Given how big TWOW will be should it be released in two volumes?

[sifth]

I wonder if we should take guesses on what plot line GRRM is having trouble with. My guess is the stuff at the Wall.

[The Bard of Banefort]

14 minutes ago, sifth said:

I wonder if we should take guesses on what plot line GRRM is having trouble with. My guess is the stuff at the Wall.

Probably Daenerys

[Casso, King of the Seals]

I'm curious about others' input here.

When I play the clip, I hear George saying "I have like eleven hundred pages written but I still have hundred more pages to... to go", hence my hypothesis about him talking about printed pages as opposed to manuscript pages and actually demonstrating significant progress over the last year.

Now, an IGN article interprets the same as him not making any progress at all since last December, and quoting him as saying he has "hundreds" more pages to go.

On the one hand I don't hear him say "a hundred" but I definitely don't hear "hundreds".

Any opinions?

[kissdbyfire]

27 minutes ago, Casso, King of the Seals said:

Now, an IGN article interprets the same as him not making any progress at all since last December, and quoting him as saying he has "hundreds" more pages to go.

On the one hand I don't hear him say "a hundred" but I definitely don't hear "hundreds".

Any opinions?

Same here. Though just by not having that crucial "a" before hundred(s) I take this to mean he still has hundreds more pages to go. I'll go w/ that interpretation for now and maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised at some point in the [hopefully] near future, instead of the opposite. 

[Gilbert Green]

1 hour ago, Casso, King of the Seals said:

I'm curious about others' input here.

When I play the clip, I hear George saying "I have like eleven hundred pages written but I still have hundred more pages to... to go", hence my hypothesis about him talking about printed pages as opposed to manuscript pages and actually demonstrating significant progress over the last year.

Now, an IGN article interprets the same as him not making any progress at all since last December, and quoting him as saying he has "hundreds" more pages to go.

On the one hand I don't hear him say "a hundred" but I definitely don't hear "hundreds".

Any opinions?

I suggest erring on the side of the silent "s".  That way there is a remote chance you will be pleasantly surprised, but at least you won't be disappointed.

If GRRM really had 100 print pages and roughly 150 manuscript pages to go, we'd be hearing alot more pleasant noises from him.

Instead, he comes across as still struggling.

As I read it, his early estimate of maybe 1100, maybe 1200 included very rough material.  That's why it was so vague.  But his current estimate covers material that is in a somewhat more completed state.  So he states, more definitely and with less hesitation, that he has 1100 pages.

[The hairy bear]

On 11/17/2023 at 6:52 PM, Casso, King of the Seals said:

Interesting. He says 1,100 done and a hundred to go. Could he be describing printed pages as opposed to manuscript pages?

I'd say this is very unlikely. George has never used printed pages as a reference when giving updates in the past. Even when he was more open about his progress, he always gave the number of manuscript pages. This makes all the sense, since this is the figure he would be familiar with (it's the one that appears in his word processor). Although he may have a rough idea of how many printed pages that would translate to, that would vary and would ultimately depend on the editor.

9 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

As I read it, his early estimate of maybe 1100, maybe 1200 included very rough material.  That's why it was so vague.  But his current estimate covers material that is in a somewhat more completed state.  So he states, more definitely and with less hesitation, that he has 1100 pages.

Yeah, that would be my take too.

In fact, he said that he stopped giving regular updates precisely because of this: people would assume that he has not been working for long periods of time or even going backwards, when the truth is that he is rewriting, scraping and cutting non-stop.

[Casso, King of the Seals]

35 minutes ago, The hairy bear said:

George has never used printed pages as a reference when giving updates in the past. Even when he was more open about his progress, he always gave the number of manuscript pages.

That makes sense.

Someone on Reddit even made an analysis of the sounds from that video to prove that George doesn't say "hundreds".

Anyway, likely he just misspoke and the "steady progress" that he spoke of in July reflects rewriting and polishing.

[kav2001c]

On 11/19/2023 at 12:00 PM, sifth said:

I wonder if we should take guesses on what plot line GRRM is having trouble with. My guess is the stuff at the Wall.

