US Election Predictions Thread

[alguien]

7 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Trump will win.

I predict Trump will crumple the Democrats chances at the attaining the blue wall once again by perhaps even wider margins than he did last time.

I predict he will also capture Minnesota which Clinton barely held onto in 2016.

It May still be close, but I fundamentally believe Trump will take it

Arizona will not be taken by Biden.

Nor will Texas, or any other traditionally red state Dems had salivated over this election.

Florida will be Trump’s as well.

The stories of seniors defecting to Biden will prove to be just that; just stories.

And this may be sound tin foil haty but I do think he’ll outperform his margins none-whites greater than the modest gains a lot of polls shown him having. Not at 50 or even 30 percent.

But but over the typical ten Republicans could expect.

I expect this drive to be key in uneducated blacks as opposed to college educated blacks.

I predict many will  take Trump’s victory as illegitimate proof that their views alone constitute the norm Even if Trump only won the popular vote(which may be unlikely for him), by a million, or not have won the popular vote at all.

Because they lack nuance to see America isn't dark red, or blue, but a largely a distinct purple.

Aren't you a ray of fucking sunshine. 

[Varysblackfyre321]

6 minutes ago, alguien said:

Aren't you a ray of fucking sunshine. 

Tomorrow may be a foggy and rainy day.

Saying it will for sure be sunny won't automatically make it sunny. 

[alguien]

3 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Tomorrow may be a foggy and rainy day.

Saying it will for sure be sunny won't automatically make it sunny. 

Yeah but the opposite logic applies. Saying it will be foggy and rainy doesn't make it foggy and rainy.

It helps to, you know, look at a forecast. 

I mean, at least my fellow Washingtonian Kalbear's pessimism is based in some logic. (I may not agree with all of it, but I understand it.) Whereas you basically wrote the equivalent of "WOE UNTO US ALL SINNERS AND REPENT FOR THE END IS NIGH!" with no basis for it beyond fear in your gut. 

 

 

[Varysblackfyre321]

36 minutes ago, alguien said:

Yeah but the opposite logic applies. Saying it will be foggy and rainy doesn't make it foggy and rainy.

True.

36 minutes ago, alguien said:

It helps to, you know, look at a forecast. 

Yes.

36 minutes ago, alguien said:

I mean, at least my fellow Washingtonian Kalbear's pessimism is based in some logic. (I may not agree with all of it, but I understand it.) Whereas you basically wrote the equivalent of "WOE UNTO US ALL SINNERS AND REPENT FOR THE END IS NIGH!" with no basis for it beyond fear in your gut. 

Eh. If I said the exact opposite and posited Biden would cruise to an easy victory in a landside, would you chastize for being overly optimistic?

Clinton did keep Minnesota with numbers with a stronger lead than what Biden currently has. If similar polling error-which can happen-does befal the state it's probable Biden will lose it.

Trump has made some gains among people of color--particulary men. Saying he’ll outperform a typical Republican slightly isn't unreasonable.

I think it's unreasonable to states that have traditionally voted red for decades to vote red for Trump albeit possibly narrowly.

I mean I could be all wrong about this, so check with me on Wednesday, 

Also I am pulling for Biden, but this thread isn’t titled “Liberal/left-wing predictions for the election.”

For all you knew I was conservative republican giving the optimistic predictions for me.

They’re not. I do not want these things to happen.

[alguien]

9 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Eh. If I said the exact opposite and posited Biden would cruise to an easy victory in a landside, would you chastize for being overly optimistic?

Clinton did keep Minnesota with numbers with a stronger lead than what Biden currently has. 

If you made the similar prediction in the opposite direction, I’d disagree with that as well (though I probably would wish it were true). 

Look, I don’t think it’s in the bag for Biden, there are too many variables. But I’m... very very cautiously optimistic. At the worst I think there will be polling errors in states that benefit both sides. 

Like with Minnesota... what you’re doing is cherry-picking data to support a fear. These are not the same circumstances and also most polls have tried to correct for their errors in 2016. Now, it’s entirely possible (perhaps likely) that there are whole new factors that haven’t been accounted for. But to predict that these all go trumps way doesn’t make sense to me. 

[DMC]

1 hour ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Clinton did keep Minnesota with numbers with a stronger lead than what Biden currently has.

This is wrong.  Clinton had a 5.8% lead in Minnesota on election eve (and a 5.2% lead six days away).  Biden currently has an 8.1% lead.

[Inkdaub]

Guy on the radio earlier said Trump's chances of winning are the chances you will flip a coin and land on heads four times in a row.  It scared me as I clutched my steering wheel and thought...only four times?

[Inkdaub]

14 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

Go ahead and try it. You have to get heads four times in a row.

No no no... I'll do it and then Trump will win.  I'm not even touching a quarter for a week.

[drawkcabi]

23 hours ago, Relic said:

im just gonna predict an epic flustercluck to close out the year. Regardless of who wins, we all lose. 

I'm not predicting that, just bracing for it.

 

For the last 4 months my attitude has been: Don't trust the polls.

