SeanF Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 On 1/8/2024 at 8:15 PM, Kalbear said: And again, I ask - why would more equipment matter? How does it matter? Ammunition is really crucial but that's not being held up solely by Western politics - it's a logistical issue. Beyond that, what would make the actual difference? Why would APCs matter when you're dealing with minefields and artillery? Why do tanks matter when you're not even using the ones you have? The main way I see more equipment mattering is that it would allow Ukraine to be more daring and take bigger risks, but that still has one big problem - they are running out of people. Unless you're advocating sending them a bunch of Boston Dynamics robots you're not gonna solve that problem. I hadn't heard that angle. Thanks! I'm still pretty skeptical of it however. It's certainly possible that's true, but my understanding was that ECM and ECCM from Russia was significantly more advanced than what we (and Ukraine) had expected, and is very hard to defeat. That, plus the man-portable munitions has made it far more difficult. It also means that bringing in the non-stealth craft have problems from that same set of man-portable weaponry - it isn't just the large systems that need to be blown up, and there are a lot of hand-held launchers. This has been the problem for Russian aircraft too, mind you, so it's not like it's an advantage on one side only. My suspicion is that NATO would have to rely more heavily on things like cruise missiles than aircraft - which they could do! - but that means it's not an answer for what could be given to Ukraine. I don't think Russia is going to get momentum any time soon - unless Ukraine is not given ammunition which is a possibility. But I don't think that there's anything that you can give Ukraine to win anything, either. Again, without a way to deal with the minefields and defensive lines you're not going to get anywhere. You can make tactical strikes behind the lines and hurt Russia some, but it won't cause a breakthrough. And without the ability to end all the artillery defense of those minefields you won't be able to remove the mines quickly or easily, meaning that you either won't be able to break through without reinforcements being ready for those lines or you will be under constant fire when clearing the minefields. The real tragedy, IMO, is that if we had given Ukraine the equipment we have given them this year last year Ukraine probably could have won the war or gone very far with it. HIMARS and modern armor and APCs last year could have caused major breakthroughs in the disorganized, sparsely defended lines, and well before Russia could have done a damn thing. Now though? Not so much. My point was that there isn't much more the West is going to be able to do to Russia that isn't already being done, not without causing a global depression. Russia has shown itself to be resilient enough and appears to be on the upswing from last year. That won't be sustainable forever as you say, but it's certainly sustainable for another couple of years. And in that time it's not clear if Ukraine will have any fighting capability left, regardless of Western supplied equipment. Russia’s manpower problems are acute. No modern army recruits prisoners, serving time for murder and rape, unless it has no alternative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Horse Named Stranger Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 hours ago, SeanF said: Russia’s manpower problems are acute. No modern army recruits prisoners, serving time for murder and rape, unless it has no alternative. Not acute enough for Putin to call general mobilization. Right now he manages to keep enough Russians happy/disengaged by not bothering them with the prospect of sending them/their sons/husbands to the front. Padraig 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Padraig Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 15 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said: IMO, if Russia can drag things along and keep throwing its people into the meat grinder the necessary military aid will be lots of combat boots, pre-filled with non-Ukrainian feet, and the live bodies that go with them We are a long way from that. 19 hours ago, Werthead said: Ukraine regained more territory than Russia took in 2023 (although that wasn't much to start with). But wasn't a high proportion of that in the middle part of the year? The end of the year has been much less positive. Last winter was poor also for Ukraine but at that stage, there was a lot of talk about Ukraine preparing for its 2023 offensive. Things are much more muted now about future plans. Generally, while i'm not sure about the smaller points, what Kalbear says seems more in line with what I have read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Makk Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 minutes ago, Padraig said: But wasn't a high proportion of that in the middle part of the year? The end of the year has been much less positive. Last winter was poor also for Ukraine but at that stage, there was a lot of talk about Ukraine preparing for its 2023 offensive. Things are much more muted now about future plans. Generally, while i'm not sure about the smaller points, what Kalbear says seems more in line with what I have read. The front lines didn't move a lot for either side and the places