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US Politics: A democratic election Prospect Theory and practice


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As for what Birdy is doing.

Didn't she give upon chocolate for lent?

I think she gathered her group of church ladies and stormed and occupied a chocolate factory. Sorta Willie Wonka meets Charlie's Angels. (Best Movie Idea ever)

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4 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

I'd think the Democrats would also wave through a combined bill. It'd be utter madness to leave Ukraine hanging to make some hay and grandstand over Gaza. Maybe with Europe literally an ocean away Ukraine looks more like an issue to play politics over (as shown by the GOP). But I'd like to think the House Democrats are smarter.

Depending on how things shake out, Democrats could straight up have the majority and just make Jeffries Speaker (albeit only until a few special elections in safe Republican seats wrap up). Right now, if nothing else changes or really unexpected things happen, from April 30 to May 21 the Republican majority will be down to 217-214. There's been ongoing rumors that another couple House Republicans are already planning to resign soon. If there's a new round of chaos because of a move to vacate the speaker, it's not that hard to image a couple more than that calling it quits and all of a sudden Democrats have a 214-213 majority or thereabouts. And since special elections take time to organize, they could potentially have that majority for a month or two.

Fantastical? Sure. But not actually as crazy unlikely as it sounds.

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7 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

I'd think the Democrats would also wave through a combined bill.

Much of the CPC had reservations six weeks ago when the Senate passed their supplemental.  I'd have to imagine that's only hardened since, especially considering the American public now decidedly disapproves of Israel's actions.

And, of course, Johnson is going to need most Democrats, because most GOP members are going to oppose any bill including Ukraine funding.

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They might have reservations. But when push came to shove (I hope that) need to get Ukraine armed tops the politics wrt Israel, who frankly speaking unlike Ukraine could do without US support.

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1 minute ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

But when push came to shove (I hope that) need to get Ukraine armed tops the politics wrt Israel, who frankly speaking unlike Ukraine could do without US support.

Again, the point here is they have to get 2/3s of the entire House.  And considering you can only rely on maybe 90 GOP votes,  I don't see that happening right now with Israel funding attached.  At least not the way it was in the Senate supplemental.

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1 hour ago, DMC said:

A number of Dem MCs have already gone on record stating they will back him in exchange for putting Ukraine aid on the floor.  Quite possibly already enough to account for Greene's suicide squad.

Actually, the tricky thing at this point is deciding whether to combine Ukraine and Israel aid as it is in the already-passed Senate supplemental, or just put both up individually.  To bypass the Rules Committee, Johnson needs 2/3s support.  He'd definitely get that for a Ukraine-only bill, but enough Democrats would probably balk at a bill that included funding for Israel.

So do you think at least some form of Ukraine aid will be passed in the next month or two?

That would be nice.

Edit: Just saw your post from a few minutes ago.

 

 

Edited by A True Kaniggit
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13 minutes ago, A True Kaniggit said:

So do you think at least some form of Ukraine aid will be passed in the next month or two?

I do.  I just think it's more likely Johnson will end up having to split the Ukraine and Israel aid into two bills, as he's already been floating.  I also think he might try to include some type of concessions to the GOP conference for the Ukraine aid - namely, earmarking the aid as an interest-free loan.  Indeed, that compromise might be able to generate enough GOP votes to continue to link the Ukraine and Israel funding in one bill.

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7 hours ago, Larry of the Lawn said:

RawMilkMike has gotta be lurking on this thread like a flu-infected vulture circling the carcass pit behind a dairy.  

I assume that when the pandemic came around, he used his vast powers of research and deduction, snorted powdered anal polyps to avoid Covid, and got called home.

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The incessant playing of the same political ad, that started yesterday, pleading with Wisconites voting in the Democrat Promary to vote, "Uninformed" to protest, specifically, spending money in Israel is not the winner they think it is. Mostly because having it play during every commercial block, seemingly on every channel, sometimes three times is too much. 

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Embittered Republicans plot to knock off House GOP’s hard-right leader in Virginia primary feud:

Quote

Good, the leader of the House Freedom Caucus and one of eight Republicans who voted to oust Kevin McCarthy from the speakership, has been at the center of internal GOP infighting that has left their party’s agenda in tatters and their conference embroiled in a bitter civil war.

Now Van Orden has joined hands with a band of House Republicans angling to knock Good off in his June primary by propping up his primary opponent, John McGuire – a tactic long viewed as a serious breach of protocol but one that underscores the bad blood within the House GOP.

 

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31 minutes ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

It will become like ISIS and ISIS-K where the truly insane will split because the others arent nuts enough for them.

Republicans and MAGA-K's :lmao:

Why not MAGA and MAGA-K?

I mean why would a person not ok with MAGA still vote Republican?

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43 minutes ago, A True Kaniggit said:

The country can not survive another four years of Biden!

Well, that, and the threat of Madame President Harris.   So scary!     :lol:  evil cackling laff

Edited by LongRider
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