Varys, Illyrio, GC and the "Plan"

[Jon Fossoway]

They had an objective, not that much of a planned path to achieve it. There were many factors that could steer things one way or another. I think GRRM projected himself on that famous line of a golden company mercenary about 'the fat man''s plan. Taht's mostly the itinerary of the books.

[three-eyed monkey]

2 hours ago, Nevets said:

When Shadrich had his conversation with Brienne, Varys was still Master of Whispers or had just left.  The reward for Sansa was most likely offered in that capacity.  I don't know why he would be interested on his own account; Sansa's nothing to him.  And since Tyrion is still alive, using her as marriage bait would be difficult, even if she could be found and was interested.

Varys may not have interest in Sansa, other than assessing that Sansa has value to Littlefinger and wanting to scupper whatever plan he might have for her.

Yeah, the gold reward probably was put up by the crown. That's better for Varys as he doesn't have to pay with his own coin.

However, Varys trained mice back in Essos, before he moved on to little birds in King's Landing. The mice were orphans, the small and clever ones. Shardrich the Mad Mouse is small and clever. He still might be just a random hedge knight looking for the reward Varys was offering. Either way, if he takes away one of Littlefinger's pieces then I think Varys will be happy. 

[chrisdaw]

The OP is correct though I've not seen people talking like that was the plan recently.

Varys and Illyrio need swords - a bulk army. Selling Dany to Drogo gets them this in theory but with minimal control over their army, low motivation on Drogo's part and the sea crossing issue. Viserys is an irrelevancy, having Robert assassinate Dany likely would have fixed their Drogo motivation problem as the attempt did.

[astarkchoice]

5 hours ago, chrisdaw said:

The OP is correct though I've not seen people talking like that was the plan recently.

Varys and Illyrio need swords - a bulk army. Selling Dany to Drogo gets them this in theory but with minimal control over their army, low motivation on Drogo's part and the sea crossing issue. Viserys is an irrelevancy, having Robert assassinate Dany likely would have fixed their Drogo motivation problem as the attempt did.

To be fair i think drogo had 0 interest in putting part of his hard won force under an idiot like viserys, bloodriders wouldnt follow him. He was probably gonna intimidate cities for loot and mass slave sell until he can give viserys like 10-20k  sellswords

[John Suburbs]

20 hours ago, Nevets said:

You write very entertaining fan fiction, but I see no reason to take it seriously, much less believe it.

Proxy depositors?  What proxy depositors?  I don't recall reading about them.  Come to think of it, does the bank even take deposits from the general public?  I expect they might handle transactions and provide safekeeping for local businesses and the like, but these would be known to them.

From what I gather, the Bank is financed by investors, called keyholders.  It does not appear to be financed by demand deposits.

The iron coin is valuable because it is produced in a specific quantity and generally accepted as a means of exchange for goods and services.  Kind of like the dollar, which everyone takes.  We have no idea who issues it.  It could the Iron Bank.  It could also be the local merchants association, the Sealord, or the Ironmongers Guild for all we know.  It's small change, so I'm pretty sure someone will back it.

What evidence do you have that Littlefinger even knows Illyrio, much less is conspiring with him?

There is one major character in Braavos and she is there for her own purposes.  Braavos is a convenient location to learn in and take a break.  There is one Faceless Man in Westeros, and he's gathering information.  Braavos and the rest of the Free Cities aren't that important and aren't going to be.

Eh, buy it, don't buy it. Your choice.

[John Suburbs]

19 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

-one debt loss one time wont sink a bank , as no one else is escaping paying the same way  nor will merchants and buisness not still need loans and accounts etc. People will still need to borrow money and even then jsut becsuse  say one guy borrows from a mafioso and escaped into thin air doesnt mean everyone can do the same

-none of those institutions would fall due to their debt..shit kevan casualy  says the lannisters may pay off the whole thing themselves. 

-no we clearly hear arya listening in to faceless men reporting worldwide events, aryas training even as an acolyte is to discover 3 secrets per day and jacen we know goes to oldtown to recover a mysterious key...they watch world events of note carefully and clearly have their own agenda, theres 0 way theyd allow a vast secret org that can easily be infiltrated by them exist without scrutinty.

 

-nope theres many other free cities with non precious metal coins and AGAIN as with all pre modern currency itd be backed with gold etc The ib and bravos would be more insulated to the collapse of slavery as one is a non slave orientated economy and the other a bank with vast diverse portfolio

-righr but its already at a point where everyone who wsnts slaves has as many as they need..its not a market in pentos with a vast  untapped ceiling

-again the ib wouldnt fall also the currency is backed by gold , theres many other banks and as a multi cultural city theres vast amounts of other currencies floating around too as well as precious metals stones and goods before we talk direct bartering. The navy will still sail as they can still be paid in numerous other ways from other free city coinage to gold etc

-theres multiple ones with bigger navies and their economies are fine. The piddling iron throne is one of the most powerful positons in all planetos and master of coin is a licence for a very wealthy merchant lile ilyrio to move up to lannister,hightower, tyrell , yi ti  wealth levels etc

-no hes providing cash and orphans..varys is the one teaching them spycraft

-that make 0 sense..if varys and LF were on the same team for ilyrio having them work together would be far more productive to the goal u think they have.

