Fez Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 9 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said: Do many people do that? I've left local spots blank sometimes when I didn't know much about the candidates, but never for a national or state-level position. In 2016, across the 33 states that reported the numbers, it was 1.7 million voters. The highest rate was in Montana, where it was almost 4% of voters; followed by Arizona with still over 3%. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/12/14/1-7-million-people-in-33-states-and-dc-cast-a-ballot-without-voting-in-the-presidential-race/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 41 minutes ago, Gaston de Foix said: This mystifies me. Bernie is a leader of the party from the left and also an important Senate vote. To join Biden's cabinet as labor secretary will be trading away a lot of power and influence for having to hew the WH line. Obama appointed so many talented politicians to his cabinet: Sebelius, Napolitano, Salazar. They served well, but they would have helped him much more in their home states. Has Sanders joined the Democratic Party? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IheartIheartTesla Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 Pre-debate aftereffect, but Muhlenberg (A+ pollster) has Biden up by 7 in PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 35 minutes ago, Fez said: In 2016, across the 33 states that reported the numbers, it was 1.7 million voters. The highest rate was in Montana, where it was almost 4% of voters; followed by Arizona with still over 3%. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/12/14/1-7-million-people-in-33-states-and-dc-cast-a-ballot-without-voting-in-the-presidential-race/ Before the debate MSNBC had a quick interview with three black women, I believe in Atlanta, who were undecided. They all agreed that Trump was a piece of shit and that they wouldn't vote for him, but they couldn't decide if they'd vote for Biden or just leave the presidential vote blank. This is what I never get. There are two choices. You know one is far worse than the other. But you can't decide what to do? Not voting means you get a four year STFU card. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ran Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
karaddin Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 7 hours ago, DMC said: Funniest thing I've ever heard you say. Then you underappreciate his dry humor 1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said: Based on what? His low popularity? Undecideds won't rush to the guy they never supported. After four years...... If you're inclined to eventually break for Biden then you're likely to have already done so, there's been very little lately to cause shame in voting for him. People that were always going to wind up coming home to roost for the GOP but know that voting for Trump is shameful however have a reason to have kept it to the last minute, lying to themselves until then. It minimizes the time they feel shit about it and then move right on to rationalisation once it's done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaston de Foix Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 19 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: Before the debate MSNBC had a quick interview with three black women, I believe in Atlanta, who were undecided. They all agreed that Trump was a piece of shit and that they wouldn't vote for him, but they couldn't decide if they'd vote for Biden or just leave the presidential vote blank. This is what I never get. There are two choices. You know one is far worse than the other. But you can't decide what to do? Not voting means you get a four year STFU card. eh, my somewhat cynical view is that a lot of folks are professing an undecided status to get themselves on telly. We should worry more about people who can't be arsed to vote rather than people who are sufficiently engaged to have informed views and in-depth conversations about the pros and cons of the candidates. Mind you, voting is needlessly difficult in the U.S. and I will never understand why more wasn't done about it before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, Gaston de Foix said: eh, my somewhat cynical view is that a lot of folks are professing an undecided status to get themselves on telly. We should worry more about people who can't be arsed to vote rather than people who are sufficiently engaged to have informed views and in-depth conversations about the pros and cons of the candidates. Mind you, voting is needlessly difficult in the U.S. and I will never understand why more wasn't done about it before. Because so many people are just so undecided on who to vote for.... Do you not see the obvious loop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 11 minutes ago, karaddin said: People that were always going to wind up coming home to roost for the GOP but know that voting for Trump is shameful however have a reason to have kept it to the last minute, lying to themselves until then. It minimizes the time they feel shit about it and then move right on to rationalisation once it's done. I'm sure there are some GOP voters like this, but I think most of those voters were already with Trump before today (his numbers with Republicans are much better than they were in 2016, for example). Polling of who the remaining undecided voters are in 2020 found that they were disproportionately younger voters, and disproportionately Latino. That does not sound like the profile of people who are just waiting for the slightest excuse to vote Trump. We'll see. Like I said last night, I expect a tiny bit of movement towards Trump in the final 11 days, partly because of the debate, partly just because of polarization. But that's moving the polling average from Biden+9.5 to Biden +9 or +8.5, not down to Biden +7 or something closer. I think that the vast, vast majority of voters have made up their mind, and the 4% or so who are undecided will not move decisively for anybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varysblackfyre321 Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 15 minutes ago, Maithanet said: Polling of who the remaining undecided voters are in 2020 found that they were disproportionately younger voters, and disproportionately Latin But what about in swing states? Pennsylvania, Michigan, etc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 28 minutes ago, karaddin said: Then you underappreciate his dry humor On the contrary, that's why I found it so funny. On the undecideds discussion, the fact is virtually all undecideds this late in the race do not like either candidate. And the fact is in this cycle, respondents that don't like either Biden or Trump tend to break for Biden. Now, I do think that has to be counterbalanced