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US Politics. Trump Crossing the Dnieper. Alea Iacta Est.


A Horse Named Stranger

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26 minutes ago, DMC said:

 Unless they, like, took a siesta in the middle or something, there's a lot missing. 

Donnie Double Scoops would sooner see half the country dead than allow a "siesta" in his White House. And I expect you to remember that going forward. Downright disrespectful even to suggest such a thing.

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2 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

Donnie Double Scoops would sooner see half the country dead than allow a "siesta" in his White House. And I expect you to remember that going forward. Downright disrespectful even to suggest such a thing.

Oh, Mr. Trump loves the cultures and customs of all Mexicans and those from the Lower Americas.  He frequents Taco Bell and appreciates the cultural contribution of the toasted cheddar chalupa.  "Siesta" is a fun new way to refer to Trump's daily afternoon nap.  Mr. Trump has a lot to learn from these credits to their race, as they most surely have much to learn from him.

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3 hours ago, Gertrude said:

I don't doubt that there is missing content (it's a summary, after all) but I don't think the time of the conversation is really that relevant. Have you seen Zelensky speaking English? He's fluent in conversational English, but for a high level, diplomatic conversation, I doubt it would have been conducted entirely in English. Pleasantries, sure, but diplomatic conversations where nuance matters, I doubt it. Not that this was a diplomatic call per se, but Zelensky didn't know it was going to be a shake-down.

In addition to other points made, both according to lots of reports AND s.o.p. Zelensky probably very much knew what the conservation was going to be like. There are usually a lot of preparations/negotiations about what that kind of call will involve before it’s ever made. It’s a bit like talk-show appearances.

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On 10/1/2019 at 7:40 AM, Zorral said:

So this is why trump was so hateful with the Australian prime minister his first week in office.  It was a mystery to me. 

A tsunami of caca. 

Wrong PM. Assuming you're referring to when Trump's first week in office that was Turnbull. Morrison is genuinely right wing US style evangelical genuine believer. Trump seems to get along with that sort just fine.

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Looks like Trump approval ratings have taken a modest hit, but some of it may just be from survey response rates being distorted (538 had an article about that). Still, I'd rather see a drop than movement in the opposite direction.

Just like Clinton and Benghazi, everyone needs to keep associating Trump and Ukraine so it sticks in low-information voters heads. The fear is that it will be diffused among the now widening array of players.

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Quote

Privately, the president had often talked about fortifying a border wall with a water-filled trench, stocked with snakes or alligators, prompting aides to seek a cost estimate. He wanted the wall electrified, with spikes on top that could pierce human flesh. After publicly suggesting that soldiers shoot migrants if they threw rocks, the president backed off when his staff told him that was illegal. But later in a meeting, aides recalled, he suggested that they shoot migrants in the legs to slow them down. That’s not allowed either, they told him.

Trump Privately Responded to Border Crisis With Dreams of Alligator-Filled Moats

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/10/trump-wanted-border-wall-alligator-filled-moats-snakes-spikes-shoot-immigrants.html

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Qualified in the legal sense of the term.  That doesn't mean he was ever a good choice for the office.

yeah, the editorial is not good. it doesn't address art. II(1)(5) qualifications at all--though we shouldn't've expected much going in, as it is difficult to imagine how trump could become disqualified for the office at this point, other than voluntary renunciation of US citizenship.  otherwise, the editorial's principal argument regarding wrongdoing undermines a fitness for duty argument under art. II(1)(6) or am. XXV(3) & (4).

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1 hour ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Looks like Trump approval ratings have taken a modest hit, but some of it may just be from survey response rates being distorted (538 had an article about that)

Yeah I noticed the 538 aggregate took a steep drop the past couple days.  Could just be noise/what polls are being counted, should wait a few days before describing it as a trend.

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17 minutes ago, DMC said:

Yeah I noticed the 538 aggregate took a steep drop the past couple days.  Could just be noise/what polls are being counted, should wait a few days before describing it as a trend.

Trump also had a few better than average polls in the week before, like the Emerson College poll at 48% approval and the Marist poll at 44%.  Those are gradually getting faded out, which explains some of the decline as well.  Overall, there hasn't been much movement in the polls from this scandal.  His net approval has gone from -10 to -12.  That's nothing.  In the shutdown fight he was down at -17, and in the healthcare fight he was at -20. 

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2 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Overall, there hasn't been much movement in the polls from this scandal.  His net approval has gone from -10 to -12.  That's nothing.

Disagree it means nothing.  A 2 point drop in 2 days is something to look at, and could presage something.  But that remains to be seen.

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1 minute ago, DMC said:

Disagree it means nothing.  A 2 point drop in 2 days is something to look at, and could presage something.  But that remains to be seen.

Well in order to get two full points of movement you have to go back to September 25, so we're talking about a week's movement, not two days.  Looking at the 538 chart, there are plenty of times that his net approval moves 2 points in the space of a week.  Hell, his net approval went up 1.9 points in the previous week (Sept 18-25), and it's not like he was doing anything popular then.

I think we've seen enough to say that the initial polling reaction is Trump's approval is either unchanged or slightly worse.  We'll see how the scandal develops from here. 

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It’s been interesting to hear the speculation about what the State Department’s IG is going to present to Congress today. 

Some commentators have pointed out that Pompeo led the Benghazi inquiry, in which he torched numerous State Department officials, and there’s a lot of deep resentment still present over those hearings. 

I also see that Trump has called a press conference for 2:00 pm. I wonder if they have figured out what the IG is going to say and are going to try to undercut him. Or, if the IG is going to present pro-Trump information, if Trump is going to pre-empt him.

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Just now, Fragile Bird said:

It’s been interesting to hear the speculation about what the State Department’s IG is going to present to Congress today. 

What is the speculation? It crosses my mind that the State department I.G. may be undertaking an investigation himself and is alerting the House of Representatives to that fact. 

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4 minutes ago, Gaston de Foix said:

What is the speculation? It crosses my mind that the State department I.G. may be undertaking an investigation himself and is alerting the House of Representatives to that fact. 

It has been reported he has documents to present. Perhaps evidence of Giuliani and the State Department working together? But it’s all speculation at this point.

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