Ukraine: Breakthroughs… the vast majority of us hope…

[Zorral]

3 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Not bothering to click/read it.

I just assume that Farrow arrived at the conclusion, that Musk (via star link) plays a decissive role in the conflict, and that he has cut some of his support to Ukraine (star link coverage). If so, nothing new. But welcome to the party Ronan.

Did he add anything new, or was that it?

You're wrong on all of it.

[Zorral]

47 minutes ago, Kalnak the Magnificent said:

He added quite a bit that was new - quite a bit of how much asskissing the US has to do to Musk to get him to do anything vaguely human, how worried Musk is about his stuff being used for military purposes, how much actual control Musk has about major parts of the US infrastructure and tech capacity that is...not ideal. 

Plus his ADD and his ever increasing self-medication and a very whole lot more. The article is very long. 

Evidently some horses are too occupied cracking corn in their long yellow teeth to notice Farrow is a professional investigative journalist, awarded Pulitzers for his work.  

[Werthead]

Russian milbloggers are complaining angrily about the Dnipro river front in Kherson Oblast. Apparently the Ukrainians killed, wounded and captured 200 Russian soldiers in one attack. The Russian command sent another 300 men forward to replace them, and the same thing happened (so 500 lost in two days). The Russians have no artillery support on that axis whilst the Ukrainians have total fire control over the area. A senior captain and two sergeants who complained were both dismissed from their posts. They consider the Ukrainians to be building up a dangerous initiative in that area. The Russian troops holding the river islands are being resupplied by drones because it is impossible to cross the river safely, but the drones are only big enough to carry light supplies.

Ukraine has achieved a minor victory on the NW outskirts of Bakhmut and begun operations possible to encircle the city on the northern side. This is much harder than on the south, so it'll be interesting to see how much headway they make.

Ukraine has established firm control over most of Robotyne and Urozhaine. They're clearing out the last pockets of Russian resistance in south Robotyne, whilst Ukrainian forces in Urozhaine have resumed offensive operations, apparently earlier than the Russians believed possible. A military command post in Tokmak was hit and destroyed yesterday, indicating that Ukraine means to push on in that direction.

[Which Tyler]

Thank you

[Wilbur]

The ammunition hunger in Ukraine is sufficient that they are cracking open cluster bomb 155 shells to harvest the bomblets inside for their drones.

Ukrainians Are Cutting Open U.S. Cluster Shells To Make Drone Munitions (thedrive.com)

Meanwhile, in Russia, the extirpation of Wagner continues apace.

 

[Werthead]

43 minutes ago, Wilbur said:

The ammunition hunger in Ukraine is sufficient that they are cracking open cluster bomb 155 shells to harvest the bomblets inside for their drones.

Ukrainians Are Cutting Open U.S. Cluster Shells To Make Drone Munitions (thedrive.com)

Meanwhile, in Russia, the extirpation of Wagner continues apace.

Smart idea. The number of cluster bomb shells available to send Ukraine is apparently in the millions (or at least a couple of million), so they can spare some for other purposes. That should increase as the HIMARS cluster ammunition becomes available (plus GLSDB should become operational as soon as next month).

[Wilbur]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Smart idea. The number of cluster bomb shells available to send Ukraine is apparently in the millions (or at least a couple of million), so they can spare some for other purposes. That should increase as the HIMARS cluster ammunition becomes available (plus GLSDB should become operational as soon as next month).

I agree on both counts.

Still, I wouldn't volunteer to run that angle grinder, though.

[Varysblackfyre321]

Putin is finally denazifying Ukraine.

[Maithanet]

2 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Putin is finally denazifying Ukraine.

They should make a thunder run to Moscow to show they are serious.  

[Corvinus85]

4 hours ago, Maithanet said:

They should make a thunder run to Moscow to show they are serious.  

Then take a plane back to their base.

[Werthead]

Ukrainian forces have advanced south-east of Robotyne already and have cleared part of the eastern flanks of Novoprokopivka. Good momentum, though they seem to be careful about not getting ahead of themselves.

Russia has redeployed the 76th Air Assault Division to the Robotyne front, apparently at short notice. Russia's previous doctrinal position was to hold the front with existing units and even rotate some units between reserve positions and the front, and not commit deep strategic reserves. Instead, they even withdrew reserves from the Robotyne-Tokmak axis to go on the offensive on the Kreminna front (against the advice of local commanders).

They rushing back the 76th is likely a sign they are concerned about a breakthrough of the main defensive line just behind Robotyne, running to Tokmak. If the line is turned, Tokmak becomes vulnerable and if Tokmak falls, Melitopol enters the conversation. The 76th is an experienced and relatively competent unit, and has not been in recent combat, so has had some time to rest and recuperate. However, the 76th is a VDV unit best used for storm assaults and offensives in conjunction with heavy artillery cover, not necessarily defensive operations with little artillery support. How effective they will be in this role is unclear.