where they did have no strategic value (other than across the Dnipro which is still pretty limited). Its most likely going to come down to attrition and then a economic or political collapse from either side. I can't see peace or a treaty before that because Ukraine has very high resolve and it is the entire countries freedom at stake while for Putin he will probably be killed off if Russia is seen to lose. In general I am a lot more optimistic than most people here. I think the west will continue/start again supplying enough equipment and money to keep Ukraine's military and economy functioning and I think Ukraine inevitably wins although it could well take another 2-3 years. The west has learned and will not try to apply political pressure for Ukraine to do something they shouldn't or are not capable of again. Russia does not have unlimited resources, they do not have a well trained or motivated force, they will continue to face increasing social and economic pressure back home. A lot of Putin's recent bluster is a projection. Tongue Stuck to Wall and Arakasi 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toth Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Regarding the front lines question, some time ago I found this map on twitter: https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2F2qmfb00ypl9c1.jpeg Blue is territory gained by Russia last year, yellow is territory gained by Ukraine. Kalbear 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Anti-Targ Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 hours ago, Padraig said: We are a long way from that. Timeframe is a secondary matter. The question is are the NATO war planners recognising NATO member combat soldiers in Ukraine is a non-negligible probability and have they informed their govts that with each passing quarter the probability goes up as being a necessary condition for a Ukraine victory? The timeframe will be significantly shortened if Russia starts making (and holding) important net territorial gains. Ukraine may be able to stalemate Russia if hardware and munitions supplies keep flowing in at necessary rates, but pushing Russia back is going to be hard without a lot more soldiers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Padraig Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 19 hours ago, Toth said: Regarding the front lines question, some time ago I found this map on twitter: https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2F2qmfb00ypl9c1.jpeg Blue is territory gained by Russia last year, yellow is territory gained by Ukraine. Thanks. That map says a lot. 19 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said: Timeframe is a secondary matter. Mea culpa. I should have said that is never going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Meanwhile in a change to strategy Ukraine is rolling out their own lines of fortifications and defenses: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-builds-barricades-digs-trenches-focus-shifts-defence-2024-01-11/ Padraig 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Anti-Targ Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 hours ago, Padraig said: Thanks. That map says a lot. Mea culpa. I should have said that is never going to happen. So Korea-like stalemate or Russia win it is then? Jace, Extat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jace, Extat Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 7 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said: So Korea-like stalemate or Russia win it is then? At least until a new doctrine is developed. As-is combined arms is no longer viable. Tanks are deathtraps, too easily vulnerable to handheld anti-tank weapons. And even the most (almost) modern planes are no match for modern anti-air. Add to the fact that the whole battlefield is visible from drones... This one is tough. I worry about Trump taking office and leaning on Zelensky to make peace under hard terms a year from now. The Ukrainians are not going to be able to mount any kind of summer offensive that achieves a breakthrough in 2024. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Anti-Targ Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I don't trust Trump to do anything other than try to hand the whole of Ukraine over to Putin. The only way that doesn't happen under Pres Trump is if his inner circle can pull him back. The one clip from the last Haley - De Santis debate I saw was how De Santis accused Haley of wanting to have an open chequebook for Ukraine (I don't remember his exact words but that seemed to be the gist of it), and De Santis just a beta Trump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Padraig Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Ultimately, Trump can't give the whole of Ukraine over to Putin. It would put a lot more pressure on the rest of Europe though and the EU can't say Trump's betrayal of Ukraine would be a surprise. It would have to take up some of the slack. Trump can practically ensure that Ukraine can't win the war though (since Europe isn't set up to fully replace the type of aid the US can give). And Russia would probably take more land. But Ukraine has shown enough resolve to stop worse case scenarios from arising (since I do believe Europe wouldn't abandon Ukraine). Jace, Extat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toth Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Okay, this