US Politics: Primary Schoolin'

[Maithanet]

I have trouble believing there is any meaningful number of Democrats that are voting for Trump because he's a weak candidate.  If you are going for "tactical voting" in NH, you would do better to vote for Haley, just so that the primary drags on longer.  As it is, the Republican primary is over barring some extremely unlikely event in the courtroom.  That isn't exactly setting Trump up as a weak candidate, instead it makes him appear strong. 

[TheKitttenGuard]

3 hours ago, sologdin said:

At risk of being overly optimistic, I think Biden write-in is a very positive sign.

a bit.  it's difficult to draw inferences from the numbers.  write-in biden voting looks good for him, but then again the number of votes counted in the dem primary are 105K, whereas the repubs had 300K voters in theirs.  uh oh? (the easy explanation is that no one cared in a primary that doesn't count; cf. 2020 election numbers, 790K for president.) the contrary and very attenuated inference is that NH's semi-closed primary allows non-party members, who want the current president to remain in office, to vote for the former president in the primary so as to set him up as the weaker candidate for the general. 

I am just viewing more it is harder to write-in than pull the lever and really just going off that.

On people write-in Biden for he will be weaker, it is possible but more unlikely. I think handing Biden a loss in primary will given winner some more press and a little humiliating.

Edited January 24 by TheKitttenGuard

[Kalbear]

Per reporting there were a lot of campaigns in NH to encourage dems and independents to vote for Haley now. The goal was to make Trump look weak and hedge against a Trump presidency - no thought was made to vote for the weaker candidate. 

That Haley lost anyway is not a very good sign.

[Phylum of Alexandria]

41 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

That Haley lost anyway is not a very good sign.

I dunno, some voters can be motivated to engage in such a tactic, but plenty of people don't. 

It's a win for Trump, but he himself seems unhappy with the result. He seems more threatened by Haley, and is therefore attacking her even more.

[Ormond]

24 minutes ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

I dunno, some voters can be motivated to engage in such a tactic, but plenty of people don't. 

It's a win for Trump, but he himself seems unhappy with the result. He seems more threatened by Haley, and is therefore attacking her even more.

Trump feels threatened by anyone who opposes him in any way, and the fact that Haley is a woman of South Asian ancestry makes him even more likely to attack her when she refuses to suspend her campaign and endorse him.

I really wonder why I still keep seeing speculation in the media that Haley will be Trump's VP pick. It might be a traditionally politically smart move for him to make, but why does anyone think that at this point in his life Trump can overcome his basic tendency to hate anyone who has opposed him in order to make such a "smart" political move?

[A Horse Named Stranger]

I dunno. I don't think it's as gloomy as kal thinks.

My read:

• The GOP is basically the fascist clown movement aka MAGA. We already knew that. Thus not really news.
• Interesting thing to look out for was the number of Republicans voting Haley (presumably those mythical anti-Drumpf republicans), and how the indepedents split (if htey bothered to show up to vote). Those two groups will be the swing voters Biden needs to win. (at least a sufficiently big enough chunk of them (across the US obviously)).
• Conversely: Among those swing voters 45 looked rather/weak vulnerable. I don't think he can win a GE without them.
• This will not help Haley in any shape or form, but once again this is interesting for Biden/Democrats for the GE.
• Next primaries will be absolutely brutal for Haley if she doesn't drop out. Next there's a caucus on the menu (Nevada I think), then things go to a closed primary in her homestate of SC. She will get absolutely trounced there (Presumably. We can ask Scot, whose inside information from his family are as good an insight into the minds of SC republicans as we are likely to get).

 

Edited January 24 by A Horse Named Stranger

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

24 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

I dunno. I don't think it's as gloomy as kal thinks.

