A Prince of Dorne Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 It may be wishful thinking on Ohio just because I live here, but there feels like real momentum for Biden. Obama/Biden did win twice here, after all. Map: https://www.270towin.com/maps/Y22mB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IheartIheartTesla Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Famous story. not famous professor (although calling it famous is a bit of a stretch). It was Prof. Hill at Georgia Tech. Also, my example was a bit facetious, since a better analogue is just running the election 100 times and Trump wins ~15 times. The coin flip was already an analogy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varysblackfyre321 Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 22 hours ago, alguien said: If you made the similar prediction in the opposite direction, I’d disagree with that as well (though I probably would wish it were true). Look, I don’t think it’s in the bag for Biden, there are too many variables. But I’m... very very cautiously optimistic. At the worst I think there will be polling errors in states that benefit both sides. Like with Minnesota... what you’re doing is cherry-picking data to support a fear. These are not the same circumstances and also most polls have tried to correct for their errors in 2016. Now, it’s entirely possible (perhaps likely) that there are whole new factors that haven’t been accounted for. But to predict that these all go trumps way doesn’t make sense to me. To the bolded at worst you think Biden will win albeit narrowly due to polling errors that would benefit both sides? I’m sorry I don’t want to misread you here. 21 hours ago, DMC said: This is wrong. Clinton had a 5.8% lead in Minnesota on election eve (and a 5.2% lead six days away). Biden currently has an 8.1% lead. I was more looking at the numbers from RCP. Only one poll in the weeks leading up to the election showed a tight race with Clinton and Trump being tied. It was high single digits generally. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mn/minnesota_trump_vs_clinton-5591.html Biden’s lead being 4.7 points there right now doesn’t exactly evoke a lot of confidence if you want him to win no? And yes I understand lower popularity for third party candidates, Biden is way less despised than Clinton there are less undecided, but seriously with all that in mind I still think it’s reasonable to see Trump pulling an upset there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said: I was more looking at the numbers from RCP. RCP only included two polls in the entire month of October for Minnesota in 2016 - and none in November. That's not an aggregate of polls. As for Biden's current lead in RCP's average, I refer you to prior statements on their cherrypicking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inkdaub Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 23 hours ago, Leap said: It's alright everyone, I did it and it was tails-heads-tails-heads. You're welcome, America. You truly have ice water in your veins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 On the bright side of things (?!) Walmart has ordered all displays of guns and ammunition in their US stores to be removed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 19 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said: On the bright side of things (?!) Walmart has ordered all displays of guns and ammunition in their US stores to be removed. The could have a weird ripple effect that causes overall gun sales to increase over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry of the Lawn Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said: The could have a weird ripple effect that causes overall gun sales to increase over the weekend. a true boon for small businesses over corporate America #winning #somuchwinning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martell Spy Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 19 hours ago, Relic said: A Biden win brings about a Trump ... what's the word...shit fit? And that brings...well, who the fuck knows. Depends how crazy his hardcore peoples are. A Trump win brings about...well who the fuck knows, but it'll be worse than 2020, for sure. So there you go. Whoever wins, it's us who lose. Pandora's box has been opened. I know you have kids, and you need to be optimistic. Sorry I'm not the person to provide that ray of sunshine. I get what you're saying, but seeing how the develop world mostly dropped the ball big time on Covid, how its fucking Novemeber and somehow we still havent figured out how to protect our at risk, how to invest in healthcare, how to keep going without locking it all down...im totally and completely over in believing that some old white guy is gonna save us from ourselves. One the one hand, Democrats might keep power 8 to 12 years. Oh the other, the Supreme Court is likely to fuck us all over and Democrats probably won't do anything about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Chataya de Fleury said: Not really - they have removed *displays*, they will still sell on request. Even just a whiff of “they’re commin’ for our guns” will make a dude who owns 20 guns go out and buy five more, especially just before an election which looks to be a blue wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kairparavel Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 Someone is predicting some sort of unrest because businesses in the DC downtown area are boarding up their windows, much like they did in June. https://wtop.com/dc/2020/10/bid-boarded-up-downtown-dc-businesses-making-their-own-decisions/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Chataya de Fleury said: My second ex had anywhere between 40 and 60 at any given time, but was smarter than that. He’d be in selling mode right now for top dollar. But, you’re correct - that is why the rabble increases gun sales around this kind of change. I mean, that isn't the worst strategy. But I'll never understand men who collect guns, cars and especially shoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigFatCoward Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: I mean, that isn't the worst strategy. But I'll never understand men who collect guns, cars and especially shoes. I have 0, 1, 1(if we dont count trainers). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S John Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 There’s a gun and especially ammo shortage right now and there has been for a while. If you went out today and wanted to buy a specific gun you will likely have trouble finding it. 9mm handguns and pump action shotguns have been particularly tough to get according to a gun store employee I talked to recently. And it isn’t just typical conservative gun nuts buying them. Everyone is buying them. There was an episode of The Daily about this earlier in the week. My .02 is that it’ll slow down after the election is settled. People are on edge right now and have been since March when Covid started. At first we had the survivalist / walking dead types buying up guns to prepare for the imminent collapse of society, then we had all the unrest surrounding racial justice prompting folks on both sides of that issue to arm up, and on top of all of it a contentious presidential election that feels like a very significant fork in the road for the country. In a country where guns are pretty readily available all of that fear and uncertainty adds up to a gun buying bonanza and let’s hope that’s all it adds up to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alguien Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 12 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said: To the bolded at worst you think Biden will win albeit narrowly due to polling errors that would benefit both sides? I’m sorry I don’t want to misread you here. I think Biden will win the popular vote. By what margin, I'm less sure, but my guess is 7%. With polling errors, I expect there to be some due to quarantine and this president introducing uncertainty, but what I was arguing against was that all these errors would go in Trump's favor. In some states, I think it's just as likely they're underpolling Biden's support as in other states they're overpolling it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S John Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 9 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said: I have 0, 1, 1(if we dont count trainers). It’s not that uncommon for younger dudes in the US to have sneaker collections and I suspect that’s what @Tywin et al. was thinking about. full disclosure I think I kind of have a lot of shoes though I’m not collecting them or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S John Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 5 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said: I trust in my handy machete. I keep it sharp. I have a machete as well. I used it this summer to battle some poison oak in my yard and somehow lost the exchange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S John Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said: Pumpkin once lost an exchange with the machete. He was cutting poison Ivy and cut towards himself, not away. Lots of blood. Stitches internally in the muscle and external stitches to close. Ouch! I just ended up with the rash all over both arms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 1 hour ago, BigFatCoward said: I have 0, 1, 1(if we dont count trainers). You really should save up and spring for a second shoe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 1 hour ago, S John said: It’s not that uncommon for younger dudes in the US to have sneaker collections and I suspect that’s what @Tywin et al. was thinking about. full disclosure I think I kind of have a lot of shoes though I’m not collecting them or anything. This is what I was wondering; I don't "collect" shoes, but I have probably more pairs than lots of men: 1 pair bl/1pair br dress shoes, 5 pairs casual shoes, 4 pairs sneakers (2 running, 2 x-trainers), and my ratty old sneakers I use to mow the lawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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