US Politics: Primary Schoolin'

[kissdbyfire]

So, this has absolutely nothing to do w/ the current discussion but it popped up n my google news alerts and… what the actual fuck?
 

“On January 25, the state of Alabama will attempt to execute Kenneth Smith using nitrogen hypoxia, forcing him to inhale pure nitrogen through a mask until he suffocates. This will be the first time in United States history that nitrogen gas has ever been used to execute a person.”

https://www.aclu.org/news/capital-punishment/alabama-plans-to-execute-a-man-with-nitrogen-gas-despite-jurys-life-verdict#:~:text=On January 25%2C the state,used to execute a person.

[Maithanet]

2 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

So, this has absolutely nothing to do w/ the current discussion but it popped up n my google news alerts and… what the actual fuck?

Lots of companies don't want their products used in executions and have taken steps to make sure they aren't involved.  States adamant about continuing capital punishment (such as Alabama) are turning to alternative methods. 

[TrackerNeil]

2 hours ago, Jace, Extat said:

Scott, you didn't say a damn thing wrong. Stop backpedaling, man.

Right? Can we assume that a long-time member of the board is acting in good faith, unless proven otherwise?

Great Maker.

Edited January 23 by TrackerNeil

[kissdbyfire]

49 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Lots of companies don't want their products used in executions and have taken steps to make sure they aren't involved.  States adamant about continuing capital punishment (such as Alabama) are turning to alternative methods. 

It makes sense that companies don’t want their brands associated w/ this. As to these alternative methods… I don’t even know what to say. Maybe gallows and  a noose would be more humane, but I’m gonna take a wild guess and say the powers that be in Alabama don’t give two fucks about being humane. Isn’t Alabama w/ the very strict abortion ban because LIFE!!! and also one of the very first to pass a law(s?) allowing children to work night shifts in slaughterhouses and other horrors? Maybe I’m mixing my red state hell here, but JFC.

ETA: maybe I was thinking of Arkansas, not Alabama. 

Edited January 23 by kissdbyfire

[Zorral]

43 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

So, this has absolutely nothing to do w/ the current discussion but it popped up n my google news alerts and… what the actual fuck?

This huge news was covered extensively -- reported -- all weekend on public radio and nationally and locally, meaning where I live -- don't know about other places.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

That these days functionally brain dead jerkwaddies are not governing and think They should be and are executing government >!<, must be the explanation for Steve Garvey believing he should be a Senator.  He who has not held any kind of office, ever campaigned for election either.  Which probably explains why I never heard of him until today, seeing a story today of him getting smoked by Dems in a debate in California.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/22/california-senate-debate-highlights-00137093

[kissdbyfire]

2 minutes ago, Zorral said:

This huge news was covered extensively -- reported -- all weekend on public radio and nationally and locally, meaning where I live -- don't know about other places.

I had not seen anything about it. I feel sick to my stomach. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Kalbear said:

Eh.

In general policy wonks - particularly on the conservative side - have controlled things quite well and have continually gotten more of what they want. Those wonks now effectively dictate the exact list of candidates for judicial nominations verbatim. They regularly draft legislation for states and even for federal government that can circumvent or abolish precedents that they care about. There's a lot of noise about the MTGs and Trumps as far as them doing heinous things and corrupt bullshit, and that's bad in and of itself - but the wonkiness has been working well for 30+ years for conservatives, and more importantly the social media influencers that you're talking about largely get their marching orders from them. 

I guess in a sense, but The Federalist Society and ALEC aren't running everything, and when they're able to get their shit done it's because of next level idiots being in office in the first place. 

[Kalbear]

19 minutes ago, Mr. Chatywin et al. said:

I guess in a sense, but The Federalist Society and ALEC aren't running everything, and when they're able to get their shit done it's because of next level idiots being in office in the first place. 

They're pretty close to running everything they want to run. Their policy is what is in place at the judicial level, it's what was largely adopted at the executive levels, and what legislation they've wanted (mostly the tax cuts) they've gotten. If they're not running things I'd say it's more that they don't want to. 

My point is that every Republican is a 'next level idiot' for them, at virtually every level of government. And even beyond that - they work very closely with Sinclair media, Fox news, other media personalities, etc. The only major thing they've not had success at is at the federal legislative level, but they've basically circumvented that by having their policy done via judicial fiat.

Put it another way - the next time a Republican stands against what they want will be the first time in like 40 years.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

2 hours ago, Kalbear said:

They're pretty close to running everything they want to run. Their policy is what is in place at the judicial level, it's what was largely adopted at the executive levels, and what legislation they've wanted (mostly the tax cuts) they've gotten. If they're not running things I'd say it's more that they don't want to. 

Bingo. They certainly have gotten some things they want, but I wouldn't overstate things.

Quote

My point is that every Republican is a 'next level idiot' for them, at virtually every level of government. And even beyond that - they work very closely with Sinclair media, Fox news, other media personalities, etc. The only major thing they've not had success at is at the federal legislative level, but they've basically circumvented that by having their policy done via judicial fiat.

Thankfully Sinclair media went out of business. Kinda.

 

Anyways, Haley might (strong hedge) actually pull this off. She's hitting the early numbers she needs. 