I feel its more likely the stuff out east still despite his fixing the Meerene knot

Dany & Tyrion etc are still a world away from Westeros and (seemingly) no way to put them back in play AND keep a coherent narrative (we all saw the bizarre HBO version lets fly across, lets go mad and toast everyone, lets support Bran since he had the best (unwritten) story of them all)

 

The Wall is (probably) the most fleshed out part of his story since it was (originally) part of the main arc and all the pieces are already on the board

I am sure there are minor issues with Cersei, fAegon, Stannis etc but no way they take years to fix

 

 

[sifth]

1 hour ago, kav2001c said:

I feel its more likely the stuff out east still despite his fixing the Meerene knot

Dany & Tyrion etc are still a world away from Westeros and (seemingly) no way to put them back in play AND keep a coherent narrative (we all saw the bizarre HBO version lets fly across, lets go mad and toast everyone, lets support Bran since he had the best (unwritten) story of them all)

 

The Wall is (probably) the most fleshed out part of his story since it was (originally) part of the main arc and all the pieces are already on the board

I am sure there are minor issues with Cersei, fAegon, Stannis etc but no way they take years to fix

 

 

He's not getting Dany to the West without a time skip. That's clear as day.

[JLE]

He's not getting *any Dothraki army* to the West without a time skip.

Dany can come alone by flying, her dragons are an army in themselves, and they move faster.

But if Dany returns to Meereen... we may assume that with the help of Drogon she can kill Khal Jhaqo and take command there... Then either she will return there *without* Dothraki, at the speed of a flying dragon, or she will return there with them at the speed of the slowest trotting horse in her army. And that's even if you assume she goes directly to Meereen with Jhaqo's khalasar. If she wants to go to Vaes Dothrak to assert dominance there, that'll take weeks or months more.

Meanwhile... Victarion's Iron Fleet lost a third of its strength in even getting to Meereen. Their ships are full. They have, at best, a few thousand men, and no room for more, even if they are all killed and replaced by Dothraki (who cannot sail, and also require room for their horses, and fodder for their horses because the horses cannot live on fish even if Victarion's men can.) The Ironborn ships are not going to take an army of tens of thousands of Dothraki, and tens of thousands of Dothraki horses, back to Westeros, and still arrive there intact - if even Victarion and his skilled sailors lose a third of their number on the way over, how many more would be lost on the way back, of unskilled Dothraki who do not know their way around a ship?

There is a second, larger fleet, on its way to Meereen. The armada of Volantis, which is largely troop transports, hugging the coast (except where it must pass around Valyria) and taking on supplies wherever it can. If the ships were to reach Meereen intact, and were all to be emptied when they get there (e.g. by having their armies slaughtered en masse) but still have the ships themselves survive intact (so the ships must arrive safely and the armies be destroyed in a land battle from which they fail to escape back to their ships), then they *could* conceivably take a Dothraki army back to Westeros... Over the course of weeks or months of slow travel. If they could find enough supplies in Meereen, Astapor and Yunkai to even start the journey and sail far enough to reach the next place they could take on more supplies (possibly New Ghis or Qarth - regardless of whether they acquire said supplies by purchase, or by sacking the city), and if they could there acquire supplies to get them to the next place that they could either buy supplies or at least forage or loot for them. Again, I don't see them making it with the horses as well as the men.

So no... a Dothraki army is not sailing to Westeros from Meereen. Whatever may have been Martin's initial plans, if he has any sense he will have had to abandon that. (Conveniently, Khal Pono and a couple of other leftover Khals from Drogo's original Khalasar are currently raiding the west end of Essos, and could make the shorter hop from the Free Cities if boats were available. Unfortunately all the boats that could take *them* have already been commandeered by the Golden Company.)

If Daenerys manages to command Jhaqo's khalasar, would she give up on Meereen and strike out westwards (along what is described as "the demon road via Mantarys", inland around the *north* of Valyria's remnants), and run into Khal Pono's Dothraki once she gets near the Free Cities? Assuming she then disposes of Pono and commands his men, they still have to cross the Narrow Sea. See the above problem.