However, in the last few weeks it changed to: Biden is so far ahead, he's beyond the margin of error in some pivotal states, so even if I'm not trusting the polls to be exact maybe I can trust them as bellwethers that Biden has the momentum.

Then in the last few days I've had some bad feelings. Hearing about Republicans registering many more new voters than democrats. Early mail in ballots received have either been republican/Democrat in equal amounts or slightly more Republicans than Democrats. How effective will the Republican party's effort to suppress the vote be? And just a sinking feeling that somehow Trump voters are trolling the pollsters...I know that one isn't likely but it's still a persistent feeling.

So my attitude as of right now is: Don't trust the polls. 

 

 

Also, keep staying well supplied with Pepto Bismal...

[Maithanet]

18 minutes ago, drawkcabi said:

Then in the last few days I've had some bad feelings. Hearing about Republicans registering many more new voters than democrats. Early mail in ballots received have either been republican/Democrat in equal amounts or slightly more Republicans than Democrats. How effective will the Republican party's effort to suppress the vote be? And just a sinking feeling that somehow Trump voters are trolling the pollsters...I know that one isn't likely but it's still a persistent feeling.

So my attitude as of right now is: Don't trust the polls.

Whether or not you should trust the polls, you DEFINITELY shouldn't trust political takes based on early voting data.

[drawkcabi]

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

Whether or not you should trust the polls, you DEFINITELY shouldn't trust political takes based on early voting data.

 I'm not trusting that either. It's just helping to add to my need for that Pepto...

 

[IheartIheartTesla]

If you flip a coin 200 times, the odds that you get 6 heads or tails in a row approaches 1 (for 4 in a row you will need fewer coin flips). There was a famous story of a professor who gave his students this assignment and to record their coin flips, and he always knew the ones who faked it were the ones who DIDNT have the coin flips line up at some point.

Luckily we do our elections only once.

[Maithanet]

5 minutes ago, drawkcabi said:

 I'm not trusting that either. It's just helping to add to my need for that Pepto...

Plenty of that, although I am getting more chest/head pain, my stomach is strong. 

[SpaceChampion]

I made a bingo card for election predictions:
https://imgur.com/gallery/JkWyorf

[JGP]

On 10/28/2020 at 7:55 AM, Relic said:

im just gonna predict an epic flustercluck to close out the year. Regardless of who wins, we all lose. 

Sentiments of this type perplex me. A Biden win is a legitimately big step in the right direction. Work from there. A Trump win sets the US back another decade, or two. Like, I get the progressive cynicism bro, but there's losing and then there's losing. 

[SeanF]

My gut feeling is Biden wins about 50% to 45%.

He flips Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Florida, giving 320 votes in the Electoral College.

The Democrats and allies win 51 Senate seats to 49 Republicans.  The Democrats retain the House.

[felice]

6 hours ago, Inkdaub said:

Guy on the radio earlier said Trump's chances of winning are the chances you will flip a coin and land on heads four times in a row.  It scared me as I clutched my steering wheel and thought...only four times?

Fortunately, the election isn't being decided by coin toss. Those percentages aren't really the chances of him winning, they're just a measure of the level of uncertainty about the accuracy of the polls. If you wiped everyone's memory at the end of election day and reset the clocks to the beginning of the day, you'd get pretty much the same result every time (at least initially; if you kept doing it repeatedly, after a while people would get freaked out by the unseasonable weather and other anomalies, and of course some former voters would die every day).

[DMC]

30 minutes ago, felice said:

at least initially; if you kept doing it repeatedly, after a while people would get freaked out by the unseasonable weather and other anomalies, and of course some former voters would die every day

Or they'd start doing this:

 

[Relic]

3 hours ago, JEORDHl said:

Sentiments of this type perplex me. A Biden win is a legitimately big step in the right direction. Work from there. A Trump win sets the US back another decade, or two. Like, I get the progressive cynicism bro, but there's losing and then there's losing. 

A Biden win brings about a Trump ... what's the word...shit fit? And that brings...well, who the fuck knows. Depends how crazy his hardcore peoples are. 

 

A Trump win brings about...well who the fuck knows, but it'll be worse than 2020, for sure. 

 

So there you go. Whoever wins, it's us who lose. Pandora's box has been opened. I know you have kids, and you need to be optimistic. Sorry I'm not the person to provide that ray of sunshine. 

 

I get  what you're saying, but seeing how the develop world mostly dropped the ball big time on Covid, how its fucking Novemeber and somehow we still havent figured out how to protect our at risk, how to invest in healthcare, how to keep going without locking it all down...im totally and completely over in believing that some old white guy is gonna save us from ourselves. 

[A Prince of Dorne]

5 hours ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

If you flip a coin 200 times, the odds that you get 6 heads or tails in a row approaches 1 (for 4 in a row you will need fewer coin flips). There was a famous story of a professor who gave his students this assignment and to record their coin flips, and he always knew the ones who faked it were the ones who DIDNT have the coin flips line up at some point.

Luckily we do our elections only once.

Was it Feynman? 

My professor in college Statistics did this to us on the first day