International Events : How I learnt to stop worrying and love the-

[karaddin]

I'm not sure I'd interpret Jace's views as that, I think she just has zero care or concern for the lives of anyone that isn't American citizens or probably Israeli Jews. Not even us lapdog allies of the US actually matter as anything more than pawns on the chess board.

[Jace, Extat]

34 minutes ago, House Balstroko said:

I agree with them being an important ally, though I’m not sure they are entirely irreplaceable. You could make the case for Jordan fitting into that role. 
 

While I’m a firm supporter of Israel, it doesn’t mean they should be given carte  blanche to pound Gaza to dust or endlessly expand the settlements in the West Bank. 

No, no, no... Jordan is not Israel. Israel is more than an ally-able piece of geography. Israel has acting power. You don't trade away a relationship with a world actor. Irreplaceable. Much more useful than France or the Saudis.

33 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Still not an answer.

Are you asking, like what I'd do if I was in charge of Israel? What I'd advise?

8 minutes ago, karaddin said:

I'm not sure I'd interpret Jace's views as that, I think she just has zero care or concern for the lives of anyone that isn't American citizens or probably Israeli Jews. Not even us lapdog allies of the US actually matter as anything more than pawns on the chess board.

Oh come now darling, don't speak so sweetly about me; I'm like to swoon. 

 

[Crixus]

14 hours ago, Jace, Extat said:

One war at a time my dear. Hamas in Gaza is being dealt with now, their ability to conduct another Oct. 7th attack is being destroyed. A sword removed from the hand of Iran.

Once the southern and northern borders are secure, Gaza under military control, strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities can begin in earnest.

This jingoistic posturing is truly awesome to behold. Smacks of someone who's spent an inordinate amount of time wanking to C-grade USmarinesinvincible flicks. How edgy of you - your posts on Israel/Gaza come off embarrassingly, laughably self-important. Seriously, thanks for the chuckle. 

Edited May 3 by Crixus

[Crixus]

17 hours ago, Spockydog said:

Two female news journalists have been sacked since trying to hold Israeli war criminals to account on British TV & radio. 

Sangita Myska and Bella Donita. Each of them interviewed an Israeli official, minus the usual soft soaping. Each of them sacked afterwards.

Myska was replaced with regular Israeli mouthpiece, Vanessa Feltz.

 

 

Real shame re Sangita, she's great (I'm not familiar with Bella). I seem to recall Mehdi Hasan also being sidelined/let go by MSNBC and he's now started his own thing - I'm sure she'll do well wherever she lands next. 

Edited May 3 by Crixus

[House Balstroko]

5 hours ago, Jace, Extat said:

No, no, no... Jordan is not Israel. Israel is more than an ally-able piece of geography. Israel has acting power. You don't trade away a relationship with a world actor. Irreplaceable. Much more useful than France or the Saudis.

 

Definitely not on the same level as France. France is one of the main global players. Israel is a strategic ally as well, though it doesn’t hold as much sway. 

[The Anti-Targ]

Israel is the tail that wags the US dog. Such is the irreplaceability it knows it is in the mind of the US political class it can act with impunity even to the detriment of the USA and Israel. It is as a willful and petulant child and the USA is an indulgent and negligent parent.

[Rippounet]

Saudi Arabia is by far the world's first oil exporter, with massive reserves.
It could be a far better "irreplaceable" ally than Israel (or France).
At least get your realpolitik right ffs.

[ljkeane]

40 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

Saudi Arabia is by far the world's first oil exporter, with massive reserves.
It could be a far better "irreplaceable" ally than Israel (or France).
At least get your realpolitik right ffs.

Indeed. From a realpolitik perspective of the US regional allies Saudi Arabia is obviously the most significant and I’d argue Egypt, Turkey and the UAE are more useful for US interests than Israel. The US is probably harming its own interests in the region with its support for Israel.

It’s kind of odd that supporting Israel no matter what has become such a central feature of US foreign policy. It really wasn’t the case until the 80s, maybe the 90s?

ETA: Thinking about it, it was definitely the late 90s. It really wasn’t a notable thing for the US to vote in favour of Security Council resolutions critical of Israel before then.

Edited May 3 by ljkeane

[polishgenius]

9 hours ago, karaddin said:

I'm not sure I'd interpret Jace's views as that, I think she just has zero care or concern for the lives of anyone that isn't American citizens or probably Israeli Jews. Not even us lapdog allies of the US actually matter as anything more than pawns on the chess board.

