Ukraine: Holding

[briantw]

2 minutes ago, DMC said:

While I whole-heartedly agree with Wert and Kal that an offramp for Putin should absolutely be provided that doesn't necessitate regime change, I do think this "he'll die otherwise" rationale is overdramatic and a bit unfounded.  They removed Khrushchev without any violence, I don't see any reason to assume it'll be off with his head if he capitulates.

No doubt.  Everyone should absolutely be open to a solution where Putin backs down, maybe gets a concession or two from Ukraine, the war ends, and we slowly relax sanctions so long as Putin operates in good faith.

But, of course, if someone in the Russian chain of command just wants to shoot the fucker, that works too.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Honestly if Crimea stays in Russian hands I can think of worse results given that most Crimeans see themselves as Russian not Ukrainian.  I hate the way it happened… but… if it ends the killing… that’s not a bad result.

[Kalbear]

Just now, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Honestly if Crimea stays in Russian hands I can think of worse results given that most Crimeans see themselves as Russian not Ukrainian.  I hate the way it happened… but… if it ends the killing… that’s not a bad result.

Yep. Provided that Ukraine is good with it, great.

I think that's also something that folks need to figure out for themselves that I tried to say before - it is very likely that a peaceful outcome here will result in Russia getting something. And that is almost certainly a good thing, especially to Ukraine. It isn't awesome - getting bullies and tyrants anything is not good. But the cost of that 'not good' thing there is likely significantly better than having Ukraine wrecked, tens of thousands dead, millions displaced, a massive refugee crisis and humanitarian crisis in winter and billions of dollars in rebuilding. 

That's a choice that Ukraine has to make for themselves if they're allowed to, and I intend to support it. I am not going to tell them to continue fighting until the last person or else the terrorists invaders will have won. I might feel differently if it were my troops fighting and dying, or my country - but it ain't mine, and I'm not going to root for other people to die because it fits my realpolitik best.

[Spockydog]

27 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

World War 3 starts when NATO invades Russia.

Sadly, I think we're already in it.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

7 minutes ago, Kalibuster said:

It is not hyperbolic to say that it will also start if Putin is given the choice of killing all Ukrainians or being tried for war crimes or worse. 

If Putin believes that his choices are killing a whole lot of people or dying in a jail, I can guarantee you what he'll pick, and it won't be 'coming to justice'. 

Why does that have to be the only other option? He can be sent home to clean up his own mess. That doesn't mean he's going to be jailed, tried for war crimes and find himself in the ground in short order. Putin can go home, claim Ukraine isn't joining NATO, the world saw Russia means business and then try to pick up the pieces of what's left. 

Again, he did this for no real reason and I don't think he should get his hand held because he fucked up, getting numerous people killed in the process.

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Having to crawl back to Russia with his tail between his legs? So here's the thing - the problem with being a dictator for life is that there is only one way to end the dictatorship. Putting Putin in a position where he is disgraced, outcast, and the Russian populace is in open revolt against him is not going to end the way you want it to.

Again, you're assuming an extreme reaction. That's not necessarily going to be the case. While it was heartwarming to see Russians protest at great personal risk, the numbers were overall kind of small and don't suggest a massive upheaval happening in Russia. 

And frankly, if Putin is overthrown tomorrow or dies in 20 years, the aftermath probably won't look great.

10 minutes ago, DMC said:

While I whole-heartedly agree with Wert and Kal that an offramp for Putin should absolutely be provided that doesn't necessitate regime change, I do think this "he'll die otherwise" rationale is overdramatic and a bit unfounded.  They removed Khrushchev without any violence, I don't see any reason to assume it'll be off with his head if he capitulates.

I still don't buy that Putin having to backdown automatically means regime change will happen the day after. It's certainly a possibility, but I think it's probably pretty low at this point. It would probably be a lot more likely if this drags on for a while with nothing to show for it which is why telling him to leave now might allow him the chance to stabilize things at home.

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I still don't buy that Putin having to backdown automatically means regime change will happen the day after.

