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US Politics: Autogolpe big or golpe home


Kalbear

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7 minutes ago, briantw said:

While I agree that the EC is dumb and that the presidency should be by popular vote like every other election, this was unavoidable.  Maybe it wouldn't have happened on this specific day, but Trump has been riling up his army of dipshits for five years now.  Violence was always inevitable when he lost.  

The violence today wasn't a result of the Electoral College.  It was the result of idiots who legitimately don't believe that Trump lost the election, and those people would still exist and Trump would be fanning the flames even if the election was decided by popular vote.

I disagree. Were it not for the EC, there would be none of this "If we can only flip this state or that state" nonsense.

4 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

One of the silly things about all of this is that Republicans are undercutting the EC which is their best political tool. They are risking a bad own goal here.

I have told people, often, I'm not concerned about the usual stupidity we're supposed to be concerned about. No, North Korea isn't going to wake up one day in a particularly suicidal mood and vaporize an American city with a missile they don't have. Same for Iran. Those regimes have their own malignancies but purposeful self destruction isn't one of them. I don't care about killer bees either. What keeps me ups the possibility of such a lopsided EC win that results in scenes like today unfolding everywhere. 

Theres some Ivy league Poli Sci department (that I'm too lazy to look up right now) that does analysis based on voting population, voting district and electoral college formulation. It answers one question: what's the minimum vote needed to win the presidency? At last count, it was between 24-25% I assume the third party vote is set to zero or fixed at some historically relevant value.

Clearly this is not possible. Not just because the votes would have to land *exactly* right, but because it assumes that the candidate selection process itself is random. It isn't. No modern major party would ever nominate a candidate that is that unpopular. Even Bush's approval rating when leaving office was higher than that.

However, something like 60/40 or 55/45, particularly in an era of gerrymandering and voter suppression? I think that's not only possible but inevitable. We could see the in our lifetime. If you have a candidate that wins the popular vote with a 10-20% spread and still loses the election; mark my words there will be blood in the streets.

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13 minutes ago, Ran said:

I think Mitt and some of the others really need to consider going to extreme lengths to push for serious consequences within the caucus for those who enabled and abetted this. Hawley, Cruz, et. al. 

I'd say it's incumbent on McConnell and Thune.  As for consequences, probably the best to hope for is censure and stripping of committee ranks/assignments.

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1 minute ago, Maithanet said:

Nothing that Trump or the mob did today surprised me.  But I am very surprised and very angry at Capitol Police.  I am someone who generally tries to give police the benefit of the doubt, but it is very hard to ascribe this to mere incompetence.  Someone wanted to let this happen.  

Agreed.  

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11 minutes ago, DMC said:

I'd say it's incumbent on McConnell and Thune.  As for consequences, probably the best to hope for is censure and stripping of committee ranks/assignments.

Yes, but I don't think they'll do anything unless some of the reasonably moral Republicans actually apply extreme pressure.

Also; Twitter just announced that Trump's account has been locked down for 12 hours, and will remain locked if he refuses to remove the tweets they've removed from public view.

Guessing that the "lid" the WH announced coincided with him exploding wildly over that bit of news... Wonder if his Parler account will go wildly active now? Or FB page? Or will he force the use of the POTUS account?

This is genuinely an insane moment, far beyond anything I expected. Protesters outside the Capitol, I expected. Trump continuing his confabulations, I expected. Maybe some violence outside the Capitol. But one of the mob killed (seemingly by police/security when she appears to have tried to climb through a broken window in a barricaded door) and swarms of them in the Senate and House floors... this is absurd.

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2 minutes ago, fionwe1987 said:

How can anyone truly be surprised by the police doing this badly after the dual visuals of the BLM protests and the anti-mask rallies? Which sand pit was your head buried in?

The Michigan protests at least some what caught police off guard, and thus thier response was embarrassing, but much more excusable. 

That is not comparable to letting armed thugs announce thier intention to storm the capital building weeks in advance, and then show up and do it with only token resistance from the capital police.

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I'm supremely grateful and relieved (was my first thought learning of Them breaking in) They didn't get Their hands on any of the women They've been threatening for years with the most horrendous desires of torture, degradation, rape and death.  Don't forget that gallows with a noose erected.

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14 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Nothing that Trump or the mob did today surprised me.  But I am very surprised and very angry at Capitol Police.  I am someone who generally tries to give police the benefit of the doubt, but it is very hard to ascribe this to mere incompetence.  Someone wanted to let this happen.  

I'm not at all surprised. The Venn diagram of MAGA chuds and cops is a blurry circle.

 

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1 minute ago, Maithanet said:

The Michigan protests at least some what caught police off guard, and thus thier response was embarrassing, but much more excusable. 

That is not comparable to letting armed thugs announce thier intention to storm the capital building weeks in advance, and then show up and do it with only token resistance from the capital police.

Michigan is not the only place this happened. And what of Portland?

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1 minute ago, Ran said:

Yes, but I don't think they'll do anything unless some of the reasonably moral Republicans actually apply extreme pressure.

Yeah, fair point.  Romney, Murkowski, Collins, Portman, Sasse, Toomey - even Cotton considering his recent position taking.  

9 minutes ago, fionwe1987 said:

How can anyone truly be surprised by the police doing this badly after the dual visuals of the BLM protests and the anti-mask rallies? Which sand pit was your head buried in?

Well, I don't think anyone's surprised by this, no.

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2 minutes ago, S John said:

It has been self evident that much of Trumps constituency will never leave him. Curious about if this will finally break the spell for some of the less insane who have voted for him.

Yeah - I have been playing several “What the fuck did you think would happen when you went along with Trump’s line that he won?” conversations with relatives.  Not to mention all of the police enforcement double-standards blatantly on display - if a bunch of fucking yahoos can come into your capitol building, you’re failed as a party of “law and order”, and “national security”

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