I think the biggest thing Martin's going to have to face is that Dothraki are not coming to Westeros. And the Golden Company are her best chance of fulfilling the role that Martin originally planned for the Dothraki, of being "the army that could eventually follow her" - except, thanks to Jon Connington and Tyrion, they're currently supporting the wrong candidate and have jumped there early.

*************************************

How I'd write it:

Jhaqo's Dothraki, now Daenerys's, being led to Meereen. Everything going up in flames there. Victarion, having done a smash-and-grab with the dragon horn, getting control over one dragon, and finding Daenerys not there, has bugged out and is already gone by the time Daenerys returns. Smashing up the Volantene fleet on the way out, as they're coming in. Viccy gets home, only to find that the dragon-horn, and therefore the dragon, answer to Euron, not to him. Victarion dies in a blaze of glory (and dragonfire). Euron has Rhaegal.

Daenerys getting to Meereen to find there are no ships to take her Dothraki army, all three cities are in ruins, Barristan dead, probably Hizdahr dead as well, the place is in chaos, and Rhaegal stolen. And flying on an impulsive chase after her stolen dragon, to Westeros.

Tyrion, somehow surviving, nursing the injured Viserion back to health, managing to tame him... And being there to meet Archmaester Marwyn when the latter arrives, just too late to miss everyone else... Tyrion learns things from Marwyn, possibly about the maesters of Oldtown plotting against magic and dragons. And takes off after Daenerys on Viserion... Meereen is left behind at last, in ruins. Perhaps Kandaq Shavepate will be able to impose order. Perhaps not. Who cares any more. Let Essos look after itself, we're bugging outta here too. And nobody cares about what Khal Pono does to the Pentos, Braavos or the Free Cities either. Westeros is where we're returning.

Fake Aegon declaring himself, believing himself to be the real thing, being hailed as the real thing... Only to meet the very real Daenerys. She has a very real dragon (Drogon). He does not. Aegon does not survive the encounter. The Dragon King is dead, long live the Dragon Queen... The Golden Company are now Daenerys's army in Westeros, and they have horses and elephants and enough Westerosi men that they're not *entirely* seen as a foreign invader, and they have Daenerys and a dragon. Half the men in the company had been told they were going to be supporting her claim *anyway*, years ago, before Young "Aegon" showed his face.

Cersei would then have to look to Euron for a possible ally, since she cannot ally with Daenerys... And Euron might be glad of it.

Meanwhile in the north Stannis has beaten the Frey army, received the defection of the Manderlys, and Ramsay has sneaked into his camp in disguise (as a defecting Manderly soldier) to assassinate him and return to Winterfell with his head, the red sword Lightbringer, and whatever else he can grab, with the help of his own allies in the camp (the Karstarks). But the Karstark plot has been discovered: Stannis is pulling off an imposture to fake his death, Ramsay gets the right sword but the wrong man, and escapes with Stannis's own Northern allies wearing Karstark colours, gets back to Winterfell, murders Roose to take control, writes the Pink Letter believing its contents to be true. And gets an almighty surprise when the fake "Karstarks" and Hother Umber's "Umber greybeards" open the gates from the inside when the real Stannis comes calling (with Northern clansmen, Manderlys and "Umber youths" - whose grandfathers have been helping their Stark-loyalist grandsons' cause from the inside.) Ramsay escapes, to cause future chaos. Infighting at the Wall leaves a losing faction to fall back towards Winterfell, along with Stannis's family and Jon's body ("we will not bury a traitor to the Watch here, he was a Stark bastard so take him to Winterfell"), so Stannis gets to meet Shireen again here, and when winter weather closes in, Melisandre demands a sacrifice... "Two kings to wake the dragon": Theon's time has come at last, he dies by the sword... but I would say, the one who goes into the fire should be not Shireen but Stannis himself. Fire and blood... Two kings, albeit uncrowned... And the Bastard Dragon (Jon Snow) rises from the dead? To face off against Ramsay and Dreadfort reinforcements in a Battle of the Bastards?

Not sure where I would go from there but it's a better outline already than D&D have written...

