Covid-19 #39: Shooting the Messenger

[Padraig]

56 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

Good news announced in this morning's papers regarding the Merck/Ridgeback anti-viral Molnupiravir.  It looks like it has real efficacy in improving outcomes, can be administered orally, and looks like it will be available this winter.  

That is very good news.  I was reading about Pfizer's efforts in this area earlier in the week.  I didn't realise that we could see authorisation this year for one of these options.

I do have questions.  Will Americans (say) be more willing to take this than a vaccine?  Presumably?  They seem to be willing to take almost anything once they get COVID.  Interestingly, Merck is is also trialing molnupiravir in a separate global phase 3 study to evaluate its efficacy in preventing the spread of Covid-19 within households, which would be major also.

I wonder about pricing also. Remdesivir is quite expensive but it is administered intravenously.  An oral option is a gamechanger.  And obviously, you don't need as many doses as a vaccine.  But still, price will be important.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/01/merck-to-seek-emergency-authorization-for-oral-covid-19-treatment.html

4 hours ago, RhaenysBee said:

We’ve been stuck between 55-60% for three months. Speak of a dumb population  

That figure is at least a percentage of total population.  The UK is at 66% there.  Not that 59% is good but a 30 point gap would be horrendous.  I don't know how Portugal got up to 85%.

The ECDC is suggesting that countries with COVID-19 vaccination coverage above the current EU average level (63%), and particularly those with the highest current coverage (>75%), in the total population have a lower, manageable risk of experiencing a severe surge of cases, hospitalisations and mortality from now until the end of November 2021, unless there is a rapid decline of vaccine effectiveness due to waning immunity.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/rapid-risk-assessment-assessing-sars-cov-2-circulation-variants-concern

[The Marquis de Leech]

2 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

We're at 92% of the 65+ ~88% of the 50+ (hey that's me!) single jabbed. So the most vulnerable age demo is pretty much vaxed for those who have the choice to be vaxed and took it. What's left over will be those who can't or who refuse. We've still got to protect the can'ts from the c... so the other age demos need to catch up.

Which is derived from the vaccination rate and the vulnerability to hospitalisation and death of those not vaxed. So it still comes back to vaccination as the most important factor.

Other factors being the season, the prevailance of masks, social distancing (or the lack thereof), lockdowns (or the lack thereof), the general age of the population, the ability of the health system in a given area to cope, border controls, and sheer dumb luck. Fully vaccinated elderly people are still extremely vulnerable.

The major issue with New Zealand's vaccination rates is younger Maori, in Northland and the Bay of Plenty. Older Maori, Maori in Wellington and the South Island, and Pasifika are fine, but they are not. 

[RhaenysBee]

3 hours ago, Padraig said:

 

That figure is at least a percentage of total population.  The UK is at 66% there.  Not that 59% is good but a 30 point gap would be horrendous.  I don't know how Portugal got up to 85%.

The ECDC is suggesting that countries with COVID-19 vaccination coverage above the current EU average level (63%), and particularly those with the highest current coverage (>75%), in the total population have a lower, manageable risk of experiencing a severe surge of cases, hospitalisations and mortality from now until the end of November 2021, unless there is a rapid decline of vaccine effectiveness due to waning immunity.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/rapid-risk-assessment-assessing-sars-cov-2-circulation-variants-concern

I mean it’s still an utter mystery to me how delta hasn’t decimated us yet. The vaccination rate is not that good, there are virtually no restrictions in place and several neighboring countries are experiencing quite severe surges, while our curve is still shockingly flat. Now this can be due to little testing but sewage samples still reaffirm that the increase is mild and slow.

The one thing that makes sense is that the central part of the country - aka the capital and the central county surrounding it - has a moderate level of covid particles that has been stagnating for weeks. This is in line with the capital’s chiefly youthful and progressive population who are the demographic most willing to vaccinate. I have no data on the vaccination rate in central Hungary or even in the capital, but I bet it’s significantly higher than the country average. So I suppose vaccination does have a positive impact after all. 

