected providers. He has been adamant defending patents and other intellectual property regarding vaccines and medicines.

[The Anti-Targ]

Is there any other way to say it?

 

 

[Zorral]

 

Quote

 

Plummeting Covid-19 case counts across the United States are leading to lifted mask mandates and more conversations about steps toward normalcy -- but more people are dying of the coronavirus now than during most points of the pandemic.

More than 2,000 Covid-19 deaths have been reported in the United States each day for the past month. Average daily deaths are falling, but from a very high point. They dipped just below that mark in recent days, to about 1,900 on Monday; the federal holiday may have delayed reporting.

 

Before Omicron became the dominant coronavirus strain in the US, there were only about 100 other days when there were more than 2,000 Covid-19 deaths, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

The only other time that deaths have been this high for this long was during the first winter surge, before vaccines were available. The Omicron wave has also been deadlier for longer than the Delta surge: In September, when Delta was dominant, average daily deaths topped 2,000 for half as long. ....

 

 

 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/24/health/covid-deaths-now-younger-unvaccinated/index.html

[Heartofice]

UK ONS data finds risk of death from Omicron vs Delta is 67% lower after adjusting for other factors such as vaccination status. 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/causesofdeath/articles/comparingtheriskofdeathinvolvingcoronaviruscovid19byvariantengland/december2021

 

Quote

The risk of death involving COVID-19 was estimated to be 67% lower (hazard ratio: 0.33, 95% confidence interval: 0.24 to 0.45) following Omicron infection relative to Delta. This was after adjusting for sex, age, vaccination status, previous COVID-19 infection, calendar time, ethnicity, Index of Multiple Deprivation rank, household deprivation, university degree, keyworker status, country of birth, main language, region, disability, and the number of pre-existing conditions.

Those under 70 having an even greater reduction in risk of death from Omicron than Delta, and the same seems to be for males.

[The Anti-Targ]

Funny, when I click on the .xlsx box to download data I get an inflation rate attribution spreadsheet. It would be hard to independently estimate COVID deaths from either variant using that data.

I don't know whether that is a better than expect reduction in death risk or not. Delta was regarded as more deadly than og COVID, so what's the difference between og COVID and omicron? I don't know if I really trust a single number with so many variables needing to be controlled for. While you can use statistical techniques to come up with a single number, the question is whether that number really has much meaning.

Look at the 70+ age bar and the 95% confidence bar stretched all the way from -80% to +25% risk, which renders the statistics pretty bloody useless for that age group and makes the -67% totally meaningless.

I would prefer to see a more compartmentalised risk list based on immune status, age and comorbidities (even if just present / absent) at least. That would actually give me a decent idea of the difference in risk for the people I now, and for myself. For pretty much everyone I know I can guarantee the 67% figure is wrong, for some it will be higher for some it will be lower.

[The Anti-Targ]

Latest on our freedumb protest at parliament. COVID is rife, plenty of people sick, but the tweeters inside the protest movement are claiming it's govt using radiation and 5G to mess with people's health. Telling sick people to go for a walk to get out of range of the radiation/5G signal. Nice, spreading idiocy and COVID (you know they won't be wearing masks) to the innocent people of Wellington.

[IheartIheartTesla]

Work has relaxed mask restrictions (here in Michigan), and is slowly allowing in person meetings, so it would seem like some sort of corner has been turned. Keep in mind they have been very cautious over the entire course of the pandemic, so this is encouraging news (well, for me at least).