UK Politics - It's a bit glitchy

[SeanF]

13 hours ago, williamjm said:

There is a bumper crop of local/regional elections in May including those delayed from this year. They may not be as important as a general election but big defeats, could be very damaging to Boris and his reputation for electability. The Scottish Parliamentary elections could be particularly significant since a big SNP victory could pave the way for Indyref 2, although given that the latest poll had the SNP with a 39 point lead the results might feel a bit like a foregone conclusion unless they mess up spectacularly over the next few months. Big defeats in the London mayoral race and in traditional Tory strongholds in rural England would also be bad for them.

Labour would have to be doing very badly not to make big gains in 2021.  Even under IDS, the Conservatives made big mid-term gains in local elections.  A big red flag over Corbyn's electability was the party's failure to make headway in local elections under his leadership.

[Werthead]

Interesting analysis here that the near future could be a fairly bleak and despair-inducing cycle of lockdown, ease, lockdown, ease unless there is much more work done nationally and internationally to stick to sensible rules to keep the virus suppressed outside of a lockdown. In particular they note that Europe and America may have to learn tactics and take advice from Asia and Africa (whose countries and people have much more experience in dealing with dangerous viral outbreaks over decades), which is something the advanced West is extremely reluctant to do. But we'll have to, or find ourselves trapped in a Groundhog Day of misery for many months which does far, far more damage to the economy than maintaining less extreme measures over a longer period of time.

[polishgenius]

4 hours ago, Werthead said:

Interesting analysis here that the near future could be a fairly bleak and despair-inducing cycle of lockdown, ease, lockdown, ease unless there is much more work done nationally and internationally to stick to sensible rules to keep the virus suppressed outside of a lockdown. In particular they note that Europe and America may have to learn tactics and take advice from Asia and Africa (whose countries and people have much more experience in dealing with dangerous viral outbreaks over decades), which is something the advanced West is extremely reluctant to do. But we'll have to, or find ourselves trapped in a Groundhog Day of misery for many months which does far, far more damage to the economy than maintaining less extreme measures over a longer period of time.

This is an absolute no brainer. I was on my church zoom earlier, one of our members is back in Singapore and she was shocked to hear from the rest of us how bad the situation is and that we're going back into lockdown, because in Asia they're just so better used to dealing with it and in Singapore there's almost no new infections now.

[The Anti-Targ]

I guess a lesson is in an epidemic situation everyone does moderate things voluntarily to control the spread, or they do less moderate things under a yoke of govt mandate and control. What many in the west seem to think of as freedom means to ignore anything the govt says and do whatever the hell you want. Which means mandated controls which don't quite work because they are not implemented in the way necessary to actually achieve what needs to be achieved, they are applied for too short a time, and people defy the mandates as being too extreme.

[ants]

New Zealand and Australia are part of the West, and our experience is that we can (and have) done harsh measures to get it under control with community buy in.  Every election so far (4 of them) has resulted in an increased majority for the party in power who all (in the elections here to date) have pushed strong measures.  

[The Anti-Targ]

If New Zealand had an actual second wave I doubt there would have been good buy in for severe lockdown mkII. And since Australia's second wave was really on Vic, the situation is not the same as things going to pooh across the whole country.

There was a helluva lot of protest and complaint about how unnecessary and unfair the Auckland lockdown was in the August outbreak. Far more opposition than in the 1st lockdown. And we had a bunch of right-wing idiots that know nothing of science or epidemiology crowing about how Sweden was right all along and we should follow their example (but look after the elderly a bit better. Circumstance helped Australia and NZ deploy harsh measures in a way that yielded excellent results. If our harsh measures had only yielded similar results to the rest of the west we'd be in a similar boat as they are in now.

[mormont]

We're at the stage of the political cycle when Farage spies a chance to make a desperate lunge for relevance by relaunching his party:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-farage/uks-nigel-farage-set-to-relaunch-brexit-party-as-anti-lockdown-party-idUSKBN27H1TW

Lockdowns don't work, herd immunity, government restrictions intolerable infringement of individual liberty, lock up the vulnerable and let the rest of us get on with it, it's all there. Every radioactively bad take you'd expect. Some of you may die but that's a sacrifice I'm willing to make to get on telly again.

[Which Tyler]

36 minutes ago, mormont said:

We're at the stage of the political cycle when Farage spies a chance to make a desperate lunge for relevance by relaunching his party:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-farage/uks-nigel-farage-set-to-relaunch-brexit-party-as-anti-lockdown-party-idUSKBN27H1TW

Lockdowns don't work, herd immunity, government restrictions intolerable infringement of individual liberty, lock up the vulnerable and let the rest of us get on with it, it's all there. Every radioactively bad take you'd expect. Some of you may die but that's a sacrifice I'm willing to make to get on telly again.

If he'd found some honesty, he'd call it the libertarian party.

But no - he's after people (uninformed idiots in this case) who want electoral form in terms of fairer representation.

[ants]

10 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

If New Zealand had an actual second wave I doubt there would have been good buy in for severe lockdown mkII. And since Australia's second wave was really on Vic, the situation is not the same as things going to pooh across the whole country.

There was a helluva lot of protest and complaint about how unnecessary and unfair the Auckland lockdown was in the August outbreak. Far more opposition than in the 1st lockdown. And we had a bunch of right-wing idiots that know nothing of science or epidemiology crowing about how Sweden was right all along and we should follow their example (but look after the elderly a bit better. Circumstance helped Australia and NZ deploy harsh measures in a way that yielded excellent results. If our harsh measures had only yielded similar results to the rest of the west we'd be in a similar boat as they are in now.