I don’t know if other European countries experienced this, but a lot of people have been ill in the past weeks - not with covid. Loads of people I know had fever, coughs, sore throats, runny noses and negative PCRs. Nobody really knows if it’s a cold virus or regular flu or bacterial infection, but that’s really the thing that’s been going around instead of delta. Weird. 

[Which Tyler]

2 hours ago, The Marquis de Leech said:

Other factors being the season, the prevailance of masks, social distancing (or the lack thereof), lockdowns (or the lack thereof), the general age of the population, the ability of the health system in a given area to cope, border controls, and sheer dumb luck. Fully vaccinated elderly people are still extremely vulnerable.

Worth re-iterating for truth.
I can't remember where I saw it (I think medical journal, but don't quote me on that), but when looking at risk factors, being double vaccinated reduces your risk by about the same as being 20 years younger. So a fully vaccinated 80 year old runs about the same risk as an unvaccinated 60 year old

[Padraig]

46 minutes ago, RhaenysBee said:

I mean it’s still an utter mystery to me how delta hasn’t decimated us yet.

I think we have been talking about this for the last 3 months!  Lots of countries were similar to Hungary initially but fell away (very badly in some cases).  But Hungary, Czech Republic and Poland have only marginally disimproved.  Hope it continues!

And yes, i've heard of people getting other ailments more recently also.  That's what human contact does I suppose!

48 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

I can't remember where I saw it (I think medical journal, but don't quote me on that), but when looking at risk factors, being double vaccinated reduces your risk by about the same as being 20 years younger. So a fully vaccinated 80 year old runs about the same risk as an unvaccinated 60 year old

It was linked earlier.  I think by Zorral.

One of the reasons people think that Moderna is better than Pfizer is because its dose is 100mg compared to Pfizer's 30mg.  Probably not unrelated to that, Ontario is now recommending Pfizer to male 18-24 year olds because of a higher likelihood of (non-fatal) myocarditis in those that get Moderna.

https://torontosun.com/news/provincial/ontario-now-recommending-against-moderna-vaccine-for-men-18-24-years-old

Axios is questioning how fast Moderna will get approval in the US because of a lack of documentation (Pfizer got a lot of data from Israel but Moderna doesn't have a similar country available).  I still think it has to happen in October.

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-vaccines-boosters-moderna-pfizer-data-9cdeffe9-e921-41ef-a34f-7ce88645ea9c.html

[Clueless Northman]

2 hours ago, RhaenysBee said:

I don’t know if other European countries experienced this, but a lot of people have been ill in the past weeks - not with covid. Loads of people I know had fever, coughs, sore throats, runny noses and negative PCRs. Nobody really knows if it’s a cold virus or regular flu or bacterial infection, but that’s really the thing that’s been going around instead of delta. Weird. 

A coworker's entire household got sick 3 weeks ago. Another one got a very nasty cough and sore throat a couple of weeks earlier. All negatives. Since weather hasn't been as hellishly hot and sunny as it can be during European summer, odds are that all these bugs that usually hit is in late autumn and winter came back with a vengeance when restrictions were lifted, people saw each other more often due to being vaccinated, and shitty weather helped a lot. Hopefully, it means the real bad and cold season won't be too bad.

 

2 hours ago, Which Tyler said:

I can't remember where I saw it (I think medical journal, but don't quote me on that), but when looking at risk factors, being double vaccinated reduces your risk by about the same as being 20 years younger. So a fully vaccinated 80 year old runs about the same risk as an unvaccinated 60 year old

Thing is, covid globally increases your risk of death, at least if you're an adult, and that increase seems to be fairly stable and linear: let's say 50% increase if you're 40 and 51% if you're 85. Vaccines merely reduce that increased risk of death, and it's logical they reduce it globally at the same rate. And it's obvious an 80-y old is more at risk of dying in the next year than a 60-y old.

