Israel - Hamas War VI

[kissdbyfire]

10 minutes ago, Tears of Lys said:

Ya' think?   

 

Seriously, though, someone needs to grow some balls.  

Maybe what the world needs is for more people to grow some ovaries, not balls!

Edited October 28, 2023 by kissdbyfire

[Zorral]

It's the politician's conundrum with the perceived necessity of doing multiple messaging, addressing more than one segment -- and nation's -- of the voters, all of whom have different viewpoints.  For the US, with this issue, it is paralyzing for a liberal - progressive office holder - seeker.  It's equally true for places like NY as it is in the White House.

As the links I put up yesterday to Bret Deveraux's post about this, does a fairly decent job of explaining, along with what is and what is not a war crime / crime against humanity, particularly when that bugbear of all discussions, both sides, are guilty of both.

This is in stark contrast with the Ukraine war.  Unlike Ukraine, it hadn't committed atrocities against Russia, and the vastly more powerful and larger Russia invaded Ukraine, committing atrocities as it progressed, and continues to.  Thus we support Ukraine.  Whereas Israel and Hamas have been committing atrocities against each other.  Yet the vastly more powerful Israel continues to up atrocities upon the non-powerful, smaller innocent population of Gaza.  Thus we do not support Israel in this.

A lot of people on both disagree with my simple equation of what I support and don't support.  But as you all can see, I have actual reasons: historical, political, economic, etc.

 

Edited October 28, 2023 by Zorral

[Heartofice]

12 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Maybe what the world needs is for more people to grow some ovaries, not balls!

As someone from the UK, I can tell you that it doesn’t help. 

Edited October 28, 2023 by Heartofice

[Kalbear]

25 minutes ago, Tears of Lys said:

I'm curious as to why Biden has been just wringing his hands (figuratively) over the current situation. The USA could be doing a lot more to pressure Israel into a bit more moderation.  

Pretty much all the writing was on the wall when Biden compared this to 9-11. 

That said, here's a terrifying and probably true thought - it's likely that the US has actually moderated Israel's response.

[Werthead]

1 hour ago, Tears of Lys said:

I'm curious as to why Biden has been just wringing his hands (figuratively) over the current situation. The USA could be doing a lot more to pressure Israel into a bit more moderation.  

I think the US's position is that Hamas has overstepped a red line by about a thousand miles, so its destruction is now inevitable and they want Israel to do that, or at least respect Israel's right to do that.

However, the US is clearly extremely uneasy with the rapidity with which events are moving, the sheer volume of civilian casualties, the speed with which Israel is developing plans (possibly without thinking them through) and the sharp tempo of events, which dramatically raises the chances of regional escalation and could result in attacks on US military bases. If US soldiers start dying in significant numbers because Israel can't ratchet things down and try negotiations to get the hostages back, the US mood against Israel could shift quickly. It's never going to abandon Israel as an ally, but it could bring considerably greater political pressure to bear.

It's also clear that the US is well aware of the trap that is springing shut on it, that it's very hard for it to argue against Russian aggression in Ukraine and then support Israel five seconds later. Watching Israeli allies trying to avoid saying there's a humanitarian crisis in the same way Russian allies try to avoid saying "war" in favour of "space military operation" is genuinely embarrassing (and yes, the way other countries completely ignore the 1,500 Israeli dead that spurred this entire situation is at least equally embarrassing).

Edited October 28, 2023 by Werthead

[Zorral]

Yet -- last night Grand Central Station was shut down as a huge crowd, composed significantly of people of Jewish descent, demanded "Israel Cease-Fire".

As I explained above, Biden's got an impossible juggling challenge with addressing the contradictory multiple messages necessary just in this country alone, as well as Europe, the Middle East and elsewheres.  There is no way he can satisfy any of the groups.  Because this is the situation that was set-up from the git go in that decision made at the end of WWII by the US and the European powers.

[Zorral]

Also, we should consider, take into account, when/if accusing Biden of twiddling his thumbs with regard to Israel - Hamas -- if it wasn't for him, and his ability and determination, to see as many of the controlling powers in this situation f2f, Gaza would have been a flattened charnel house of smokened ruins and corpses even far beyond what it is now.  Which may not look like much, but considering what and who he's dealing with, is not to be sneered at either.  No one else could have gotten that much.

