Ukraine War: David And Goliath

[Padraig]

2 hours ago, Bironic said:

I think almost 2 years after the russian invasion of Ukraine, we can say one thing: the current US President and with it a large part of "the West" doesn't view Ukraine as something that is really worth fighting for.

That doesn't seem true.  Biden clearly wants to support Ukraine.  But he can't without Republican support.  It is about politics, not really Ukraine itself.

Europe has much more at stake.  But from the very start, some states have dragged their feet on how to react.  That continues.  Its interesting to see why some countries have done what they have.  Hungary is the only state particularly opposed to Ukraine though (and that existed since the start also).

Here is views from the public at large.

https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/news/europeans-continue-strongly-support-ukraine-eurobarometer-shows-2023-12-13_en

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Support for a range of actions taken in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine remains very high. Almost nine in ten (89%) agree with providing humanitarian support to the people affected by the war, and more than eight in ten (84%) agree with welcoming into the EU people fleeing the war. 72% agree with providing financial support to Ukraine. The same proportion (72%) support economic sanctions on the Russian government, companies, and individuals. Around six in ten approve of the EU granting candidate status to Ukraine (61%) and of the EU financing the purchase and supply of military equipment to Ukraine (60%).

I would be more anxious about the war right now.  Putin and the Russian media have started to talk with a lot more confidence (although, some of that is propaganda).

[A Horse Named Stranger]

On 12/16/2023 at 4:47 PM, Kalbear said:

It's also remarkable how bad things are going for Ukraine so quickly. I've seen reports of artillery units not being able to fire on targets because they cannot expend the ammo on those and save ammo for defense. I've seen another article that Ukraine is lacking troops so badly that they are confiscating passports and going after mentally disabled people.

Remarkable, but at the same time not really that surprising. It's been noted before, how quickly Ukrainians (and their Russian counter parts) eat through their supplies of artillery shells. If they don't get constant supply of shells, they can't continue to fire them.

[Makk]

Yekaterina Duntsova, is a very brave Russian woman who has registered to run in the Russian election campaigning to stop the war, free political prisoners, and stop corruption in the Russian political system. She has got the 500 signatures needed and registered, now she needs 300,000 signatures from 40 different regions. 

She will probably end up dead or in prison, which she is well aware of, but if she gains enough popularity it could cause putin problems.

[Martell Spy]

Rush of new defense deals with US shows Europe’s growing concern over Russia
Six European countries have inked defense pacts with the U.S. this month.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/21/defense-europe-russia-nato-00132945

Quote

 

A surge of new defense agreements between the U.S. and allies in Northern Europe allow for the fast-track deployment of American troops, marking the latest response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

New multi-year pacts with Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania signed this month signal a major shift that has occurred within NATO over the past two years as member countries race to restock arsenals after sending weapons to Ukraine and steel themselves for a new era of confrontation with Moscow.

At the heart of all six defense security cooperation deals are guidelines for allowing U.S. troops to operate in the country for training missions and easing red tape for personnel and their equipment to deploy quickly in case of emergency.

“This allows the U.S. to say: This entire region is one defense region. How can we work together, both in planning, exercises, deterrence operations? Now you can do it all in a rational way, rather than having to say — we can’t refuel in Sweden,” said Charly Salonius-Pasternak, a leading researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.

 

 

[Makk]

Ukraine shot down 3 Su-34 bombers in a single Russian offensive against the bridgehead on the east bank of the dnipro. A while ago in this thread I was wondering if there was anything Ukraine could do about aviation attacks in this area, apparently they moved a patriot system in range and it paid off. Should be a massive deterrent from now on. 

[Werthead]

The arrival of F-16s, reportedly equipped with AMRAAMs, might make flying over Ukrainian territory or within ~150 miles of the border a considerably more hazardous task.

[Werthead]

Interesting.

Putin has signalled through back channels that he is ready to negotiate, seriously this time. This seems to be linked to his imminent presidential run, with ending the war something that will bolster his popularity.

The basis for ending the war would essentially be the front as it stands right now. Russia would formally reorder the borders of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts to match the currently-held territory (Russia claims both oblasts but holds only about half the former and a bit more than half of latter). This would also involve Russia giving up territory in both Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts; it holds almost all of the former and more than half of the latter.

Putin is apparently emphasising flagging international support for Ukraine and if the war continues in the long term, Russia could continue to absorb more Ukrainian territory, until Ukraine either falls altogether or settles for borders significantly smaller than they are now. Negotiating now would ensure the survival of a larger Ukrainian state making up the bulk of its pre-February 2022 territory and population, and prevent the further loss of Ukrainian territory and populations to Russia (or so he would argue).

