US Politics: #Musky DeSaster

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Parents should have no influence on education because that means the dumbest parents can fuck up everything for your kid:

 

[Jaxom 1974]

 

 

[karaddin]

1 hour ago, Zorral said:

Didn't/does't work like that here.  Alas.

I would assume from the name that ranked voting in similar to preferential voting in which case it sounds like it's a shit implementation? Or is the name completely misleading?

Preferential voting in Aus you just number the candidates in order of your preference, when your current top pic is eliminated in the count your vote then goes to the next on your list and so on. It doesn't ever require running another election.

[ThinkerX]

2 hours ago, karaddin said:

I would assume from the name that ranked voting in similar to preferential voting in which case it sounds like it's a shit implementation? Or is the name completely misleading?

Preferential voting in Aus you just number the candidates in order of your preference, when your current top pic is eliminated in the count your vote then goes to the next on your list and so on. It doesn't ever require running another election.

That is how it worked here in the now thawed north country.

The democrat won because the loony-tune republican candidate refused to abandon her feud with the mostly sane republican candidate, so neither got enough votes to claim victory. This so enraged the loony-tune republicans they are attempting to put a recall motion on the ballot.

That said, from references in prior threads, it seems to me at least some of the democrats in NY are basically republicans masquerading as democrats.

[DMC]

On 5/24/2023 at 5:00 AM, karaddin said:

Either I worded that terribly or you completely misread me, "Why are they so shit at everything." was talking about Gaetz and his shitty hostage analogy that isn't even internally consistent.

My bad.  I guess I just assumed you were referring to Dems because asking why the likes of Matt Gaetz is so shit at everything is like asking why water is wet.

22 hours ago, Gaston de Foix said:

I think this is broadly right at a strategic level; however, could the Dems have made better tactical decisions? Almost certainly.  Either draw a red line and don't negotiate or negotiate from the get-go.  By drawing a red line and then abandoning it they have given themselves the worst of both worlds.  At the least, you've given the Republicans an easy talking point. 

Agreed.  Biden blinked which means now he has to deal.  I would have advised continuing with the red line/refusal to negotiate up until the deadline to see if the "moderate" House Republicans started to change their tune on the discharge petition because McCarthy wasn't making any headway.  But, it's too late now.

22 hours ago, Gaston de Foix said:

There's this argument about whether the debt ceiling could have been abolished or raised to a sufficiently high number during Biden's first two years.  The detractors point out, correctly, that Sinema and Manchin wouldn't have voted for it in 2022 (almost certainly true in Manchin's case given his deficit-hawkish views).  The Dems did do a whip count in 2022 and Manchin and Sinema rejected it.  

I don't know for sure about Manchin and Sinema, but it certainly is a lot more complicated than the Dems could have just put it in a reconciliation bill.  It may well have alienated Manchin - as well as House Dem moderates that they would be necessary as well.  It, further, may well have alienated many House progressives that were adamantly to such a resolution. 

And, of course, it would have put responsibility attribution solely on the Dems - which would have been use as an electoral cudgel by the GOP in 2022; as well as expending political capital that may have poisoned the well on working with the GOP Senate on other measures.

So, then the question becomes what abolishing the debt ceiling is worth.  Is it worth not passing the Inflation Reduction Act?  Or the Respect for Marriage Act?  Or the omnibus along with ECA reform passed right before Christmas?  Maybe it is!  We'll see what Biden/the Dems have to give up in order to reach a deal.  But it's a much more difficult decision than simply saying "the Dems could have done this themselves." 

All of these things are interrelated.  I wouldn't necessarily call it a post-hoc fallacy - to be fair to @Fez he was calling for Dems to do this at the time.  But even though this was entirely foreseeable when there's a Dem president and a GOP House - frankly since 2013 - I still don't think Biden/the Dem leadership made the wrong calculation.

[DMC]

Also, felt the thread title edit was called for.  Heck of a job Ronnie!

[Gaston de Foix]

27 minutes ago, DMC said:

Also, felt the thread title edit was called for.  Heck of a job Ronnie!

It was so, so stupid.   I really thought whatever he said at the launch, we would have the visual of him and Casey DeSantis smiling and waving with their young children.  It wouldn't have mattered what he said; the argument for generational change is a potent one as proved in the 1992 and 2008 elections.  For once, the Republicans would have it on their side.  

[IheartIheartTesla]

Meh, we all thought Trump's escalator ride kickoff was a disaster too, and look how that turned out. I think rumors of DeSantis campaign demise are a bit exaggerated. 

[DMC]

Just now, IheartIheartTesla said:

Meh, we all thought Trump's escalator ride kickoff was a disaster too, and look how that turned out. I think rumors of DeSantis campaign demise are a bit exaggerated. 

Agreed.  He certainly could come back from this.  On the other end, Harris' campaign launch was universally lauded, didn't really help her the long run.  So, I don't think it's THAT big of a deal.  Still fun to tease about though.

[Jaxom 1974]

Does it really matter what we think about that launch? Because we weren't the ones being aimed at. Instead, the opportunity to peel off Trump supporters who wanted a younger, actually capable of still good stepping, Trump-like being...and then having the tech-bro "god" at his side launching on the world's most expensive soap box and then having it all but crash and burn allowing Trump to just go scorched earth on him? 

So yeah, maybe he can recover...but to those who were looking for the next Trump...that couldn't have gone worse in the end...