I don't either, but it doesn't mean you have to take a hardline if - instead - offering him some face saving offramp will do the trick.  The objective is to end the conflict and extract a credible commitment Putin will keep his word to desist, not to insist upon regime change or anything else relating to internal Russian politics. 

Plus, of course, as mentioned this is entirely Ukraine's decision.

[Kalbear]

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

Why does that have to be the only other option? He can be sent home to clean up his own mess. That doesn't mean he's going to be jailed, tried for war crimes and find himself in the ground in short order. Putin can go home, claim Ukraine isn't joining NATO, the world saw Russia means business and then try to pick up the pieces of what's left. 

Again, he did this for no real reason and I don't think he should get his hand held because he fucked up, getting numerous people killed in the process.

I think that you grossly underestimate Putin's willingness to escalate things further, and you overestimate him being able to accept shame and defeat. While he is not as flamboyant or unhinged as Trump, this is a person who hosts hockey games where he can score a bunch of points, or shows pics of him riding a horse half-naked. How do you think someone like that is going to handle being humiliated?

And how do you think his country is going to handle that?

I don't have to personally believe that he'll be killed, any more than I have to believe that Ukraine is at risk of getting nuclear weapons or that Russia needs to solve the Ukrainian problem. All I have to do is be able to empathize with Putin.

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

Again, you're assuming an extreme reaction. That's not necessarily going to be the case. While it was heartwarming to see Russians protest at great personal risk, the numbers were overall kind of small and don't suggest a massive upheaval happening in Russia. 

So far. It's day two of people not being able to use credit cards, buy groceries, do anything worthwhile online or go anywhere. 

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

And frankly, if Putin is overthrown tomorrow or dies in 20 years, the aftermath probably won't look great. 

There's a big difference between having something of a succession plan and being forced out in terms of the aftermath. There is a big difference between how Gorbachev went out and how Yeltsin did. 

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

I still don't buy that Putin having to backdown automatically means regime change will happen the day after. It's certainly a possibility, but I think it's probably pretty low at this point. It would probably be a lot more likely if this drags on for a while with nothing to show for it which is why telling him to leave now might allow him the chance to stabilize things at home.

Putin having to back down is not the same thing as him leaving with his tail between his legs. 

And the more this drags on, the more dangerous it gets for everyone.

[The Dragon Demands]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Something that has puzzled me on this is how Russia spent vast sums of money and effort starting as early as 2012 to infiltrate overseas powers and voting systems, sowing discord and using propaganda, helping Trump win his election, helping Brexit happen, sticking a wedge between Hungary and the rest of the EU (Poland as well, to a lesser extent), and they've completely blown a decade's work in the space of a week.

"Sanity has its advantages"

How could the Lannisters spend 15 years solidifying their hold on the throne from within...only for Cersei to blow it all in less than a year? Because she's an utter narcissist who surrounds herself with cronies and yes-men.

How could the Nazis spend over a decade re-militarizing Germany....only for Hitler to indecisively flip-flop on objectives between Moscow and Stalingrad, then say "F*ck it, we'll hit Moscow, Stalingrad, AND Leningrad simultaneously!"...over the objections of his generals that "we don't physically have enough fuel to do that"?

[Kalbear]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Something that has puzzled me on this is how Russia spent vast sums of money and effort starting as early as 2012 to infiltrate overseas powers and voting systems, sowing discord and using propaganda, helping Trump win his election, helping Brexit happen, sticking a wedge between Hungary and the rest of the EU (Poland as well, to a lesser extent), and they've completely blown a decade's work in the space of a week.

To this end, this is a great thread on all the things Putin just got for Russia

 

[Clueless Northman]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Putting Putin's back up against the wall should be avoided in favour of giving him an off-ramp from the crisis that he can sell as a victory back home, and then letting the Russians sort it the hell out afterwards when fingers are not so hot on buttons.

Good to see that level of sanity, it's a relief. One has to be realistic about these things, and mankind's survival. At times, I despair and have the feeling many Western leaders are losing it just like Putin might have.