-master of coin as lf shows when used right is a licence to ger filthy rich

-but you have stated he got in touch with lf as a boy and knew hed be master of coin somehow!

As I've explained, it's not one debt loss. It's the ensuing panic that does in the bank. Yes, people and businesses and merchants and everyone still need money, but it's gone and it's not coming back. That's the whole point.

Maybe the Lanns can pay it all off, maybe not. That's why Illyrio is plotting to displace them.

Yes, worldwide events, not the innermost secrets of literally everyone on the planet. Arya is an acolyte and she reports what she hears out in public. This is a far cry from divulging secrets. That FM are not all-knowing, all-seeing. Give it up.

What cities use non-precious coins. Name one. And if they did and someone were to crash their bank, they'd be in the same boat as Braavos.

If everybody who wants slaves has as many as they need, there would be no slave trade.

The currency is backed by gold, and when the gold is gone the currency is backed by nothing. It becomes worth only the value of what it's made of, which in this case is less than copper, a lot less. There are not "vast amounts" of other currencies, just what people are carrying at the time, and this is the merest fraction of the wealth they keep in the Iron Bank, before it collapsed and all that gold disappeared.

No, it would not make sense for V and L to work together because they both have differennt objectives. Varys is a do-gooder who only wants to save Westeros while Petyr and Illyrio of profit-mongers who only want to enrich themselves. Varys would never sign on to a plan that destroys the realm just to make the two of them rich. Be serious.

No, I never said Illyrio got in touch with Petyr as a boy. We don't know when they met. But when they did hash this out it was pretty solid: leverage Petyr's hold of Lysa to gain control the Gulltown; pad his receipts to make him look like a financial genius; repeat in King's Landing to make him the obvious choice for MoC . . .  This is what it means to ripen the fruit.

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

When Daenerys VI Game 54 opens, Viserys has already been "crowned," but interestingly Illyrio does not yet know this. Presumably Jorah would have sent word back, but not before Varys's would-be assassin departed with the caravan out of Pentos.

Daenerys attempts to persade Drogo into winning the Iron Throne for their son, but Drogo refuses, expressing no desire to cross the Narrow Sea. My guess is that Drogo believes that his end of the bargain is moot now that Viserys is dead. 

Before Daenerys leaves her hollow hill for the market, she summons Jorah and complains that Her sun and stars is refusing to give their son the Seven Kingdoms, to which Jorah replies, "Have patience, Princess. Do not make your brother's mistake. We will go home. I promise you." 

I am growing more confident that Jorah is aware of the fat man's plan, or at least a significant part of it. 

[John Suburbs]

21 hours ago, Nevets said:

You write very entertaining fan fiction, but I see no reason to take it seriously, much less believe it.

Proxy depositors?  What proxy depositors?  I don't recall reading about them.  Come to think of it, does the bank even take deposits from the general public?  I expect they might handle transactions and provide safekeeping for local businesses and the like, but these would be known to them.

From what I gather, the Bank is financed by investors, called keyholders.  It does not appear to be financed by demand deposits.

The iron coin is valuable because it is produced in a specific quantity and generally accepted as a means of exchange for goods and services.  Kind of like the dollar, which everyone takes.  We have no idea who issues it.  It could the Iron Bank.  It could also be the local merchants association, the Sealord, or the Ironmongers Guild for all we know.  It's small change, so I'm pretty sure someone will back it.

What evidence do you have that Littlefinger even knows Illyrio, much less is conspiring with him?

There is one major character in Braavos and she is there for her own purposes.  Braavos is a convenient location to learn in and take a break.  There is one Faceless Man in Westeros, and he's gathering information.  Braavos and the rest of the Free Cities aren't that important and aren't going to be.

Of course you don't hear about proxy depositors because this plan hasn't been exposed yet. But this is how it would work.

Yes, the bank takes deposits. What do you think banks do? It's the easiest way to make money: take deposits, loan the money, collect it back with interest, and pay the depositors a portion of that interest. It's amazing that this even needs to be explained. The keyholders are the descendants of the original founders of the bank. And if they are "investors" rather than depositors, the result is the same: their money is gone.

The iron coin is made of iron. It has no intrinsic value other than the value of iron, which is common and abundant throughout the world. It only has value as a currency because people believe they can trade it for previous metals if they need to. But if the bank fails, there is no one willing to do that, so the coin becomes worthless. That's how it is with proxy currencies, like the dollar.