a bit for Trump supporters that just don't want to admit it yet - albeit that's a gut feeling. Overall, 538 has the race at this moment 52.1 to 42.3, leaving 5.6 undecided. Let's say 1.5% vote 3rd party - that's about in line with the two Obama elections. If I was a betting man, I'd put the rest of the undecideds breaking so it's 54-44.5 if the aggregate average stayed at where it is today. Of course, I do not expect it to stay at what it is today, rather I think Trump probably gets within 8-9 points in the next week and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said: But what about in swing states? Pennsylvania, Michigan, etc? I haven't seen that data broken out by swing states. But I would imagine the "younger" thing holds true across the country. In addition, remember that a big reason that the 2016 undecideds went with Trump so decisively was that the group was notably conservative, with so many people turned off by Trump in the primary. In 2020, it is not (if anything, it is slightly liberal, with a few disproportionate number of progressives who find Biden too squishy). And I'm not arguing that the undecideds will break for Biden. I just think everything I've read indicates they are not a Trump friendly group, and the chance of them breaking towards Trump 2 to 1 (like in 2016) is very low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ran Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 8 minutes ago, DMC said: , rather I think Trump probably gets within 8-9 points in the next week and a half. I was listening to the 538 post-debate podcast and Nate Silver noted that their own forecast certainly expected a point of tightening to better align state and national polling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ran said: I was listening to the 538 post-debate podcast and Nate Silver noted that their own forecast certainly expected a point of tightening to better align state and national polling. OTOH, the national polls are in line with the various (mostly internal) district polling out there. Could just as easily be an improvement in the states polls to match that, rather than a tightening in the national polls. Or, it could be there will always be a gap between the national and state polls because Biden is going to do exceptionally well in red states that he won't win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DireWolfSpirit Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 2 hours ago, Gaston de Foix said: This mystifies me. Bernie is a leader of the party from the left and also an important Senate vote. To join Biden's cabinet as labor secretary will be trading away a lot of power and influence for having to hew the WH line. Obama appointed so many talented politicians to his cabinet: Sebelius, Napolitano, Salazar. They served well, but they would have helped him much more in their home states. I think Vermont is a safe seat from falling into (R) hands so no worries that way. And besides this is something Sanders himself has hinted he wants. I trust Sanders would be a strong advocate at Labor. I liked the way Robert Reich comported himself in that position as a outspoken leader for workers issues. I could see Bernie leading similarly, time for a strong figure at Labor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JGP Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 13 minutes ago, Maithanet said: I haven't seen that data broken out by swing states. But I would imagine the "younger" thing holds true across the country. In addition, remember that a big reason that the 2016 undecideds went with Trump so decisively was that the group was notably conservative, with so many people turned off by Trump in the primary. In 2020, it is not (if anything, it is slightly liberal, with a few disproportionate number of progressives who find Biden too squishy). And I'm not arguing that the undecideds will break for Biden. I just think everything I've read indicates they are not a Trump friendly group, and the chance of them breaking towards Trump 2 to 1 (like in 2016) is very low. This. The Fracking and Iran bits won't help with those more progressive, but unlike 2016 where they either didn't vote, or voted for Trump because they hated Corporate Shill Foreign Policy Hawk Hilary [let's call them Sarandon assholes] and wanted to burnination like Strongbad, they'll hold their noses and largely vote for Biden. Like I said, it's over. The point spread isn't close enough for the various methods of vote tampering to fudge, and honestly, Trump's comments during the immigration portion of the debate were so obscene and/or ridiculous I feel relatively confident he might've lost LatinX voters [without getting into the undecideds] in particular, and possibly even cut into his Cuban support [thinking namely Florida here, but there are other states where these demographics aren't unimportant] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DireWolfSpirit Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 1 hour ago, DMC said: Now, I do think that has to be counterbalanced a bit for Trump supporters that just don't want to admit it yet - albeit that's a gut feeling. The're like religious people that claim they used to be atheists, they were always religious but just didn't want to admit it imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 8 minutes ago, JEORDHl said: and possibly even cut into his Cuban support [thinking namely Florida here, but there are other states where these demographics aren't unimportant] Florida Cubans make up 65% of all Cuban voters. After Florida, the next four states with the largest populations of Cubans are California, New Jersey, Texas, and New York. Obviously their vote, like any other's, isn't going to change three of those states. In Texas the Cuban population accounts for 0.3 percent of the overall population. The only other state where the Cuban population is over 0.4 percent is Nevada at 1.1 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JGP Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 True enough, but 'possibly even' Cubans when in 'particular' I was referring more to the LatinX. Qualifiers, yo. :p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sifth Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 Alright, I saw the movie just a few minutes ago. It wasn't that bad and the woman clearly doesn't look 15 and it's never stated that she was to Giuliani; I think she's actually 24 or something like that. That being said, he was clearly trying to get it on with her, that part is real. For the record I despise Trump, think Giuliani is a crazy person and voted for Biden last week. This really is just a punk'd moment and little else. This comes off as creepy more then anything, IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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