50 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Ukraine has contacted China's government directly and got a call with the Foreign Minister himself, who expressed support for Ukraine's territory integrity and confirms he is considering a request to mediate a ceasefire with Russia. China is extremely concerned about the fate of 6,000 Chinese citizens in Ukraine, not all of whom have been accounted for.

China playing the role of peace broker would be an insanely big diplomatic coup, I think, one which would give them a shit-ton of soft power. From a veiledly interested point of view, I'd say the West should try to talk to Moscow as well, we can't be left out of this - of course I suppose they're already doing this.

46 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Russia will need to get something out of this they can spin as a positive, no matter how pitifully ludicrous that is to the rest of the world. Even Ukraine agreeing to a 10-year moratorium on not joining NATO and recognising Crimea as part of Russia might just be enough.

Could be it ends like this, but I'm going to be so pissed off, not because it's a loss for Ukraine, or Russia isn't clearly beaten, but because I still have that foolish notion that some similar deal might have been achieved without that fucking war, had Ukraine, US and Russia discussed for a few more months, well make that until late 2022. Of course, since other timelines are unknown, it's possible that a not-total war on Ukraine might be a way for Russia to show it's serious and can still bite a bit, and without this war, a worse one - say Putin actually attacking NATO in Baltics or Poland - would've been way worse consequences. But still, a terrible waste of life, terrible economic damages all around (and specially in Ukraine and to a lesser extent to Russian civilian bystanders).

Of course, since we often talk about how Putin would be at risk at home if he'd face a genuine defeat, there was the other scenario that Zelensky making such concessions just because of pressure and threat of invasion would also be at risk. At least, if these are the concessions Ukraine has to do (maybe with some kind of updated Minsk 2 giving a bit more autonomy to provinces), Zelensky won't be blamed by many Ukrainians and shouldn't fear being killed by hardliners - if those are the terms to end this fucking mess, Ukrainian people should be very proud of their stand against the onslaught, their resistance, their spirit, and that's a legacy that's not going to disappear next month.

 

That said, I have to plan for all outcomes. Time for me to ponder the ultimate contingency, just to be sure and not to be stuck like a deer in headlights. In this case, I'm probably quickly walking to the hill behind and look at the fireworks and the end of all things, instead of going into the bunker. Sure, my best friend told me "I'm going to get you and drag you kicking into the shelter", but I don't think she'd cross half the city when the alert will sound.

[Kalbear]

Also, of all things one of Russia's staunchest allies is being accused of "Ukrainifying", which sounds like something I'd call my plague inc fungal invasion

 

 

[Mlle. Zabzie]

Lord love a duck, I think I have agreed with like 95% of what @Kalibuster has written in the last few pages.  Perhaps we are at end times.

But truly a face saving off ramp is what is needed now….I do think that Zelenskyy is fighting like someone who knows he is dead (doesn’t really matter what happens at this point - he’s a dead man), and Putin’s only way out of the Kremlin is in a body bag.  He’s a Tsar by another name.  Tsar’s don’t abdicate unless they are forced to by their German wife and then killed by an Orlov….

So, best case scenario for the world is that Putin has an off-ramp and rules Russia for the next decade hopefully with some gates around his true crazy.

[The Anti-Targ]

I think Borat has made Kazakhstan invasion-proof. Putin should really pivot to one of the other former Soviet Stans to reclaim for the glorious empire. Though they probably have less potassium.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

14 minutes ago, The Dragon Demands said:

"Sanity has its advantages"

How could the Lannisters spend 15 years solidifying their hold on the throne from within...only for Cersei to blow it all in less than a year? Because she's an utter narcissist who surrounds herself with cronies and yes-men.

How could the Nazis spend over a decade re-militarizing Germany....only for Hitler to indecisively flip-flop on objectives between Moscow and Stalingrad, then say "F*ck it, we'll hit Moscow, Stalingrad, AND Leningrad simultaneously!"...over the objections of his generals that "we don't physically have enough fuel to do that"?