I've given you the evidence for I+L before, but here is the abridged version again: Petyr is the only blind spot in the vast spy network that Illyrio has provided, but he is completely unfazed by this despite knowing that Petyr is mucking with the finances of the realm and is directly responsible for events moving too quickly in Westeros. Then it is Petyr who convinced the small council not to send an FM after Dany but have Robert publicly announce her killer will get a lordship, and when the dope mucks it up -- just as Petyr predicted -- it reignited Drogo's plan to invade Westeros, just as Illyrio wanted.

There are multiple major players interacting with Braavos, and the Iron Bank in particular, in Westeros. It is a key element in the plot.

 

20 hours ago, Nevets said:

@John Suburbs 

Are you kidding me?!?  I certainly hope so. 

Braavos and the Free Cities don't really exist.  They were created by George R.R. Martin.  So yes, they absolutely do what they do for the enjoyment of readers, and for no other reason.  If you haven't figured that out by now, no wonder you come up with such crazy nonsensical theories.

Now GRRM does try to keep things sensible and within reason, but absolute realism is not required.  Nor expected.

Um, none of this really exists, including Westeros and the Iron Throne and all the characters. But no, in the story, none of them are doing what they do for the enjoyment of the readers of the book they are in. They are living their lives and making decisions for themselves and their interests. If you haven't figure that out, no wonder you can't see the story for what it is.

GRRM keeps things sensible, and he's laid all the groundwork for the collapse of the Iron Bank.

But again, buy it, don't buy it . . .

[astarkchoice]

35 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

As I've explained, it's not one debt loss. It's the ensuing panic that does in the bank. Yes, people and businesses and merchants and everyone still need money, but it's gone and it's not coming back. That's the whole point.

Maybe the Lanns can pay it all off, maybe not. That's why Illyrio is plotting to displace them.

Yes, worldwide events, not the innermost secrets of literally everyone on the planet. Arya is an acolyte and she reports what she hears out in public. This is a far cry from divulging secrets. That FM are not all-knowing, all-seeing. Give it up.

What cities use non-precious coins. Name one. And if they did and someone were to crash their bank, they'd be in the same boat as Braavos.

If everybody who wants slaves has as many as they need, there would be no slave trade.

The currency is backed by gold, and when the gold is gone the currency is backed by nothing. It becomes worth only the value of what it's made of, which in this case is less than copper, a lot less. There are not "vast amounts" of other currencies, just what people are carrying at the time, and this is the merest fraction of the wealth they keep in the Iron Bank, before it collapsed and all that gold disappeared.

No, it would not make sense for V and L to work together because they both have differennt objectives. Varys is a do-gooder who only wants to save Westeros while Petyr and Illyrio of profit-mongers who only want to enrich themselves. Varys would never sign on to a plan that destroys the realm just to make the two of them rich. Be serious.

No, I never said Illyrio got in touch with Petyr as a boy. We don't know when they met. But when they did hash this out it was pretty solid: leverage Petyr's hold of Lysa to gain control the Gulltown; pad his receipts to make him look like a financial genius; repeat in King's Landing to make him the obvious choice for MoC . . .  This is what it means to ripen the fruit.

 

There would be no panic the bizzare chain of events you describe wouldnt cause a bank run nor are they even the only bank there! 

Yes they and all the kthers can take the hit, the faith has a bigger part of the debt ans they write it off like nothing

Not everyone no...but a super wealthy merchant with ties to khals , triachs and golden company and his best friend who runs the 2nd best spy network on planetos of course theyl look into !!! 

You can literaly see the coins of free cities on the wiki, clearly not all gold or silver dude

My point was there isnt a huge difference, if pentos could openly buy and sell slaves itd be a boost in some ways (slave prices would prob fall mind) but not a giant state altering economic shift 

Theres 0 reason the gold would all disapear or that the iron bank have all the gold/silver/precious stones  in bravos , or that there isnt vsst amounts of other currencies give they are arguably THE naval trade superpower and again theres other banks too...soo many flaws with this idea man

Nope varys wants to put faegon on the throne at any price thus isnt a do gooder in the slightest !!! part of his plan is allowing ilyrio to bebmaster of coin and thus enrich himself

Lotta .ifs sorta have to happen there 

[Frey family reunion]

On 4/17/2023 at 4:42 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

Is this what Illyrio and Varys intended? Keep in mind that when the bargain was struck, Viserys was alive. When the assassination was ordered but set up to be foiled, Viserys was alive. When Drogo vowed to conquer the Seven Kingdoms for Rhaego, Viserys was already dead. 

In any event, this foreseeable vow by Drogo gives rise to the idea that the fat man's plan was to have Drogo break the Seven Kingdoms, and then have Aegon come in and mop up the mess. 

