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You're not wrong - it's a complicated effect. Savers (notably, baby boomers) are doing really well right now. My parents have most of their life savings in term deposits that are paying very handsomely compared to a few years ago. This supports consumption and is a reason services-related inflation is running hot in Australia. The effect on banks is a little more nuanced. Yes, they are earning more on interest-bearing assets (like the reserves that have at the RBA), as well as their mortgage book, which is largely variable rate debt. But they are also paying more in terms of funding costs - particularly on wholesale funding, on which Australian banks are very reliant. This is hampering their ability to extend credit. So I don't think that aspect of high interest rates is particularly inflationary. The big problem I see for the RBA (and the reason I see them holding or raising interest rates further) is that lower interest rates is going to put more money in the pockets of many consumers and businesses with floating-rate debt that they will probably spend immediately. That is going to juice domestic inflation even more. And, of course, there is the small matter of the $AUD, which could collapse further if the RBA cuts, making everything we import even more expensive. My overall position remains as it has been all year - doubting that the Reserve got this right and expecting inflation to be sticky.

Shane. Come back Shane. Mommy loves you.

I was very in flagrante and not answering the phone Law Professor brought flowers for me from his garden The cats have enjoyed eating the leaves.

I finally just finished watching this. I liked and admired both seasons very much, but for some reason had a difficult time getting myself to watch it. This is one of those shows that doesn't benefit from having a week between release of episodes. It began right before going away for about a month, so when I returned there were lots of things to watch, and also, jetlagged, it was hard to get back into. Then at one point I caught up to where season 2 was. After a week, I was entirely meh at getting back to it again. Now that all rest of the episodes are up, I watched one of the remaining eps each night, and everything seemed to be snappier -- and a lot more involving. I dunno.

You nailed it! Thanks.

Well, it’s a wrap. As a note, I have never read (or heard of..) the book, so show-watcher only. In general, loved this show immensely from ep 1-9. Final episode was also good, in one way, but at least personally for me, it lacked some depth and punch. To me, the whole undercurrent of the show is how big of a manipulator and puppetmaster Toranaga is, and then (and I think it’s mentioned by someone else earlier in the thread) the big reveal is a two-minute conversation about his masterplan… I kind of think I see what they are trying to do, and in some way it is quite clever (in the sense that simplicity sometimes can be quite forceful I guess), but at least for me personally it was not a home-run. I wouldn’t require a huge battle or long action-scenes, but at least spending more than 3-4% of the episode on it would be good (I also felt the turnaround to lady Ochiba was explained in a very superficial way, with some other parts also a bit underplayed..). I still rate it as a 5 out of 6 show without hesitating, but until the finale it was an undisputed 6/6 for me, so a bit of a let-down unfortunately. (but what do I know… )

Of course, ergo why a text was out of the question for obvious reasons, a call unwelcome, and the proposition was out regardless. Don't ask again, T. Even if we give them wins on the little white lies every now and then [knowingly looking away for their sense of autonomy] the girls are honest with us about the important things. edit: too much repetitive language today. couch is looking comfy, might take a nap

Have you considered your daughter tried to trick you into buying booze, her friend's mum wouldn't?

Tyrion gets sense, kid's smart as as the tip of a whip, but she's got to try every angle first. Liability was my firm counter argument in the aforementioned exchange. Also agree about the developmental concerns. I worry every time they go to a party though, but at least their mom and I know when they go to a party and can be as certain as we can that they're drinking responsibly and looking out for their friends. Least harm kind of thing.

They still need to be fed though. The Golden Company is only 10,000 and according to the sample chapter they're having to plunder food from peasants. I don't see how Daenerys can feed even that much, even if she decides to starve peasants so her army has more food, I don't think the supplies would last.

We have a similar policy re: telling the truth with our child, and agree that creating a total taboo can lead to pretty bad consequences when they do head off for college/turn 21 due to lack of self control. I'd have no problem with ours having a glass of wine if we were in a country with a lower drinking age etc. That said, 14 seems a tad young in my book, if for nothing else due to developmental concerns. My bigger concern wouldn't be for my kid, but anytime someone else's kid is involved, it can get legally harrowing if anything goes wrong or their parents get involved/school finds out.