This is more like Tywin growing Lannister power and wasting it in an attack on the Reach because they are seeking an alliance with the Stormlands.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

19 minutes ago, DMC said:

I don't either, but it doesn't mean you have to take a hardline if - instead - offering him some face saving offramp will do the trick.  The objective is to end the conflict and extract a credible commitment Putin will keep his word to desist, not to insist upon regime change or anything else relating to internal Russian politics. 

Plus, of course, as mentioned this is entirely Ukraine's decision.

Yeah, I agree this is ultimately Ukraine's decision. 

That said, is it even possible to get a credible commitment from Putin at this point? His word is worthless, and it probably should be seen as such for the rest of his time in power. No one can believe a thing he says, which makes taking a softer approach harder to swallow. 

21 minutes ago, Kalibuster said:

I think that you grossly underestimate Putin's willingness to escalate things further, and you overestimate him being able to accept shame and defeat. While he is not as flamboyant or unhinged as Trump, this is a person who hosts hockey games where he can score a bunch of points, or shows pics of him riding a horse half-naked. How do you think someone like that is going to handle being humiliated?

Not well, but we can't shape our policies based on his fragile ego.

And no, I'm not underestimating his willingness to escalate things, I just don't think that's going to go well for him. Personally I don't think his nuclear threats are credible and would be much more worried about a mass cyber attack on our energy grids (I have a general understanding of how that would work here, no clue how it would impact Europe). 

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And how do you think his country is going to handle that?

Idk and I don't think anyone can accurately say. 

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I don't have to personally believe that he'll be killed, any more than I have to believe that Ukraine is at risk of getting nuclear weapons or that Russia needs to solve the Ukrainian problem. All I have to do is be able to empathize with Putin.

That would be a mistake. 

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There's a big difference between having something of a succession plan and being forced out in terms of the aftermath. There is a big difference between how Gorbachev went out and how Yeltsin did. 

Sure, but when he leaves, however that happens, will create a massive power vacuum and I'd be more worried about Russia's nukes then than now.

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Putin having to back down is not the same thing as him leaving with his tail between his legs. 

And the more this drags on, the more dangerous it gets for everyone.

Depends on how you read it. Backing down means he gets very minor concessions and at that point it's splitting hairs. 

I do agree though this gets more dangerous for everyone the longer it drags on because that probably increases the chances of instability in the Kremlin. 

37 minutes ago, Spockydog said:

Sadly, I think we're already in it.

Nah, we're not there yet. However, the gap between Ferdinand being assassinated and WW1 starting took less than two months, though right now Russia lacks the ability to muster a credible force to start such a war unless you think Putin is going to be the man who blew up the world. 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

25 minutes ago, Clueless Northman said:

Good to see that level of sanity, it's a relief. One has to be realistic about these things, and mankind's survival. At times, I despair and have the feeling many Western leaders are losing it just like Putin might have.

China playing the role of peace broker would be an insanely big diplomatic coup, I think, one which would give them a shit-ton of soft power. From a veiledly interested point of view, I'd say the West should try to talk to Moscow as well, we can't be left out of this - of course I suppose they're already doing this.

Could be it ends like this, but I'm going to be so pissed off, not because it's a loss for Ukraine, or Russia isn't clearly beaten, but because I still have that foolish notion that some similar deal might have been achieved without that fucking war, had Ukraine, US and Russia discussed for a few more months, well make that until late 2022. Of course, since other timelines are unknown, it's possible that a not-total war on Ukraine might be a way for Russia to show it's serious and can still bite a bit, and without this war, a worse one - say Putin actually attacking NATO in Baltics or Poland - would've been way worse consequences. But still, a terrible waste of life, terrible economic damages all around (and specially in Ukraine and to a lesser extent to Russian civilian bystanders).