My read:

• The GOP is basically the fascist clown movement aka MAGA. We already knew that. Thus not really news.
• Interesting thing to look out for was the number of Republicans voting Haley (presumably those mythical anti-Drumpf republicans), and how the indepedents split (if htey bothered to show up to vote). Those two groups will be the swing voters Biden needs to win. (at least a sufficiently big enough chunk of them (across the US obviously)).
• Conversely: Among those swing voters 45 looked rather/weak vulnerable. I don't think he can win a GE without them.
• This will not help Haley in any shape or form, but once again this is interesting for Biden/Democrats for the GE.
• Next primaries will be absolutely brutal for Haley if she doesn't drop out. Next there's a caucus on the menu (Nevada I think), then things go to a closed primary in her homestate of SC. She will get absolutely trounced there (Presumably. We can ask Scot, whose inside information from his family are as good an insight into the minds of SC republicans as we are likely to get).

 

I’m assuming gloomy until Trump is behind bars and legally prohibited from holding office.

[kissdbyfire]

12 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I’m assuming gloomy until Trump is behind bars and legally prohibited from holding office.

This x 1M. Coz seriously… if Mango wins, the whole world goes to shit, basically. But if he doesn’t win… anyone expecting him to concede graciously pls DM me, I have a nice plot of land to sell you - on the moon.

[Kalbear]

1 hour ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

I dunno. I don't think it's as gloomy as kal thinks.

To be clear I don't particularly think it's a gloomy thing for the general behavior. I think NH was a weird outlier in a lot of ways - independents were encouraged to vote for Haley, Biden wasn't even on the ballot, DeSantis had just dropped out - and taking any signs from that are probably more wish than anything else. 

What I was saying about it being not a good sign is for anyone who had hope that Trump would not be the nominee. This was almost certainly the absolute best shot for someone other than Trump to win, particularly someone who appeals to more independents - and they couldn't do it. Not with a shot in the arm from a ton of voters who said they'd vote Dem in the general, not with Trump's huge amount of baggage, not with a bunch of money. Trump won 75% of the Republican voters in a non-evangelical state. He's just going to win more in future states, and most of the future states are winner-take-all. 

As to South Carolina, any home advantage there is wiped out by it being a Republican-only primary and in a state where 4 of 10 Republicans identify as evangelicals. It's closer in makeup to Iowa. Haley will be crushed. 

 

[Jaxom 1974]

I honestly don't completely understand reading tea leaves from voters declaring they're moving from Trump in a New Hampshire primary and an Iowa caucus.  If South Carolina shows that line of thinking, or better yet Pennsylvania or Wisconsin...that would be a better indicator, no? And the idea that Haley sticks around until Pennsylvania or Wisconsin...seems far fetched, which would then move the calculus again, if there isn't another primary option of any kind?

[IheartIheartTesla]

It isnt just Trump vs Haley and percentage of support, I'd also keep a close eye on voter turnout compared to 2016. By the time PA/WI rolls around Haley may well drop out and that would be our only metric. 

I haven't yet looked up the NH primary turnout numbers for various cycles. Most voters, Republicans or Democrats want younger blood, that's for sure.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

8 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

I haven't yet looked up the NH primary turnout numbers for various cycles. Most voters, Republicans or Democrats want younger blood, that's for sure.

Democrats and indepedents, arguably.

Republicans? Based on what? They had their choices. They explicitly said, we want racist senile gramps,and not those other non-entities.

Edited January 24 by A Horse Named Stranger

[Zorral]

South Carolina like all the South is seriously mango base and territory -- and SC doesn't like Haley, despite having made her governor once upon a time who took down the CSA battle flag from state capitol.

How things happened in New Hampshire is unlikely to translate in baselandia.  With the exception that mango will become ever more unhinged in pubic and exhibiting ever more signals of dementia.  And demanding ever more violence against ever more individuals and groups too, of course.

[Zorral]

Ethics probe into GOP’s Matt Gaetz reportedly reaches a new level
The expectation was that the ethics investigation into Rep. Matt Gaetz was nearing its end. New reporting suggests the probe is actually intensifying.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/gaetz-house-ethics-probe-picks-steam-new-witnesses/story?id=106600322

https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/ethics-probe-gops-matt-gaetz-reportedly-reaches-new-level-rcna135459

 

 

[Corvinus85]

Jon Stewart will return to the Daily Show as executive producer and part-time host. https://variety.com/2024/tv/news/jon-stewart-daily-show-return-monday-1235885955/

Biden will win reelection.  