 

That may well be true.
But America has other enemies, and she's nowhere near as aggressive in her rhetoric- which she has repeatedly stated to be genuine- towards those. She isn't preaching that the US should nuke North Korea, or move in and slaughter everyone in Cuba. 

[Bironic]

2 hours ago, ljkeane said:

It’s kind of odd that supporting Israel no matter what has become such a central feature of US foreign policy. It really wasn’t the case until the 80s, maybe the 90s?

ETA: Thinking about it, it was definitely the late 90s. It really wasn’t a notable thing for the US to vote in favour of Security Council resolutions critical of Israel before then.

There were a number of things that made this I think: The rise of the evangelical right starting in 70s made it so that Republican presidents from Reagan onwards had to be as pro-israel as you can be to get the nomination or be elected in the GE. Funny thing is, that the Evangelicals want all Jews to be in the Holy land so that the Apocalypse can start and all the unrepenting jews (those that don't convert to christianity, aka all of them) die and go to hell. So their support for Israel is in fact anti-jewish...

At the same time we saw a rise in Islamism in the whole Arab-muslim world. Pro Western Shah was replaced by Ayatollahs in 1979, the attack on the great mosque in 1979 ignited sunni-islamist movements, the civil war in Lebanon 1975-1990 saw the rise of Hizbullah, Iran-Syria-Hizbullah allied themselves against Israel and USA at least after the gulf wars were over, the first Intifada (1987-1991) saw the rise of Hamas, and the war in Afghanistan 1978-1996/2021 saw the rise of the Taliban and Al-qaeda, leading to 9/11 and the "war on terror". Since then I think we see this sort of unwafering US-Israel alliance...

There was also a shift from largely centre-left governments in Israel between 1947 and 1979, towards more right wing governments after that, and since the 2000s a shift even further to the right, that made the alliance between Israel and the US-republicans and the centrist/conservative part of the democrats much easier, due to an overall more similar ideology.

Finally the US dependence on middle eastern fossil fuels is now smaller than it was back in the day, due to things such as fracking, oil sands, more diverse fossil fuel suppliers, green energy etc. Making the various arab-muslim countries less valuable as allies...

Edited May 3 by Bironic

[Mudguard]

22 hours ago, Kalbear said:

They should probably mention that as one of their goals, then. 

ETA: I also don't think that it's clear that that's where they'll declare victory. Given this Israeli government and their goals I don't think it's really clear when they'll stop at all, and it is significantly in this government's interests to prolong it for as long as they can. 

Israel has been very clear about their goals in Rafah, their goals of "destroying Hamas", and that they plan to occupy Gaza indefinitely.  With respect to Rafah, they claim that there are some remaining battalions that they want to dismantle.  I should add though that I think it will be very difficult to declare victory, at least complete victory, without recovering all the hostages.  Almost every time Netanyahu gives a speech it's about how they are going to achieve a great victory.  Personally, I think it's laughable to call what they've done a victory, but it's obviously a part of his propaganda strategy.

Dismantling the Rafah battalions, at least to an extent that they will declare the battalions dismantled, won't take more than a couple months, if they can operate freely in Rafah (bulk of civilians evacuated).  It shouldn't be any different than what they've done in Gaza City and Khan Younis.  

It's clear that Netanyahu desperately wants to declare some sort of victory as soon as possible.  He just can't stop talking about it, and he needs a political win.  But I also agree that Netanyahu would like for the conflict, whether its with Hamas, Hezbollah, or some other party, to extend past 2026.  Maybe he'll claim victory over the Hamas army/organized fighting force/whatever it's called, like how Bush prematurely declared victory on an aircraft carrier, and shift the narrative to rescuing the remaining hostages and hunting down Sinwar and other leaders still in Gaza during the indefinite occupation phase of his strategy.  The resistance in Gaza post "victory" is likely to be very active, and maybe that'll be enough conflict for Netanyahu.

[Zorral]

12 hours ago, Jace, Extat said:

Israel is an ally. An irreplaceable ally.

iI is not irreplaceable, as you might have noticed if you ever looked at anything except, I dunno, twitter feeds or something.

THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN

Israel and Saudi Arabia Are Trading Places

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/02/opinion/israel-saudi-arabia.html

Quote

 

Saudi Arabia and Israel are America’s two most important Middle East allies, and the Biden administration is deeply involved with both today, trying to forge a mutual defense treaty with Saudi Arabia and help Israel in its conflicts with Hamas and Iran. But the Biden team has run into an unprecedented situation with these two longtime partners that is creating a huge opportunity and a huge danger for America. It derives from the contrast in their internal politics.

To put it bluntly, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has put his country’s worst religious extremists in jail, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has put his country’s worst religious extremists in his cabinet.

And therein lies a tale.

M.B.S., with his laser focus on economic growth after several decades that he has described Saudi Arabia as having been “sleeping,” has unleashed the most important social revolution ever in the desert kingdom — and one that is sending shock waves around the Arab world. It has reached a point where the U.S. and Saudi Arabia are now putting the finishing touches on a formal alliance that could isolate Iran, curb China’s influence in the Middle East and peacefully inspire more positive change in this region than the U.S. invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan ever did militarily.

M.B.S.’s government did something appalling when it killed Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, a liberal critic living in the United States, in Istanbul in 2018. M.B.S. has also done something none of his predecessors dared: break the stranglehold that the most conservative Islamists held over Saudi social and religious policy since 1979. This shift has proved so popular among so many Saudi women and young people that women’s participation in the work force jumped to 35 percent from 20 percent between 2018 and 2022, according to a report by the Atlantic Council, and is even higher today.

That is one of the most rapid social changes anywhere in the world. In Riyadh, you see its impact on the city’s streets, in its coffeehouses and in government and business offices. Saudi women aren’t just driving cars; they are driving change, in the diplomatic corps, in the biggest banks and in the recent Saudi women’s premier soccer league. M.B.S.’s radical new vision for his country is nowhere more manifest than in his publicly stated willingness to normalize diplomatic and economic relations with the Jewish state as part of a new mutual defense pact with the United States.

The crown prince wants as peaceful a region as possible, and a Saudi Arabia as secure from Iran as possible, so he can focus on making Saudi Arabia a diversified economic powerhouse. ....

 

In fact Israel is rapidly being replaced through the efforts of bibi and his bigoted, ignorant government, as Friedman details in the the piece.

[DMC]

Jace’s absurd schtick aside, I don’t think replacing Israel with Saudi Arabia as a key Middle East ally should be desirable for those that have a moral objection to the US’ support of the Israeli regime.

Further, considering Blinken and others continue to work towards a normalization between the two, I don’t think the US views it was an either/or prospect.

[Jace, Extat]

7 hours ago, Rippounet said:

Saudi Arabia is by far the world's first oil exporter, with massive reserves.
It could be a far better "irreplaceable" ally than Israel (or France).
At least get your realpolitik right ffs.

Strong disagree on the Saudis, but I'll open the kimono here: I mentioned France just for you 

[Zorral]

2 hours ago, DMC said:

don’t think replacing Israel with Saudi Arabia as a key Middle East ally should be desirable for those that have a moral objection to the US’ support of the Israeli regime.

Fixed that.  Israel is no ally at all, and has nothing going without USA grace and favor.

I wouldn't trust Saudi at all either, particularly when it comes to all sorts of things, just starting with women's autonomy, anti-slavery, and freedom of the press.  But at the moment ... and it has loads more resources than Israel, whose only resource is grace and favor.

[DMC]

10 minutes ago, Zorral said:

and it has loads more resources than Israel, whose only resource is grace and favor.

I dunno they also rather clearly have the most advanced military in the region.  Granted, that’s due to decades of grace and favor, but I don’t think it should be dismissed if we’re making comparisons.

[kissdbyfire]

Does the media ignore this type of news or do they call her an antisemite & a terrorist? 

 

 

[Ran]

The Dartmouth clarified and gave more accurate reporting.

[Larry of the Lawn]

Wrong thread 

Edited May 3 by Larry of the Lawn

[House Balstroko]

9 hours ago, DMC said:

Jace’s absurd schtick aside, I don’t think replacing Israel with Saudi Arabia as a key Middle East ally should be desirable for those that have a moral objection to the US’ support of the Israeli regime.

Further, considering Blinken and others continue to work towards a normalization between the two, I don’t think the US views it was an either/or prospect.

It shouldn’t be an either/or prospect. Having more allies is beneficial to all parties involved. Building a strong foundation between Israel and SA helps mitigate Iran’s influence in the region.