Of course, since we often talk about how Putin would be at risk at home if he'd face a genuine defeat, there was the other scenario that Zelensky making such concessions just because of pressure and threat of invasion would also be at risk. At least, if these are the concessions Ukraine has to do (maybe with some kind of updated Minsk 2 giving a bit more autonomy to provinces), Zelensky won't be blamed by many Ukrainians and shouldn't fear being killed by hardliners - if those are the terms to end this fucking mess, Ukrainian people should be very proud of their stand against the onslaught, their resistance, their spirit, and that's a legacy that's not going to disappear next month.

 

That said, I have to plan for all outcomes. Time for me to ponder the ultimate contingency, just to be sure and not to be stuck like a deer in headlights. In this case, I'm probably quickly walking to the hill behind and look at the fireworks and the end of all things, instead of going into the bunker. Sure, my best friend told me "I'm going to get you and drag you kicking into the shelter", but I don't think she'd cross half the city when the alert will sound.

Are you in Ukraine?

[DMC]

12 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

I do think that Zelenskyy is fighting like someone who knows he is dead (doesn’t really matter what happens at this point - he’s a dead man), and Putin’s only way out of the Kremlin is in a body bag.  He’s a Tsar by another name.  Tsar’s don’t abdicate unless they are forced to by their German wife and then killed by an Orlov….

Gotta say I'm quite uncomfortable with these depictions.  In Putin/Russia's case, it almost comes off as a bad stereotype which, again, isn't well-founded in the recent history of Russian/USSR regime change.  In Zelenskyy's case, I think casting him as someone who "knows he is dead" almost undermines his heroism and bravery.  It makes him seem like Eomer chanting "Death!" as he charges Pelennor Fields rather than the very savvy and considered tactician Zelenskyy has proven to be.

5 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

That said, is it even possible to get a credible commitment from Putin at this point? His word is worthless, and it probably should be seen as such for the rest of his time in power. No one can believe a thing he says, which makes taking a softer approach harder to swallow. 

I mean, obviously when it's someone like Putin or Trump even pen to paper (let alone their word) is relatively meaningless, but if it ends hostilities and entails a public commitment, you take what you can get.

[Week]

This crisis feels like it needs to wrap up in days not even weeks. Seems like peace, brokered by China, might be the fastest best solution for everyone involved. A compromise that kind of sucks for everyone but is better than any alternative.

 

[Maithanet]

 - The West needs to make clear that they will remove sanctions and thaw out frozen assets quickly upon Russia signing a peace treaty.  If they just linger in place as a putative response to Russian aggression then sanctions won't help bring peace at all.   Even if sanctions disappeared tomorrow, the damage to the Russian economy is already significant.  And by next week, that will be even more true. 

 - Nobody really knows how Putin is reacting to the debacle that is unfolding thus far.  Essentially every one of his war aims and long term geostrategic goals have been set back, in some cases permanently.  Germany rearmament, Ukrainian nationalism, Western unity, crippling sanctions, and poor military results, it's a disaster for Russia.  I understand people wanting to rake Putin over the coals for bringing war and destruction on such a scale.  But this isn't the time for armchair psychology that you "think" Putin won't do anything crazy if backed into a corner.  When you're talking about nuclear war you need to be sure.  Even a 5% chance that Putin lashes out with nuclear bombs is absolutely horrifying, and if he is in a position where his empire is collapsing around him, I have trouble believing the odds would be that low.  Thus, an off ramp is key.

 - If the US makes clear they'll remove sanctions (Europe will follow the US lead here), Ukraine agrees to give up Crimea and a 10 year pledge not to join NATO, and China gives a gentle push that this is the best offer you're going to get, then I think peace relatively soon is possible.  But I don't know that Russia/Putin is ready to accept that, and might just double down instead.  In which case we are going to have a great many more dead people, and the continuing prospects of this war escalating into something even worse. 

[Gorn]

In what might be very important news, Russian marines (810th naval infantry brigade) have basically mutinied. Yesterday, they refused to perform amphibious landing in Odessa and the navy ships carrying them had to go back to Crimea. Today, we have this: