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Ukraine War: Wagner’s fading thrust


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He's not labeled a traitor, no sanctions-criminal charges, but Pirgozhin is going to Belarus -- not back to Ukraine.  Don't know what this means; do his Wagner forces got with him?

Just heard this on the BBC.

Online, here -- https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-66006142

 

Edited by Zorral
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China will be nodding and taking notes as they plan their next moves to Russia's detriment.

If they wanted to be a genuine threat towards Lake Baikal, etc., it is now patently obvious that such territory is there for the taking.  Water for the Beijing region for a hundred years, etc. just for the cost of some diesel fuel.

Or, if they want to be subtle, the list of available political or espionage dance partners on their card now includes Kadyrov and his Tik Tok Troopers, Wagner, Strelkov and his Club of Angry Patriots, the FSB, unhappy military leaders, the 'Stans and their leadership, Georgia, Ukraine, Armenia, all of whom they can play against Putin.

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2 minutes ago, Zorral said:

He's not labeled a traitor, no sanctions-criminal charges, but Pirgozhin is going to Belarus -- not back to Ukraine.  Don't know what this means; do his Wagner forces got with him?

Just heard this on the BBC.

Online, here -- https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-66006142

 

Seems awfully quick. How did all of this happen in a mere 24 hours hahaha. Whoever writing these scripts needs to slow down. 

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The deal of Pirgozhin going to Belarus, without charges, etc. -- what does this mean? Will the Russian state military now move into Ukraine? Will Wagner be dissolved? I can't imagine he's allowed to take his 30,000 troops, which Russian desperately needs, with him. So again ??????

Among so much Wagner function, it allowed Putin to do operations in Africa and other places in the world with plausible deniability since Wagner was a mercenary group, not Russian military.

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41 minutes ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

His tweets should apparently be taken with a pinch of salt

He's extremely over-enthusiastic and occasionally (as in, maybe a couple of times a day) posts wild rumours without checking them.

That said, he's got a good eye for tracking down the latest Telegram and news posts on breaking stories long before other outlets pick up on them. You just have to sprinkle a liberal dose of salt on everything and contrast with other sources.

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1 minute ago, Zorral said:

The deal of Pirgozhin going to Belarus, without charges, etc. -- what does this mean? Will the Russian state military now move into Ukraine? Will Wagner be dissolved? I can't imagine he's allowed to take his 30,000 troops, which Russian desperately needs, with him. So again ??????

Saw something on the BBC about Wagner troops being pardoned and being able to choose (or not) to sign contracts with the MoD. 

How that will play in reality I've no idea. But I'm not sure I'd be that thrilled with Pirgozhin now if I was a Wagner Merc. 

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Just now, dog-days said:

Saw something on the BBC about Wagner troops being pardoned and being able to choose (or not) to sign contracts with the MoD. 

How that will play in reality I've no idea. But I'm not sure I'd be that thrilled with Pirgozhin now if I was a Wagner Merc. 

They aren’t, apparently

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26 minutes ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

Major war in Europe. Worldwide pandemic. Titanic claiming lives through hubris and lack of safety. Revolution  in Russia.

The 2020’s are playing the 1910’s greatest hits

+far right parties on the rise in Germany and elsewhere. This time I have my money on Islamophobia replacing Anti-Semitism. 

The Muricans have replaced the Christian front with Proud Boys and co (same shit different assholes).

This incarnation of Lenin is infinitely dumber and more inept. Thus Czar Vladimir Vladimirovich is still in office unlike Nikolas Alexandrovich, who didn't survive the previous revolution.

But to go on with the history repeating itself

The Hindenburg doesn't look like such a disaster afterall, does it?

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Some interesting thoughts (although noted before Prigozhin's departure for Belarus).

Quote

 

I have long been calling the Putin regime “hollow yet still strong.” It remained, and remains, viable as long as there is no political alternative. Now, we might see just how hollow the regime is. Putin has unwittingly launched a stress test of his own regime. He had already lost his mystique with the bungling of the aggression against Ukraine. Mystique, once lost, is near impossible to regain.

There is one thing that all dictators properly fear: an alternative. And Putin, shockingly, after years and years of indefatigably suppressing alternatives, of promoting nonentities to his inner circle to ensure no one could threaten him, has allowed one to take shape. 

 

 

 

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Now the blatherers are boldly proclaiming that letting Pirgozhin go proves how weak Putin is, and is perceived to be weak, yet Pirgozhin is still a real threat to Putin.

In another few hours or a day -- they'll say the opposite, as things continue to unravel/unroll.