I like your post and I agree with almost everything you said.  But I think it doesn’t address the OP’s initial concern, which from what I can tell is how to reconcile this with the Golden Company’s belief that they were supposed to join with Viserys and the Khalasar, and Viserys was supposed to vouch for “Aegon’s” legitimacy.

I think the simple answer is that Illyrio and Varys only told the Golden Company what they needed to hear to agree to take part in an invasion.  If you tell them that they would end up also having to fight the Dothraki maybe they balk.  

But the OP does raise a valid concern.

[astarkchoice]

1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

I like your post and I agree with almost everything you said.  But I think it doesn’t address the OP’s initial concern, which from what I can tell is how to reconcile this with the Golden Company’s belief that they were supposed to join with Viserys and the Khalasar, and Viserys was supposed to vouch for “Aegon’s” legitimacy.

I think the simple answer is that Illyrio and Varys only told the Golden Company what they needed to hear to agree to take part in an invasion.  If you tell them that they would end up also having to fight the Dothraki maybe they balk.  

But the OP does raise a valid concern.

Agreed it sorta fits that theyd tell the golden company what they wanna hear

Saying 10-50k dothraki will be backing you sorta sounds better than  what seems like their actual plan of

'' you boys sit tight  my bestie the  eunuch spymaster will stir up civil war so the current regime bleeds its strength, varys will also  felt out all the genuine  targ loyalists in westeros by then and on his way out the door will use secret passages to  assasinate every competent member of the current regime leadership....then wel invade ''

So overall they probably meant to get probably dorne, the golden company , hopefully most of the reach, various scattered targ loyalist houses that varys little birds have confirmed are genuinely on their side  and they have bought the loyalty of one new triarch in volantis  ,have at least 3-4 ships  full of rare exotic goods to try and  bribe the other 2 triarchs to throw volantis might into the fray (or buy extra sellswords /sellsails and assasins if that doesnt seem likely)

and finaly whatever drogo would have given them (probably not his own men but likely bought 10-20k  extra sellswords/slave troops  to fulfil his word of giving him an army) bought with slaves and tribute.

Edited April 21, 2023 by astarkchoice

[Nevets]

20 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Of course you don't hear about proxy depositors because this plan hasn't been exposed yet. But this is how it would work.

Yes, the bank takes deposits. What do you think banks do? It's the easiest way to make money: take deposits, loan the money, collect it back with interest, and pay the depositors a portion of that interest. It's amazing that this even needs to be explained. The keyholders are the descendants of the original founders of the bank. And if they are "investors" rather than depositors, the result is the same: their money is gone.

From my limited understanding of medieval banking they would be taking deposits from merchants or other businesses.  They would be known to them.  I bet they would know every single depositor and what business they are in.  In any event they are not going to take large deposits from mysterious foreigners they know nothing about.  They aren't stupid, nor are they that desperate for deposits.

Even if they did somehow go under, I am not aware of any instances where a bank failure brought down the local economy or the government with them. And fractional reserve banking was a comparatively  late development, so I would expect them to have substantial reserves available.

One million gold coins won't bring the Iron Bank down, and I have no doubt they have ways of making their displeasure known and the life of the Crown of Westeros sufficiently miserable that nobody will be inclined to follow their example.  Also, their depositors are likely sophisticated businessmen who know it won't be that big a problem.  In any event, it would likely take some time (months or years, most likely) before it became clear they wouldn't get paid.

20 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

The iron coin is made of iron. It has no intrinsic value other than the value of iron, which is common and abundant throughout the world. It only has value as a currency because people believe they can trade it for previous metals if they need to. But if the bank fails, there is no one willing to do that, so the coin becomes worthless. That's how it is with proxy currencies, like the dollar.

The iron coin is used because it is made in limited quantities, is difficult to manufacture unofficially, and can be exchanged for goods and services.  Someone may back it officially.  We have no idea who.  Even if its backer went under, someone would likely step up. Its total value isn't that much in the grand scheme of things.  The Merchants Guild, Sealord, or other banks could step in.  The value might fluctuate, but it wouldn't go to zero.

20 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

I've given you the evidence for I+L before, but here is the abridged version again: Petyr is the only blind spot in the vast spy network that Illyrio has provided, but he is completely unfazed by this despite knowing that Petyr is mucking with the finances of the realm and is directly responsible for events moving too quickly in Westeros. Then it is Petyr who convinced the small council not to send an FM after Dany but have Robert publicly announce her killer will get a lordship, and when the dope mucks it up -- just as Petyr predicted -- it reignited Drogo's plan to invade Westeros, just as Illyrio wanted.

So Illyrio isn't too worried about Petyr Baelish.   Things are crashing down.  He has lots of worries.  And Stannis and Arryn are also black holes of information, if I recall.

And Littlefinger suggests that the crown not spend lots of money killing Daenerys when they can do it on the cheap.  Shocking!

If that's all you've got, I'd say they aren't connected.

20 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

But again, buy it, don't buy it . . .

