U.S. Elections: The Safe Space For People With Good Brains

[A Horse Named Stranger]

20 minutes ago, Fez said:

He forgave $50 million in loans today that he gave his campaign over the course of the primary season, meaning he can longer legally reimburse himself for those previous campaign donations (although he can still run most of his future campaign expenses through his businesses to route donations to himself that way). That's a pretty big commitment and a sign I think that he's definitely in this for the long haul.

Politics has a lot do with symbolics. Assuming his campaign is somewhat out of cash anyway, forgiving the debt might change really nothing for Trump. 

[Kalbear]

4 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Kalbear,

I think we're all wondering about the name change.  

Wasn't a bet. Was a comment from @Werthead on Facebook about getting tons of notifications from warning "dickwad poster #3782". I responded that their name should probably have clued us in sooner.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

58 minutes ago, Dickwad Poster #3784 said:

Wasn't a bet. Was a comment from @Werthead on Facebook about getting tons of notifications from warning "dickwad poster #3782". I responded that their name should probably have clued us in sooner.

Then I like the change.

[lokisnow]

So brexit will trigger the beginning of a global recession tomorrow.

recession= guaranteed trump victory in November.

thanks for giving the world president trump, England, he'll probably nuke Scotland first.

[sologdin]

oh, he's not even the candidate.  

[Shryke]

1 hour ago, lokisnow said:

So brexit will trigger the beginning of a global recession tomorrow.

recession= guaranteed trump victory in November.

thanks for giving the world president trump, England, he'll probably nuke Scotland first.

lol

Your unrealistic pessimism.is at least consistent.

[mormont]

12 hours ago, Zorral said:

One might speculate that jetting off to Scotland to wrangle with the Scots who hate him and the golf course he rode in on, and whom he's screwed over again and again, isn't the best move for a guy running for POTUS and who needs campaign funds and a ground game.

It's looking like a pretty smart move now.

[Fez]

6 hours ago, lokisnow said:

So brexit will trigger the beginning of a global recession tomorrow.

recession= guaranteed trump victory in November.

thanks for giving the world president trump, England, he'll probably nuke Scotland first.

Possible, but very unlikely.

The UK will almost certainly go into recession, and large parts of the EU as well. But the US and Asia are likely to come out ahead in all this; stocks will take an initial beating, but investors fleeing the unraveling of the UK economy will head to safer investments in New York, Hong Kong, etc. Also, because the actual leaving doesn't occur for 2 years at a minimum, a lot of the actual effects, as opposed to speculation about the effects, won't occur until long after the election.

And if I'm wrong and the US does go into recession, there's still a very clear logic chain to follow: recession was caused by Brexit, Trump supported Brexit, don't vote Trump. I know that's too complicated for some voters, but they're the folks who already supported Trump.

[Tywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Fez said:

And if I'm wrong and the US does go into recession, there's still a very clear logic chain to follow: recession was caused by Brexit, Trump supported Brexit, don't vote Trump. I know that's too complicated for some voters, but they're the folks who already supported Trump.

Doubtful. Basically every poll has Trump ahead of Clinton on who is more fit to handle the economy, and all signs point to a recession helping Trump. 

[Fez]

29 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Doubtful. Basically every poll has Trump ahead of Clinton on who is more fit to handle the economy, and all signs point to a recession helping Trump. 

You shouldn't refer to a single CNN poll and a Gallup tracker that doesn't even ask horserace questions as "basically every poll." And polls asked prior to the end of the Democratic primary don't count.

In general, polls have found voters trusting Clinton over Trump on every issue except terrorism, and that's probably changed since Orlando too. We have no idea what might help or hurt Trump since we've never seen an election quite like this. Conventional wisdom says a recession should hurt the party currently in the White House, but conventional wisdom has been wrong on damn near everything this year.

[BloodRider]

5 hours ago, Emre Mor-mont said:

It's looking like a pretty smart move now.

You think?  The Scots did not go for Leave at all.  In fact, they may now leave the UK.  There is a lesser chance Ireland will as well.  The UK may have voted to break up more than the EU.

[Tywin et al.]

4 minutes ago, Fez said:

You shouldn't refer to a single CNN poll and a Gallup tracker that doesn't even ask horserace questions as "basically every poll." And polls asked prior to the end of the Democratic primary don't count.