Ukrainian officials, obviously, are less than impressed with the idea. Although privately some are willing to discuss some deal that involves giving up some territory (including some or most of the currently-held Donbas territories, and maybe negotiations on Crimea, which Ukrainian artillery and aviation currently exercises partial fire control over), recognising Russia's control of around 50% of the territory it has gained since the February invasion is seen as too big a compromise. One idea floated in some international circles is Russia fully withdrawing from Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in return for partial of full recognition of Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk (including territory currently held by Ukraine), but that would mean giving up its land-bridge linking mainland Russia to Crimea, which it regards as strategically vital, not to mention having to re-negotiate Russia's constitution in the Duma, which would really be quite a public setback. Putin's current philosophy seems to be "not one metre back."

Russia seems to be emphasising Putin's previous readiness to make a deal in late 2022, after Ukraine retook all of Kharkiv Oblast and pushed Russian forces behind the River Dnipro. Russia has failed to make massive gains since then (its gains almost wholly being limited to the town of Bakhmut) but Ukraine also failed to make spectacular territorial gains in its late 2023 counter-offensive (although it has marginally take more territory in 2023 than Russia gained), raising fears of a long-term stalemate which would eventually play into Russia's hands. Effectively there has not been a major shift in the lines since then, but a vast number of deaths on both sides (more Russian than Ukrainian, but not the vastly greater ratios in Ukraine's favour seen in early 2022).

According to the article, apparently Putin would even be willing for a newly-reorganised Ukraine to enter the EU and NATO, although possibly only because he knows the process for Ukraine to enter NATO would take many years, and Russia could choose to resume the attack before then. It might also be that Putin, now 71, acknowledges it might be Russia's next leader who has to worry about that and his legacy will be ensured by a victory right now.

The offer will likely split Ukraine's international partners, who are worried about Russia taking all of Ukraine and rolling up to NATO's borders and possibly absorbing Moldova as well. This deal would keep Russian hundreds of miles further east. It would also allow Ukraine time to rest and heavily re-arm, and for defences to be built against any future offensive. Ukraine would be able to sell its survival and battlefield successes as something of a victory in the face of impossible odds, but it would be a bitter pill to swallow. Ukraine also seems to be approaching its initial set of manpower limitations, with recent calls to Ukrainian men studying and working abroad to return home to serve in the military. Although Ukraine has said it has stockpiled ammunition and resources for a further offensive in 2024 (possibly to accompany the deployment of F-16s), there is some doubt over whether this will be viable.

It's highly improbable Ukraine will countenance such a deal at this time, but the risk is that if Russia achieves greater battlefield successes, Putin might choose to hold fire on a deal until it has achieved even greater successes later on. For Ukraine, they may see the matter as existential, with Russia retaining control over Crimea and with military forces right on the Dnipro, but the confidence within Ukraine about achieving total liberation seems shakier than it was a year ago.

Edited December 23, 2023 by Werthead

[Maithanet]

Ukraine has knocked down 5 Russian jets in the past week.  That's a lot.  This could be caused by two ways.  1. They are using new tactics to deploy thier Patriot batteries more aggressively.  Or 2. They have already received some of the f-16s from the Dutch, and we are seeing them in action.

Those f-16s aren't going to change the war (a la himars) but they could still have a pretty big impact.  If Russia needs to operate thier aircraft further back, that would save a lot of Ukrainian lives.

[SpaceChampion]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/zelenskyy-ukraine-christmas-day-1.6922298

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Friday signed a law moving the official Christmas Day holiday to Dec. 25 from Jan. 7, the day it's observed by the Russian Orthodox Church.

The explanatory note attached to the law said its goal is to "abandon the Russian heritage," including that of "imposing the celebration of Christmas" on Jan. 7, and cited Ukrainians' "relentless, successful struggle for their identity" and "the desire of all Ukrainians to live their lives with their own traditions, holidays," fuelled by Russia's 17-month-old aggression against the country.

Last year, some Ukrainians already observed Christmas on Dec. 25, in a gesture that represented separation from Russia, its culture and religious traditions.

The law also moves the Day of Ukrainian Statehood to July 15 from July 28, and the Day of Defenders of Ukraine to Oct. 1 from Oct. 14.

The Russian Orthodox Church, which claims sovereignty over Orthodoxy in Ukraine, and some other Eastern Orthodox churches continue to use the ancient Julian calendar. Christmas falls 13 days later on that calendar, or Jan. 7, than it does on the Gregorian calendar used by most church and secular groups.

 

[DireWolfSpirit]

Wrt Bidens resolve on Ukraine support-

Biden and the Democrats are on board with continued weapons support to defend Ukraine. 

It is Bidens rival party, the GOP (Republicans) that are the foot-draggers.