ETA: May have spoke too soon. Haley seems to be getting blown out in non urban areas. 

Edited January 24 by Mr. Chatywin et al.

[Kalbear]

I'm amused that Biden won the NH primary despite not being on the ballot due to a conflict with the state. All write-ins. 

And yeah, Trump won New Hampshire. Quelle surprise. 

Edited January 24 by Kalbear

[TheKitttenGuard]

1 hour ago, Kalbear said:

I'm amused that Biden won the NH primary despite not being on the ballot due to a conflict with the state. All write-ins. 

And yeah, Trump won New Hampshire. Quelle surprise. 

At risk of being overly optimistic, I think Biden write-in is a very positive sign. Write in is a more committed process so a very large number went through should be encouraging in that Biden/Democratic voters will be dedicated though not enthusiastic.

Edited January 24 by TheKitttenGuard

[Jace, Extat]

I have some uncanny and accursed timing. Brought up the AP livestream thirty seconds before the orange bastard stepped up to speak.

Edited January 24 by Jace, Extat

[Zorral]

Did she do better than expected?  Chris Christie said he would smoke her.  Of course this was New Hampshire where even (some of) the voters are really more independent than independent means, and (some) Dems crossed over also with the same idea of messing with the momentum. While he does seem to be publicly showing ever more 'senior moments' in every appearance.

Myself have no idea that this means anything at all.

Nor does anything she says or does change my opinion of her as a very dangerous politician to democracy and particularly women and All Others, while totally in love with authoritarianism and obscene wealth.

 

 

[ThinkerX]

Kentucky GOP is pushing to legalize killing homeless people who trespass. Guess the gravediggers will be working triple shifts...

Kentucky Republicans Aim to Legalize 'Force' Against Homeless Trespassers (msn.com)

[drawkcabi]

I still have see-sawing emotions between hope and despair but this helps the hope side...

 

 

Edited January 24 by drawkcabi

[Phylum of Alexandria]

Amanda's got it right, as usual. Polls on Biden are harsh in part because a solid chunk of Democrats and independents haven't yet faced the reality of a Trump nomination. They are still in "referendum" mode and need to get the fuck into "choice" mode.

https://www.salon.com/2024/01/24/the-time-for-denial-is-over-really-will-pick-donald-as-their-nominee/

Edited January 24 by Phylum of Alexandria

[sologdin]

At risk of being overly optimistic, I think Biden write-in is a very positive sign.

a bit.  it's difficult to draw inferences from the numbers.  write-in biden voting looks good for him, but then again the number of votes counted in the dem primary are 105K, whereas the repubs had 300K voters in theirs.  uh oh? (the easy explanation is that no one cared in a primary that doesn't count; cf. 2020 election numbers, 790K for president.) the contrary and very attenuated inference is that NH's semi-closed primary allows non-party members, who want the current president to remain in office, to vote for the former president in the primary so as to set him up as the weaker candidate for the general. 

Edited January 24 by sologdin

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

57 minutes ago, sologdin said:

to vote for the former president in the primary so as to set him up as the weaker candidate for the general. 

I hate… hate… hate… hate… hate… HATE… this tactic with the white hot passion of a thousand burning suns.

Sometimes… it works.  But recall 2016 when everyone claimed it was impossible for Trump to win and Clinton to lose.

When this backfires… we all lose.

Edited January 24 by Ser Scot A Ellison

[Larry of the Lawn]

14 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I hate… hate… hate… hate… hate… HATE… this tactic with the white hot passion of a thousand burning suns.

Sometimes… it works.  But recall 2016 when everyone claimed it was impossible for Trump to win and Clinton to lose.

When this backfires… we all lose.

Well, I'm not convinced there's much evidence that a bunch of Dems and independents gave Trump the nomination.  The media certainly couldn't get enough of him but that's another story altogether.  

I think it'd be pretty easy to argue that a Cruz, Graham, or Christie presidency could have been even more damaging.  Trump's disinterest in legislating and governing kept him from doing much with the 2016-2018 Congress.  Obviously impossible to say when speculating on a counterfactual, but who knows?  

I think it's very unlikely that we'd get a scenario where Dems and independents organize enough to vote in statewide Republican primary for president and change the result.  I have friends that do that for local and in-state positions but I'd love to see some evidence that this is what happened with Trump.  A bunch of yahoos on a fantasy board hoping a Trump-Clinton election would have been the easiest for Clinton to win in 2016 is a far cry from it putting Trump in the Whitehouse.

Edited January 24 by Larry of the Lawn

[TrackerNeil]

2 hours ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

Amanda's got it right, as usual. Polls on Biden are harsh in part because a solid chunk of Democrats and independents haven't yet faced the reality of a Trump nomination. They are still in "referendum" mode and need to get the fuck into "choice" mode.

https://www.salon.com/2024/01/24/the-time-for-denial-is-over-really-will-pick-donald-as-their-nominee/

Great observation. I think those of us who avidly follow politics forget that the vast majority of Americans just don't pay much attention to primaries and polls and campaigns, particularly this early in the year. Throw in the extremely unusual scenario of a former president running for president, and you've got good cause to disregard early polling.