There have been a number of polls asking who is better suited to handle the economy and Trump regularly out performs Clinton. And while the polls aren't as reliable before the General Election technically begins, it is fair to make an assumption if you see a consistent result.

You're right to say that it's difficult to know what will happen considering this election cycle is so atypical, but we do have some data and anecdotal evidence that suggests a weak economy and a heightened fear of terrorism helps Trump. I do agree that his response to Orlando could change the latter, but I don't think there is much that can happen to change the former. 

[TrackerNeil]

11 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

There have been a number of polls asking who is better suited to handle the economy and Trump regularly out performs Clinton. And while the polls aren't as reliable before the General Election technically begins, it is fair to make an assumption if you see a consistent result.

You're right to say that it's difficult to know what will happen considering this election cycle is so atypical, but we do have some data and anecdotal evidence that suggests a weak economy and a heightened fear of terrorism helps Trump. I do agree that his response to Orlando could change the latter, but I don't think there is much that can happen to change the former. 

I think it will depend if Brexit has a real economic impact on the economy and how long that lasts. I'm going to wait for the economists to weigh in, but, yes, it is nervous-making.

[IheartIheartTesla]

Yes it is nervous making. I am also worried that this is the year pollsters get things wrong (although thats tougher in the US) because all the demographic models are off kilter and we are seriously underestimating voter angst.

However, I dont think this is quite like 2008 and the US should not feel long term economic consequences.....although I have nothing to base that on.

[mormont]

54 minutes ago, BloodRider said:

You think?  The Scots did not go for Leave at all.  In fact, they may now leave the UK.  There is a lesser chance Ireland will as well.  The UK may have voted to break up more than the EU.

From a US election perspective, Trump is right on the ground on the day of a hugely significant vote which he supported and which he can easily present as being part of his anti-establishment schtick. It's a golden opportunity for him to deliver a few zingers and turn a business trip into a political opportunity.

I mean no offence by saying that the nuances probably won't matter to US voters: even if they're aware that Scotland voted differently they may have only a fuzzy notion of where exactly in the UK he is. Likewise the impact on the Irish issue won't be something most US voters will be aware of. All they'll see is Trump in the UK on the day they voted to give Europe a bloody nose.

[James Arryn]

9 hours ago, sologdin said:

oh, he's not even the candidate.  

You're thinking Laser Nipples?

[Fez]

29 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Yes it is nervous making. I am also worried that this is the year pollsters get things wrong (although thats tougher in the US) because all the demographic models are off kilter and we are seriously underestimating voter angst.

However, I dont think this is quite like 2008 and the US should not feel long term economic consequences.....although I have nothing to base that on.

The pollsters haven't really gotten too much wrong though, especially in the US, its more that people don't want to believe the polls. In the primaries, there were a few individual states that got screwed up but the only one that wasn't easily explainable was Michigan on the Democratic side, and in the larger picture the polls were completely right. From the beginning, Trump was leading the Republican polls, its just that people didn't want to believe that; and Clinton never trailed in the Democratic race nationally, Sanders did better than expected but the horse race angle was played up far more than the polls or actual results ever justified.

Outside the US, I believe the polls got the Canadian election broadly correct and in the UK they were right that the Brexit vote would be extremely close. The UK general election was wrong and the most recent Israeli election was very wrong, but those are the only two examples I can really think of; and I'm not sure Israel has ever really been accurately polled, so that's not much evidence of polling being off.

I trust the polling for the general election, particularly the national level polling that there's been a lot of, and so long as Clinton consistently has at least a 3% advantage average across the polls I'm not worried about the election outcome. And right now its closer to 6%. The polling can of course get closer and I could get very worried than, but for now, I'm in a good place mentally about where this is going.

[Tywin et al.]

Check out Sen. Mark Kirk's (R-IL) new ad:

 

[Jace, Extat]

8 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Check out Sen. Mark Kirk's (R-IL) new ad:

 

Can you give a brief summary for those of us who want to avoid running up data on our new tellularphones? 

I'm  guessing he'said denouncing Trump?

[Dr. Pepper]

16 minutes ago, Pony Queen Jace said:

Can you give a brief summary for those of us who want to avoid running up data on our new tellularphones? 

I'm  guessing he'said denouncing Trump?

Yup, basically.  Mark Kirk had a stroke, Mark Kirk first to call for vote on Garland, believes in women's right to choose, denounced Trump, Mark Kirk is an independent, vote Kirk.