If Trump is not defeated in November things will be even less reliable, the Republicans do not even support Americans, so we can expect nothing from them if thier dirty money propels them into office.

They are allies to no-one but whatever paymaster owns them.

[Relic]

3 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

They are allies to no-one but whatever paymaster owns them.

Not trying to defend the GOP but I wouldn't paint the Dems as being some sort of paragon of virtue. Who are the "paymasters" in your above statement? 

Here's an interesting breakdown of who Lockheed Martin supports financially. -

https://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/lockheed-martin/summary?id=D000000104

Edited December 26, 2023 by Relic

[Loge]

Ukraine has hit the Russian landing ship Novocherkassk in Feodosiya, Crimea. The extent of the damage isn't clear yet, but there was a big explosion.

[DireWolfSpirit]

8 hours ago, Relic said:

Who are the "paymasters" in your above statement? 

I believe in some cases they take money from Putin or another Oligarch. Im not certain theres a paper trail for all of it but their actions collectively hint quite strongly that, that is the reasoning behind some of the more head scratching GOP foreign policy stances.

Dont be decieved they (GOP) are not for America once their behind closed doors.

Edited December 26, 2023 by DireWolfSpirit

[Derfel Cadarn]

Russia appears to have captured Mariinka.

Not that there’s much left of it

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67820916

[Relic]

1 hour ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

Dont be decieved they (GOP) are not for America once their behind closed doors.

I mean, fuck the GOP. Point was, everyone in DC is on the payroll. I don't trust the motives of anyone there, especially when it comes to spending tax dollars on weapons. 

[The Anti-Targ]

1 hour ago, Relic said:

I mean, fuck the GOP. Point was, everyone in DC is on the payroll. I don't trust the motives of anyone there, especially when it comes to spending tax dollars on weapons. 

They don't spend tax dollars, but aside from that fair points.

[Relic]

3 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

They don't spend tax dollars

What do you mean? 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

On 12/20/2023 at 6:00 AM, Makk said:

Yekaterina Duntsova, is a very brave Russian woman who has registered to run in the Russian election campaigning to stop the war, free political prisoners, and stop corruption in the Russian political system. She has got the 500 signatures needed and registered, now she needs 300,000 signatures from 40 different regions. 

She will probably end up dead or in prison, which she is well aware of, but if she gains enough popularity it could cause putin problems.

Update on this.

Russia's electoral commission has denied her application to be on the ballot citing over 100 typographically errors in her paperwork. Make of that you will.

[Erik of Hazelfield]

What a tragedy it would be if any other deal than a full withdrawal of Russian forces from all of Ukraine came to pass. It would send the signal to all dictators out there that the old way is back, where might makes right and where you can invade your neighbouring countries for territory. It would send the signal that the West does care, just not enough to help the democratic side win. It would send a message to China that it’s quite fine to invade Taiwan as long as you make a good job of it. Moreover, it wouldn’t lead to a lasting peace because Russia has violated just about every treaty it has signed. They would only use the ceasefire to build up their military and then attack again later. 

There’s nothing more important right now than to give Ukraine what they need to kick out the Russians from their country, and the fact that there are politicians who seek to prevent this aid from flowing or use it for their own agenda is making me so angry I don’t know what to do. 

There’s been some indications the rest of the EU are going to find a workaround  to Viktor Orban’s veto of the aid to Ukraine. It’d be loans rather than direct aid but it’s always something.

https://kyivindependent.com/eu-proposes-debt-based-solution-to-fund-ukraine/

[Zorral]

Josh Marshal predicts.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/readers-respond-3-2

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.... On Ukraine, for all the summer’s disappointments, I still see grounds for Western optimism. I root for Ukrainian victory, but, to put it bluntly, it is not necessary to the international order that Ukraine win—only that Russia lose. And lose it shall. The fact that no Russian or Ukrainian collaborator anywhere in Ukrainian territory is safe there has been driven home time and again through missile strikes, drone attacks, car bombs, you name it. No occupation can survive under such conditions, with the risks of connection to the imperial war machine no lower than the risks of resistance to it. It’s simply untenable. Consider that it is only now, nearly two years into the war, that Ukrainian officials have begun seriously discussing a military draft. They’ve been mounting their resistance with volunteers so far, while Russia throws endless conscripts into the meat grinder with nothing of value to show for it, and indeed has already had to deal with one abortive coup attempt. Nothing is guaranteed in life, but boy it sure doesn’t look good for Putin’s imperial aspirations right now. To use the Cold War term, Russia’s sphere of influence has constricted thanks to this conflict, rather than expanding as he’d hoped. That will be as true next year as it was this year, even if Putin gets the favorable peace terms some have been talking about (I doubt he will). ....