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

Apparently, GRRM has written 1100 manuscript pages as of now. In current circumstances, that is good news.

[kav2001c]

Stuff Martin needs to resolve (there is no way it all happens in 2 books imo, no matter how many he kills)

 

Northern Civil War - Stannis vs Roose, the fact both sides have traitors (known and unknown) + potential secret plot

Nights Watch & Warg Jon + Melisandra / Azor prophecies

Beyond the Wall - Bran Tree, 3 Eye Crow, Missing Rangers, Others

Cersei & Margery vs the Faith (& Varys plot)

fAegon + Connington invasion

Dorne + Sandsnakes

Sansa + Littlefinger in the Vale

Jaime - Brienne - Lady Stoneheart

Davos rescue Rickon

Tyrion & Dany out east

 

And thats not even touching on all the less important characters or the big issue of ancestry and rights to rule

We also still have Gendry, Arya, Theon, Bank, Reeds, Loras and so many others where it is not obvious at all where they fit in (esp since HBO end was so odd)

 

So many plots I am sure I am foregtting someone else...

 

Edited November 24, 2023 by kav2001c

[SeanF]

IMHO, Dany can get West pretty quickly by striking a bargain with the Dothraki.  She offers them the treasures of the Yunkish masters, Volantene Old Blood, and other elites, in return for their support.

The Volantene war fleet, under the influence off the Red Clergy, revolts in her favour, triggering off revolution in the city.  Her forces converge on Volantene by land and sea.

Meereen is left under the charge of the Shavepate, with the backing of the companies of freedmen and Brazen Beasts.

[The Bard of Banefort]

5 hours ago, SeanF said:

IMHO, Dany can get West pretty quickly by striking a bargain with the Dothraki.  She offers them the treasures of the Yunkish masters, Volantene Old Blood, and other elites, in return for their support.

The Volantene war fleet, under the influence off the Red Clergy, revolts in her favour, triggering off revolution in the city.  Her forces converge on Volantene by land and sea.

Meereen is left under the charge of the Shavepate, with the backing of the companies of freedmen and Brazen Beasts.

I think the bigger problem is that she can’t get there too quickly. A lot of things need to be in place before Dany arrives.

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

9 hours ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

I think the bigger problem is that she can’t get there too quickly. A lot of things need to be in place before Dany arrives.

GRRM said that Tyrion and Dany will be separated for “most of the book”, so I think it’s safe to say that she will return to Meereen with the Dothraki before going to Westeros.

[Frey family reunion]

On 11/23/2023 at 7:16 AM, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Apparently, GRRM has written 1100 manuscript pages as of now. In current circumstances, that is good news.

Unfortunately every page just repeats, "all work and no play makes George a dull boy".  Oh, and occasional scribbles trying to calculate future royalty checks from HBO.

[The Bard of Banefort]

I find it interesting that George mentions TWOW and ASOIAF separately when talking about when he met with his publisher. It’s not enough to give me hope, but it could suggest that he’s working on some more supplementary material too.

https://georgerrmartin.com/notablog/2023/12/06/a-visit-to-old-blighty/

[Luca]

Call me a summer child, but you know what gives me hope? The play. If its set in the Harrenhall tourney, it should involve things that would spoil Winds of Winter events. If he is aiming for a 2024 release....

[kissdbyfire]

3 hours ago, Luca said:

Call me a summer child, but you know what gives me hope? The play. If its set in the Harrenhall tourney, it should involve things that would spoil Winds of Winter events. If he is aiming for a 2024 release....

Sweet summer child...

[M.Alhazred]

On 10/24/2023 at 6:36 PM, Jaenara Belarys said:

Probably a combination of all of them. He sees the shitshow he's got with all the plotlines and wants to finish his work as it deserves. He's probably thinking about how if he releases it right now, people will be pissed because such and such contrivance or whatever. 

Plus, he's got a bunch of TV projects, F&B 2, Dunk and Egg all on his plate. 

He might get us TWOW, but we will never see Dream. 

I was just gonna say the same thing. I think he may have told his UK publishers that they will get Winds but he's gonna bail on Dream and just give the ending in a updated edition of World.