[Ormond]

I don't know if this has ever been mentioned on these threads before, but I have just found out that persons diagnosed with schizophrenia or related disorders are three times more likely to die when they catch Covid-19 than average. I would have expected people with schizophrenia to be more likely to catch Covid because their problems with cognition should make it harder for them to follow doctor's advice on anything, but didn't expect them to have so much higher mortality when they did contract it. But schizophrenics should evidently be considered a "high risk group" in terms of Covid and their physicians and psychotherapists should especially encourage them to get vaccinated.

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/959884?spon=12&uac=343908DK&impID=3679715&sso=true&faf=1&src=WNL_mdpls_211001_mscpedit_psych

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

I heard a statistic today on NPR, but I couldn't verify it and I'm curious if anyone has seen it. On A1's U.S. Domestic News Roundup one reporter said that companies that are mandating their employees be vaccinated and reporting their data are on average finding that over 90% of their employees are now vaccinated. If that's true I think it's safe to say that mandates work when compared to the general populous. 

[The Anti-Targ]

The govt is losing its grip on Auckland. The police say it will take action on lockdown breaches, but only after thousands of people have congregated at a protest, many not following the lockdown rules, and thus after any super-spreading has occurred. 66% of Aucklanders support continued lockdown until a vaccination target has been met, but that means about 400,000 people who don't agree, and clearly a few thousand who are willing to do something about it. You either stop risky behaviour before it happens, or you don't basically give up on having any kind of control. I was not in favour of level 2+ in Auckland happening on Monday, but it seems like the govt won't be able to keep level 3 going with any kind of effectiveness, so they might as well recognise that reality and loosen up but implement vaccination passports to go to any bars, restaurants etc.

12 hours ago, The Marquis de Leech said:

Other factors being the season, the prevailance of masks, social distancing (or the lack thereof), lockdowns (or the lack thereof), the general age of the population, the ability of the health system in a given area to cope, border controls, and sheer dumb luck. Fully vaccinated elderly people are still extremely vulnerable.

The major issue with New Zealand's vaccination rates is younger Maori, in Northland and the Bay of Plenty. Older Maori, Maori in Wellington and the South Island, and Pasifika are fine, but they are not. 

Like I said, vaccination is the most important factor, and it is the factor that will largely influence whether lockdowns continue to be used, what the border control settings will be, the extent of mask mandates and social distancing requirements.

The protest not being a super-spreading event will definitely be dumb luck.

 

[The Marquis de Leech]

Level 3 protects the 95% of Aucklanders (who are obeying the rules, even if they don't like them) from the 5% of muppets. Protecting the majority has to be the priority.

The outbreak cases are also skewing increasingly Maori - some 40% of active cases, in a city where only 11% are Maori. The outbreak has been largely flushed out of the Pacific Island community at this point - and it is extremely noticeable that Pasifika have much, much better vaccine rates than Maori. 

[ithanos]

Disheartening to see the numbers who turned out for that protest. Expect a rise in cases from this group in about a week, if they even bother getting tested at the earliest symptom instead of presenting to a hospital to getting confirmed later. I'd like to think healthcare could be withheld for those putting themselves and the wider community at risk....  but that's an inhumane thought in an emotive response. 

[DireWolfSpirit]

27 minutes ago, ithanos said:

I'd like to think healthcare could be withheld for those putting themselves and the wider community at risk....  but that's an inhumane thought in an emotive response. 

Debatable really.

We're a mass shooter putting the community at risk, we don't consider it inhumane to retaliate and stop them, even lethally if needed.

[The Anti-Targ]

We have a public healthcare system and a private one. There are plenty of people who think if an unvaxed person needs in-patient care for COVID-19 they should be shunted off to a private facility and have to pay out of pocket / through insurance. But I am sure insurance companies are going to explicitly exclude people from COVID-19 coverage if they have not been vaccinated,

6 hours ago, The Marquis de Leech said:

Level 3 protects the 95% of Aucklanders (who are obeying the rules, even if they don't like them) from the 5% of muppets. Protecting the majority has to be the priority.