Don't worry, I'm not.  I see no reason to buy it, and plenty of reasons not to.

Edited April 22, 2023 by Nevets

[Lost Melnibonean]

4 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

I like your post and I agree with almost everything you said.  But I think it doesn’t address the OP’s initial concern, which from what I can tell is how to reconcile this with the Golden Company’s belief that they were supposed to join with Viserys and the Khalasar, and Viserys was supposed to vouch for “Aegon’s” legitimacy.

I think the simple answer is that Illyrio and Varys only told the Golden Company what they needed to hear to agree to take part in an invasion.  If you tell them that they would end up also having to fight the Dothraki maybe they balk.  

But the OP does raise a valid concern.

Yes, I think the common sense you make in that the Golden Company would not have wanted to fight against a Dothraki horde in Westeros and what we learn in The Lost Lord, Dance 24, make it very unlikely that the fat man's plan ever involved the bait and switch theory, in which Viserys and a Dothraki horde are sent to break the Seven Kingdoms, and Aegon and the Golden Company then arrive to mop up the mess. 

Tristan Rivers specifically tells us that the first plan involved Viserys joining the Golden Company (and presumably Aegon) "with fifty thousand Dothraki screamers at his back."  

Edited April 21, 2023 by Lost Melnibonean

[Lord Varys]

19 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Yes, I think the common sense you make in that the Golden Company would not have wanted to fight against a Dothraki horde in Westeros and what we learn in The Lost Lord, Dance 24, make it very unlikely that the fat man's plan ever involved the bait and switch theory, in which Viserys and a Dothraki horde are sent to break the Seven Kingdoms, and Aegon and the Golden Company then arrive to mop up the mess. 

Tristan Rivers specifically tells us that the first plan involved Viserys joining the Golden Company (and presumably Aegon) "with fifty thousand Dothraki screamers at his back."  

I don't think the mop up theory ever made much sense. What moron would turn to another Targaryen pretender if the one who just invaded Westeros was a horrible guy? How could but 10,000 men really help to establish Aegon as king? How many Targaryen loyalists flocking to Viserys' banner would suddenly want to switch to that of a guy who merely pretends to be Rhaegar's son?

That all makes pretty much no sense.

The way to make Aegon king is in the shadow of King Viserys III - as his heir and eventual successor. And the Dothraki and Golden Company would not be used to terrorize Westeros but merely to crush resistance.

As I keep saying and people seem to be not getting - KL is at the eastern coast. All Viserys and his allies needed to do was to take it. The Baratheon cause would die very quickly afterwards since they lack legitimacy - especially Cersei's brats, but Stannis and Renly, too. They are but the brothers of a usurper, and even lords and knights who are technically sworn to or friendly with the Baratheons would think twice if they truly want to march against a Targaryen king who retook what was stolen from his father and older brother.

Renly may have been the only one to mount real resistance considering his popularity with a lot of people ... but the Reach stuck with Aerys II during the Rebellion, so Renly's heavy reliance on the Reach may have proven disastrous if a majority of Mace's bannermen had decided to declare for Viserys III or had refused to march against him.

For most people the return of the Targaryens would have marked the ending of the mad Baratheon succession war ... not to mention providing Robb and his rebels the ideal pretext to end their secessionist nonsense and team up with a guy who would also want to put the Lannisters back in their place.

[Alester Florent]

18 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't think the mop up theory ever made much sense. What moron would turn to another Targaryen pretender if the one who just invaded Westeros was a horrible guy? How could but 10,000 men really help to establish Aegon as king? How many Targaryen loyalists flocking to Viserys' banner would suddenly want to switch to that of a guy who merely pretends to be Rhaegar's son?

That all makes pretty much no sense.

The way to make Aegon king is in the shadow of King Viserys III - as his heir and eventual successor. And the Dothraki and Golden Company would not be used to terrorize Westeros but merely to crush resistance.

As I keep saying and people seem to be not getting - KL is at the eastern coast. All Viserys and his allies needed to do was to take it. The Baratheon cause would die very quickly afterwards since they lack legitimacy - especially Cersei's brats, but Stannis and Renly, too. They are but the brothers of a usurper, and even lords and knights who are technically sworn to or friendly with the Baratheons would think twice if they truly want to march against a Targaryen king who retook what was stolen from his father and older brother.

Renly may have been the only one to mount real resistance considering his popularity with a lot of people ... but the Reach stuck with Aerys II during the Rebellion, so Renly's heavy reliance on the Reach may have proven disastrous if a majority of Mace's bannermen had decided to declare for Viserys III or had refused to march against him.

I could imagine a scenario where Renly's propensity to offer resistance might even factor into the plan. Let's say Viserys and Aegon attack and capture Dragonstone and King's Landing. Dorne rises in support. Stannis presumably dies defending Dragonstone and Robert is either dead or is killed defending King's Landing. Renly becomes the natural figurehead for a Baratheon resistance. Viserys offers no mercy for "usurper's dogs/family/etc."