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2 hours ago, Maithanet said:

The only way this makes sense (to me anyway) is:

1.  Prigozhin is lying, the coup will continue.  Seems far-fetched as shock is essential.

2.  Prigozhin has actually won, and he has support from a sufficient portion of the Russian govt that he believes he can consolidate and freeze Putin out.  Either putin will be kept as a figurehead or disposed of later.

3.  Prigozhin knew his coup attempt would fail and took this deal.  He's planning to flee Putin's wrath ASAP.  

Looking more and more like it's #3.  Maybe Prigozhin lost his nerve, or maybe he correctly saw that if the military didn't defect and join him, that his defeat is inevitable.  Regardless, it looks like this is over and putin has survived.  

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The only thing we know for sure is that Putin, Russia and Pirgozhin are strong enough to throw you know who off the media.  :rolleyes:  Which condition, you know, is a relief. Also leaving the magahata and wannbes spluttering in even greater incoherence than ever.

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4 minutes ago, Zorral said:

The only thing we know for sure is that Putin, Russia and Pirgozhin are strong enough to throw you know who off the media.  :rolleyes:  Which condition, you know, is a relief. Also leaving the magahata and wannbes spluttering in even greater incoherence than ever.

So you got tired of the Hunter Biden stuff already? This is gonna be a long Presidential election season for you.

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36 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

This is gonna be a long Presidential election season for you.

Dayem, you have no idea.  It's been going on since 1972.

~~~~~~~~~~~~

Regarding this timeline of Prigozhin's connections to US Time of Troubles and Russia, I have no trouble imagining Jack Clancy getting tasked with extracting him from Belarus to the 'safety' of the US, as an asset of some kind. :rolleyes:

Timeline: What Led to the Standoff Between Russia and Prigozhin
The leader of the Wagner mercenary group had kept a low profile for years, only acknowledging his force’s existence in September of last year.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/24/world/europe/russia-military-prigozhin-wagner-timeline.html

Quote

 

June 2023

.... Tensions between Mr. Prigozhin and Russia’s military rose higher. Mr. Prigozhin said Wagner would not comply with an order that would require it to sign a formal contract with Russia’s defense ministry by July.

The feud rapidly escalated on Friday of last week, when Mr. Prigozhin released a 30-minute video in which he described his country’s invasion of Ukraine as a “racket” perpetrated by a corrupt elite chasing money and glory without concern for Russian lives. He also challenged the Kremlin’s claim that Kyiv had been on the verge of attacking Russian-backed separatist territory in Ukraine’s east when Russia invaded.

“The war wasn’t needed to return Russian citizens to our bosom, nor to demilitarize or denazify Ukraine,” Mr. Prigozhin said, referring to Mr. Putin’s initial justifications for the war. “The war was needed so that a bunch of animals could simply exult in glory.”

Mr. Prigozhin also accused Mr. Shoigu, the Russian minister of defense, of orchestrating a deadly attack with missiles and helicopters on camps to the rear of the Russian lines in Ukraine, where his soldiers were bivouacked.

The Russian defense ministry denied the allegations, saying in a statement that the messages Mr. Prigozhin had posted about supposed strikes on Wagner camps “do not correspond to reality.” His account of the attacks remains unconfirmed.

Mr. Putin mobilized Russian troops on Saturday to defend Moscow from what he called an armed rebellion by Mr. Prigozhin, whose forces had claimed control of Rostov-on-Don and were seen moving north along a highway toward the Russian capital. Then, in a surprise turn of events, the Belarusian president, Alexsandr G. Lukashenko, said he had secured Mr. Prigozhin agreement to halt his forces’ advance. Mr. Prigozhin confirmed that he was turning his forces around.

The Kremlin’s spokesman, Dmitri Peskov, said that Mr. Prigozhin would flee to Belarus, and that Russia’s military operations in Ukraine would continue unchanged.

 

 

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Ever since he was two years old, eh?

I am not saying this is kinda creepy and stalkerish, but I have no idea how to end this sentence.

Anyway, on another board I share with a bunch of proper crazy right wingers, they really keep banging on about 4 things.

The NARA-Lago case (I try to be courteous and won't mention his name here), Hunter Biden and Joe Biden (or the deep state bringing us back to topic one), corona vaccines/side effects/long term mortality of vaccinated sheeple (yes, that's still on their list of grievances) and somewhat related RFK Jr. and how he would make good candidate/maybe even President (in absence of topic number 1). 

And no, to my dismay the main offenders are not from Florida as far as I can tell. 

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