US Politics: Georgia on Our Minds

[DMC]

11 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Election day voting was ~20% and was heavily Republican (but less so than mail-in was for Democrats). 

Yep, roughly one million out of five million total voted on election day in November.  Both Trump and Perdue got about 60% of that vote.

[BigFatCoward]

During the presidential every Tom, Dick and Harry was giving exact predictions of what they expected to happen. Nobody is saying jack on this?

Did everyone get burned by being completely wrong and afraid to stick their head above the parapet again? 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Just now, Chataya de Fleury said:

You can customize your service, Scot. I have had Uber drivers offer a "free" bottle of water, mints/gum, etc. There are also options in the app as per did I prefer the vehicle warmer or colder, conversation or not, and what kind of music, if any.

I always start my rides by asking the rider if the temperature in the car is comfortable and letting them know I’m happy to adjust to their prefered temperature.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

We are roughly one and a half Scaramuccis away from Biden getting sworn in and officially taking office.

All the wailing and flailing by orange one doesn't change it.

[DMC]

11 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Did everyone get burned by being completely wrong and afraid to stick their head above the parapet again?

I think burned out, too.  Plus there's much less data, much more uncertainty, the nature of runoffs means it's a tossup anyway, and Georgia obviously overall was a tossup in November.  Since it's two contests you could just look at it like a basic prisoner's dilemma.  Predicting a split decision would be the "cooperate, cooperate" outcome, so I'll go with that.  Although I do wish I could solve the prisoner's dilemma like this guy:

 

[SeanF]

24 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

During the presidential every Tom, Dick and Harry was giving exact predictions of what they expected to happen. Nobody is saying jack on this?

Did everyone get burned by being completely wrong and afraid to stick their head above the parapet again? 

The problem is the last two polls, by Fox and Trafalgar, have the candidates within 1% of each other, or tied.  

My best guess would be that it's a 1:1 split. 

[Martell Spy]

39 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

During the presidential every Tom, Dick and Harry was giving exact predictions of what they expected to happen. Nobody is saying jack on this?

Did everyone get burned by being completely wrong and afraid to stick their head above the parapet again? 

Absolutely. However I'm much more right than I was in 2004 and 2016 when I predicted Kerry and Clinton wins, since I did predict Biden winning.

[Maithanet]

Historically Republicans do better in Georgia Runoffs.  And Republicans did (slightly) better than Democrats in both races in November.  So my thinking throughout November was that it was a done deal and Republicans would take it.  I am less pessimistic now, as there have been some positive signs in the turnout data we've seen that Dems are turning out.  But I still think a Republican sweep is the most likely outcome.  Leofller +0.2, Purdue +0.9. 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

I haven’t made predictions in a very long time.

[Kalbear]

Definitely TWoW is coming out in 2020

[IheartIheartTesla]

1 hour ago, BigFatCoward said:

During the presidential every Tom, Dick and Harry was giving exact predictions of what they expected to happen. Nobody is saying jack on this?

Did everyone get burned by being completely wrong and afraid to stick their head above the parapet again? 

I already made my prediction, Warnock by 2 and Osoff by 0.5, the latter triggering a recount.

[Fragile Bird]

I was wondering who the woman lawyer on the Trump call was, Cleta Mitchell. As an aside, who the hell names their child Cleta? 

From an article in the WaPo, I see she goes way back in the art of claiming Democrats were stealing elections from Republicans. She worked on the campaign of Sharron Angle, who ran against Harry M. Reid of Nevada in 2010. Mitchell wrote a letter soliciting campaign contributions, alleging "Reid intends to steal this election if he can't win it outright...UNDERSTAND everything we have worked for in the last year could be destroyed by dirty tricks and criminal acts". She offered as evidence the fact that teachers' union representatives were offering Starbucks cards to people who voted for Reid. The SoS dismissed her complaint and Reid won.