Viserys falls down some stairs in the Red Keep. Aegon becomes king, and offers clement terms to Renly and his putative supporters (either a "pardon for supporting Robert" or to take the black with Edric being legitimised as lord of Storm's End, etc.) - if he'll submit. Immediately that cements Aegon's position as someone reasonable who the great lords can treat with. If Renly takes the deal, that eliminates any real focus of resistance. And if he doesn't take the deal, the Reach surely would as might well the Tullys, Vale lords, and maybe even many of the Stormlords, which would make his rebellion much easier to mop up.

[Lord Varys]

1 minute ago, Alester Florent said:

I could imagine a scenario where Renly's propensity to offer resistance might even factor into the plan. Let's say Viserys and Aegon attack and capture Dragonstone and King's Landing. Dorne rises in support. Stannis presumably dies defending Dragonstone and Robert is either dead or is killed defending King's Landing. Renly becomes the natural figurehead for a Baratheon resistance. Viserys offers no mercy for "usurper's dogs/family/etc."

Viserys falls down some stairs in the Red Keep. Aegon becomes king, and offers clement terms to Renly and his putative supporters (either a "pardon for supporting Robert" or to take the black with Edric being legitimised as lord of Storm's End, etc.) - if he'll submit. Immediately that cements Aegon's position as someone reasonable who the great lords can treat with. If Renly takes the deal, that eliminates any real focus of resistance. And if he doesn't take the deal, the Reach surely would as might well the Tullys, Vale lords, and maybe even many of the Stormlords, which would make his rebellion much easier to mop up.

That's too hypothetical for me. If the invasion would have happened, it would have comein the middle or at the end of the War of the Five Kings - which would have unfolded like it did, so we would have likely seen Viserys descending on a defenseless (to the sea) KL in the wake of the Blackwater ... with the Tyrells basically selling out the Lannisters in exchange for Viserys or Aegon (as his heir) marrying Margaery.

The Kingslanders plus the Reach men who would have had Targaryen leanings for the most part would have made short work out of Tywin's troops.

If things worked out as they did, Renly would have been killed by Melisandre, of course.

Considering the timeline Stannis and Renly wouldn't have had a chance to make a peace because the news about a Dothraki-Targaryen invasion would have only reached Westeros later. Even if Drogo hadn't captured slaves to drive them to Slaver's Bay as he intends to do when he dies ... Illyrio and Varys would have seen to it that news about Drogo and Viserys marching west to Pentos, teaming up with the Golden Company would have reached Westeros slower than it could have.

If we had a completely different scenario in Westeros then your idea there could play out ... although I honestly don't think they would have killed Viserys III at a point where Aegon had to still do some work. It strikes me as more likely that they intended to micromanage Viserys' entire campaign to ensure he wouldn't fuck things up. I mean, the guy is cruel to Dany ... but he is no cruel guy as such. He just wants to go back home, wants to be called king, wants to wear a crown again. If people told him what he wanted to hear, praised him all the time, he would be very glad if his generals and advisors and lords managed his campaign and his policies. He would have also forgiven pretty much anyone who abandoned the Baratheons and flocked to his banner - aside from, I imagine, Jaime and Tywin.

In the end Viserys III would be the hero king who restored House Targaryen only to then suddenly suffer an accidental death after which Aegon then can take over who earlier established himself as a dutiful nephew-heir.

That way things would have gone much more smoothly. Think about the trials of Jaehaerys I at the beginning of his reign. He effectively comes in to save everyone from Maegor ... but he still has to prove his mettle and all that. He faces considerable challenges and only is securely in power some years after his ascension. But with Aegon possibly being not Rhaegar's son - and people possibly seeing it that way - he has to be very close to Viserys to establish himself as a true Targaryen before he can take over.

[frenin]

 

42 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The Baratheon cause would die very quickly afterwards since they lack legitimacy

The Baratheons did not  gain and hold the throne becauset they had legitimacy and the Targaryens lacked it.

They did it because they had plenty of allies.

 

43 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

They are but the brothers of a usurper, and even lords and knights who are technically sworn to or friendly with the Baratheons would think twice if they truly want to march against a Targaryen king who retook what was stolen from his father and older brother.

Why?

 

43 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

but the Reach stuck with Aerys II during the Rebellion, so Renly's heavy reliance on the Reach may have proven disastrous if a majority of Mace's bannermen had decided to declare for Viserys III or had refused to march against him.

Most of Mace's most powerful bannermen were intimate with Renl, more than Renly was chummy with Mace actually.

And Varys had to kill Kevan explicitly because he'd unite Mace's bannermen and the Lannisters under Tommen to crush Aegon, a heathen army makes it easier for peple to unite.