I don’t think it’s possible to bring more than 25-30,000, soldiers, a huge military achievement in itself.

That's a bit heavy. I can't speak for other parents permissive structures, but the ex and I had a few lengthy discussions about how we were going to approach our daughters inevitable partying [both of us were bad for this in our teens] so the policy we decided to adopt was, look, we don't approve but know you're going to do it anyway, so we'd rather you get a safe supply from someone trustworthy meaning us, no more than a six pack and nothing heavier than 5% alcohol content. But if we find out you've been dipping into your friends or others' supplies [and we will find out] are drinking anything more substantial than a beer or a cooler, or are wasted when either your mom or I pick you up, the consequences will biblical. In approach, not entirely dissimilar to how we got them out of lying [generally] Tell us the truth, there will be little to no consequences. Lie to us, watch your ass. They lost their phones, their TVs, computers, sleep overs, visits, the works. Month at a time. re: underage drinking, they haven't abused it so far. But I'm not buying booze for their friends.

Impressive footage of the Su-25 attack on Novopokrovka, right on the very battle front. Lots of people asking "where the fuck was Russia's air defence?" presumably starting with the Russians being bombarded.

If anyone needs to hear a more optimistic take on Biden's election prospects that doesn't veer into hopium, Simon Rosenberg gives a sober and intelligent take on the data. It's a good discussion.

The only real issue with The Heroes is that you just can't recommend it to your friends as "one of the best Fantasy books ever", because it still would be best if they actually read the 4 previous books to fully enjoy it.

Sure that’s valid but I thought they were setting Ochiba up as a manipulator and it’s obvious that Ishido is more controllable than Toranaga. She had power in the current situation and had to know if Toranaga won she’d have no power anymore.

I don't really think that's a realistic option. Too many forms of static defense (Minefields, Trenches, Dragons teeth) combined with mass artillery, drones, manpads and air attacks...

FTFY Can I just say, you've obviously lived way too long in Germany. Neverlosen ffs. Even I find this one painful.

Well, being smart and being wise are different concepts, as we all know. The Supreme Court hosts quite a few smart people, but - seemingly - five are sorely lacking in wisdom. So how to set up a society where such unwise people can be weeded out is a question worth pondering.

Of course. Just wanted to mention it cuz since he was linked to the Niners often the past few months, I read up quite a bit on him.

I think Ochiba realized Ishido is just a brute who would do anything to get his way. Mariko outmaneuvers him, and while publicly he acknowledges that she was free to leave, he sends Shinobi after her. Obviously no one would openly accuse him of this, but everyone with a brain knew it was him. So considering her own conversation with Mariko that eventually came to a head about protecting her son's life, Ochiba concluded that being allied with Ishido was not in the best interest of her son. Her care for her son outweighed any personal hatred of Toranaga. (of course, Toranaga could just as easily dispose of her and her son, but he is subtle not like Ishido) Some of Ochiba's change in attitude towards Ishido is more subtle, like Mariko's poem about a leafless branch, which Yabushige, a man trained in poetry called stupid, while Ishigo, who has more humbler beginnings, praised it. I think there was a moment that Ochiba looked like she was internally laughing at Ishido.

Well, the army will be fed before the local peasants. The peasants will have to eat those secret Targaryan banners they've been making for the last 17 years. We've seen cannibalism around the peripheries of this story. Winter seems like as appropriate a time as any for it to take the center stage.

Isn't the correct response: 'no, but I will happily call child protective services if I receive that text.' ?

Yeah, there just isn't enough food to go around at this point. Yes, it also seems like the vast majority of people there are going to starve. I don't see how Stannis is going to avoid starvation, for example. His troops are already starving and even if they take Winterfell that won't solve the issue because Theon notes food in Winterfell is running out. And as you point out, it seems to be impossible to transport food over with those conditions. So unless the battle absolutely decimates everyone to the point where there is like Stannis plus ten guys left...