But hell, she used to be a leading Democrat in Oklahoma! She helped lead the fight to get Oklahoma's Equal Rights Amendment for women passed, and made history as the first woman in the nation to to chair a House budget and appropriations committee. 

She got started to get disillusioned with the Democratic Party after her second husband, Dale Mitchell, chairman of the board of Fidelity National Bank, was convicted and jailed for bank fraud, in 1992. She later said it was because of "overeaching government regulation". She then moved to Washington to become director of the Term Limits Institute, advocating for states to have the right to impose term limits on their representatives. That was ruled to be unconstitutional by the SCOTUS. She then switched her political registration to Independent and then to Republican. She called herself a "principled conservative Democrat" and started hanging out with Grover Norquist. With her insider view of the Democratic Party she advised Republicans about the way the party operated. Soon she did work on many Republican campaigns and for the NRA, and on campaign finance, saying Democrats had weaponized campaign finance to limit the power of conservatives and shut down opposition. She was one of the lawyers acting on behalf of conservative groups the Tea Party said were targetted by the IRA.

She works for a large law firm, Foley & Lardner, who apparently were taken by surprise by her role in Saturday's phone call.

Interesting.

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, SeanF said:

The problem is the last two polls, by Fox and Trafalgar, have the candidates within 1% of each other, or tied.  

My best guess would be that it's a 1:1 split. 

I doubt there would be a split decision. There's little reason to see why voters would split their tickets.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Anyonw think the outcome today may influence the certification of the Presidential Election tomorrow?

[DanteGabriel]

Weird shit going on in the Pennsylvania legislature today. Republicans in the state Senate are refusing to swear in a Democratic Senator, because his opponent has not yet conceded (though the election was certified).

When the Dem Lieutenant Governor presiding over the swearing in refused to play along, they tried to eject him and had one of their own preside over the session.

The Republican Party is a criminal enterprise that should be burned to the ground.

 

[Maithanet]

7 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Anyonw think the outcome today may influence the certification of the Presidential Election tomorrow?

I doubt it.  Although I suppose if the Dems win both then the crowd outside in DC will be even angrier. 

[Reny of Storms End]

4 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said:

Weird shit going on in the Pennsylvania legislature today. Republicans in the state Senate are refusing to swear in a Democratic Senator, because his opponent has not yet conceded (though the election was certified).

When the Dem Lieutenant Governor presiding over the swearing in refused to play along, they tried to eject him and had one of their own preside over the session.

The Republican Party is a criminal enterprise that should be burned to the ground.

 

Was just coming to post this story. 

 

It is so frustrating to just have to sit and watch this happen. The feeling of hopelessness sucks. Maybe I'm wrong and the Dems will do something about this, besides hoping for national attention/outrage to sway the decisions. So disgusted and saddened with the state I live in right now. 

[GrimTuesday]

Iran has now done more to bring Trump to justice than Biden (or any other Democrat would do including Bernie) will do.

 

[Liffguard]

2 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I cannot set prices but I can decline a ride... with cause.  Someone refuses to wear a mask, doesn’t show up, and a laundry list of other reasons.  What do you mean “customize my services” I take riders from A to B sometimes with stops in between...

I think not being able to set your own prices should mean you're not entirely a contractor. Which is kind of what I mean about Uber wanting to treat people as employees in some ways and contractors in others.

Can you advertise independently? Accept different payment schemes rather than Uber's (like, I dunno, take a flat fee for a set time rather than charge by the mile)? How much control do you have over the details?

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

5 minutes ago, Liffguard said:

I think not being able to set your own prices should mean you're not entirely a contractor. Which is kind of what I mean about Uber wanting to treat people as employees in some ways and contractors in others.

Can you advertise independently? Accept different payment schemes rather than Uber's (like, I dunno, take a flat fee for a set time rather than charge by the mile)? How much control do you have over the details?

I disagree.  Attorneys are “independent contractors” and our clients have the ability to approve or disapprove settlements.  We would be acting unethically if we agreed to settle a case without our client’s permission.

I see driving rates for Uber rides as analogous.