 

45 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

not to mention providing Robb and his rebels the ideal pretext to end their secessionist nonsense and team up with a guy who would also want to put the Lannisters back in their place.

If Robb wanted to bend the knee why not do it with Stannis or Renly? Why would they bend the knee to the son of Aerys who still calls Eddard Stark a dog whenever he draws breath?

 

47 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

How many Targaryen loyalists flocking to Viserys' banner would suddenly want to switch to that of a guy who merely pretends to be Rhaegar's son?

How many Targaryen loyalists would flock to Viserys banner at all?

Viserys is a completely toxic asset. He is half mad, cruel, stupid, weak and cowardly... and this traits get exposed real soon five minutes into meeting him.

Aegon however is nice and bright, he' kind, he's brave and bold and he seems to know how to win people over.

 

[CassDarry]

On 4/17/2023 at 8:42 PM, Lord Varys said:

Of course. He is a proclaimed and crowned king in exile, and his identity as the last surviving son of Aerys II is not questioned. In this context it does matter if you talk about a mere claimant to a throne, somebody who could push a claim if he were to declare himself ... and a guy who has already done that, who was crowned as a rival pretender to Robert Baratheon by his own mother and with her crown back shortly after the Sack of KL

So you believe that if Viserys survived the Dothraki Sea And he met Young Griff, they would all(JonCon, Aegon, Illyria, Varys & GC) allow Viserys to be the claimant King but plan to get rid of him at a later date?

Instead of saying Aerys only bypassed Viserys because Aegon was an infant but now he isn't?

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, frenin said:

 

The Baratheons did not  gain and hold the throne becauset they had legitimacy and the Targaryens lacked it.

They did it because they had plenty of allies.

Which they no longer have now, they are not even a united house at that point.

Varys wouldn't have come up with the Aegon plan if he had thought that a Targaryen pretender stood little or no chance to take the Iron Throne ... because some usurpers with a flimsy or no claim had 'allies'. The guy knows more about the public opinion in Westeros among smallfolk and highborn alike than you or I.

2 hours ago, frenin said:

And Varys had to kill Kevan explicitly because he'd unite Mace's bannermen and the Lannisters under Tommen to crush Aegon, a heathen army makes it easier for peple to unite.

He didn't have to do that, he wanted to do it to make things easier for Aegon. We can also imagine that he would have killed Robert, Tywin, Ned, or any other powerful lord who could marshal a strong resistance against a Targaryen restoration.

Varys' presence in KL, his ability to influences policies and public opinion and to murder effectively anyone is, of course, a crucial detail in the entire plan.

Aegon shows up only with the Golden Company, though, without legitimacy, so he needs even more help that Viserys III would have needed had he showed up with the Dothraki and the Golden Company.

2 hours ago, frenin said:

If Robb wanted to bend the knee why not do it with Stannis or Renly? Why would they bend the knee to the son of Aerys who still calls Eddard Stark a dog whenever he draws breath?

Because Robb the Moron realized that his cause was pretty much doomed after the Blackwater. And because Eddard Stark was dead and Viserys III had no beef with Robb Stark.

2 hours ago, frenin said:

How many Targaryen loyalists would flock to Viserys banner at all?

Viserys is a completely toxic asset. He is half mad, cruel, stupid, weak and cowardly... and this traits get exposed real soon five minutes into meeting him.

You think people need to talk to Viserys III to declare for him? If he shows up with tens of thousands of troops? People are already flocking to Aegon's banner despite the fact that the guy and his sellswords just took Griffin's Roost and some other minor castles. They don't know him, have never seen, might not even believe he is Rhaegar's son - but they join him nonetheless because he claims he is Targaryen.

Viserys could have been doddering fool and people would have still joined him because of what he represented ... if he could show he had the numbers to win his war. And that he would have done with the Dothraki and the Golden Company.

Physically, Viserys looks exactly like a slender version of Rhaegar so chances are pretty big that he would have had a lot of success in the public relations department. All Illyrio would have to do is to give him proper clothes in the Targaryen colors and teach him some good speeches. The guy would have fit in perfectly with most Westerosi lords - he looked ridiculous only among the Dothraki.

And his haunted and nervous look may have been gone pretty quick once he was surrounded by thousands of men who were willing to kill and die for him. The guy is as paranoid and nervous in AGoT because he knows he is at the end of the line ... if this thing doesn't work he is finished.

1 hour ago, CassDarry said:

So you believe that if Viserys survived the Dothraki Sea And he met Young Griff, they would all(JonCon, Aegon, Illyria, Varys & GC) allow Viserys to be the claimant King but plan to get rid of him at a later date?

Instead of saying Aerys only bypassed Viserys because Aegon was an infant but now he isn't?

Yes, that's what they would do.