[Zorral]

HEATHER COX RICHARDSON - Letters from an American

Quote

 

The Department of Homeland Security today issued a bulletin warning, “Lone offenders and small groups motivated by a range of ideological beliefs and personal grievances continue to pose a persistent and lethal threat to the Homeland.” Both domestic extremists and foreign terrorists are using online extremist messaging and calls for violence to motivate supporters to launch attacks. Individuals upset about the 2024 election and new laws or court decisions might attack “US critical infrastructure, faith-based institutions, individuals or events associated with the LGBTQIA+ community, schools, racial and ethnic minorities, and government facilities and personnel, including law enforcement.” The advisory is in force for six months.

https://www.dhs.gov/ntas/advisory/national-terrorism-advisory-system-bulletin-may-24-2023

The announcement warned that a key factor in potential violence is “perceptions of the 2024 general election cycle,” a reference to disinformation suggesting that U.S. elections are rigged. This false allegation is a staple of former president Trump’s political messaging.

That disinformation led to the January 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, of course, although many of those who have stood trial for participating in that attack have expressed regret—at least in front of the judge. But not all of them. Today Judge Christopher Cooper noted that Richard “Bigo” Barnett had “not shown any acceptance of responsibility” for his actions before sentencing him to four and a half years in prison. Barnett is an Arkansas man who was convicted on eight counts for his participation in the attack, during which he was famously photographed with his foot on then–House speaker Nancy Pelosi’s desk. ....

 

This pearl clutching over 'lefty extremism' again?

Edited May 25, 2023 by Zorral

[Zorral]

SCOTUS ruled weakening the clean water act.  Evidently They have been reading the Brit reports of the utter cess the Brit corps have made of Brit water.  YAY NO clean water!  So much winning for those corps who have been buying up all the water for decades around the world.

Supreme Court weakens EPA power to enforce Clean Water Act

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/05/25/supreme-court-clean-water-act/

Just like BREXIT wrecked the Brit economy, the fascists here are showing USA YAY can be #1 at that too -- coz not only will They joyously wreck the US economy, but the global economy while at it.

[Zorral]

Also you are all aware that desantis is openly recruiting cops who have dismissed, convicted, suspended, etc. for disciplinary and other reasons to come to FL and work for him.  His praetorian guard.  Ultimately, does he really believe he can keep control of them?  History always shows otherwise.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/may/22/ron-desantis-police-relocation-violent-records

Let us worry about 'lefty extremism' as These guys beat down our doors, rape, plunder and murder at will. As in Hitler's rise to power, while the brown shirts not only abused and killed everyone else they pleased, while they also purged each other he howled about commies.

Edited May 25, 2023 by Zorral

[Gaston de Foix]

50 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Meh, we all thought Trump's escalator ride kickoff was a disaster too, and look how that turned out. I think rumors of DeSantis campaign demise are a bit exaggerated. 

I think what the Trump kickoff speech did very effectively was communicate his big ideas of nativism and nationalism and American decline in a way that cut through the noise and clutter for casual listeners.  It also projected his wealth and confidence.  Quick, tell me what RDS's big message was? 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

2 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Also you are all aware that desantis is openly recruiting cops who have dismissed, convicted, suspended, etc. for disciplinary and other reasons to come to FL and work for him. 

No, shocking, a governor of a state known for it's blatant corruption wants to recruit corrupt people. 

 

On DeSantis' rollout, it was bad, but doesn't really matter. A month from now most people with have forgotten about it. Where he's going to flounder is on the debate stage. He'll make Rubio look good. The question is who will cut him to pieces. It won't be Trump, he's also bad during debates. We've yet to see the wild card (and it won't be Haley or Scott either). 

[karaddin]

2 hours ago, DMC said:

My bad.  I guess I just assumed you were referring to Dems because asking why the likes of Matt Gaetz is so shit at everything is like asking why water is wet.

But water is still supposed to evaporate over time, they're like mouldy shaded water that just sits there getting more and more gross refusing to evaporate.

I have no idea where I was going with this, so I'll leave it at that 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

21 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

No, shocking, a governor of a state known for it's blatant corruption wants to recruit corrupt people. 

 

 

Hey shitting on Florida is my thing. Just ask DMC.

I shit on Florida,

you worked for Klobuchar 

And without a hitch

DMC ends up with a nervous twitch.

 

Before your start to criticize this silly little poem, and go on about the metrics. It started unintentionally after I realized the rhyme of Klobuchar and Florida. And I was not in the mood to spend anytime on working it out properly.

[Gaston de Foix]

8 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Hey shitting on Florida is my thing. Just ask DMC.

I shit on Florida,

you worked for Klobuchar 

And without a hitch

DMC ends up with a nervous twitch.

Fixed it for you: 

I hate Florida

You stan Klobuchar

And without a hitch

DMC gets a nervous twitch

[Zorral]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

No, shocking, a governor of a state known for it's blatant corruption wants to recruit corrupt people. 

You seem uncomprehending of the difference between 'corruption' and 'violence.'  Not that corruption isn't dreadful and horrific, but violence with impunity is a whole other thing.

You seem to be missing that VIOLENCE is the reasons why various organizations are now warning people against visiting Florida, and why, as in TX, so many are desperate to move out of these states.

No fascist/authoritarian nationalist group can take over a state without violence. Violence is the soul, heart and mind.  So many lead lives of dead dull and drear, and the only thing that gives them a sense of vitality -- that sense of being personally powerful for which all these ilks yearn with every fiber of their being, and hate the world for not having, is hurting other people.  They love it, and thus they are the foundation on which the hitlers and desantises build their horrorific states.

 

Edited May 25, 2023 by Zorral

[Gaston de Foix]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/slimmed-down-us-debt-ceiling-deal-takes-shape-sources-2023-05-25/#:~:text=WASHINGTON%2C May 25 (Reuters),person familiar with the talks.

Biden and McCarthy are $70 billion apart. 

For me the litmus test for this deal will not be the terms (they will be bad), but (a) the duration of the deal (i.e., whether Biden lets McCarthy pull this stunt a year from now); (b) the scope of the (badly needed) permitting reform that would be attached to the deal.