Russian industry has reported a labour shortage of over half a million workers to the Kremlin, possibly due to so many able-bodied men being in Ukraine. Putin's response has been to lower the recruitment age for working in factories and heavy industry to 14.

Edited August 26, 2023 by Werthead

[Wilbur]

This is an excellent summary of what challenges the Ukrainian forces face as they move south.

Link to nitter.

This is in no way easy to overcome, but it is the reality of a military force without air superiority.

[Tongue Stuck to Wall]

11 hours ago, Wilbur said:

This is an excellent summary of what challenges the Ukrainian forces face as they move south.

Link to nitter.

This is in no way easy to overcome, but it is the reality of a military force without air superiority.

Even with air superiority, or even air supremacy, combat engineering operations are not an easy task.  You might be able to suppress or destroy some artillery and frontline defenses which are engaging sappers as they clear minefields and obstacles, but the defenders are dug in deep and the minefields are so dense the only way to breakthrough is grind it out meter by meter on the ground.

[Erik of Hazelfield]

Several Swedish parties are now saying they want to send Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine once the NATO membership is finalised. The argument goes that while Russia’s armies have been greatly reduced (not to mention occupied), its fleet and airforce are largely intact, so still pose a threat to Sweden, thus we need our Gripens until we get full NATO membership. I think we’ll come around to it sooner or later. The decision by other countries to send F16s has moved the pendulum a bit. 

It wouldn’t be entirely altruistic either - to maintain a capability of manufacturing fighter jets is a big deal for a small country like Sweden and Saab needs foreign buyers to share the development costs. As previously mentioned, many think the Gripen would be a good fit for Ukraine and hope for an order after the war has ended. 

[Ran]

While I agree the Gripen is very suited to Ukraine, my suspicion is that the hopes of creating a buyer for the Gripen will be for naught. The F-16 is too widespread in NATO, and the Eurofighter Typhoon after that. I know the Ukrainians have made noises about wanting Gripens, becaue they'll take everything they can get, but it's a stop gap, not a future long-term arrangement.

I'm not opposed to allowing some to be sent from some of the EU/NATO countries that currently operate them, if they are willing. Less sure about Sweden reducing its own stock right now, though. 

[Werthead]

Now the F-16s are on the table, I think Typhoons will follow in relative short order (F-35s are probably a bit of a pipe dream for now, and US production capability is iffy, plus they're not necessarily well-suited to the war in its current phase), maybe with conversations starting next year, as more European countries can send some in reasonable quantities in the nearish future, although they will be looking carefully at what they need for local defence.

[Werthead]

Russian Telegram sources reporting Ukrainian assaults are underway northwest and northeast of Robotyne, aimed towards Kopani and Verbove. These are obvious attacks designed to "flatten" the salient around Robotyne and prevent Russian counter-attacks.

Several OSINT sources pointing to satellite imagery suggesting gaps in the Russian defensive lines running east from Verbove, where work on the main trenchlines and defensive positions seems to have not yet begun or been left incomplete. Suggestions that Ukraine could score a (relatively) easy breach and turn of the line along the eastern and south-eastern appraoches to Robotyne. That helps Ukraine's overall offensive but is not a huge deal, just a nice bonus.

Some Russian claims that Russia is pouring troops into the new lines taking shape between Tokmak and Robotyne, but they are not convinced by the quality of the defensive works there. Ukrainian sources are indicating they believe from heat-imaging that the areas behind Robotyne are far less heavily mined than in front, which may make for easier going.

Whoever said a few weeks ago this is like the gruelling bocage/hedgerow-to-hedgerow fighting of Normandy 1944 was dead right. The question is if there is going to be a Falaise moment when a sudden breakthrough takes place.

The Russians deployed the 205th Brigade to the Dnipro islands to "stabilise" the situation but they promptly got swarmed by drones and artillery strikes. The 205th sent out angry Telegram messages, and the Kremlin's response was to film a fake propaganda report from the 205th saying everything was fine, which Telegram tore to pieces within minutes. The 205th continue to be hard-pressed, and the Russians continue to hesitate because they have no idea about what this is, a distraction or a serious military effort?

Four Su-30s and a MiG-29 were hit in a major drone swarm attack on Kursk airbase. Four of the five aircraft were apparently destroyed, the remaining one damaged, but that is unconfirmed. Two Pantsir AA systems were destroyed and an S-300 lost its radar unit.

Edited August 27, 2023 by Werthead

[Werthead]

Erm.

 

 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Given the Russians competent handling of their war, it's fair to assume no horse will be serve as commanding officer. Russia is simply not meritocracy. RUN from that unjust system.

[Toth]

6 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Given the Russians competent handling of their war, it's fair to assume no horse will be serve as commanding officer. Russia is simply not meritocracy. RUN from that unjust system.

At this point, I fear their fate will be to get eaten by starved mobiks instead...