Aegon is officially dead, so if Viserys III doesn't acknowledge Aegon as his trueborn nephew, etc. and acknowledges him as his heir the lad would have no legitimacy. I mean, it is ludicrous to assume that Illyrio would make a bargain with Drogo for an invasion of Westeros on behalf of Viserys III - involving a marriage between Drogo and Viserys' sister - when his actual plan was to have Drogo invade Westeros with/on behalf of Aegon Targaryen.

If the latter had been the plan Illyrio would have done away with Viserys earlier, and would have arranged the Dany-Drogo match on behalf of Aegon from the start. But he didn't do that. Which means Viserys and Dany were a crucial part of their larger plan ... even if the king they wanted to make eventually was Aegon, not Viserys.

[frenin]

4 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Which they no longer have now, they are not even a united house at that point.

Viserys is dead by that point.

And Drogo would soon follow anyway.

Drogo had no intention of giving Viserys anything, he despised his ass.

 

5 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Varys wouldn't have come up with the Aegon plan if he had thought that a Targaryen pretender stood little or no chance to take the Iron Throne ... because some usurpers with a flimsy or no claim had 'allies'. The guy knows more about the public opinion in Westeros among smallfolk and highborn alike than you or I.

Varys very plainly expected Robert's coalition to self implode to pave the way for Aegon, he didn't actually believed he had a chance in a head on fight.

That is literally why he killed the last capable leader of the Lannister-Baratheon cause (Stannis being trapped in the north has for all intents and purposes ceased to exist), he literally says Aegon stands no chance with an actual leader at the helm.

Leaving aside that the argument is just indeed flimsy anyway.

 

 

12 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

He didn't have to do that, he wanted to do it to make things easier for Aegon.

He did, he says as much and he can count.

If Kevan is capable of clean house and get the Faith and the Tyrells to remain firmly on Tommen's side, Aegon doesn't stand a chance.

The numbers simply do not add up.

 

14 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

We can also imagine that he would have killed Robert, Tywin, Ned, or any other powerful lord who could marshal a strong resistance against a Targaryen restoration.

And they could also have killed him. The duality.

Besides, Varys' spiders are strong in King's Landing, not so strong anywhere else. He simply could not kill most of the powerful lords that could oppose Aegon because those would be simply out of reach.

 

17 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Varys' presence in KL, his ability to influences policies and public opinion and to murder effectively anyone is, of course, a crucial detail in the entire plan.

Well it is, it's not infallible tho.

Littlefinger for example, he stands to gain much more with Robert's, Joffrey's misrule than with a new king completely influenced by Varys, he knows how to counter Varys. He can sell him out.

Then, there is no plan.

And like this, half a dozen of what ifs.

 

 

19 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Aegon shows up only with the Golden Company, though, without legitimacy, so he needs even more help that Viserys III would have needed had he showed up with the Dothraki and the Golden Company.

Aegon would have never gotten the Golden Company without Tywin dying, let alone with Robert and Ned still alive and Westeros still being willing to resist any invader.

And Aegon is not Viserys, that is a huge plus to anyone with eyes.

 

 

21 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Because Robb the Moron realized that his cause was pretty much doomed after the Blackwater. And because Eddard Stark was dead and Viserys III had no beef with Robb Stark.

Better to use his ships then still.

Viserys has no beef with Robb Stark, that you know of, he has every beef in the world with his father and Robb reveres his father, so do most northmen.

 

23 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

You think people need to talk to Viserys III to declare for him?

Yes.

 

23 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

People are already flocking to Aegon's banner despite the fact that the guy and his sellswords just took Griffin's Roost and some other minor castles. They don't know him, have never seen, might not even believe he is Rhaegar's son - but they join him nonetheless because he claims he is Targaryen.

Who are those people?

 

24 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Viserys could have been doddering fool and people would have still joined him because of what he represented ... if he could show he had the numbers to win his war. And that he would have done with the Dothraki and the Golden Company.

A dodgering fool inspiries more confidence than Viserys, who only inspires disdain and laughter.

No one cares about what Viserys represents if he can't do nothing with it, he cannot.

 

26 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Physically, Viserys looks exactly like a slender version of Rhaegar so chances are pretty big that he would have had a lot of success in the public relations department.

Till he opened his mouth, which he would need to.

 

26 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

All Illyrio would have to do is to give him proper clothes in the Targaryen colors and teach him some good speeches.

The first can be done, the second is impossible. 

The man can't be fixed and anyone who meets him comes to that conclusion fairly quick.

 

28 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

he looked ridiculous only among the Dothraki.

He looks ridiculous among anyone. That's kinda his thing.

There is no single character who meets him and doesn't think he's just an idiot.

 

28 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

And his haunted and nervous look may have been gone pretty quick once he was surrounded by thousands of men who were willing to kill and die for him. The guy is as paranoid and nervous in AGoT because he knows he is at the end of the line ... if this thing doesn't work he is finished.

May? Or may get worse.