 

[Altherion]

2 hours ago, Tears of Lys said:

I'm curious as to why Biden has been just wringing his hands (figuratively) over the current situation. The USA could be doing a lot more to pressure Israel into a bit more moderation.  

First, the vast majority of Americans are currently strongly supportive of Israel. Harvard and Harris do a large (more than 2000 registered voters) national poll which, starting this October, asked about Israel and the current conflict (it starts at page 38 of the link). Somewhere between three quarters and four fifths of American voters believe Hamas are more appropriately called terrorists (page 41), that the Hamas attacks cannot be justified by Palestinian grievances and that these attacks were genocidal (page 43). On page 45, you can see that 58% of Americans approve of Biden's handling of this conflict (which is much higher than his approval in most other areas). Finally, there is this very specifically worded question on page 47:

"Does Israel have the right to defend itself against rocket and terror attacks on its cities by launching air strikes on terrorist targets in heavily populated Palestinian areas with warnings to those citizens or does it not have the right to launch to launch such attacks?"

And the answer to it is Yes by 84% of the respondents (which is a bit surprising because it's hard to get to 84% of American voters to agree on anything nowadays).

Second, if you look at the breakdowns by age for all of these questions, the 65+ cohort is always more strongly pro-Israel than the majority -- and Biden himself is of course part of this cohort. I suspect that Biden himself supports Israel and believes the pressure he is placing on them is adequate. Also, he has more information at his disposal than we do and he does not believe the numbers of casualties:

Quote

 

“I have no notion that the Palestinians are telling the truth about how many people are killed. I’m sure innocents have been killed, and it’s the price of waging a war,” Biden said.

“I think… the Israelis should be incredibly careful to be sure that they’re focusing on going after the folks that are propagating this war against Israel.  And it’s against their interest when that doesn’t happen,” he continued. “But I have no confidence in the number that the Palestinians are using.”

 

He does caution Israel in this comment too, but mainly it drew fury from a long list of Hamas sympathizers.

[Relic]

7,700+ dead in Gaza, 3200 of which are children, since Israel began bombing the densely populated region.

This according t the Palestinian Health Ministry, which some have said are padding their numbers, while others have said are not.

3000+ children. And Joe Biden says it's okay.

Edited October 28, 2023 by Relic

[Larry of the Lawn]

15 minutes ago, Relic said:

7,700+ dead in Gaza, 3200 of which are children, since Israel began bombing the densely populated region.

This according t the Palestinian Health Ministry, which some have said are padding their numbers, while others have said are not.

3000+ children. And Joe Biden says it's okay.

I'm curious if there's some broader point, beyond hard numbers, being made when people are skeptical of the casualties.  Like, for the sake of argument, let's assume that those are inflated and the real stats are half that.  Still fucking horrible.  

 

[Relic]

7 minutes ago, Larry of the Lawn said:

I'm curious if there's some broader point, beyond hard numbers, being made when people are skeptical of the casualties.  Like, for the sake of argument, let's assume that those are inflated and the real stats are half that.  Still fucking horrible.  

 

It's just a way to dehumanize the victims. It's awfully obvious.

[Werthead]

Hamas has made another offer to exchange all Israeli hostages - including military, apparently - in exchange for all Hamas prisoners currently in Israeli custody.

That's a significant increase from their last offer, which was all civilian hostages in return for all Palestinian prisoners (of all stripes).

[Craving Peaches]

16 minutes ago, Larry of the Lawn said:

I'm curious if there's some broader point, beyond hard numbers, being made when people are skeptical of the casualties.  Like, for the sake of argument, let's assume that those are inflated and the real stats are half that.  Still fucking horrible.  

 

7 minutes ago, Relic said:

It's just a way to dehumanize the victims. It's awfully obvious.

They released a list of the names and other details of thousands of the dead. So unless they are making up thousands of fake identities, I don't see how casualty figures are being inflated much.

Quote

Gaza’s health ministry on Thursday answered Biden with a list of the dead. The 212-page document provided the name, age, sex, and official identification number of 6,747 people that Palestinian officials say have been killed in Gaza since Israel began its airstrikes there on Oct. 7. (The document notes that this list does not include the 281 dead who have yet to be identified.) TIME has not been able to independently verify the list.