Given the size of Victoria, I'm not sure why its particularly different from doing a national lockdown in the UK. 

My impression is to compare Australia/New Zealand with the UK and Europe is to compare apples and oranges.  Sure, both groups did heavy initial lock downs.  But most European countries didn't do it as harsh as Australia (and New Zealand's was harder), and then when they opened up again it was a lot more full bore.  Certainly significant travel was still permitted.  The UK never I think implemented a quarrantine system.

There are good reasons why Australia and New Zealand had much more effective lock downs than Europe.  One of those was much greater buy in from the population.  

[ljkeane]

17 minutes ago, ants said:

There are good reasons why Australia and New Zealand had much more effective lock downs than Europe.  One of those was much greater buy in from the population.  

Another is they have significantly less international travel than the US and Western Europe. Sure New Zealand in particular probably did manage things better than the rest of the West but geographical luck is a big factor.

[The Anti-Targ]

25 minutes ago, ants said:

Given the size of Victoria, I'm not sure why its particularly different from doing a national lockdown in the UK. 

My impression is to compare Australia/New Zealand with the UK and Europe is to compare apples and oranges.  Sure, both groups did heavy initial lock downs.  But most European countries didn't do it as harsh as Australia (and New Zealand's was harder), and then when they opened up again it was a lot more full bore.  Certainly significant travel was still permitted.  The UK never I think implemented a quarrantine system.

There are good reasons why Australia and New Zealand had much more effective lock downs than Europe.  One of those was much greater buy in from the population.  

NZ and Aus got hit a bit later and with lower numbers. And there is a massive difference between the UK and Victoria. For starters the state govt structure and ability for states to shut borders puts a lot more pressure on Vic to respond and achieve close to elimination like the rest of the states than for the UK with it's single national govt and European neighbours having a similarly difficult time of it.

[A wilding]

I think the problem now is that there is little trust in the government and a widespread feeling that they have no strategy/are making it up as they go along/are doing what the last people who talked to them wanted.

In consequence there are all sorts of people arguing that their sector should be an exception, ranging from those who have a good point to the completely asinine (IDS complaining that the government has "given in to the scientists" and that there is nothing that could justify another lockdown). This has frayed any consensus before lockdown has even started, and I fear that there is going to be widespread non-compliance, which, given that the measures announced are barely enough to get R down below 1.0 (depending on who you ask), makes me deeply pessimistic.

[Chaircat Meow]

7 hours ago, mormont said:

We're at the stage of the political cycle when Farage spies a chance to make a desperate lunge for relevance by relaunching his party:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-farage/uks-nigel-farage-set-to-relaunch-brexit-party-as-anti-lockdown-party-idUSKBN27H1TW

Lockdowns don't work, herd immunity, government restrictions intolerable infringement of individual liberty, lock up the vulnerable and let the rest of us get on with it, it's all there. Every radioactively bad take you'd expect. Some of you may die but that's a sacrifice I'm willing to make to get on telly again.

There is big support for lockdown measures in the country and the issue is liable to have gone away by the next election. 

Not a great idea for a new party really.

 

[Hereward]

It may be enough to keep him going into the era of Brexit betrayal though.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Yeah, but he would've popped up post-Brexit with that shenanigans regardless. So if he wants to continue to get air time, then he'll need a new trick. To Which Tyler is right. It'll be some sorta Libertarian Party with more ouvert racist undertones.

[Hereward]

Obviously it’s worth bearing in mind that the target voters are not necessarily expert in political terminology, but an avowedly libertarian stance is not going to work on the target voters in the midlands and north. They’re largely communitarian, i.e left wing economically but very right-wing socially and culturally.

In fact, I just read an analysis of the 2019 election which put the Labour defectors in the Red Wall as to the left of Corbyn, at least in some respects, economically, but actually to the right not only of Tory MPs but even of Tory members, socially and culturally.

[Maltaran]

Not sure if this is the right thread, but Johnny Depp lost his libel case against the Sun today

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54779430

[Pebble thats Stubby]

37 minutes ago, Maltaran said:

Not sure if this is the right thread, but Johnny Depp lost his libel case against the Sun today

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54779430

I admit to feeling rather conflicted about this.  I mean I'm Glad the wife beating peace of shit lost, and I hope he looses his appeal as well.  On the other hand its the Sun.  Anything that costs them a lot of money and potentially hastens its bankruptcy has at least done one good thing.

in case its unclear I did not in any way want Depp to win damages and or clear his name.

 

I think instead we should acknowledge Amber Heard with everything she has gone through and to be made to go though all of it again in court.

[Maltaran]

2 hours ago, Pebble thats Stubby said:

I admit to feeling rather conflicted about this.  I mean I'm Glad the wife beating peace of shit lost, and I hope he looses his appeal as well.  On the other hand its the Sun.  Anything that costs them a lot of money and potentially hastens its bankruptcy has at least done one good thing.

There’s no indication in the article if who’s paying costs, and there is still the appeal.

[Heartofice]

2 hours ago, Pebble thats Stubby said:

I admit to feeling rather conflicted about this.  I mean I'm Glad the wife beating peace of shit lost, and I hope he looses his appeal as well.  On the other hand its the Sun.  Anything that costs them a lot of money and potentially hastens its bankruptcy has at least done one good thing.

in case its unclear I did not in any way want Depp to win damages and or clear his name.

 

I think instead we should acknowledge Amber Heard with everything she has gone through and to be made to go though all of it again in court.

Having seen just how many incidences of violence were brought up you have to wonder what Depp was thinking even going to court.