The outbreak cases are also skewing increasingly Maori - some 40% of active cases, in a city where only 11% are Maori. The outbreak has been largely flushed out of the Pacific Island community at this point - and it is extremely noticeable that Pasifika have much, much better vaccine rates than Maori. 

The problem is the 5% of muppets are going to prevent Auckland from ever getting to a rate of infection low enough to safely move out of lockdown. So it's either going to be lockdown for several more weeks while the slowing down vaccination rate eventually gets to a high enough level, which will turn the 5% of muppets into 10%, or it's end lockdown sooner and try as best as possible to dampen the rate of spread.

[HoodedCrow]

@ormond some of the drugs used to control schizophrenia are very rough on the system. ( and bipolar disorder or many mental illnesses). I wonder if it’s that problem.

[Zorral]

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/10/02/world/covid-delta-variant-vaccine#two-studies-suggest-that-newer-variants-of-the-coronavirus-are-better-at-traveling-through-the-air

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/01/health/coronavirus-aerosols-airborne.html

"Two studies suggest that newer variants of the coronavirus are better at traveling through the air."

Quote

....Newer variants of the coronavirus like Alpha and Delta are highly contagious, infecting far more people than the original virus. Two new studies offer a possible explanation: The virus is evolving to spread more efficiently through air....

...the findings signal the need for better masks in some situations, and indicate that the virus is changing in ways that make it more formidable....

....“This is not an Armageddon scenario,” said Vincent Munster, a virologist at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, who led one of the new studies. “It is like a modification of the virus to more efficient transmission, which is something I think we all kind of expected, and we now see it happening in real time.”....

 

[The Anti-Targ]

2 unlinked (as yet) cases outside Auckland, and further away from the boundary than the last time it leaked out. One in a small seaside town our family used to holiday in, and my Mother and her sisters were there for a holiday when the person there was infectious and undetected. They are saying the infectious period for the person dates back to 27 Sept. That is a shit load of time for the person to have been spreading the infection.

A friend who lives in Auckland says her observation is that the level of compliance with the lockdown is a joke. Loads of people out and about and not wearing masks. I think the govt now has to realise that the attempt at elimination is now impossible in practice because the level of public cooperation is inadequate to achieve it, even if the vast majority of people are willing to continue doing what's needed for elimination to work. They will have to change focus.

Fricken outrageous. Another case is a truck driver who crossed the AKL boundary and went to another city. Turns out the truck driver is unvaxed. Unacceptable that the people most likely to bring the virus out of Auckland (delivery drivers) are not required to be vaxed.

[DireWolfSpirit]

I hope we are not in a situation where insurance companies are enabling the unvaxxed? They should absolutely be being refused coverage of any covid illnesses at this point. Similar to the coverage rules towards suicide or knowingly building in floodzone or any of the other fine print cases where insurance gets out of paying up.

At least in this instance (not covering covid expenses) it would be for the communities greater good and not enabling potential poison spreaders (the unvaxxed).

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

On 10/1/2021 at 11:32 AM, RhaenysBee said:

I mean it’s still an utter mystery to me how delta hasn’t decimated us yet.

What are countries around you doing?

On 10/1/2021 at 12:29 PM, Padraig said:

I think we have been talking about this for the last 3 months!  Lots of countries were similar to Hungary initially but fell away (very badly in some cases).  But Hungary, Czech Republic and Poland have only marginally disimproved.  Hope it continues!

Except it won't. If past outbreaks have sought us anything, it's only a matter of time. It took half a year before North and South Dakota had a serious outbreak. Look at what's happening in Alaska right now.  

[The Anti-Targ]

Ugh, my work colleague's ex who is the father of her children has brainwashed their kids into refusing to get the jab. I hope schools mandate it or require twice weekly testing, with the up the nose swab. That will get most kids lining up for the shot.

[RhaenysBee]

6 hours ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

What are countries around you doing?

In terms of measures? No idea. I know that the Ukraine and Romania have terrible stats. Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia have similarish numbers as we do.