What Experts Say About the Palestinian Death Toll Figures | TIME

[Kalbear]

24 minutes ago, Larry of the Lawn said:

I'm curious if there's some broader point, beyond hard numbers, being made when people are skeptical of the casualties.  Like, for the sake of argument, let's assume that those are inflated and the real stats are half that.  Still fucking horrible.  

 

I guess one reason is that in some actual cases the numbers appear to be inflated not by half, but by 5 times or more. So yeah, it's horrible but it's a pretty big difference. 

I guess I'd put it on the other foot - why might they inflate the numbers? What purpose does that serve? 

[kissdbyfire]

Will Israel accept the offer to get all of the hostages in exchange for the Palestinian prisoners? I hope so, for the sake of the hostages and their families, but if I’m honest I don’t feel particularly hopeful. 
 

Good video on a possible ground invasion etc.

 

[GrimTuesday]

Turns out it may not have been The Gaza Health Ministry that lied about the hospital bombing death toll, it seems to be a mistranslation by the media

 

[fionwe1987]

https://www.wired.com/story/gaza-internet-blackout-israel/

 

I hope, at the least, that what is happening leads to the "rules of war" such as they are, being modified to make this illegal. Communication is core infrastructure, and indiscriminate destruction of it hurts civilians more than anyone. It cannot be allowed. 

[Mudguard]

50 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

I guess one reason is that in some actual cases the numbers appear to be inflated not by half, but by 5 times or more. So yeah, it's horrible but it's a pretty big difference. 

I guess I'd put it on the other foot - why might they inflate the numbers? What purpose does that serve? 

If you are referring to the death toll at the hospital attack as being inflated by 5 times, I don't think that is the case.  The early estimates from some so called experts that the death toll was likely only in the dozens is absolute garbage, as are some of the government estimates putting the number between 100-300.  On what basis were these estimates made?  In each case, the estimates were based on massive assumptions, many of which were wrong.  None of the estimates were based on first hand knowledge to the best of my understanding.

The latest assessments from the US government regarding this incident has changed quite a bit.  They are no longer asserting any number to the deaths, and simply say we don't know.  The early narrative was that it was a fuel based explosion, but the US government now believes the explosion was caused by the rocket warhead.  Israeli government initially claimed that there was no crater, but clearly there was a small crater.  Tons a misinformation and bad guesses around what likely happened.

I think it's fine to be skeptical and take a wait and see approach right after an incident happens, but quite a bit of time has passed now, and as far as I'm aware, there has been no convincing proof that the death number being officially reported out now, which is around 470 the last that I saw, is substantially inaccurate.  There was tons of interest in this, and I would think by now that if the number were inflated by 5 times, some reporter would have been able to find some concrete evidence.

Yes, the number is a bit below the early estimates of 500+ dead, but those were just estimates.  People were literally blown to pieces, and with so much carnage, I'm sure it was difficult to accurately determine the number.

We see this all the time even is US media.  For example, in the Maine massacre, early reports claimed that the death toll was in the twenties, but now stories report the death toll at 18.  There was no malicious intent with trying to inflate the numbers here.  It's just when these stories break there is so much chaos that errors are inadvertently made.

Regarding the overall death toll, I have no reason to believe that the numbers are wildly inflated.  At this point, I don't think they have to exaggerate the death toll given the amount of destruction that is going on.  For all we know, the count could be too low due to the number of people still buried in the rubble.  Israel has leveled a a large portion of Gaza.  Hundreds or maybe over a thousand structures have been demolished.  In addition to bombs, they are using artillery, and I don't think their artillery can be considered a precision weapon.  In satellite images, you can see entire neighborhoods completely flattened.

[ljkeane]

2 hours ago, Altherion said:

Also, he has more information at his disposal than we do and he does not believe the numbers of casualties:

And the Gaza Health Ministry responded with a list of names and ID numbers for all the casualties they had, which is very verifiable information. So, yeah, he was almost certainly in the wrong there and US officials have notably pretty much avoided answering the question when asked about that since then.

[Varysblackfyre321]