[Zorral]

The mind of the mango church members -- tRumperisto has convinced them the only salvation is to destroy the country and make everyone suffer, a lot.  Then, I guess Jesus comes and makes paradise.  That sounds so like the xtian sicko garbage -- redemption through suffering, renewal through suffering.  But that's all fascists and authoritarian snake oil fro whenever and wherever.

Our System Needs to Be Broken, and He Is the Man to Do It’
Ted Johnson sincerely thought he wanted a uniter not a divider. It didn’t last long.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/01/22/new-hampshire-primary-voter-00136850

Quote

 

.... “He’s a wrecking ball,” Johnson told me here at the place he chose called the Copper Door.

“Everybody’s going to say, ‘Trump is divisive,’” he said, “and he’s going to split the country in half.” He looked at me. “We got it,” he said.

It’s what the Ted Johnsons want. ....

.... 

“Going with Trump,” Johnson told me.

He referred to Haley as “a flip flop RINO.” He said she “speaks to one side then to the other and thinks we are not paying attention.” Republicans were “just as crappy” as Democrats, and Trump, he said, “is really the new 3rd party.”

“Our system needs to be broken,” Johnson had concluded, “and he is the man to do it.” ...

 

Why yes, this Johnson's proud of his own research, which amounts to "I heard trump say so."

Edited January 24 by Zorral

[Rippounet]

7 minutes ago, Zorral said:

The mind of the mango church members:

Our System Needs to Be Broken, and He Is the Man to Do It’
Ted Johnson sincerely thought he wanted a uniter not a divider. It didn’t last long.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/01/22/new-hampshire-primary-voter-00136850

Why yes, this Johnson's proud of his own research

It's truly difficult to follow the thought-process here. Zero logic and few solid facts.

Something like this:

Quote

 

“And trust me, the guy’s a pig, he’s a womanizer — arrogant a-----e,” Johnson said of Trump. “But I need somebody that’s going to go in and lead, and I need somebody that’s going to take care of the average guy.”

“But is taking care of the average guy and breaking the system the same thing?” I said.

“Yes,” he said. “Because they’re all in it for themselves.”

“And if you break the system, what does that look like?”

“Accountability,” he said.

 

... makes my head hurt a bit.

It's like this guy uses words, but cannot connect their meaning in a rational way. I mean, right from the start:

 

Quote

 

“He breaks the system,” he said, “he exposes the deep state, and it’s going to be a miserable four years for everybody.”

“For everybody?” I said.

“Everybody.”

“For you?”

“I think his policies are going to be good,” he said, “but it’s going to be hard to watch this happen to our country. He’s going to pull it apart.”

 

Uh... ok?

[Zorral]

1 minute ago, Rippounet said:

It's truly difficult to follow the thought-process here. Zero logic and few solid facts.

Something like this:

... makes my head hurt a bit.

It's like this guy uses words, but cannot connect their meaning in a rational way. I mean, right from the start:

 

Uh... ok?

It almost appears as though the journalist's source here didn't entirely level with him from the git go.  This guy sounds like a Left Behinder.  In that context of rhetoric and context it does make sense.

If not being an unfortunately USian you haven't heard of this garbage here you go:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Left_Behind

 

 

[kissdbyfire]

17 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Then, I guess Jesus comes and makes paradise.

But... Mango = Jesus, only he's better b/c there's none of that "love thy neighbour" bollocks. At least it seems that's how the maggats see it. Did you see the advert?

And of course the Lincoln Project made one of their own...

 

 

 

[Zorral]

1 minute ago, kissdbyfire said:

Did you see the advert?

Nope.  Don't watch videos hardly ever of anything that isn't literally for the movie and tv industries.  I haven't the patience to sit through all that guff -- and not only the commercials.  I can skip the guff in print, but videos don't allow it.