is some of the most insane footage I have seen so far: Ser Scot A Ellison, horangi and Kalbear 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derfel Cadarn Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Apparently some workers at a Wildberries (Russian Amazon ripoff) were conscripted from the workplace (a massive warehouse in St Petersburg), and in response their colleagues have torched it https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2024-01-13/russian-firefighters-battle-to-put-out-huge-fire-at-online-retailers-warehouse Ser Scot A Ellison and wiedzma 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 hours ago, Toth said: Okay, this is some of the most insane footage I have seen so far: It's notable how some relatively unimportant-seeming equipment has really played into Ukrainian hands. An APC is far, far cheaper than a main battle tank, so if the APC can literally destroy the heaviest tank in the enemy arsenal, the cost effectiveness of that works really well. Of course, this is only effective at relatively close range. If you want to engage the enemy from 2 miles away, it's not so helpful, but at medium and close range this works impressively. wiedzma 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hmmm Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 (edited) 17 minutes ago, Werthead said: It's notable how some relatively unimportant-seeming equipment has really played into Ukrainian hands. An APC is far, far cheaper than a main battle tank, so if the APC can literally destroy the heaviest tank in the enemy arsenal, the cost effectiveness of that works really well. Of course, this is only effective at relatively close range. If you want to engage the enemy from 2 miles away, it's not so helpful, but at medium and close range this works impressively. At that range the Bradley has TOW-missiles though. This war has definitely shown how inferior most Russian military equipment is to even partially outdated Western stuff. I think a lot of buyers in the rest of the world are really regretting their choices of suppliers now. One can only imagine what is going to happen once Ukraine gets their F-16:s and we start seeing showdowns between them and the Russian air force. Edited January 13 by Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Apparently during the last big international arms fair in Dubai, Russia was unable to sign a single big contract and their display stand was moved to the back of the hall, away from the big displays by western and Chinese manufacturers. There's been what appears to be a riot in St. Petersburg. Wildberries, Russia's equivalent of Amazon, employs a very large number of people. Russian police have raided their main warehouse in St. Petersburg several times to forcibly conscript dozens, if not hundreds, of workers for deployment to Ukraine. Remaining workers, disgruntled, burned the place down. The fire alarm had been disabled by management due to previous false alarms. Apparently the fire was left untended for hours whilst management and St. Petersburg's fire service got into an argument about whether they should use helicopters to try to put the fire out (which are very expensive). Whilst this was going on the entire complex appears to have burned to the ground. Remarkably, only two injuries and no deaths. A new(ish) organisation called "Way Back Home" has formed Russia. Wives of soldiers deployed on the front have called for the Kremlin to publish an exit strategy from the war to give assurances of when the war will end and what is being done to protect their husbands and sons in the field. The organisation has held several small protests and gatherings outside the Kremlin, but these have been growing in size. This week, one of the organisers was arrested. Allegedly, some Russian soldiers on the front have said they will withdraw and march on Moscow if their wives start being arrested at home. This is very familiar from the Afghan conflict. Ser Scot A Ellison, Arakasi, wiedzma and 2 others 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luzifer's right hand Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 56 minutes ago, Werthead said: Apparently during the last big international arms fair in Dubai, Russia was unable to sign a single big contract and their display stand was moved to the back of the hall, away from the big displays by western and Chinese manufacturers. So Chinese arms manufacturers might not want attack on Taiwan I guess. wiedzma 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 3 minutes ago, Luzifer's right hand said: So Chinese arms manufacturers might not want attack on Taiwan I guess. I, for one, sincerely hope this serves as a deterrent to PRC ambitions in that direction. wiedzma 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord of Oop North Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: I, for one, sincerely hope this serves as a deterrent to PRC ambitions in that direction. China is not stupid. They should be worried, because if the US decided to support Taiwan, a US retaliatory strike could destroy the entire Chinese navy. The key to any victory is either convincing Taiwan they don't want to be separate, or ensuring America doesn't support them. wiedzma, Ser Scot A Ellison, Prince of the North and 1 other 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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