Ukraine 21: On the Attack with a Giant Phallic Spear

[Werthead]

1 hour ago, Wilbur said:

The thing about the threat of a tactical nuclear strike by Russia is first, what are they going to target?  Ukraine doesn't have huge troop formations clumped up together, so will the targets be civilian instead?

And second, the response to a tactical nuclear strike doesn't have to be nuclear.  Consider that once Russia uses a nuclear weapon in Ukraine, the US response is likely to be that any Russian asset worldwide is a valid target.  Russian subs suddenly fail to report home, Russian contractors in Africa disappear, Arctic installations receive MOAB, etc. etc.  Add the rest of NATO to the repost, and a conventional response to Russian nuclear aggression would be devastating.

Third, once Russian actually uses a nuclear weapon, it can no longer hold the threat out as a political lever.  What is left as a threat after that, since Russia's conventional forces have been shown to be a hollow reed?

The idea would be to demonstrate resolve to force Ukraine to the bargaining table, not achieve a military breakthrough with the use of a weapon. There are lots of factors in play and variables, including do they use a bomb on a field dialled right down as a demonstration, or even conduct a test on Russian soil as an initial small step?

The conventional response would be a massive single strike which would probably hit targets right across Ukraine, including targets that Ukraine has had trouble with, maybe including all remaining AA assets and as may of Russia's artillery pieces as they can find (since they've starved their supply chains, Ukraine hasn't been focusing on destroying the actual artillery guns since their supplies of artillery ammo are relatively limited). Above that is the escalation of NATO simply entering the war on Ukraine's side and conducting conventional strikes on Ukrainian soil alone, with the guarantee of not targeting anything on Russian soil that does not target them first (AA, mostly).

Once you cross that threshold, that might then giving Putin a green light to launch an all-out attack on the west, but without a conventional military capability to speak off (all 20 of his latest generation fighters are not going to last five minutes against NATO's several hundred), he immediately has to go to more nuclear threats, this time maybe directly threatening cities. But the escalationary threshold is lopsided, as blowing up, say, Berlin, would not be seen as a rational or proportionate response to targeting military targets alone in a third country (no matter what horseshit he sells about the annexation). And of course the risk then is that Russia itself really is at risk of annihilation and at that point someone is much more likely to put bullet in his head then risk themselves and their families and everyone they know, which they're probably not going to do over a more limited tactical strike.

The whole thing is a risky situation, but the most reassuring thing is that Putin does seem to value his own life very strongly (hence the ludicrous anti-COVID tables) and it's probably unlikely he will put himself in personal jeopardy in that way, from either dying in WWIII or providing someone close to him with the excuse needed to kill him.

The main problem, as that podcast indicated, is if he gets to the stage of feeling trapped and with his life in possible jeopardy (even if Russia is not directly at existential risk) and he gives the order, and the person on duty that day is a brainwashed stooge happy to go along with it.

[Kalnestk Oblast]

Heh. Trent T did an analysis of Russian use of arty vs Iraq in the 80s and found that Iraq - which by most accounts had a fairly inferior training and didn't do great - was incredibly better than what Russian forces are acting like now.

 

[Arakasi]

Thanks Saddam for using all of the 40s-50s Soviet munitions I guess. Crazy how much they were spending per day on it. Guess oil will pay for anything.

[IFR]

One of my favorite YouTube personalities, Dr David Ruzic, just released a video evaluating the situation of the occupied nuclear reactors in Ukraine, particularly the shelling. It's a very good take, and accurate (though when he says elements he means isotopes).

From :53 to 2:56 he goes into some basics about reactors and fissioning, since this video is intended for a broad audience (and this is worthwhile for those uninitiated in these basics). But if you're already familiar with the basics, you wouldn't miss out on anything by skipping it.

It's a level-headed and informative analysis (unlike the constant hysteria that the media loves to peddle).

 

Edited October 8, 2022 by IFR

[ThinkerX]

Given the dismal upkeep of almost all other equipment in the current Russia military - along with monumental incompetence and rampant theft - I find myself wondering if the Russians won't somehow manage to nuke themselves by accident. Maybe a 'dirty bomb' type deal, with ramped up Chernobyl levels of fallout across much of Russia proper.

 

[Maithanet]

 

 

 

[A True Kaniggit]

Does anyone else feel like they would’ve done a better job as dictator of Russia than Putin has?

I mean, I didn’t play all of these Paradox games exclusively on Ironman mode for nothing. 

Edited October 8, 2022 by A True Kaniggit

[Varysblackfyre321]

2 hours ago, A True Kaniggit said:

Does anyone else feel like they would’ve done a better job as dictator of Russia than Putin has?

I think Putin saw too many Russia strong memes and got it into his head he must be a military genius with a powerful military.

[Kalnestk Oblast]

So this thread from a couple weeks ago points out how potentially very very screwed the Russians are in the south. The Kersh bridge was possibly the last usable rail system that can supply anything close to the southern front. Prior to this it was a clear worry for Russia, but that assumed high tech long range western missiles. Instead, using either partisans or special forces or something lower tech Ukraine, on putins birthday, just caused the entire southern front to be only suppliable by truck.

Previously this caused the collapse of the kyiv and izyum fronts. 

 

[Derfel Cadarn]

Nothing to see! The Russians are merely adjusting the bridge so they can drive repair crews to the Moskva

[Varysblackfyre321]

3 minutes ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

Nothing to see! The Russians are merely adjusting the bridge so they can drive repair crews to the Moskva

The bridge is actually stronger today than it was yesterday.

In fact there was never a bridge.

[Werthead]

The Russians are very heavily pushing that this was an accident, presumably because 1) they don't need to retaliate, or 2) it really was an accident and after all these months of speculation about how Ukraine could or should take out the bridge, Russia has just done it themselves, which is incredibly on-brand.

[Makk]

Clearly a driver threw his cigarette butt out of the window. 

[Derfel Cadarn]

 

[SeanF]

It’s not all bad news for Putin.

Steven Segal was singing his praises on Instagram.

[Heartofice]

 

 

[The Anti-Targ]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

The Russians are very heavily pushing that this was an accident, presumably because 1) they don't need to retaliate, or 2) it really was an accident and after all these months of speculation about how Ukraine could or should take out the bridge, Russia has just done it themselves, which is incredibly on-brand.

If they can pass it off as an accident it would avoid them having to admit that there is an organised Ukrainian resistance in Crimea.

[Derfel Cadarn]

 

[Varysblackfyre321]

1 hour ago, Makk said:

Clearly a driver threw his cigarette butt out of the window. 

Two things not do in Russia: don’t smoke and don’t stand near any windows.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Video of the Kerch Bridge from Malcolm Nance: